A1 An Autonomous World
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- 2. An Autonomous World Planning the Future of Transit Price Armstrong, MassDOT Anna Gartsman, MBTA Shannon Greenwell, MassDOT 2
- 3. Introductions • How many people are already familiar with autonomous vehicle technology? • How many people work for municipalities? Regional government? State government? Consulting firms? Nonprofit? Other? • How many people know of an adopted planning document that considers the impacts of autonomous vehicles? 3
- 4. Technology Overview Benefits and Drawbacks Table Discussions Report Back Outline 4
- 5. Technology Overview * * Google car by Yair Cohen from the Noun Project 5
- 7. Technology Overview Technology Development Timeline • Fully Autonomous Vehicle Roll Out – Low estimate: 2020 – High estimate: 2040 (or, never) * From Victoria Transportation Policy Institute’s Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning 7Technology Overview
- 8. Technology Overview Four Types of Driverless Vehicles: • Level 1 (Function-Specific) • Level 2 (Combined-Function Automation) • Level 3 (Limited Self-Driving Automation) • Level 4 (Full Self-Driving Automation) 8Technology Overview
- 9. Technology Overview Automated Fixed Guideway Transit Systems • Vancouver, BC • Singapore • Tokyo • Shanghai, Beijing • Copenhagen • Paris • Budapest • Sao Paulo 9Technology Overview
- 10. Technology Overview Automated Elements in US Transit • Minnesota Valley Transit Authority • Lane Transit District • Honolulu Area Rail Transit 10Technology Overview
- 11. Policy Context States with laws/regulations: • Nevada • Florida • California • Washington, DC • Michigan 11Technology Overview
- 13. 13 Benefits and Drawbacks Equity Environment Economy Emergency Management Land Use Public Health
- 14. Equity 14
- 15. Equity Benefits • Increased mobility, accessibility, and independence for populations are unable to drive, including: – People with disabilities – Seniors – Children – Low income households – Drunk college students (big concern for us in Boston) • Increased mobility for all: – autonomous vehicles can safely operate at much higher speeds and much shorter distances than human drivers – network knowledge can better manage traffic flow – increased roadway capacity – reduced traffic congestion 15Benefits Steve Mahan, CEO of the Santa Clara Valley Blind Center
- 16. • During gradual adoption, inequities are exacerbated o Quality of public transportation could decrease as systems lose ridership and fares that support services o Low-income residents will face a higher burden when low-cost public transportation options decrease and autonomous vehicles remain out of reach A Profile of Public Transportation Passenger Demographics and Travel Characteristics Reported in On-Board Surveys, 2007, John Neff and Larry Pham, American Public Transportation Association Equity Drawbacks 35% of public transit riders are from 2-person, low-income families Drawbacks 16
- 17. Environment 17
- 18. Environmental Benefits • Increased fuel efficiency from: – Better route choices, avoiding traffic jams and red lights – No need to circle for convenient parking – More efficient accelerating/braking behavior than human drivers • Fewer autos/person; cut down on environmental impacts of auto production – Autonomous taxi vehicles (several passenger capacity) combined with high- capacity public transit could remove 9 out of every 10 cars in a mid-sized European city. – Even in the scenario that only allows single-occupancy vehicles and without high-capacity public transit, nearly eight out of ten cars could be removed. “Nearly the same mobility can be delivered with 10% of the cars” Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic (OECD, 2015) 18Benefits
- 19. Drawbacks Environmental Drawbacks Photo credit: MassRIDES • Increased VMT, especially during gradual adoption o As the cost of driving decreases, more people may chose to drive o Public transportation may lose “choice riders” • Increased congestion, especially during gradual adoption o Increase in fuel consumption o Increase in harmful emissions 19
- 20. Economy 20
- 21. Economic Benefits • Individual increased productivity: Time spent driving can be better spent doing almost anything else – Working – Napping – Eating – Exercising – Reading – Not yelling at bicyclists in a fit of road rage • Car sharing/decreased auto ownership means more income can go to other expenses, including supporting local economies • Reduction in parking spots can mean more useful/revenue generating land use, since parking is frequently a very low value-added land use • Develops a whole new industry for autonomous vehicle-related goods and services (shifts work away from hardware manufacturing to software production & service delivery) 21Benefits Joe Cortright, Portland’s Green Dividend
- 22. Drawbacks Economic Drawbacks • Reduced revenues o Reduces parking revenues for municipalities o Reduces rider fares to public transit systems • Employment shifts o Reduced need for bus drivers and train operators o Reduced need for taxi drivers o Reduced need for “crash economy” services “One recent estimate concluded that approximately 31 percent of space in the central business districts of 41 major cities was devoted to parking .” The High Cost of Free Parking, 2005, Donald C. Shoup Parking Space (31%) Non-parking space (69%) 22
