Competing visions for the future
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The document discusses competing visions for the future in the post-PC era, emphasizing the dominance of mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets as primary means of interaction. Key themes include the rapid growth of app phones, the impact of ecosystem and cloud services on consumer behavior, and the importance of user experience as technology evolves. It concludes with considerations on the future of connected devices and potential challenges in mobile advertising and consumer targeting.
![Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
Everything becom es accessories or adjuncts to app
phones and tablets and cloud (=algorithm s)
Accessory Adjunct Algorithm
ac·ces·so·ry ad·junct al·go·rit hm
[ak-ses-uh-ree] [aj-uhngkt] [al-guh-rith-uhm]
noun, plural -ries, adjective
noun noun noun
1. a subordinate or 1. something added 1. a set of rules for
supplementary to another thing solving a
part, object, or but not essential problem in a
the like, used to it. nite number of
mainly for steps
convenience,
attractiveness,
safety, etc., as a
spotlight on an
automobile or a
lens cover on a
camera.
6 19 October 2011](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/competingvisionsforthefuture-121010182746-phpapp01/85/Competing-visions-for-the-future-13-320.jpg)
Competing visions for the future
- 1. Competing Visions for the Future Post-PC Era @MITEFCMB #MITForum October 9, 2012
- 2. Competing Visions • Two seemingly competing visions for the future • Friendly smack-down (or so I was promised) • Tonight = “The Voice” for the most powerful idea • Who will win? • You decide!
- 3. Lora Kratchounova, Scratch Marketing + Media • Twitter: @ScratchMM • Principal at Scratch M+M • MIT Enterprise Forum Vice Chair, Innovation and Startup Committee • Inspired by what the MIT Enterprise Forum has to offer • Inspired by compelling visions for the future
- 4. The Future is Mobile • The future is going to be mobile • Mobile phones/tablets (mostly by Apple) = the dominant way we interact with the world around us • The mobile phone/tablet becomes our universal “remote control”
- 5. The Mobile Revolution • Through Q1 2012, just 2 years after Apple shipped the initial iPad, Apple has sold 67 million of them – It took Apple 24 years to sell that many Macs – Over 3 years for that many iPhones – 5 years for that many iPods • 1.2 billion smartphones over the next 5 years, about 40 % of all handset shipments (ABIResearch)
- 6. How Mobile Are We?
- 7. How Mobile Are We?
- 8. Michael Davies, Endeavour Partners • The Future is Mobile • @MichaelAMDavies • CEO of Endeavour Partners; Expert witness in the DoJ ATT/T-Mobile merger • Senior Lecturer at MIT at the Systems Division • Guest Lecturer at Harvard Business School and London Business School
- 9. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era M ichael Davies spends his tim e advising and teaching Education Experience Expertise Masters of Arts, Strategy Consulting Expert positions University of Cambridge • Chairman, • Senior Lecturer, MIT • Electronic Sciences Endeavour Partners • Guest Lecturer, • Engineering • Chairman, London Business School Mercator Partners Master of Engineering, • Board of Advisors, University of Durham • Principal, US Military Academy, GeoPartners Research Systems Engineering • Cybernetics and Robotics Executive Management • Microelectronics • Expert Witness in AT& T/T- • Head of Strategy, Mobile case • Management Science BellSouth International Department of Justice MBA, (now Vodafone) London Business School • Massachusetts Technology Strategy Consulting Leadership Council • Business strategy, technology • Manager, management and decision • Executive Committee, Boston Consulting Group IEEE science • Consultant, • Doctoral level w ork on systems • Board of Advisors, Braxton Associates dynamics and systems thinking Motorola Research (now Deloitte) Postgraduate work, Engineering • R& D Board, Harvard Business School Telecom New Zealand • Robotics and cybernetics • Innovation & Organization engineer, Mars Electronics 2" 3 October 2012
- 10. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era W hat are you going to do with your future, your life? 3 3 October 2012
