Demographic Transition in India

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN INDIA
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Thursday, September 9, 2021
----- ARGHYADEEP SAHA
BSc (Hons.) in Geography (UG - V)
ROLL NO – UG/05/BSGEO/2019/017

Listings:
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1. Scene.
2. Demographic Transition Theory.
3. Demographic Transition in India.
4. Understanding India’s Demographic Transition.
5. Demographic Dividend.
6. Opportunities for India caused by the Demographic Dividend.
7. Challenges faced by India.
8. State-wise trends in the Demographic Transition.
9. Results in terms of Statistics.
10. India’s Demographic Conclusion.
11. Bibliography.

Scene:
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• India has conducted a regular decadal census since 1881 that measures population size and composition as
well as decadal growth at the national and subnational levels.
• The year 1951 witnessed the first census of an independent India, recording a total population of 361
million and a moderate annual exponential growth rate of 1.25% during 1941–1951.
• The year 1951 became a turning point because it indicated a population explosion since it multiplied
threefold by 2001.

Demographic Transition Theory:
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• A particular pattern of demographic change from high
fertility and high mortality to low fertility to low
mortality. The above pattern shows how a
society progresses from a rural agrarian society to
urban industrial and modern society.
• The most accepted 5 stages of demographic
transition –
Stage 1: High Population Growth Potential.
Stage 2: Population Explosion.
Stage 3: Population Growth Starts to Level Off.
Stage 4: Stationary Population.
Stage 5: Further Changes in Birth Rates.
Demographic Transition Model and its 5 stages
Source - Our World in Data

Demographic Transition in India:
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• The demographic transition in India started as early as the
1930s with the contraction of the death rates in the country.
• When the death rates started decreasing in the country, India
entered the second stage of its demographic transition.
• But during the years ranging from 1961 to 1970, a very sharp
and prominent reduction in the birth rates in India became
quite evident. This basically marked the end of the second
demographic transition.
• The third phase saw a significant and sharp decline in the death
rates in the country. And as a result of this, the population
started increasing.
• As compared to other developing countries in the world, India’s
reduction in the death rates was faster and more prominent.
Demographic Transition Model of India

Understanding India’s Demographic Transition:
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• India’s 2011 census revealed two key trends regarding India’s demographic transition.
• The first is that the total fertility rate has dropped from 2.9 in 2001 to 2.62 in 2011.
• The second is that the gender balance has deteriorated in recent times, particularly among India’s
youths.
• The first trend is usually taken as an indicator of the demographic transition associated with rising per
capita income.
• The second trend, point to the growing widespread gender imbalance that is taking place in India.
• Social factors and geography were also considered.
• Households in the BIMARU states had more children than those in non-BIMARU states. Rural
households had fewer children than urban households.
• Rising incomes, social background, education and geography all help determine the demographic profile of
India’s youth

Demographic Dividend:
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• Occur when the population of that country goes through a demographic transition from an economy that
was earlier known to be rural and agrarian to an economy that is now more industrialized and urbanized in
nature.
• This change in population takes place due to the following reasons:
• When there is a fall in the birth rate.
• When there is a fall in the mortality rate.
• When there is an increase in longevity.

Opportunities for India caused by the Demographic Dividend:
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• India will possess the youngest working class in the world, as compared to China and other significantly
developed countries.
• The other countries population will comprise the non-working class which in turn will lead to a lack of
adequate labor.
• India can imbue its workforce, which can lead to development as well as the growth of the economy of the
nation.
• During this transition period, the savings of people grow, which leads to more purchasing power of the
people and growth in the economy.

Challenges faced by India:
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• Fail to be productive towards the economy of the country.
• The rate of employability amongst the graduates is not very high.
• Basic education is still very low.
• Unemployment in rural as well as urban sectors of the country.
• More than half of the population in India comes from agriculture.
• Employer paid less than the minimum value.

State-wise trends in the Demographic Transition:
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• Southern states like Kerela and Tamil Nadu are on the verge of finishing their transition phase.
• States in Northeastern India like Tripura, Manipur, and Mizoram, irrespective of their small size are about
to complete their transition as well.
• Pondicherry and Chandigarh are also about to complete their transition .
• States like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, as well as Uttar Pradesh which majorly constitute the
Northern Region of the country are still found to be in the earlier stages of the demographic transition.
• Kerala is ahead of all the states in the country by being in the first position because of its demographic
transitions. State has remained static for a long time.
• Tamil Nadu is the next state where population growth has remained only a little higher than that of
Kerala’s.

Results in terms of Statistics:
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• Four major drivers of population change are –
• Fertility.
• Mortality.
• Family Planning.
• Changes in marriage pattern.
• Changes in fertility levels have been studied using total fertility rate.
• Infant mortality.
• Under 5 years aged mortality.
• Expectation of life at birth.
• Changes in contraceptive use is examined with the help of contraceptive prevalence rate.

Cont’d:
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• Changes in marriage pattern is examined with the help of percentage of women–
• Aged 20 – 24 years.
• Before 18 years.
• Aged 30–34.

Cont’d:
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Population Size China, and India, 2020–2100
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2020 2030 2050 2075 2100
Total
Population
(in
millions)
Years
Share of China and India in the world population
China India
Credits – UN (2019)

Cont’d:
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Crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) for India, 1901–2017.
Years
Birth
&
Death
Rate
(in
person)
Source - For the period 1901–1961, data is from Mukherji (1976). For the period 1971–2017, data is from the annual
statistical report of the Sample Registration System of India for the respective years.

