Zipser - input2012

Significance of the regional policy
towards the climate change dangers
Wawrzyniec Zipser
Department of Spatial Planning

Introduction to the problem and questions

• Projected climate change up until 2050 will affect many aspects of life and
introduce largely negative changes
• The most noticeable effects of these changes are expected in the low-lying
coastal areas, exposed to the risks associated with the rise of the ocean
levels and temperatures
• Proposed actions should be considered that could prepare or transform
the most vulnerable, primarily urban areas (FUA)
• The most suited region for the study is the Asian continent, experiencing a
great economic growth along with an increasing pressure of urbanization
and migration to the coastal areas

• How to prevent the risks and what resources to use in
preparing a strategic development scenarios?

2
Significance of the regional policy towards the climate change dangers. W. Zipser, Wrocław Univ. of Technology

Why the Far East?

Source: World Development Bank, Report 2009
3

The proposed approach

• Most of the research and analysis of the regions or metropolitan areas
vulnerable to climate change has focused only on the areas directly
threatened by the effects of global warming. It seems that given the
difficulties in determining patterns of human behavior, their spontaneous
adaptability in the face of threats, it should also be attempted to identify
alternatives, such as preparation to migrate populations and production
resources to safe or at least less vulnerable areas.
• The proposed approach is to use modeling tools to determine potential
substitutional scenarios, which can be used to identify the most favorable
actions in the framework of a regional spatial policy.

4

The recommended methodology requires:

• a differentiated approach in determining the reception of the risks and the
impact of the climate depending on the sensitivity of the test area. That
concerns mainly the alternative areas, where the variable climatic factors
may have different characteristics than in the coastal areas (droughts,
landslides, local flooding, etc.).
• a comparison of vulnerable areas with the summary maps of land use,
population change (density) and forecast valuation of damage to the
structure (satellite images, GIS mapping). At this stage predictive tests are
recommended, which would aim to anticipate demographic developments
and determine the most probable and attractive areas that would be able
to take over some of the functions and roles of the endangered cities.
Previously made assessment of vulnerable areas will help to esƟmate the
capacity that must be taken into account in allocational modeling.
• the last stage will consist of multivariate analyses focusing on the
effectiveness of implementation of various scenarios in terms of
economic, social and the geopolitical context
5

Modelling the urbanization process

The following definition of urbanization is proposed here:
Urbanization is the state of arranged space characterized by:
• Achievement of a suitable degree of probability of contacts resulting from
the leading pattern of needs accepted by a given civilization.
• Achievement of balance understood as the conformability between the
optimal or indispensable number of contacts for a particular element and
the number of contacts it actually realizes.
• High degree of spatial freedom of the origins and destinations of contacts,
which means that their locations in space are not strongly determined but
depend on both conditions mentioned above.
The nature of these factors suggests that the intervening opportunities
model would be the most adequate to look for a relatively simple but
sufficiently comprehensive tool for modeling the contacts that are
responsible for the emerging of an urbanized structure
6

Identification of the threatened areas

The modeling covered the part of
Asia east of the Strait of Malacca.
This area includes 155 cities –
Functional Urban Areas, whose
population exceeds 300,000
inhabitants.
Topographic analysis of the
functional areas (Spatial Analyst),
based on the Global Digital
Elevation Model - GTOPO30 raster.

• Identification of the areas of 0-2
meters above the sea level as
those at risk of periodic flooding
due to rising sea levels

7

Allocation simulation -
intervening opportunities

8

Expected migratory flows between cities
(origin – destination flows)
Depending on the parameters used, especially the most important: selectivity, the relationships
change, indicating the direction and intensity of a takeover and role replacement of threatened
cities by other regional players

9

Expected migratory flows between cities in
selected sectors
(origin – destination flows)

10

Conclusions
• The simulation proposed herein should be regarded as a low-cost opportunity to test
various scenarios, taking advantage of the high performance compatibility with the real
city-formation processes. With some effort and further refinement of selected
parameters, such as a pattern of behavior (selectivity) in particular regions or mainly the
capacity of the alternative areas (cities’ ability to ensure physical and functional support
for new residents) and while taking into account true to actual results achieved thanks to
the indirect model, planning activities may be undertaken that will anticipate changes in
the settlement environment and avert preventable tragedies.
• Of course, the test phase is only a part of the required procedures for the assessment of
particular solutions and must be supported with interdisciplinary research. Only such an
analysis may define specific policy for individual cities and a sequence of solutions, such
as construction of sea embankments, works on inland water retention system, an early
warning system or development of entirely new areas not exposed to climate change
over the next 100 years.
• In many of these cases, social costs affecting mostly the poor and the most vulnerable
will be incurred anyway. Scenario testing can help protect them instead of exposing them
to greatest losses. It may serve as a tool to assist in the selection of the most efficient and
functional solutions, for example rearranging of the spatial structure of cities with whole
metropolitan surrounding. Technology is not necessarily the only remedy against threats.

11

Significance of the regional policy
towards the climate change dangers

Thank you for your attention

Wawrzyniec Zipser
wawrzyniec.zipser@pwr.wroc.pl

Zipser - input2012

More Related Content

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked (9)

Similar to Zipser - input2012 (20)

More from INPUT 2012 (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

Zipser - input2012