- 11. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era App phones dominate value High volume and value: 2.9 billion app phones sold globally, 5.5 billion installed base by creation and capture in the digital 2018; $416 billion in value; important associated service revenues; shift from native to ecosystem HTML5 Developing world will dominate Developing world is largest source of volume with 65% of market in 2018; developed volume; developed world will world leads in device profit with 63% in 2018 dominate value There will be significant difference in adoption, selection and usage across cohorts; the Consumer cohorts shape context major challenge is crossing the chasm to mainstream for digital immigrants in the and behavior developed world End to end experience drives consumers’ purchase criteria, choice, satisfaction, loyalty Complete end-to-end experience and lock-in; complements, such as cloud services, content and accessories become more will drive long-term success important In medium term, major shift to soft Major shift from hard factors (features, functions, form factor, price) in app phones in the factors in purchase criteria developed world to soft factors (usability and aesthetics) Tablets will grow very rapidly, ushering in the post-PC, post-CE era; huge unfilled appetite Tablets explode in short term App phones + cloud + tablet Platforms (2-sided market) for content, commerce, convergence enable new businesses; become dominant digital platform drive asymmetric competition; consumerization of IT The connected home is the next The home is the next critical battleground for consumer choice as app phones and tablets major area for value shift become the dominant control plane and major content consumption devices 4 3 October 2012
- 12. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era Ten reasons why it‟s all about app phones + tablets + cloud services (=algorithm s) Everyone (soon) has one… …that is personalized for them… …w ith them all of the time… …wherever they go… …and they are powerful computing devices… …w ith broadband connectivity… …that enables them to exploit amazing algorithms in the cloud… …and they are intuitively easy to use… …and really exible… …and really easy and cheap to develop applications for. • Everything else becomes an adjunct or accessory 5 3 October 2012
- 13. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era Everything becom es accessories or adjuncts to app phones and tablets and cloud (=algorithm s) Accessory Adjunct Algorithm ac·ces·so·ry ad·junct al·go·rit hm [ak-ses-uh-ree] [aj-uhngkt] [al-guh-rith-uhm] noun, plural -ries, adjective noun noun noun 1. a subordinate or 1. something added 1. a set of rules for supplementary to another thing solving a part, object, or but not essential problem in a the like, used to it. nite number of mainly for steps convenience, attractiveness, safety, etc., as a spotlight on an automobile or a lens cover on a camera. 6 19 October 2011
- 14. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era “Just one word…” Access • o • rithm Alg • o • cessory 7 3 October 2012
- 15. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era Smart phones Dumb things 8 3 October 2012
- 16. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era Global device revenue (in billions of USD) $500 CAGR (2010 – 2018) App phones 21% $400 $300 $200 Connected TV 19% Tablets 28% $100 PC -7% Other connected CE -3% Non-connected CE -19% Feature & basic $0 -16% phones 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 9 3 October 2012
- 17. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era Device pro t by product and geography, $B 2018 $230 B Other non-connected CE Other xed CE Connected TVs App phones represent 64% of PCs pro t by 2018 of all devices, up from 29% in 2011 Tablets (16%) 2010 $130 B Other non-connected CE $ $2 $5 $6 $5 $18 1 Non-connected TVs $0 $1 $0 $1 $1 $4 Other connected xed CE $2 $3 $3 $3 $10 Connected TVs $2 Ld. Lagging dev. JKT North App phones PCs 1 $5 $2 $7 $7 $21 Europe + developing America (64%) Tablets (6%) 1 1 1 $3 $4 $8 Lagging Ld. J K/ T / Europe + North 4X App phones (29%) dev. dev. America $37 $4 $10 $8 $4 $10 Feature and $14 $4 $1 $3 $3 $24 basic phones Feature and basic phones Portable CE 1 1 1 3 $6 Portable CE 10 3 October 2012