- 23. Drawbacks Economic Drawbacks 23 The Most Common Job in Every State 2014, NPR Planet Money website, Feb. 5, 2015
- 25. Emergency Management Benefits • Faster response time: Early alerts in the network can re-route or stop traffic, resulting in many fewer accidents • Emergency vehicles have an easier time getting through traffic – don’t have to wait for slow human reaction time 25Benefits Art credit: Fast Co.Design
- 26. Drawbacks Emergency Management Drawbacks Photo credit: MassDOT • Increased vulnerability o System security issues include the possibility of hacking, malware viruses, and “jail breaking” o Risks posed by both outside parties and vehicle users • Issues can spread quickly through a connected network “AVs will surely be as big a temptation for ‘jail breaking’ as users seek to improve performance or run their own software, almost certainly while risking safety.” Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers, 2014, James M. Anderson, Nidhi Kalra, Karlyn D. Stanley, Paul Sorensen, Constantine Samaras, Oluwatobi A. Oluwatola, RAND Corporation 26
- 27. Land Use 27
- 28. Land Use Benefits • Without the need for parking (since an autonomous vehicle can drive itself to wherever it “lives”), we are free to reconfigure our urban areas to be more walkable, bikeable, and transit-friendly. • Encourages active modes of transportation in the “inner core”, keeps automobiles out of the way. • Decreasing rates of auto ownership means more effective land use patterns 28Benefits Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture
- 29. Drawbacks Land Use Drawbacks Photo credit: MassDOT • Increased sprawl and reduced density outside of the “inner core” o Required expansion of infrastructure o Increased congestion • Decreases active transportation outside the “inner core” 29
- 30. Public Health 30
- 31. Public Health Benefits • Increased Safety: – Fewer accidents = savings of life and money – Google car stats • a dozen minor accidents • none the fault of the car • today: 94% of car accidents are due to human error (NHTSA) – Networked transportation system that automatically reacts to road conditions – No “distracted driver” concerns • Lower car ownership rates would separate out the costs of using the car from owning the car; unbundling of costs will increase active transportation for trips that do not require a vehicle 31Benefits Photo credit: Boston Magazine
- 32. Drawbacks Public Health Drawbacks Photo credit: MassDOT • Decreased active transportation, particularly outside of the “inner core” o Fewer trips on transit mean loss of healthy transportation associated with a transit trip • Longer commutes equal more time spent in sedentary position • Less dense land use tends to decrease the amount of walking and biking in neighborhoods “U.S. Center for Disease Control recommends that adults average at least 22 daily minutes of moderate physical activity… to stay fit and healthy. Although less than half of American adults achieve this target, most public transportation passengers do exercise the recommended amount while walking to and from transit stations and stops.” Evaluating Public Transportation Health Benefits, June 14, 2010, Todd Litman, Victoria Transport Policy Institute 32
- 34. 34 Benefits and Drawbacks Equity Environment Economy Emergency Management Land Use Public Health
- 35. Report Back 35
Editor's Notes
- #7: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdeXlrq-tNw
- #9: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR400/RR443-1/RAND_RR443-1.pdf • Level 1 (function-specific automation): Automation at this level involves one or more specific control functions; if multiple functions are automated, they operate independently of each other. The driver has overall control, and is solely responsible for safe operation, but can choose to cede limited authority over a primary control (as in ACC); the vehicle can automatically assume limited authority over a primary control (as in electronic stability control); or the automated system can provide added control to aid the driver in certain normal driving or crash-imminent situations (e.g., dynamic brake support in emergencies). • Level 2 (combined-function automation): This level involves automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of controlling those functions. Vehicles at this level of automation can utilize shared authority when the driver cedes active primary control in certain limited driving situations. The driver is still responsible for monitoring the roadway and safe operation, and is expected to be available for control at all times and on short notice. The system can relinquish control with no advance warning and the driver must be ready to control the vehicle safely. • Level 3 (limited self-driving automation): Vehicles at this level of automation enable the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions, and in those conditions to rely heavily on the vehicle to monitor for changes in those conditions requiring transition back to driver control. The driver is expected to be available for occasional control, but with sufficiently comfortable transition time. • Level 4 (full self-driving automation): The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles. By design, safe operation rests solely on the automated vehicle system. (NHTSA, 2013).
