9411-1.doc

Course: Population Studies (9411)
Semester: Spring, 2021
ASSIGNMENT No. 1
Q. 1 Define demography. What is scope of demography?
The word ‘Demography’ is a combination of two Greek words, ‘Demos’ meaning people and ‘Graphy’ meaning
science. Thus demography is the science of people. In the middle of the nineteenth century in 1855, the word
‘Demography’ was first used by a French writer Achille Guillard.
Even though, the term “Population Studies” is more popular, the word ‘Demography’ is under wider use these
days. It is considered an important subject capable of throwing light on the nature of population education.
Since antiquity a number of thinkers have expressed their views on the level of economic development and the
size of population. During the time of Confucius, many Chinese and Greek writers, and following them
Aristotle, Plato and Kautilya (around the year 300 B.C.) have expressed their thoughts on the subject of
population. Thus, as a subject, population education is as old as human civilization.
Writers like William Peterson, Hauser and Duncan consider “Population Studies” and “Demography” to be
different. According to them, ‘Demography’ encompasses limited spheres and it studies only the decisive
factors of population growth, whereas in ‘Population Studies’ besides the social, economic, geographical,
political and biological aspects of population, their ensuing relationships are also studied.
Definitions of Demography:
The term demography has been defined both in a narrow and broad sense.
The Oxford Dictionary of Economics defines demography as “The study of the characteristics of human
populations.” According to the UN Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, “Demography is the scientific study
of human populations, primarily with respect to their size, their structure and their development.”
To Barckley, “The numerical portrayal of human population is known as demography.” Similarly, according to
Thomson and Lewis, “The population student is interested in population’s size, composition and distribution;
and in changes in these aspects through time and causes of these changes.”
All these definitions take a narrow view because they emphasise only the quantitative aspects of demography.
Some other writers have defined demography in wide sense by taking the quantitative and qualitative aspects of
population studies.
In this context, according to Hauser and Duncan, “Demography is the study of size, territorial distribution and
composition of population, changes therein, and the components of such changes, which may be identified as
natality, mortality, territorial movement (migration), and social mobility (change of status).”
According to Frank Lorimer, “In broad sense, demography includes both demographic analysis and population
studies. A broad study of demography studies both qualitative and quantitative aspects of population.”
Thus, according to Donald J. Bougue, “Demography is a statistical and mathematical study of the size,
composition, spatial distribution of human population, and of changes overtime in these aspects through the
operation of the five processes of fertility, mortality, marriage, migration and social mobility. Although it

maintains a continuous descriptive and comparative analysis of trends, in each of these processes and in its net
result, its long run goal is to develop a body of theory to explain the events that it charts and compares. ”
These broad definitions take into view not only the size, composition and distribution of population and changes
in them in the long run but also imply human migration and change in the status of population through
education, employment, social status, etc.
Scope of Demography:
The scope of demography is very wide. It includes the subject matter of demography, is it a micro or macro
study? Whether it is a science or art? These are vexed questions about the scope of demography about which
there is no unanimity among writers on demography. We discuss them as under:
1. Subject Matter of Demography:
The subject matter of demography has become very vast in recent years.
The study of demography encompasses the following:
a. Size and Shape of Population:
Generally, the size of population means the total number of persons usually residing in a definite area at a
definite time. The size and shape of population of any region, state or nation are changeable. It is because every
country has its own unique customs, specialities, social-economic conditions, cultural atmosphere, moral
values, and different standards for acceptance of artificial means of family planning and availability of health
facilities, etc.
All these factors affect the size and shape of the population and if these factors are studied with reference to any
area under demography, we can clearly understand the role they play in determining the shape and size of the
population.
b. Aspects Related to Birth Rate and Death Rate:
Birth rate and death rate are the decisive factors that influence the size and shape of the population and therefore
their importance in population studies is crucial. In addition to these, factors like marriage rate, belief regarding
social status and marriage, age of marriage, orthodox customs related to marriage, early marriage and its effects
on the health of the mother and the child, child infanticide rate, maternal death, still birth, resistance power,
level of medical services, availability of nutritious food, purchasing power of the people, etc. also affect the
birth and death rate.
c. Composition and Density of Population:
In the subject matter of demography, the study of composition and density of population is important. In the
composition of population factors like the sex ratio, race wise and age- group wise size of population, the ratio
of rural and urban population, distribution of population according to religion and language, occupational
distribution of population, agricultural and industrial structure and per sq. km. density of population are very
important.