- 18. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era 2018 landscape Drivers of choice Device base and spending Developing Developed Soft factors and aesthetics 4.1B units 1.4B 5.5B app phone installed base Look and feel of device Demand $205B $211B $416B app phone sales Brand loyalty opportunity End to end experience $57B $64B $121B tablet sales (Performance no longer $326B Mobile services (excl. conn.) differentiates) $68B Accessories spending Device pro t Developing Developed OS share $59B $91B $150B app phone pro t New /others $15B $23B $38B tablet pro t Business $174 $46 $167 $416 Devices Netw ork Cloud ecosystem $55 $45 $111 PC TV App phone Tablets App stores Post PC, post CE era Apps Connected home Installed 5,501 base iOS, Android and HTML5 Cloud apps 4,098 Technical Personal app phones Shared (household) and tablets tablets architecture TV Algorithms 1,629 1,208 1,004 597 Developing 944 664 1,403 354 566 1,032 Developed Commentary Control Content 544 590 438 Tablet App PC TV Other plane plane plane phone connected CE 12 3 October 2012
- 19. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era Com puting and storage costs fall exponentially, m aking „cloud services‟ incredibly cheap Moore‟s Law - cost per Average hard drive storage cost million calculations per second (Cost / GB, 1984 – 2009) Cost per MIP Cost per GB (log scale) (log scale) $1,000,000 $294,031 $1,000,000 $177,000 $100,000 $100,000 $10,000 $10,000 $1,000 $1,000 $100 $100 $10 $10 $1 35% annual decline $1 45% annual decline $0.10 $0.05 $0.10 $0.07 $0.01 $0.01 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Source: Singularity.com; EndeavourPartners analysis Source: alts.net, cnet.net 16
- 20. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era “The new panel in the iPhone 5 is sim ply rem arkable in quality and if it were a PC m onitor, I 'd give it a Gold Award on the basis of its perform ance” Color gamut Saturation AnandTech 17 3 October 2012
- 21. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era An iPhone is now as fast as recent personal com puters Geekbench 18 3 October 2012
- 22. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era “The re-im agination of nearly everything – powered by new devices + connectivity + UI + beauty…” • Telephony • Books • Newspapers • Music • Life stories • Sound • Magazines • Video consumption • Shopping and commerce • Video creation and production • Healthcare • Home entertainment • Wellness and tness • Television • News and information ow • Navigation • Note taking • Sports information • Drawing • Calling a cab • Photography • Yellow Pages • Diaries • Coupons and local offers • Scrapbooking • Cash registers Mary Meeker at D10, 30 May 2012 20 3 October 2012
- 23. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era W inners and losers ✓ Apple ✓ Google Microsoft ✓ Amazon Intel ✓ Facebook Yahoo! ✓ ARM Sony ✓ Samsung Dell HP ✓ Algorithms Motorola ✓ Smartphones Nokia ✓ Tablets ✓ Cloud PCs and servers ✓ LTE and WiFi 23 9June 2010
- 24. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era The key challenge is wizardry – m aking “ magic” through system level usability Focus on system level usability “ Any suf ciently advanced technology is indistinguishable Effectiveness Get jobs done from magic” Ef ciency Simple, easy to use Arthur C. Clarke’s Third Law Enable a great Satisfaction experience 24 19 October 2011
- 25. The Future is Enchanted Objects • The things we live with are getting smarter • Imagine a chair that plays your Pandora music • A kitchen cabinet that instantly connects you to a loved one • A trash can that reorders household essentials via Amazon…
- 26. David Rose, Roseology, Ditto • The Future is Enchanted Objects • Twitter: @DavidRose • CEO of Ditto, Serial entrepreneur; Vitality/ GlowCaps, Ambient Devices • Enchanted objects, glanceable technology • Research Scientist at the MIT Media Lab, teaching in the Tangible Media Group with Hiroshi Ishii,
- 30. Ambient Orb HyperCello Furby Toumaz Sensor Little Printer IO Brush Nokia Broach Botanicals Ambient Umbrella Nabaztag Hangsters Mobile Nest Thermostat GlowCap Withings Scale Roomba Sifteo Cubes MotorolaActv Pebble Watch Sony SmartWatch IO Bulb Green Wheel LEGO Nike FuelBand Mindstorms Parking Meters Photo Frames Hancock Tower Nike+ Kodak Locket Responsive Anoto Pen APEX Glasses MIT CityCar Amazon Trashcan Guitar Hero Proverbial Wallets Fork evidence for connected objects
- 52. Ari Adler, IDEO • Twitter: @IDEO • Design and Community Lead at IDEO, health and wellness group • Inventor to19 patents • Former MIT Media Lab research assistant
- 53. How might we use connected devices to enhance the experience and efficiency of our homes? Nest learning thermostat Twine smart home sensors www.nest.com www.supermechanical.com/twine/ Yello smart meter and application Withings baby monitor and app www.ideo.com/work/sparzahler-electricity-meter http://www.withings.com/en/babymonitor