- #10: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_urban_metro_subway_systems
- #11: LTD and MVTA - http://www.automatedfl.com/cutr-evaluates-state-av-technology-transit/ Honolulu - http://www.citylab.com/tech/2014/09/honolulu-is-building-americas-first-fully-driverless-transit-system/380292/ In 2010, the University of Minnesota developed a lane departure warning system for the Minnesota Valley Transit Authority, which they used to help bus drivers while driving on highway shoulders. Known was “Bus 2.0”, the technology included GPS, radar, and lidar, and it provided three different types of feedback to the driver: visual, haptic, and tactile. CUTR’s evaluation of Bus 2.0 found that the technology did improve bus operations and reduce driver stress. When the technology was activated, the bus drivers stayed in the shoulders 4.3 percent longer, drove 3.5 miles per hour faster, and reduced their side to side movement by 4.7 inches. Since then unfortunately, MVTA has discontinued using it. On the other side of the country in Eugene, Oregon, Lane Transit District has been testing magnetic guidance technology for precision docking at along a limited stretch of its EmX bus rapid transit. The technology was developed by the Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways Program at UC Berkeley and uses rare earth magnets embedded in the pavement to create a magnetic guide path. CUTR is wrapping up the evaluation. Initial results showed the BRT vehicles getting within two centimeters of the station platform on average. Lane Transit District has plans to expand the use of this technology to the rest of the EmX BRT route. Honolulu - The big issue, he says, is that despite the potential savings down the line, it's expensive to convert existing systems into driverless ones. The technology in place for semi-autonomous transit in New York, Chicago, and San Francisco was put in place years ago and would take loads of money—and political will—to overhaul completely. "To take advantage of driverless, you have to change everything you do," Sanders says.
- #12: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car
- #16: For people with limited incomes, a joint ownership model where the cost of the vehicle is shared with other people (like a family phone plan), can lower the cost of transportation
- #17: For our purposes, low income working families are those that earn less than twice the federal poverty line. http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2013/us-working-poor-families.aspx Low income family of 2 (2-person most common transit rider household size)= $31,860 Federal poverty level 2015 for household of 2 =$15,930 http://aspe.hhs.gov/2015-poverty-guidelines
- #20: Decreased cost of driving impacts mode choice. The first three drawbacks are caused by change in mode choice- shifting from alternatives to the automobile/SOV (ie public transportation, walking, cycling).
- #22: http://blog.oregonlive.com/commuting/2009/09/pdxgreendividend.pdf
- #23: Reduced revenues: When making policies, keep in mind using the lost parking space for something else that will generate revenue for the municipality and make sure the mechanism for collection is in place. Employment shifts: how will this change employees’ tasks, working with unions, etc.
- #24: Reduced revenues: When making policies, keep in mind using the lost parking space for something else that will generate revenue for the municipality and make sure the mechanism for collection is in place. Employment shifts: how will this change employees’ tasks, working with unions, etc.
- #27: RAND pg 70
- #30: Decreased cost of driving impacts housing choice/commute length choice