With this type of information regarding the possibilities of development in that particular area, social-economic
problems of the area, problems created due to increase in urban population, and density of population form part
of population studies.
Socio-Economic Problems:
Out of the many problems relating to population growth, the effects of high density due to industrialization in
the urban areas are of more importance as they affect the socio-economic life of the people. Problems like slum
areas, polluted air and water, crime, addiction to liquor, juvenile delinquency, and prostitution, are also
important subjects of study in demography.
Quantitative and Qualitative Aspects:
Along with the quantitative problems of population, the qualitative problems also form part of population
studies. Moreover, the study of demography includes the availability of physicians in the total population,
number of hospitals, the number of beds in hospitals, expectation of life at birth, daily availability of minimum
calories, resistance power, advertisement of family planning programme and its development, the changes
brought in the attitudes of people regarding child birth and adequate medical facility for delivery, etc.
2. Distribution of Population:
Population studies include the following:
(a) How people are distributed among and within continents, world regions and developed and underdeveloped
countries?
(b) How their numbers and proportions change?
(c) What political, social and economic causes bring changes in the distribution of population. Within a country,
it also includes the study of distribution of population in rural and urban areas, fanning and non-farming
communities, working classes, business communities, etc.
Migration plays an important role in the distribution of population and supply of labour. Demography studies
the factors that lead to internal and external migration of people within a country and between countries, the
effects of migration on the migrants and the place where they migrate.
Urbanisation is another factor in the distribution of population within the country. The focus in population
studies is on factors responsible for urbanisation, the problems associated with urbanisation and the solutions
thereto.
Similarly, theories of migration and urbanisation form part of the study of demography.
3. Theoretical Models:
There are vast theoretical aspects of population studies which include the various theories of population
propounded by sociologists, biologists, demographers and economists, and theories of migration and
urbanisation.

4. Practical Aspects:
Practical aspects of population studies relate to the various methods of measuring population changes such as
the census methods, age pyramids, population projections, etc.
5. Population Policy:
Population policy is an important subject of demography especially in the context of developing countries. It
includes policies for population control, and family planning strategies; reproductive health, maternal nutrition
and child health policies; policies for human development of different social groups, etc., and the effects of such
policies on the total population of the country.
6. Micro vs Macro Study:
The true scope of demography relates to whether it is a micro or macro study.
Micro Demography:
Micro demography is the narrow view of population studies. Among others, Hauser and Duncan include the
study of fertility, mortality, distribution, migration, etc. of an individual, a family or group of a particular city or
area or community.
As pointed out by Bogue, “Micro demography is the study of the growth, distribution and redistribution
of the population within community, state, economic area or other local area.” According to the micro
view, demography is primarily concerned with quantative relations of demographic phenomena.
Macro Demography:
A majority of writers take the macro view of population studies and include the qualitative aspects of
demography. To them, demography includes the interrelationships between population and social, economic
and cultural conditions of the country and their effects on population growth.
It studies size, composition and distribution of population, and long run changes in them. Why migrations take
place and what are their effects? What leads to urbanisation and what are its consequences? All these form part
of macro aspects of population studies which also include unemployment, poverty and policies relating to them;
population control and family welfare; and theories of population, migration and urbanisation, etc.
Prof. Bogue explains macro demography as “the mathematical and statistical study of the size, composition, and
spatial distribution of human population and of changes over time in these aspects through the operations of the
five processes of fertility, mortality, marriage, migration and social mobility. It maintains a continuous
descriptive and comparative analysis of trends, in each of these processes and in their net result. Its long run
goal is to develop theories to explain the events that it charts and compares.”
Balanced View:
Writers like Bogue, Lorimer and others favour a balanced view of population studies. They do not believe in
dividing the study of demography into two separate micro and macro divisions.

