Architecture, Education and the Fragile Future
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This document provides an overview of a keynote presentation on architecture, education, and the fragile future. The presentation discusses five major transformations that will shape the future, including automation, globalization, climate change, demographics, and digital technology. It argues that the future will be defined by addressing challenges related to human talent, including ensuring sufficient quality and empowering talent. The presentation suggests architecture and architectural education can help by focusing on meaning over function, addressing globalization, promoting sustainability, and embracing digital tools and global collaboration.
Architecture, Education and the Fragile Future
- 1. Architecture, Education and the Fragile Future keynote presentation dr. Žiga Turk professor, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia foremr. Secretary General, Reflection Group on the Future of EU, Brussels. ECAADE, Ljubljana, September 20th, 2011 www.zturk.com
- 2. Contents • the future will not be like the past – five grand transformations, – five areas of challenges • how to deal with that – utilize the Institutions, the Sun, the Talent • what can architects, architectural education do – generally about the five challenges – specifically about talent • spaces are not the only fragile thing www.zturk.com
- 3. ABC of grand transformations (+DE) • • • • • automation and abundance BRICs and globalization climate change and energy demography e-everything www.zturk.com
- 5. Our industrial model: people work www.zturk.com
- 6. … so that they can buy a car. www.zturk.com
- 7. The idea worked for a long time! www.zturk.com
- 8. But now some can produce but do not spend www.zturk.com
- 9. Leading to abundance of products and information in the developed world www.zturk.com
- 10. Solution: to those who already have a car also sell a motorbike! www.zturk.com
- 11. “What we sell is the ability for a 43-year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride through small towns and have people be afraid of him”. Actually they are not in a business of selling bikes! www.zturk.com
- 14. Plain Design Award Few are in a business of selling function. They sell meaning! www.zturk.com
- 15. Plain Fair-traded Some sell coffee, some sell a good feeling. www.zturk.com
- 16. Some sell cleaners and some let us do something for the environment. www.zturk.com
- 17. B www.zturk.com
- 18. ABCDE: GDP in year 1 www.zturk.com
- 19. ABCDE: GDP in 1500 – (BR)IC www.zturk.com
- 21. ABCDE: GDP in 2015 www.zturk.com
- 22. ABCDE: Population in 2050 www.zturk.com
- 25. And if this was not impressive enough … www.zturk.com
- 26. Economic Importance of not only Social Capital but also Social Networks www.zturk.com
- 27. Two laws • Moore’s – computing performance doubles every 1.5 years • Metcalf’s law – the value of the social network is related to the square of the number of the members – social network of 3 has a value 9 – social network of 5 has a value of 25 • The value in Internet Economy is in the People, not in CPUs • Metcalf’s Law applies! www.zturk.com
- 29. Top languages on the Internet China: 485 million Internet users (cover 36.2% population) 91.3% go online at home via broadband Internet 318 million mobile Internet users (65.5%) Using the Internet 18.7 hours per week 1.87 million Websites 7.86 million domain names By CNNIC, July 19, 2011 www.zturk.com Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/
- 30. C www.zturk.com
- 31. The charts may be different www.zturk.com
- 32. but climate IS changing www.zturk.com
- 33. Fossil fuels are getting expensive www.zturk.com
- 34. We may be running out of fuel www.zturk.com
- 35. Sources of Energy in EU www.zturk.com
- 36. We know how to reduce CO2 • we just need to revert to the kind of life we had 200 years ago • the issue is, how to do it without wrecking the economy • the point is we should do it by invigorating economy www.zturk.com
- 37. D www.zturk.com
- 38. Declining share of EU population www.zturk.com
- 40. www.zturk.com
- 41. www.zturk.com
- 42. www.zturk.com
- 43. E www.zturk.com
- 45. … www.zturk.com
- 46. The three common features of the transformations • historic and long term, deeper and structural reasons behind the crisis • triggered the crisis in the short term • global in nature www.zturk.com
- 47. ABCDE are historic … • end of industrial, information age, dawn of creative economy • end of the dominance of the West • end of below ground energy and fossil fuels • end of a population growth, youth dominated society • end of paper based society, dawn of digital society www.zturk.com
- 48. ABCDE are behind the crisis of the West • people worried about old age … saving … (d-demography) • BRICs economies saving a lot (absence of social security), savings coming to financial markets in the West … (b-BRICS) • where we had no idea what to do with it … (a-abundance) – lack of realistic demand, investment – instead inflate value of what existed (houses, stock) (a-abundance) • and when energy shortage pushed prices of oil up, with it inflation, with it price of money the crisis eruped (c – climate) … • thanks to the e-commerce with the speed of light • some recovery but unless ABCDE are addressed, there will be no (financially) sustainable recovery (ŽT, 2009) • 2011: recovery so far has not been financially sustainable, accumulated debt, did not create jobs! www.zturk.com
