Stop asking WHEN?
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This document discusses the problems with estimation and focusing too much on timelines. It argues that estimates will always be inaccurate due to randomness and variability. Instead of focusing on estimates, the document suggests discussing capacity and scope, and continuously improving capacity while minimizing work. The overall message is to stop asking "when?" and to stop relying on estimates, as accuracy can never be guaranteed.
![DEADLINE
(over there)YOU RELEASE
* procrastination is [TBD]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2013-10-agileee5-131007115851-phpapp02/85/Stop-asking-WHEN-79-320.jpg)
Stop asking WHEN?
- 1. JUST STOP ASKING «WHEN?» it is the time to stop the slavery krivitsky@scrumguides.com @alexeykri
- 2. I’m one of the scrum guides
- 3. … when I am not coaching
- 4. BUSINESS HAS ITS WANTS WE ESTIMATE WE FAIL MAKING PROMISES BUSINESS STARTS TO PUSH
- 5. THE VICIOUS CICLE BUSINESS HAS ITS WANTS WE ESTIMATE WE FAIL MAKING PROMISES BUSINESS STARTS TO PUSH UNDER PRESSURE WE ESTIMATE WORSE WE FAIL AGAIN BUSINESS PUSHES HARDER
- 6. A TYPICAL PROJECT … #NOESTIMATES we should have multiplied by 2x….
- 13. *CHAOSREPORT от Standish Group Statistically a software development project will take x2.0 MONEY x1.6 TIME
- 14. we’re good a solving simple tasks!
- 16. 1. BOTH ITEMS COST $1,10 2. THE BAT IS ONE DOLLAR MORE EXPENSIVE HOW MUCH DOES THE BALL COST?
- 17. we’re good a solving simple tasks… NOT!
- 23. The “software” of our brain is buggy.
- 26. DON’T READ THIS TEXT AND DON’T CALCULATE 3x3 = ?
- 33. 3x3 = THIS IS DONE BY YOUR «RABBIT» abc def
- 34. “How much time will this feature take?” 2 days
- 35. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? 2 days
- 36. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? 2 days
- 37. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? How good is the spec? 2 days
- 38. “How much time will this feature take?” How much time do I have? How do I feel about it? How good is the spec?How much time will they allow me? 2 days
- 40. SOMETIMES FAST DECISIONS ARE GOOD
- 41. THE RABBIT IS ALSO GOOD AT
- 42. HOW MUCH IS 17x38 ?
- 44. WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?
- 45. MCMLXXXIV good food:) WHAT KILLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE?
- 46. “INTUITION” fast decisions low energy consumption huge energy consumption RABBIT vs. TURTLE “LOGIC” complex stuff
- 47. RABBIT vs. TURTLE 2 WHEN YOU’RE ESTIMATING WHICH SYSTEM IS ENGAGED?
- 48. How old was Mahatma Gandhi when he died?
- 49. 2. How old was he when he died? 1a. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1b. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died?
- 50. 1a. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1b. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died? 83 average 68 average
- 51. MEET LUCY. SHE IS SHOCKED.
- 53. LUCY. SHOCKED.
- 55. THE LAWS OF NATURE WORK AGAINST YOU
- 63. Early completion gets lost Delays get accumulated Eliyahu M. Goldratt – suggested buffers
- 65. time probability 1 THE ESTIMATES WE ARTICULATE ARE THE EARLIEST PROBABLE TIME
- 69. KRIVITSKY’s zapadLAW IT IS SO MUCH EASIER TO BE LATE THAN TO COME EARLIER
- 73. BUT THE CORE PROBLEM IS NOT IN ESTIMATIONS AND THEIR INNACURACY RANDOMNESS
- 79. DEADLINE (over there)YOU RELEASE * procrastination is [TBD]
- 82. 83 average 68 average 1. Was Gandhi less than 100 years old when he died? 1. Was Gandhi less more than 60 years old when he died? AVERAGE FOR ALL is 76 THE RIGHT ANSWER is 78 !
- 85. as a user blah… given when then foo…
- 95. спринты This is REALITY. and POSSIBILITIES.
- 97. forget all slides above…
- 98. forget all slides above… and remember 3 advices
- 99. STOP FOCUSING ON ESTIMATIONS AND ACCURACY (as they will always suck) #1
- 100. #2 START HAVING DISCUSSIONS AROUND YOUR CAPACITY AND SCOPE
- 101. #3 (in parallel) CONTINUOUSLY FOCUS ON IMPROVING YOUR CAPACITY AND MINIMIZING THE WORK TO BE DONE
- 102. JUST STOP ASKING «WHEN?» it is the time to stop the slavery krivitsky@scrumguides.com @alexeykri