As pointed out by Lorimer,”A demographer limited to the merely formal treatment of changes in fertility,
mortality and mobility would be in a position like that of a formal chemist observing the compression of
mercury with no information about associated changes in temperature or the constituent of the liquid.”
Therefore, the scope of demography should include both micro and macro aspects of population. According to
Thompson and Lewis, it should relate to fertility, mortality, information about female population, their health,
marital status, distribution and classification of population according to occupation, and collection and study of
information about social and economic condition, and migration of population.
7. Demography as a Science:
Before studying whether demography is a science, it is essential to know what science is and to what extent the
characteristics of science are applicable to demography.
A science is a systematised body of knowledge ascertainable by observation and experimentation. It is a body of
generalisations, principles, theories or laws which traces out a causal relation between cause and effect.
For any discipline to be a science:
(i) It must be a systematised body of knowledge;
(ii) It must have its own laws or theories;
(iii) They can be tested by observation and experimentation;
(iv) They can make predictions;
(v) They can be self-corrective; and
(vi) Have universal validity.
Demography possesses all the above noted elements of a science which can be described as under:
1. It is a systematised body of knowledge in which facts are studied and analysed in a systematic manner.
2. It has its own theories like the Malthusian Theory, the theory of Demographic Transition, etc.
3. These theories have been tested on the basis of observation.
4. Demography can make predictions on the basis of cause and effect relationships. It can predict about changes
in population.
5. Demography is self-corrective in nature. It goes on revising its conclusions in the light of new facts based on
observations.
6. The principles of demography have universal validity as they are applicable to all countries, given the same
conditions.
Thus on all counts, demography is a science. It is not only a positive science of ‘what is’ but also a normative
science of “what ought to be.” It studies the causes and effects of population problems and also suggests policy
measures to solve them.

To conclude with Irene Taeuber, “With improved data, new techniques and precise measurement of the
demographic transition that is occurring, demography has become a science. In fact, it has become an applied
science and applied technology.”
Importance of Demography:
With the majority of developing countries facing population explosion, the study of population and its problems
has become very important in every sphere of an economy.
We discuss them below:
(1) For the Economy:
The study of demography is of immense importance to an economy. Population studies help us to know how far
the growth rate of the economy is keeping pace with the growth rate of population. If population is increasing at
a faster rate, the pace of development of the economy will be slow. The government can undertake appropriate
measures to control the growth of population and to accelerate the development of the economy.
Rapid population growth reduces per capita income, lowers the standard of living, plunges the economy into
mass unemployment and under employment, brings environmental damage and puts a burden on existing social
infrastructure. Population studies highlight these problems of the economy to be solved by the government.
(2) For Society:
Population studies have much importance for the society. When population is increasing rapidly, the society is
faced with innumerable problems. Shortages of basic services like water, electricity, transport and
communications, public health, education, etc. arise.
Along with these, problems of migration and urbanisation are associated with the growing population which
further lead to the law and order problem. Faced with such problems which are the concomitant result of
population growth, the state and non-government social organisations can adopt appropriate measures to solve
them.
(3) For Economic Planning:
Data relating to the present trend in population growth help the planners in formulating policies for the
economic plan of the country. They are kept in view while fixing targets of agricultural and industrial products,
of social and basic services like schools and other educational institutions, hospitals, houses, electricity,
transport, etc.
Population data are also used by the planners to project future trends in fertility and to formulate policy
measures to control the birth rate.
Based on population data, projections are made about the increase in labour force, and the number of people in
the age-groups 1-15 years, 15-50 years and above in order to estimate the labour force available for productive
employment. This, in turn, helps in making estimates regarding employment to be generated during the plan
period.

(4) For Administrators:
Population studies are also useful for administrators who run the government. In under-developed countries,
almost all social and economic problems are associated with the growth of population. The administrator has to
tackle and find solutions to the problems arising from the growth of population. They are migration and
urbanisation which lead to the coming up of shanty towns, pollution, drainage, water, electricity, transport, etc.
in cities.
These require improvement of environmental sanitation, removal of stagnant and polluted water, slum
clearance, better housing, efficient transport system, clean water supply, better sewerage facilities, control of
communicable diseases, provision of medical and health services, especially in maternal and child welfare by
opening health centres, opening of schools, etc.
(5) For Political System:
The knowledge of demography is of immense importance for a democratic political system. It is on the basis of
the census figures pertaining to different areas that the demarcation of constituencies is done by the election
commission of a country. The addition to the number of voters after each election helps to find out how many
have migrated from other places and regions of the country.
Political parties are able to find out from the census data the number of male and female voters, their level of
education, their age structure, their level of earning, etc. On these basis, political parties can raise issues and
promise solutions in their election manifestos at the time of elections.
Further, it is on the basis of male and female voters in an area that the election commission establishes election
booths for voters and appoints the election staff.
Q. 2 Write down a comprehensive note on relationship between population studies and other subjects of
social science.
This intellectual attitude is partly inspired by the success of population policies put in place between 1960 and
1980, at that time in the form of family-planning programs (in 1960 the global population was three billion
people). These programs, combined with other socioeconomic advances (women’s education as well as their
access to paid employment), accelerated the decline in fertility and slowed demographic growth in developing
countries. Unfortunately some of these interventions were authoritarian, even abusive. This was the case in
India with episodes of forced sterilizations during the period known as the Emergency from 1975-1977. As for
China, in 1979 it adopted a very harsh policy known as the one-child policy, which is still in force today despite
many exceptions. These serious infringements of individual freedom provided additional arguments for
opponents of any intervention on population and, especially, fertility. These developments also led some
demographers to doubt the legitimacy of population policies while, moreover, questioning their effectiveness. 
However, strong population growth will continue, even if some countries experience a decline in their
population. Between now and the end of the century, the planet will have to accommodate a number of people

