Smart Grids: Risks & Opportunities
- 2. IIIImmmmppppoooorrrrttttaaaannnntttt ggggrrrroooowwwwtttthhhh iiiinnnn iiiinnnnffffoooorrrrmmmmaaaattttiiiioooonnnn fffflllloooowwwwssss NNNNeeeewwww eeeelllleeeemmmmeeeennnnttttssss Smart Distributed Generation metering storage Distributed generation Transport & Distribution Demand
- 3. Distributed storage Smart metering Distributed generation High frequency consumption measuring (~6’’ intervals). Need to manage high volumes of information (Big Data approach) Enables demand management Enables consumer’s electric appliances identification (load signature)
- 4. Smart metering Solar PV: Competitive by 2020 (Grid Parity ) Relevant for supply of individual homes Distributed storage Distributed generation Capture of high share of future demand growth
- 5. PPPPoooossssiiiittttiiiivvvveeee ffffeeeeeeeeddddbbbbaaaacccckkkk lllloooooooopppp Distributed generation storage Smart metering Distributed storage Distributed generation Higher TD operational costs Lower customer base to share costs Higher competitive-ness of self consumption Higher retail cost per customer
- 6. Smart metering Distributed storage Distributed generation Evolution driven by different industries, such as electric vehicles. Competitive in the beginning of next decade With distributed generation, allows for self-sufficiency Drives changes of demand curve shape. Reduces uses of peak shaving plants
- 7. HHHHiiiigggghhhh vvvvaaaalllluuuueeee iiiinnnn nnnneeeewwww sssseeeeggggmmmmeeeennnnttttssss Distr. Generation Today Evolution Services retail Metering Distribition Transport Generation
- 8. Need of Transport and Distribution networks upgrading… Allow for multidirectional flows Smart control systems … having a small or even negative demand growth Due to self-consumption and higher efficiencies
- 9. PPPPllllaaaayyyyeeeerrrr SSSSeeeeccccttttoooorrrr na Data management CCoonnssuummeerr sseerrvviicceess Smart meters Retail Solar panel installation, financing and management
- 10. RRRRiiiisssskkkkssss OOOOppppppppoooorrrrttttuuuunnnniiiittttiiiieeeessss Falling cost of capital for new players: • Leasing • Crowdfunding + VC • Low interest rates High size and low cost of capital CCoonnssuummeerr vvss.. ccoonnnneeccttiinngg Experience in services and point financing Low level of I+D Customer base New players with experience Presence in whole value in other businesses chain. Potential synergies Cross subsidies in regulated costs Network upgrading
- 11. Utilities face a revolution as deep as the one telecommunications faced in the last two decades Trend towards datification of business and leisure Domotics and the internet of things will give consumers high control over their consumption More widely, information flows allow for a higher integration of all kind of services (smartcities)
- 12. Utilities need to capitalize their current advantages before they erode. Even if that means hurting current businesses Early positioning (joint ventures, start-up support) may be done at a small cost, compared to the impact of not acting
- 13. 200 150 100 50 0 EU exchange index IBEX CAC DAX 250 200 150 100 50 0 Share price GNF Iberdrola GSZ EON RWE 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Market value GNF Iberdrola GSZ EON RWE Germany is pioneering distributed energy penetration. It’s utilities have lost an important share of value compared to European peers.
- 14. RRRReeeessssoooouuuurrrrcccceeee RRRReeeevvvvoooolllluuuuttttiiiioooonnnn Heck, Rogers y Carroll, Abril 2014 RRRReeeettttaaaaiiiillll EEEEnnnneeeerrrrggggyyyy Brock, Lehrke, Saleh y Yousif. BCG Perspectives, Junio 2014 DDDDDDDDiiiiiiiissssssssttttttttrrrrrrrriiiiiiiibbbbbbbbuuuuuuuutttttttteeeeeeeedddddddd EEEEEEEEnnnnnnnneeeeeeeerrrrrrrrggggggggyyyyyyyy:::::::: AAAAAAAA ddddddddiiiiiiiissssssssrrrrrrrruuuuuuuuppppppppttttttttiiiiiiiivvvvvvvveeeeeeee ffffffffoooooooorrrrrrrrcccccccceeeeeeee Bake, Maciel, Dean, Sesahdri y Gee. BCG Perspectives, Julio 2014 TTTThhhheeee ddddiiiissssrrrruuuuppppttttiiiivvvveeee ppppooootttteeeennnnttttiiiiaaaallll ooooffff ssssoooollllaaaarrrr ppppoooowwwweeeerrrr Frankel, Ostrowski y Pinner. McKinsey Quarterly, Abril 2014 GGGGrrrriiiidddd EEEEnnnneeeerrrrggggyyyy SSSSttttoooorrrraaaaggggeeee U.S. Department of Energy, Diciembre 2013