![Estimating Methods
Analogous (Top Down) estimating – Managers
use expert judgment or similar project costs
[quick, less accurate]
Bottom-Up estimating – People doing work
estimate based on WBS, rolled up into project
estimate [slow, most accurate]
Parametric estimating – Use mathematical model
(i.e. cost per sq ft). [accuracy varies] Two types:
Regression analysis – based on analysis of multiple
data points
Learning Curve – The first unit costs more than the
100th, forecasts efficiency gains](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/cost-management-240428080302-57e9a4fc/85/cost-managementtttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt-ppt-7-320.jpg)
![Estimating Methods
Vendor Bid Analysis – Estimating using bids +
allowances for gaps in bid scope [slow, accuracy
depends on gaps]
Reserve Analysis – Adding contingency to each
activity cost estimates as zero duration item [slow,
overstates cost]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/cost-management-240428080302-57e9a4fc/85/cost-managementtttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt-ppt-8-320.jpg)
cost-managementtttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt.ppt
- 1. Project Cost Management Sections of this presentation were adapted from A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge 3rd Edition, Project Management Institute Inc., © 2004
- 2. Project Cost Management “The processes involved in planning, estimating, budgeting, and controlling costs so that the budget can be completed within the approved budget”
- 3. Why Do We Manage Cost? Part of triple constraint, can’t manage one without the others (scope, time, and quality) Plots of cost and scope against plan can help spot problems early Cumulative Value Time Planned Value (PV) Actual Costs (AC) Earned Value (EV) Today Is this project over/under budget? Is it ahead of/behind schedule?
- 4. Cost Management Key Terms PV - Planned Value, estimated value of the planned work EV – Earned Value, estimated value of work done AC – Actual Cost, what you paid BAC – Budget at Completion, the budget for the total job EAC –Estimate at Completion, what is the total job expected to cost? ETC – Estimate to Complete, forecasted costs to complete job VAC – Variance at Completion, how much over/under budget do we expect to be?
- 5. How Do We Manage Cost? Three processes Cost Estimating Cost Budgeting Cost Control Cost Estimating Cost Budgeting Cost Control
- 6. Cost Estimating Enterprise Environmental Factors Organizational Process Assets Project Scope Statement Analogous estimating Determine resource cost rates Bottom up estimating Parametric estimating Project management software Vendor bid analysis Reserve analysis Cost of quality Inputs Outputs Tools & Techniques Work Breakdown Structure WBS Dictionary Cost Estimating Cost Budgeting Cost Control Project Management Plan •Schedule Mgmt Pln •Staffing Mgmt Pln •Risk Register Activity Cost Estimates Activity Cost Estimates Supporting Detail Requested Changes Cost Management Plan Updates
- 7. Estimating Methods Analogous (Top Down) estimating – Managers use expert judgment or similar project costs [quick, less accurate] Bottom-Up estimating – People doing work estimate based on WBS, rolled up into project estimate [slow, most accurate] Parametric estimating – Use mathematical model (i.e. cost per sq ft). [accuracy varies] Two types: Regression analysis – based on analysis of multiple data points Learning Curve – The first unit costs more than the 100th, forecasts efficiency gains
- 8. Estimating Methods Vendor Bid Analysis – Estimating using bids + allowances for gaps in bid scope [slow, accuracy depends on gaps] Reserve Analysis – Adding contingency to each activity cost estimates as zero duration item [slow, overstates cost]
- 9. Cost Budgeting Project Scope Statement Cost aggregation Reserve analysis Parametric estimating Funding limit reconciliation Inputs Outputs Tools & Techniques Cost Estimating Cost Budgeting Cost Control Cost Baseline Project Funding Requirements Cost Management Plan Updates Requested Changes Work Breakdown Structure WBS Dictionary Activity Cost Estimates Activity Cost Estimates Supporting Detail Project Schedule Resource Calendars Contract Cost Management Plan
- 10. Cost Budgeting Budgeting is allocating costs to work packages to establish a cost baseline to measure project performance Remember Contingency items are for unplanned but required changes it is not to cover things such as: Price escalation Scope & Quality Changes Funding Limit Reconciliation – Smoothing out the project spend to meet management expectations
