Migration transition model -
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The Zelinsky Model of Mobility Transition outlines 5 phases of population migration patterns within societies: Phase 1 is pre-urbanization with little migration and stable population. Phase 2 sees massive rural-to-urban migration during industrialization and rapid population growth. Phase 3 is characterized by declining rural-urban migration and increasing urban-urban movement. Phase 4 further reduces rural-urban shifts while intra-urban migration rises within an elaborate metropolitan network. Phase 5 predicts nearly all migration will be intra-urban with stable low fertility and mortality rates.
Migration transition model -
- 1. Zelinsky Model of Mobility Transition • Closely resembles Demographic Transition Model • Check out the relationship between population growth and population migration
- 2. Phase one (“Premodern traditional society”): This is before the onset of the urbanisation, and there is very little migration. Natural increase rates are about zero. Phase two (“Early transitional society”): There is “massive movement from countryside to cities... as a community experiences the process of modernisation”. There is “rapid rate of natural increase”. Phase three (“Late transitional society”): This phase corresponds to the “critical rung...of the mobility transition” where urban-to-urban migration surpasses the ruralto- urban migration, where rural-to- urban migration “continues but at waning absolute or relative rates”, and a “complex migrational and circulatory movements within the urban network, from city to city or within a single metropolitan region” increased, non-economic migration and circulation began to emerge.
- 3. Phase four (“Advanced society”): The “movement from countryside to city continues but is further reduced in absolute and relative terms, vigorous movement of migrants from city to city and within individual urban agglomerations...especially within a highly elaborated lattice of major and minor metropolises” is observed. There is “slight to moderate rate of natural increase or none at all”. Phase five (“Future superadvanced society”): “Nearly all residential migration may be of the interurban and intraurban variety….No plausible predictions of fertility behaviour,...a stable mortality pattern slightly below present levels”.