- 54. How might we use connected devices to take better control of our own health and wellness? Nike+ FuelBand fitness tracker The Eatery app by Massive Health www.nike.com/fuelband/ eatery.massivehealth.com Zeo sleep tracking system Scanadu diagnostic device www.myzeo.com/sleep/ tinyurl.com/scanadufastco
- 55. How might we use connected devices to effortlessly collect and aggregate data for the greater good? Asthmapolis asthma device and app Ginger.io behavioral analytics platform www.asthmapolis.com www.ginger.io Street Bump app Waze community mapping app http://tinyurl.com/numstreetbump http://www.waze.com/
- 56. Adam Laughlin, ImpulseSave • Twitter: @a_laughlin • Non-profits • Nextstage Evolution • Media Lab (Lifelong Kindergarten) • ImpulseSave
- 57. Do I want to think about it? Yes No Delegate to Phone Object/System
- 59. Our Selves Our Companies Our Governments
- 60. Adam’s Final Words • Mobile interfaces handle the things you want to think about. Objects/Systems handle the rest. • Sensors (especially phone) are systems’ portals into you • Increasingly engineered human experiences for good & harm • Sensors/Systems measure health & well-being • Increasing multiple-bottom-line companies
- 61. Adam’s Final Words Stuff you can play with today: FUNF - funf.org (android sensor data) BSMeter - goo.gl/NH6Q6 (paid) PersonaScope - goo.gl/Ai1xx (paid) Related: Speaker - BostonCHI Nov 13. Human Dynamics - Media Lab Affective Computing - Media Lab Ginger.io Behav.io Great books: Thinking in Systems - goo.gl/SkzKH Reading Virtual Minds V1 - goo.gl/EQJ2P If you are interested in measuring well-being, let’s talk!
- 62. Jennifer Lum, Adelphic Mobile • Twitter: @JenniferLum • Co-founder of Adelphic Mobile • Mentor at 500 Startups and Tech Stars • Serial entrepreneur with Quattro Mobile, and iAd, now part of Apple • Angle investor though Apricot Capital
- 63. Current state of mobile • Mobile phone subs are 5x landline subs and passed landline subscriptions 10 years ago and in the U.S. mobile broadband is ubiquitous at 64% • Tablet installations are 30% and exploding in the U.S. while mobile internet use has passed wired internet use in some emerging countries • Compared to online, mobile advertising is significantly more effective. When mediums are combined ‘mobile only’ holds its own and in some cases outperforms.
- 64. Market opportunity Mobile media consumption is growing exponentially. Ad spend is disproportionately low compared to other media. $10.8B opportunity ~$20B+ opportunity *US Mobile Ad Spending. Source: eMarketer *US Ad Spending vs Time Spent. Source: Flurry
- 65. Market challenges Audience-based buying is an unsolved problem • Buyers: Struggle to reach targeted audiences at scale • Sellers: Struggle to understand and monetize audiences Why hasn’t this been solved? 2) Difficult and Complex problem 1) Mobile is different • Principles • User identification • Data collection • Apps - new media type • Implementation • More data - location, device, behavior Existing ad platforms and technology are ineffective in mobile
- 66. Mobile advertising - the next two years • Mobile Consumer Innovation • Consume more services via mobile and connected devices • Mobile payments 1. Scalable • Advertisers performance • Shift to real-time 1to1 marketing - cross screen • Data sources • Desired action/conversion • Media 2. Creative • Content personalization and programming - cross screen • Monetization strategies
- 67. Ambient intelligence & advertising • Is there a role for advertising in ambient intelligence and if yes, what solutions are most likely to work? • More sensors/data, more personalized and targeted communication • Rich, continuous services delivered from cross- environment • How will consumer data be managed and distributed? • Which payment methods will be most effective?
- 68. Follow the discussion • #MITForum: – Post or ask questions • @MichaelAMDavies • @DavidRose • @JenniferLum • @a_laughlin • @IDEO for Ari • @ScratchMM
Editor's Notes
- #59: What will that information be used for? Sensor technologies help us understand and adapt our environments to suit our goals. Increasing: Sensors that learn about us and our environmentsIncreasing learning human desires and needs (gmail, ginger.io, affectiva, nextstage, mappiness. What do we do with this)?Increasing:Environments that learn about us (dvr that recognizes when you see a show that’s interesting, and automatically records it)Delegating decisions to objects/systems