- 11. Cost Control Cost Baseline Project Funding Requirements Performance Reports Cost change control system Performance measurement analysis Forecasting Project performance reviews Project management software Variance management Inputs Outputs Tools & Techniques Work Performance Information Approved Change Requests Cost Estimating Cost Budgeting Cost Control Project Management Plan Cost Estimate Updates Cost Baseline Updates Performance Measurements Forecasted Completion Requested Changes Recommended Corrective Actions Organizational Process Assets Updates Project Management Plan Updates
- 12. Earned Value Progress is compared against the baseline to determine whether project is ahead of or behind plan Percent complete can be difficult to measure, some managers use rules 50/50 Rule – Assumed 50% complete when task started, final 50% at completion 20/80 Rule – 20% at start 0/100 Rule – No credit until complete Planned Value (PV) – Budgeted Cost Earned Value (EV) – Actual work completed Actual Cost (AC) – Costs incurred Estimate to Complete (ETC) – What’s Left Estimate at Completion (EAC) – What final cost will be
- 13. Earned Value Graph Variance at Completion (VAC) Target Cost & Schedule Schedule Variance (Time) Planned Value (PV) Earned Value (EV)
- 14. Earned Value Formulas NAME FORMULA NOTES Cost Variance (CV) EV-AC Negative = Over budget Positive = Under budget Schedule Variance (SV) EV-PV Negative = Behind Schedule Positive = Ahead of Schedule Cost Performance Index (CPI) EV/AC How much are we getting for every dollar we spend? Schedule Perform Index (SPI) EV/PV Progress as % against plan Estimate to Complete (ETC) EAC-AC How much more do we have to spend? Variance at Completion (VAC) BAC-EAC At the end of the day, how close will we be to plan? Estimate at Completion (EAC) See following slide
- 15. Earned Value Formulas (Cont’d) NAME FORMULA NOTES Estimate at Completion (EAC) BAC/CPI Use if no variances from BAC have occurred AC+ATC Use when original estimate was bad. Actuals + New estimate AC+BAC-EV Use when current variances are not expected to be there in the future AC+(BAC-EV)/CPI Use when current variances are expected to continue
- 16. Barn Exercise You have a project to build a new barn. The specs for building the barn are to construct 4 sides and then an angled roof. Each side of the barn is to take one day to build as is the roof. The budgeted amount is $2,000 per side and $2000 applied to the roof cost. The sides are to be completed one after the other. Today is the end of day four.
- 17. Tricks for Earned Value EV is always first Variance = EV minus something Index = EV divided by something If the formula relates to cost use AC If the formula relates to schedule use PV Interpreting results: negative is bad and positive is good Interpreting results: greater than one is good, less than one is bad PV AC ETC EAC BAC Project Start Current Status
- 18. Terms to Remember Present Value Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Payback Period Benefit Cost Ratio = BCR>1, Payback is greater than the cost Opportunity Cost Sunk Cost Working Capital Straight Line Depreciation Accelerated Depreciation Double Declining Balance Sum of Years Digits Value Analysis (Value Engineering) You won’t be calculating most of these numbers on the test, just remember the concepts for general questions
- 19. Answers to Questions 1 – C 2 – D 3 – B 4 – A 5 – C 6 – B 7 – C 8 – A
- 20. Answers to Questions (Cont’d) What is: Calculation: Answer: Interpretation of Answer: PV $500+$500+$500 $1,500 We should have completed $1500 EV $500+$500+$250 $1,250 We actually completed $1,250 worth of work AC $500+$1000+$250 $1,750 We have actually spent $1,750 BAC $500+$500+$500+$500 $2,000 Our project budget is $2000 CV $1,250 - $1,750 -$500 We are over budget by $500 CPI $1,250/$1,750 0.714 We are only getting $0.71 out of every dollar that we are spending on the project SV $1,250 - $1,500 -$250 We are behind schedule SPI $1,250/$1,500 0.833 We are progressing at 83% of the planned rate EAC $2,000/0.714 $2,801 We currently estimate the project will cost $2,801 ETC $2,801-$1,750 $1,051 We need to spend $1,051 to finish the project VAC $2,000 - $2,801 -$801 We currently expect to be $801 over budget when the project is completed