equivalent to more than 40% of its current population. Nowadays there are also new demographic challenges.
These are the high fertility rates that persist in the poorest countries (most of the forty-eight countries called
“least developed”), the low fertility rate and sometimes depopulation in several industrialized countries (in
Europe) and even in some emerging countries (in Asia), and, especially, changes in the age structure following
the demographic transition process.  These changes in the age pyramids have economic consequences, known as
the “demographic dividend.” This occurs when the fall in fertility causes the base of the pyramid to stabilize, or
even shrink, which has the dual effect of increasing the number of working people, in relative terms, and
reducing the burden of children that is borne by workers. As well as all these dimensions, we can add those of
rapid urbanization and the growth of slums, particularly in the major countries of South Asia and Africa.
Finally, international migratory flows will also probably escalate in the next few decades.  This article is aimed
in particular at recalling the historic role of population policies, and emphasizing the importance of new
demographic issues, which will require new government responses. The article remains at the level of
population policies and does not offer a moral reflection, which is the responsibility of authorities other than
that of the demographer. Nevertheless, knowledge of population policies is an essential precondition for this
moral reflection.
Population policies can be defined as actions taken explicitly or implicitly by the authorities to predict, delay, or
manage imbalances between demographic changes, on the one hand, and social, economic, environmental, and
political objectives on the other. They are implemented by means of “political levers,” namely the instruments
or points of entry used to obtain the changes desired. These instruments are access to information, laws and
regulations, taxation, subsidies and investments, and finally the direct provision of services. For example,
vaccination programs are accompanied by information campaigns, the vaccines are imported with no customs
duties, and the services are subsidized by the authorities.
First and foremost, governments are responsible for implementing population policies, sometimes entrusting
specific interventions to nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) or private associations. In some countries,
these have led directly to policy changes; this was the case in Latin America. Moreover a network of
international organizations, as well as NGOs, assisted developing countries in formulating and implementing
their population policies. This assistance was financial and technical. In developing or industrialized countries,
however, policies have most often taken the form of socioeconomic regulations (family allowance, healthcare,
pension funds) that were supposed to correct or sometimes just support demographic changes. Finally, all
policies on population or socioeconomic regulation always have the ultimate objective of acquiring public
goods, that is, tending towards the common good.
Following the Second World War, interventions by colonial powers in developing countries were aimed at
reducing the high levels of mortality, particularly among infants and children. Besides vaccination campaigns
and the fight against major endemics (for example, malaria), governments have worked to supply drinking