- 49. So what can we do? www.zturk.com
- 50. In the US you elect a charismatic president! www.zturk.com
- 51. Reflection Group on the Future of Europe The Group is chaired by Mr. Felipe Gonzalez Marquez, assisted by two Vice-Chairs, Ms. Vaira Vike-Freiberga and Mr. Jorma Ollila, and includes 9 more members, all eminent experts in their own fields: Ms. Lykke Friis, Mr. Rem Koolhaas, Mr. Richard Lambert, Mr. Mario Monti, Mr. Rainer Munz, Ms. Kalypso Nicolaidis, Ms. Nicole Notat, Mr. Wolfgang Schuster and Mr. Lech Walesa. The Group is supported by a secretariat headed by Secretary-General, Mr. Žiga Turk. www.zturk.com
- 53. Reflection Group’s message “Europe has a Choice: Reform or Decline” www.zturk.com
- 54. Europe has choices across ABCDE A B C D E • restructure for post industrial society • agent of change, trend setter, player • maintain technological and political lead • family and immigration friendly • embrace digital like we embraced print • cherish industrial traditions • bunch of passive selfish former superpowers • build walls for migrants and dams for seas • a continent of grumpy old men (an women) • defend the ways of paper based society www.zturk.com
- 55. Europe has three resources • Power of the sun • The hearts and minds of the people of Europe • The tools of the Union www.zturk.com
- 56. The hearts and minds of the talent … www.zturk.com
- 57. “In the creative knowledge economy of the future, human talent is the ultimate economic resource” Richard Florida www.zturk.com
- 58. Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution Automation&Abundance: Routine work dissappearing Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) Routine manual 65 60 Nonroutine manual architects 55 Routine cognitive 50 accountants 45 Nonroutine analytic 40 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 Nonroutine interactive (Levy and Murnane) www.zturk.com
- 59. Challenges related to human talent • quantity • quality • empowerment 59 www.zturk.com
- 61. ABCDE: Population Talent in 2050 www.zturk.com
- 63. “So we will not have the quantity, but we will have the quality” standard EU mantra www.zturk.com
- 64. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 United States Czech Republic Estonia Germany Switzerland Denmark Canada Norway Sweden Russian Federation4 Austria3 Slovenia Israel Slovak Republic New Zealand Hungary Finland United Kingdom3 Netherlands Luxembourg EU19 average OECD average France Australia Iceland Belgium Poland Ireland Korea Chile2 Greece Italy Spain Turkey Portugal Mexico Brazil2 Shall we? The world is flat! % 1990s 1980s 1970s 1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 1960s 13 1 1 27 2. Year of reference 2004 3. Year of reference 2003. www.zturk.com
- 65. “Europeans want to invest more in research and innovation” Durao Barroso www.zturk.com
- 68. Growth in Annual Output in Science www.zturk.com
- 70. “Leaders in the 21st Century will be those that empower others” Bill Gates www.zturk.com
- 71. Why this is important: • in Europe will not have the numbers • everybody in the world knows education, innovation is important • but we have a culture, tradition, values – respect for the individual – freedom – democracy • these values empower, these values should open opportunities www.zturk.com
- 72. What empowers, what attracts talent? • Richard Florida: “Talent is attracted by three T’s – tolerance – technology – other talent • what can architects do about this? www.zturk.com
- 73. Architecture, CAAD, eCAADe in the grand scheme of things (1) • addressing the ABCDE challenges • addressing the race for talent www.zturk.com
- 74. A) Abundance and Automation • structural engineering is about function • architecture is about function and meaning • 1:10:100:1000 rule – – – – 1 cost of structural system 10 cost of facility 100 cost of facility use 1000 cost of business in a building www.zturk.com
- 75. A) Abundance and Automation • from “form follows function” to “form follows meaning” • customization, personalizati on • crafting not industrialization • not teaching for mass production but for mass customization • not teaching function but meaning www.zturk.com
- 76. B) BRICS, Globaliz ation • the real need is there • the growth is there • manual work will remain local • information work is increasingly global www.zturk.com
- 77. B) BRICS and Globalization • construction = information processes + material processes • information processes know no location or borders • growth will be in the BRIC economies; in the West we have most of the housing we need www.zturk.com
- 79. Construction has double opportunities double winners + construction and associated sectors chemical industry - building automotive materials, textiles fossil paper, energy metal transportation food tourism double losers mechanical and electrical engineering renewable energy + finance impact of the change in regulation, market, govt. intervention Winning and loosing sectors of climate change agriculture and forestry - impact of the change of climate 80 www.zturk.com
- 80. Construction can deliver low hanging fruit Vattenfall/McKinsey educate, advertis e legislate, standardise tax breaks, feed ins don't waste taxpayer's money active support, r&d funding 81 www.zturk.com