Cont’d:
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Estimated and observed exponential annual population growth rate (%) during 1901–2011 and 2021–2101,
respectively, for India.
Credits – UN (2019)
Population
Growth
Rate
(in
%)
Years

Cont’d:
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Intercensal Change in Percentage and Exponential Annual Growth Rate, India, 1901–2101
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091 2101
Changes
(in
%)
Years
Intercensal Change
% change in population – Exponential Annual Growth Rate (%) –
Credits – Registrar General of India (n.d.-a); Population estimated from UN (2019)

Cont’d:
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Intercensal Change in percentage, and Exponential Annual Growth Rate for Selected States of India, 2001–2011
Credits – NCP 2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Changes/Shares/Rates
(in
%)
States & UTs
Intercensal Change
State Share (%) Absolute Change Exponential Annual Growth Rate (%)

Cont’d:
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Sex Ratio at Birth (Male Births Per 1,000 Female Births) in selected states of India, 1999 - 2016
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Andhra
Pradesh
Assam Bihar Gujarat Haryana Karnataka Kerala Madhya
Pradesh
Maharashtra Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh West Bengal
No.
of
males
per
1000
females
Selected States / UNs
Sex Ratio at Birth
1999 2004 2009 2013 2016
Credits – Sex ratio from the annual statistical report of the Sample Registration System of India

Cont’d:
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Share of the Male and Female Population Out of the Total Population by Age Groups and Dependency Ratios (for
Children, Older People, and Overall), India, 1981–2011 and 2036
Age Group (in
Years)
1981
Male Female
0–4 6.4 6.2
5–9 7.3 6.8
10–14 6.8 6.1
15–19 5.1 4.5
20–24 4.4 4.3
25–29 3.9 3.8
30–34 3.2 3.1
35–39 3 2.9
40–44 2.7 2.4
45–49 2.3 2.1
50–54 2.1 1.7
55–59 1.3 1.2
60 - Till Death 3.3 3.2
Age Group (in
Years)
1991
Male Female
0–4 6.3 6
5–9 6.9 6.5
10–14 6.2 5.6
15–19 5.1 4.4
20–24 4.5 4.4
25–29 4.1 4.2
30–34 3.6 3.4
35–39 3.3 3
40–44 2.7 2.4
45–49 2.3 2.1
50–54 2 1.7
55–59 1.3 1.3
60 - Till Death 3.5 3.3
Age Group (in
Years)
2001
Male Female
0–4 5.6 5.2
5–9 6.5 6
10–14 6.4 5.8
15–19 5.3 4.5
20–24 4.5 4.2
25–29 4.1 4.1
30–34 3.6 3.6
35–39 3.5 3.4
40–44 2.9 2.5
45–49 2.4 2.2
50–54 1.9 1.6
55–59 1.3 1.4
60 - Till Death 3.7 3.8
Age Group (in
Years)
2011
Male Female
0–4 4.9 4.5
5–9 5.5 5
10–14 5.8 5.3
15–19 5.3 4.7
20–24 4.8 4.5
25–29 4.3 4.2
30–34 3.7 3.6
35–39 3.6 3.5
40–44 3.1 2.9
45–49 2.7 2.5
50–54 2.1 1.9
55–59 1.6 1.6
60 - Till Death 4.2 4.4
Age Group (in
Years)
2036
Male Female
0–4 3.3 3
5–9 3.5 3.1
10–14 3.7 3.3
15–19 3.9 3.5
20–24 4 3.6
25–29 4 3.7
30–34 4.2 3.9
35–39 4.3 3.9
40–44 4 3.7
45–49 3.5 3.4
50–54 3.1 3.1
55–59 2.6 2.8
60 - Till Death 7.1 7.9
Credits – Population is taken from the censuses of India 1981, 1991, 2001, and 2011.
Projected population for 2036 is from NCP (2019).

Cont’d:
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Age-sex population pyramids of India, 2036
Age-sex population pyramids of India, 1991
Credits – Data from the census of India, 1991. Credits – NCP (2019).

India’s Demographic Conclusion:
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• Peak at 1.65 billion in 2061.
• Begin to decline after that and reach 1.44 billion in the year 2100.
• Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.
• Kerala state may experience a negative population growth rate around 2036 along with Telangana.
• Changes in fertility and mortality are the two most important demographic factors.

Cont’d:
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Future prospects of the demographic transition for India, 1950–2100.
Credits – Crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR) for India are taken from UN (2019)
Birth
&
Death
Rate
(in
person)
Years

Bibliography:
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• Reference supplementary materials and resources –
• Demographic Transition in India.
• Global Public Health.
• United Nations Population Fund.
• POPULATION PROIECTIONS 2011 – 2036.
• Dyson, T. (2010). Population and development: The demographic transition. Zed Books.
• Krishnamoorthy, S. (1997). India towards population and development goals, UNFPA for United Nations system in India.
Oxford University Press.
• Social Science Open Access Repository.
• Registrar General of India (2020). Sample registration system statistical report for various years. Government of India.
THANK YOU !
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Demographic Transition in India

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