water and sanitation. The authorities have also tried to improve nutrition levels. These advances in public health
and improvements in living conditions helped to rapidly reduce mortality. In turn, this decrease led to an
acceleration in population growth, which was particularly apparent in Asia, which was already the most
populous region in the world in the 1960s. This situation, unprecedented in the history of humankind, led
governments and international organizations to turn to the problem of high demographic growth and, this time,
to consider implementing programs specifically aimed at reducing high fertility.
The pioneering countries in this field were Japan and India. In Japan, in the aftermath of the Second World War,
the leaders passed a law in 1948 known as eugenic protection, which helped to accelerate the transition in
fertility. India was the first major country to officially implement a national population policy, adopted in 1952,
whose stated aim was to reduce fertility by making access to family-planning services easier. However, the
results of this policy were slow to appear, hence the abuses already mentioned. Egypt was also concerned about
its population issue beginning in the 1950s, but only set up an organized program to reduce fertility twenty-five
or thirty years later. As well as family planning, a few countries tried other responses to population growth.
Thus Indonesia, with the support of the World Bank, launched a redistribution of the population, which resulted
in the displacement of about three million people from Java to different islands of the archipelago between 1974
and 1994. However, this policy of transmigration only absorbed 15% of Java’s population growth. 
It should be emphasized that these policies focused on fertility did not succeed everywhere. In this regard, the
comparison of Pakistan and Bangladesh is enlightening. A program of medicalized family planning failed in
Pakistan, even though the population there was relatively more educated. In Bangladesh (which was part of
Pakistan until 1971), a more innovative program with a strategy of door-to-door visits produced good results,
even though the socioeconomic situation was a priori more unfavorable. The emphasis initially placed solely on
family planning gradually gave way to a much broader approach of human development, favoring
socioeconomic advances and the primacy of women’s education. Moreover, the rise in influence of feminist
ideas and rejection of the abuses which several governments were guilty of led international stakeholders
(NGOs, activists, pressure groups) to emphasize individual rights. These two developments, that is, taking
greater account of human development and an increased respect for human rights, merged in 1994 at the
International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in what is known as the Cairo
Agenda, namely the promotion of “reproductive health.” This agenda was not well defined, its priorities were
not clear, and it was undoubtedly too ambitious. It was not fully implemented, partly because of the lack of
funding, both at the national and international level.  For their part, industrialized countries faced the challenges
of low fertility, an aging population, and international migration. In these countries, policies aimed at increasing
fertility have had modest results. Although, on the whole, policies to increase the birth rate have succeeded in
increasing fertility at the margin, they have not led to a dramatic increase in the number of births. France may
be an exception: this country, which has followed a fairly consistent probirth policy for almost a century now,

has a fertility rate (two children per woman) that is among the highest in the European area. Policies to manage
an aging population have also only produced a few tangible results and attempts to raise the retirement age have
often come up against open hostility. Finally, with regard to immigration, a distinction should be made between
countries that are traditionally open to immigrants (the United States, Canada, and Australia), those with a less
strong tradition of welcome (most European countries), and those closed to immigration (Japan). Migratory
policies generally helped to attract immigrants but had little success in making them return to their country of
origin. Nor did these policies prevent the phenomenon of illegal immigration. The regularization of those who
are “undocumented” remains a controversial subject in the political life of many industrialized countries, as can
be seen nowadays in the United States.
Q. 3 Explain the demography transaction theory with examples.
The three main sources of demographic and social statistics are censuses, surveys and administrative records.
They are part of an integrated programme of statistical data collection and compilation, and together they
provide a comprehensive source of information for policy formulation, development planning, administrative
purposes, research, commercial products and other uses. A population census is the total process of collecting,
compiling, evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating demographic, economic and social
data pertaining, at a specified time, to all persons in a country or in a well-delimited part of a country. The
census collects data from each individual and each set of living quarters for the whole country or area. It allows
estimates to be produced for small geographic areas and for population subgroups. It also provides the base
population figures needed to calculate vital rates from civil registration data, and it supplies the sampling frame
for sample surveys. The many steps in planning a census include securing the required legislation, political
support and funding; mapping and listing all households; planning and printing questionnaires, instruction
manuals and procedures; planning for shipping census materials; recruiting and training census personnel;
organizing field operations; launching publicity campaigns; preparing for data processing; and planning for
tabulation, production and dissemination of census results. Because of the expense and complexity of the
census, only the most basic items are included on the questionnaire for the whole population. Choosing these
items requires considering the needs of data users; availability of the information from other data sources;
international comparability; willingness of the respondents to give information; and available resources to fund
the census. Many countries carry out a sample enumeration in conjunction with the census. This can be a cost-
effective way to collect more detailed information on additional topics from a sample of the population. The
sample enumeration uses the infrastructure and facilities that are already in place for the census. A continuing
programme of intercensal household surveys is useful for collecting detailed data on social, economic and
housing characteristics that are not appropriate for collection in a full-scale census. Household-based surveys
are the most flexible type of data collection. They can examine most subjects in detail and provide timely
information about emerging issues. They increase the ability and add to the experience of in-house technical