- 81. D) Demography and Construction • Demographic decline not good in general. • Opportunities: – grey economy – Florida: “Human Talent is the Ultimate Economic Resource” • Provide an attractive place for talent (later) www.zturk.com
- 82. e) E-construction, architecture Digital model, Internet Drawing, Paper master builders local teamwork global teamwork limited documentation, oral communication paper based documentation, paper based communication digitised communication digitised documentation no clear space/time separation between information and material processes material and information processes separated in space and time information sub-processes separated in time and space 1500AD paper and print 2000AD digital communication www.zturk.com
- 83. Architecture, CAAD, eCAAD in the grand scheme of things (2) • addressing the ABCDE challenges • addressing the race for talent • Reflection Group in general • eCAADe community in particular www.zturk.com
- 84. Chapter: Growth Through Knowledge: Empowering the Individual • “Knowledge-based and creative industries and services have expanded significantly over the last two decades, becoming the central pillars for employment and economic dynamism in Europe” • “European Research Area must become a reality – an area without borders where all scientific potential, wherever it is, can be fully tapped thanks to the free movement of researchers, ideas, technologies and capital” www.zturk.com
- 85. Recommendations on talent • “Free global markets that respect intellectual property rights are the essential breeding ground for innovation.” • “Companies will need to be more supportive of workforce initiatives and open innovation to improve competitiveness.” • “Pass a European Innovation Act simplifying funding opportunities and empower the European Institute for Innovation and Technology to set up innovative joint programmes across the EU”; www.zturk.com
- 86. Recommendations on Education • “providing teachers with the professional recognition they deserve; developing flexible and open curricula capable of nurturing curiosity and creativity among children” • “The administrative and financial autonomy of universities must also be encouraged” • “high income students should contribute to the mounting cost of education” • “Competition between universities must also be promoted, as should governance models based on accountability and transparency”. • “University systems characterised by clientelism and corporatism must be thoroughly challenged”. www.zturk.com
- 87. Creative economy • “The creative economy will continue to evolve faster than the political processes intended to support or regulate it. • Every day it reveals new horizons and revolutionary prospects. Flexibility and responsiveness must therefore be the backbone of any regulatory framework in this field. • Facilitating a culture of risk-taking and entrepreneurship is even more important. Only this will allow the EU to fully reap the rewards of research and experimentation, and with it to create new jobs.” www.zturk.com
- 88. States, Cities, People • (B) influence of states is limited • (ADE) people live and work in cities, regions • in a world without borders, where government policies are similar, it is the cities that are competing for talent • cities are developed over centuries • talents are shaped over decades www.zturk.com
- 89. Cities and development • concrete age • copper age • golden age www.zturk.com
- 90. Concrete age • city is a sum of infrastructure • jobs are created building this infrastructure (construction workers, also a few engineers and architects) • one fights the economic crisis by investing in built infrastructure www.zturk.com
- 91. Copper age • copper is in coins and electric cabling, internet • industry and science working on greening buildings, greening traffic • industry and science on graying buildings www.zturk.com
- 92. Golden age • cities that are attractive for human capital • creative, entrepreneuria l professionals of various profiles: scientists, engineers, de signers, artists, humanis ts … • shaping such cities, respecting the heritage www.zturk.com
- 93. A footnote on fragility • systems, when left to themselves, develop into fragility – financial systems, formula 1 cars, human bodies, cities, environments … • resilience means things are not optimized • it takes wisdom to distinguish between beneficial resilience and finesse of fragility www.zturk.com
- 94. In conclusion • five great challenges ahead – A,B,C,D,E • human talent is a key resource resolving those challenges • architecture is a major element in – addressing A,B,C,D,E – making attractive technical infrastructure for talent • architectural education should contribute www.zturk.com
- 95. In conclusion: architectural education • skills are in courseware • books, papers are on the internet • what matters is to tell, what matters – – – – meaning not function customization, not industrialization awareness, curiosity, creativity the big picture, issues beyond borders of the field – awareness that the essence of architecture is how it shapes man and society … www.zturk.com
- 96. “The essence of technology is nothing technical” M. Heidegger www.zturk.com
- 97. Acknowledgements photos: Reflection Group Final Report, Google photo search, Flickr, EU, Rem KoolHaas … charts: Erste Bank, Stanford University, OECD, WEO, IMF, NASA more information, author contact at www.zTurk.com www.zturk.com
Editor's Notes
- #7: © The Henry Ford's photostream