ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2ND GENERATION OF NAIPS: STATUS AND PROGRESS
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The document outlines the analytical support for developing the second generation of National Agricultural Investment Plans (NAIPs) with a focus on progress towards Malabo goals such as poverty reduction, hunger elimination, and agricultural growth. It details methodologies, stakeholder engagement, and deliverables such as status assessments and policy recommendations. Key lessons from a Kenyan case study emphasize the importance of income growth strategies, rural social assistance, and agricultural investment to meet these targets.
ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2ND GENERATION OF NAIPS: STATUS AND PROGRESS
- 1. ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2ND GENERATION OF NAIPS: STATUS AND PROGRESS Ismaël FOFANA IFPRI - Africa Region 1/17
- 2. Overarching goals and targets • Poverty and hunger • Agricultural productivity and growth • Agriculture expenditure Thematic goals and targets • Inclusive growth and value chain development • Intra-Africa trade of agricultural commodities • Nutrition and food security • Gender • Climate smart agriculture and resilience • Mutual accountability Malabo Overarching and Thematic Areas2/17
- 3. Experts Group 220 local experts mobilized Task Force 20 International experts to provide backstopping support to experts Contribution to elaborate a Toolkit o Clarify metrics and data needs; o define methodologies o Specify core program components 60 days of workshop implemented Resources for NAIPs 2.0 Evidence-Based Planning3/17
- 4. Objectives of NAIPs Analytical Support Produce evidences to inform and guide the design of the NAIPs Create coherence among multiple Malabo goals and targets Set the milestones to facilitate the tracking of future progress Translate the overarching goals into actionable results and targets Facilitate the prioritization of public investments 4/17
- 5. Stepwise Analytical Support to the Design of NAIPs 2.0 Step 1 Malabo Agenda Domestication Step 2 Country Status and Profile Step 3 Prospects for Agricultural Development 5/17
- 6. Microeconomic Analysis • Malabo poverty reduction goal and target (-50%) • Malabo hunger elimination goal and target (-95%) • Income growth • Income inequality reduction • Food consumption expenditure Economywide Analysis • Income growth • Income inequality reduction • Food consumption expenditure • Efficiency improvement • Technological gap reduction • Malabo post-production losses goal and target (-50%) • Malabo intra-Africa trade goal and target (200%) • Malabo accelerated agricultural growth goal and target (6%) • Malabo agricultural public investments goal and target (10%) Productivity Analysis • Malabo productivity increase goal and target (100%) • Efficiency improvement • Technological gap reduction An Integrated Analytical Framework to Address Multiple Malabo Goals and Milestones6/17
- 7. Analytical Support Deliverables Status Assessment & Profile report - Stocktake of Country Status - Appraisal of NAIP 1.0 Malabo Goals & Milestones report - Set goals and milestones - Prioritize investment areas - Identify strategic commodities Policies & Program Opportunities report - Most effective program interventions and public policies 7/17
- 8. Deliverables of the Analytical Support (cont.) Results Framework Development 8/17
- 9. Stakeholders Engagement Mechanism and Process CAADP/Malabo Domestication Event NAIP Strategic Planning Event Other NAIP Convening Events 9/17
- 10. Progress and Plan Stage Central Eastern Northern Southern West All Completed Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Malawi Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea- Bissau, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo 19 Ongoing Ethiopia Uganda Mozambique Seychelles 4 Starting Angola Gabon Morocco Tunisia Botswana Swaziland Namibia Zambia Zimbabwe Lesotho 9 All 2 5 2 9 15 33 Not started 7 7 5 3 0 22 10/17
- 11. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study 1. Accelerate Income Growth and Inequality Reduction to Halve Poverty between 2015-2025 2.5% -0.7% 3.5% -1.3% Income Growth Inequality Reduction BaU Malabo -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 BaU Malabo Poverty Headcount Index, Percent Change 2015-2025 Income Growth and Inequality Reduction, Average Annual Change 2015-2025 Malabo Target 11/17
- 12. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.) 2. Rural-focused Income Growth Strategy to Halve Poverty between 2015-2025 Poverty Headcount Index, Business as Usual -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Rural Urban Malabo Target 12/17
- 13. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.) 3. Combine Income Growth Strategy and Social Assistance to End Hunger by 2025 Hunger Index, under Various Scenarios Social Assistance Coverage • 7 million individuals 11% total population • Ksh 20 Billion 1% Government Budget 2015 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 BaU Growth Strategy Growth Strategy + Social AssistanceMalabo Target 13/17
- 14. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.) 4. Rural-focused Social Assistance to End Hunger by 2025 Hunger Index, Rural, Urban and National (%) 1 1 21 5 13 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 Income Growth Income Growth + Social Assitance Urban Rural National 14/17
- 15. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.) 5. Agriculture gives the best value for money Growth and Poverty Impact of a Marginal Allocation of Public Investments (%) 15/17
- 16. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.) 6. Agricultural-led Growth to Achieve the Malabo Commitments and Goals GDP Growth, Average Annual Variation (%) 16/17
- 17. ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2ND GENERATION OF NAIPS: STATUS AND PROGRESS 17/17