and field staff and maintain resources that have already been developed, such as maps, sampling frame, field
operations, infrastructure and data-processing capability. The many types of household surveys include multi-
subject surveys, specialized surveys, multi-phase surveys and panel or longitudinal surveys. Each type of survey
is appropriate for certain kinds of data-collection needs. Household surveys can be costly to undertake,
especially if a country has no ongoing programme. Administrative records are statistics compiled from various
administrative processes. They include not only the vital events recorded in a civil registration system but also
education statistics from school records; health statistics from hospital records; employment statistics; and many
others. The reliability and usefulness of these statistics depend on the completeness of coverage and the
compatibility of concepts, definitions and classifications with those used in the census. Administrative records
are often by-products of administrative processes, but they can also be valuable complementary sources of data
for censuses and surveys. Some countries have established comprehensive civil registration systems. Civil
registration is a major foundation for a legal system for establishing the rights and privileges of individuals in a
country. Where it is comprehensively maintained, it is the main source of vital statistics. A system with
reasonable completeness produces vital statistics on births, deaths, marriages, divorces and other events,
together with demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the individuals involved. Such a system can
be further developed into a central population register (CPR), which can update statistics continuously. Nordic
countries—Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden—have relied on register-based statistics since the
1960s. Some countries are moving from a traditional to a register-based census. The United Nations has long
supported efforts to develop and improve civil registration and vital registration systems in developing
countries, but this is a long-term, expensive undertaking. To be successful, it requires support from the
government and the population, and it must have a legal basis, administrative and organizational infrastructure,
technical capacity, equipment, awareness, cooperation and adequate funding. Development of a population
register requires that the registration of vital events be reasonably complete. Each type of data-collection system
is appropriate for certain types of information, so countries often aim to develop capacity and experience not
only in census taking but also in conducting household surveys and in maintaining administrative records.
Sustained funding is a major problem, and lack of a long-term funding source may lead to compromises that
lower the quality of the statistics produced. The best approach is to develop an integrated national statistical
data-collection plan and adopt a strategy to determine which data sources are most appropriate for producing
needed data. It is well known that the three main sources of demographic and social statistics are censuses,
surveys and administrative records. These three data sources are the principal means of collecting basic
demographic and social statistics as part of an integrated programme of statistical data collection and
compilation. Together they provide a comprehensive source of statistical information for policy formulation,
development planning, administrative purposes, research and for commercial and other uses. While these three
sources are complementary, many countries use a combination or all three methods for various

reasons. Normally, countries select one of these sources to obtain statistics based on the needs of the respective
data users; reliability and timeliness of the results; and practicality and cost-effectiveness of the method. In
many countries, however, a particular method is used due to statutory requirements. A combination of two or
all three data sources mentioned above is often used to collect certain data in order to obtain the most accurate
estimate of certain statistics. A country may employ more than one data source because the statistics are
critically important for policy and development planning and no single source is able to provide sufficiently
reliable estimates for those statistics. On the other hand, employing two or all three sources to collect the same
statistics will certainly increase the cost of the data collection. It is therefore necessary that the national
statistical authority should take such a decision only for the highly critical statistics. For example, data on
fertility are often collected through all three sources[1], particularly in developing countries. The three sources
may not give the same results, but countries with a lack of data often use all the sources in order to obtain better
estimates of the fertility levels and trends in the country. Population censuses have been carried out in almost
every country of the world during the past several decades, and some countries have conducted censuses for
more than a century. The main reason censuses are carried out by so many countries is because a population
census is the only data source which collects information from each individual and each set of living quarters,
normally for the entire country or a well-defined territory of the country. Censuses must be carried out as nearly
as possible at a well-defined point in time and at regular intervals so that comparable information is made
available in a fixed sequence (United Nations, 1998). Population censuses are the ideal method of providing
information on the size, composition and spatial distribution of the population, including their demographic and
socio-economic characteristics. Population censuses provide data either for the whole population or for a very
large sample of the population, so that estimates may be produced for relatively small geographic areas and
population subgroups. A census is also ideal for the segmentation of a population into various population
subgroups based on some specified characteristics and for identifying target populations for policy and/or
planning for both governments and private businesses. A population census is a very important source for
population estimates needed to calculate vital rates based on data derived from civil registration. It is also
important in providing the base population for the estimates of statistics obtained from demographic surveys.
Q. 4 What is the role of population studies in formulating public policies?
A capitalist gives to labor as wage a small share of labor’s productivity, and the capitalist himself takes the
lion’s share. The capitalist introduces more and more machinery and thus increases the surplus value of labor’s
productivity, which is pocketed by the capitalist. The surplus is the difference between labor’s productivity and
the wage level. A worker is paid less than the value of his productivity. When machinery is introduced,
unemployment increases and, consequently, a reserve army of labor is created. Under these situations, the wage
level goes down further, the poor parents cannot properly rear their children and a large part of the population

becomes virtually surplus. Poverty, hunger and other social ills are the result of socially unjust practices
associated with capitalism.
Population growth, according to Marx, is therefore not related to the alleged ignorance or moral inferiority of
the poor, but is a consequence of the capitalist economic system. Marx points out that landlordism, unfavorable
and high man-land ratio, uncertainty regarding land tenure system and the like are responsible for low food
production in a country. Only in places where the production of food is not adequate does population growth
become a problem.
Karl Marx’s Theories on Population
The impact of the writings of Karl Marx (1818-1883) on political and economic developments in this century is
well known. But Marx also wrote about population. Not only was he one of Malthus’s main nineteenth-century
critics, but his own “law of population” is interesting in its own right.
Marx did not believe that the growth of human population was controlled by any natural law, as Malthus’s
theories suggested. His ideas are complex, and since they are related to nineteenth-century capitalism they don’t
fit today’s circumstances very well. Briefly, Marx believed that the creation of a surplus population of
unemployed “is a necessary product of accumulation or of the development of wealth on a capitalist basis, this
surplus population also becomes, conversely, the lever of capitalist accumulation, indeed it becomes a condition
for the existence of the capitalist mode of production. It forms a disposable industrial reserve army, which
belongs to capital just as absolutely as if the latter had bred it at its own cost.” Within the working class, the
capitalist system, according to Marx, requires a pool or army of unemployed. This reserve puts pressure on
those who are employed by making them submit to over work and a low level of wages. The numbers in this
reserve army fluctuate with business or trade cycles. During times when business is depressed, workers are laid
off and eventually profits begin to rise again. Thus business (capitalism) benefits by exploiting labour. While
wages are kept low everywhere, the members in this surplus labour army are destined to have the lowest wages.
Thus the working class produces wealth (capital), but because there is a constant oversupply of labour, it will
never share in much of the wealth it produces. Since this means that most working people are kept poor, their
birth rates will remain high and the labour surplus will continue to grow.
Thus for Marx, high levels of population growth were not the cause of poverty (as Malthus believed). Rather, it
was the other way around. Marx believed that capitalism was an unjust economic system that profited at the
expense of those who laboured in it, and by keeping its workers poor also caused high rates of population
growth. His answer was revolution, replacing capitalism with what he believed was a more just economic
system.
While Malthus argues that people have as many children as their income allows them to care for (and some
even more ignoring the laws of nature), Marx looks at a different model of fertility. According to Marx, people
are forward-looking, they understand the consequences of having many children and they want the best for their

children. If people experience an increase in their income, they are likely to reduce their fertility rate instead of
increasing it, as they see that new opportunities are available to their child (for example going to school).
Marx’s reasoning is similar to Nobel prize winning economist Gary Becker’s human capital argument, people
prefer “quality” kids over quantity if they can afford to pay for the quality. However, Marx believes the low
wages of the capitalist system do not give workers this incentive to decrease their fertility and the population
growth further increases the labor supply and depresses wages. Thus, according to Marx, overpopulation is a
normal characteristic of capitalism.
Karl Max is the father of Communism. Great theorisian. He actually didnt has a seperated population theory. He
was against Malthusian population theory. First, let me remember what Malthusian theory argues.
Malthus claimed that the world’s population was growing more rapidly than the available food supply. He
argued that the food supply increases in an arithmetic progression (1, 2, 3, 4, and so on), whereas the population
expands by a geometric progression (1, 2, 4, 8, and so on). Then, this process results in starvation.
Karl Marx argued that starvation was caused by the unequal distribution of the wealth and its accumulation by
capitalists. It has nothing to do with the population. Population is dependent on economic and social
organization. The problems of overpopulation and limits to resources are inevitable features and result
associated with the capitalist system of production.
Why?
A capitalist gives to labor as wage a small share of labor's productivity, and the capitalist himself takes the lion's
share. The capitalist introduces more and more machinery and thus increases the surplus value of labor's
productivity, which is pocketed by the capitalist. The surplus is the difference between labor's productivity and
the wage level. A worker is paid less than the value of his productivity. When machinery is introduced,
unemployment increases and, consequently, a reserve army of labor is created. Under these situations, the wage
level goes down further, the poor parents cannot properly rear their children and a large part of the population
becomes virtually surplus. Poverty, hunger and other social ills are the result of socially unfair practices
associated with capitalism.
Q. 5 How do you evaluate the views of Malthus on arithmetic progression of food substances and
geometric progression of human population?
World Population day is celebrated every year on July 11 to raise awareness among the masses regarding global
population issues faced by the third world countries. The event was first organized in 1989 by United Nation
Governing council Development Programme. At that time the population of the world was 5 billion. The current
world population is about 7.7 billion and increasing at a higher pace. The population of Pakistan was
approximately 100 million; however, the current population of Pakistan is about 210 million. It is expected that
the population of Pakistan can cross 300 million by 2050, which is an alarming situation for Pakistan

Major reasons for the increase in Population are 1. Lack of women Empowerment. 2.Poor response of
Population Dept.3. An increasing rate of illiteracy among the masses.4. An imbalance between death and birth
rate. 5. Lack of family planning. 6. Strong belief in religion. 7. Technological advancement in fertility
treatment. 8. Increase in immigrants and Refugees etc.
Due to a high increase in the population, Pakistan is facing serious challenges like shortage of water, electricity,
jobs infrastructure, public transportation, health, education law and order, and other social issues are prevailing
in the society. The population is a big threat for Pakistan. China has reduced the birth rate and controlled the
growth rate of population in a decent way.
According to new trends and technology, the increased population with a high rate is dangerous for Pakistan. It
is time that new reforms may be introduced for family planning and awareness may be created among the
masses regarding the disadvantages of Population. After reducing the rate of birth, we can uplift the socio-
economic conditions of the people of Pakistan.
Pakistan Population 2020 (Live)
221,654,660
According to current population projections, Pakistan will reach its peak population in 2092 of 404.68 million
people. Pakistan’s population is expected to surpass that of Indonesia in 2048 when it will reach 331.29 million.
Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan’s average population growth rate was 2.40%. For a population of over 220
million, this is a growth of about 5.28 million people per year.
Pakistan has one of the highest birth rates of 22 births per 1,000 people. Very few women use any type of birth
control in Pakistan, and the surging population can put too much pressure on water and sanitation systems,
result in millions of unemployed people, and overwhelm health and education systems.
Pakistan Population Growth
Since the year 1947, when the country became a sovereign state, the population of Pakistan has increased
significantly, particularly because more and more people felt comfortable moving their families and businesses
to the area. Compared to the other countries in the region, the growth rate of Pakistan is about 2.1 percent
higher. It is predicted that in about 35 years, if this growth continues, the population of Pakistan will eventually
become double of what it was back in 2001. Judging from how the population has grown significantly over just
ten years, this “doubled population” figure does not seem to be far off.
Pakistan Population Projections
The current growth rate in Pakistan is close to 2%, but this is expected to halve to less than 1% by the year 2050
- at which point it is predicted to cross the 300 million threshold. The population is predicted to near 210
million by 2020 and get to 245 million by 2030.
Population and Food Supply
The Malthusian theory explained that the population grows in a geometrical fashion.

The population would double in 25 years at this rate. However, the food supply grows in an arithmetic
progression. Food supply increases at a slower rate than the population. That is, the food supply will be limited
in a few years. The shortage of food supply indicates an increasing population.
Checks on Population
When the increasing population rate is greater than the food supply, disequilibrium exists. As a result, people
will not get enough food even for survival. People will die due to lack of food supply. Adversities such as
epidemics, wars, starvation, famines and other natural calamities will crop up which are named as positive
checks by Malthus. On the contrary, there are man-made checks known as preventive checks.
Positive Checks
Nature has its own ways of keeping a check on the increasing population. It brings the population level to the
level of the available food supply. The positive checks include famines, earthquakes, flood, epidemics, wars,
etc. Nature plays up when the population growth goes out of hand.
Preventive Checks
The preventive measures such as late marriage, self-control, simple living, help to balance the population
growth and food supply. These measures not only checks the population growth, but can also prevents the
catastrophic effects of the positive checks.
Criticism of Malthusian Theory of Population
The Malthusian theory was criticised based on the following observations:
1. In Western Europe, the population was rising at a rapid rate. At the same time, the food supply had also
increased due to technological developments.
2. Many times, food production had increased more than the population. For eg., 2% of the total population
is working in the agricultural sector in the US. Still, the total GDP is more than 14 trillion dollars.
3. Malthus theory stated that one of the reasons for limited food supply is non-availability of land.
However, the amount of food supply in various countries has increased due to increased globalization.
4. The estimations for the geometric growth of population and arithmetic growth of population were not
provided by Malthus. It was stated that the rate of growth is not consistent with Malthus’ theory.

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