Electrical Load forcasting
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This document provides an overview of load forecasting in the power system planning process. It discusses the need for load forecasting to determine generation, transmission, and distribution capacity needs. Accurate load forecasting is important to avoid excess or insufficient investment. The document outlines different load classification categories and forecasting methodologies. It also examines factors like weather that impact load forecasting and concludes that regular adjustments are needed to forecasts to account for seasonal and other usage changes.
Electrical Load forcasting
- 1. WELCOME
- 2. LOAD FORCASTING PRESENTED BY- BHUPATI BHAKTIMANAS PRADHAN (EE / 1501298212) GUIDED BY- Prof.SRIKANT DASH
- 3. CONTENTS Introduction Need of load forecasting Need of accurate load forecasting Classification of load Forecasting methodology Energy forecasting Commercial sale forecasting Residential sale forecasting Peak demand forecasting Industrial sale forecasting Impact of weather in load forecasting Conclusion References
- 4. Introduction • Load is a general meaning either Demand or Energy. • Forecast refers to projected load requirements determined using a systematic process of defining future loads in sufficient quantitative details to permit important system decision to be made.
- 5. Need of load forecasting ? •Power system planning. •To determine capacity of generation, transmission and distribution system . •The accuracy of a forecast is crucial to any electric utility, since it dictates the timing and characteristics of major system addition. •Energy forecast determine the type of facilities required. •Good forecast reflecting current and future trends, tempered with good judgment, it is key to planning, indeed to financial success.
- 6. Needof Accurate load forecasting ? • Very low forecast results in lost in revenue from sales to utilities or even load curtailment. • Forecast too high can result in severe financial problems due to excessive investment in an electric plant that is not fully utilized or eventually operated at low capacity factor. • Unfortunately, an accurate forecast depends on the judgment of forecaster, and it is impossible to rely strictly on analytical procedures to obtain an accurate forecast.
- 7. Classification of Load • There are five broad categories of load : I) Domestic load II) Commercial Load III) Industrial Load IV) Agricultural Load V) Other Load • Commercial and agricultural loads are characterized by seasonal variations. • Industrial loads are considered base load that contain little weather dependent variations.
- 8. Domestic Loads • This type of load consist mainly of lights, fans, domestic appliances such as heaters, mixers, refrigerators, air conditioners and various motors for pumping and various other small household appliances. • Demand factor = 70 – 100 % • Load Factor = 10 – 15 %
- 9. Commercial Load • This type of load mainly lightning for shops and advertisement boarding, fans, air-conditioning, heating and other electrical appliances used in commercial establishment such a shops, restaurants, market places , etc. • Demand Factor – 90 – 100% • Load Factor – 20 – 30%
- 10. Industrial Load • These loads may be of typical power range : • Small Scale industries – 0 – 20 kw • Medium Scale Industries – 20 – 100 kw • Large scale industries – 100 kw and above. • The large scale industrial load need power over a longer period and which remains fairly uniform throughout the day. • For Large scale industrial load 1. Demand Factor – 70 -80 % 2. Load Factor – 60 – 65 % • For heavy industries 1. Demand Factor – 85 – 90 % 2. Load Factor – 70 – 80 %
- 11. Agricultural Load • This type of load is required for supplying water for irrigation by means of suitable pumps driven by electrical motors . • Load Factor – 15 – 25 % • Demand Factor – 90 – 100 %
- 12. Other Loads •Apart from the load mentioned above, there are other loads such as bulk supplies, street light, traction and government loads which have there own particular characteristics. •The average energy consumed is equal to the power multiplied by 8,760 and load factor.
- 13. Forecasting Methodology • Load Forecasting is simply a systematic procedure for quantitative defining future loads. • Depending upon time period of interest, a specific forecasting procedure may be classified as short term, intermediate or long term technique. • System planning is our main concern and because planning for the addition of new generation, transmission and distribution facilities must begin 4 – 10 years in advance of actual in-service date, we shall be concerned with methodology of intermediate range forecast. • Techniques may be further classified as either deterministic, probalistic, or stochastic.
- 14. Energy Forecasting • Energy forecast tend to be developed using correlation and extrapolation primarily, tempered with sound projections of future conditions. • To arrive at a total energy forecast, the forecasts for residential, commercial and industrial customers are forecasted separately and then combined.
- 15. Residential Sales Forecast Population Method • Residential energy requirements are dependent on: – Residential customers – Population – Per capita energy consumption
- 16. Synthetic Method • Detailed look at each customer • Major factors are: – Saturation level of major appliances – Average energy consumption per appliance – Residential customers • Forecast these factors using extrapolation. • Multiplying the three factors gives the forecast of residential sales.
- 17. Commercial sales forecast • Commercial establishments are service oriented. • Growth patterns are related closely to growth patterns in residential sales. Method 1: • Extrapolate historical commercial sales which is frequently available. Method 2: • Extrapolate the ratio of commercial to residential sales into the future. • Multiply this forecast by residential sales forecast.
- 18. Industrial Sales Forecast • Industrial sales are very closely tied to the overall economy. • Economy is unpredictable over selected periods. • Industrial forecast is by far most difficult. Method 1: • Multiply forecasted production levels by forecasted energy consumption per unit of production. Method 2: • Multiply forecasted number of industrial workers by forecasted energy consumption per worker.
- 19. Impact of weather in load Forecasting • Weather causes variations in domestic load, public lighting, commercial loads etc. Main weather variables that affect the power consumption are: • Temperature • Cloud cover First two factors affect the heating/cooling loads • In load forecast models proper temperature ranges and representative average temperatures which cover all regions of the area served by the electric utility should be selected.
- 20. • Cloud cover is measured in terms of: Height of cloud cover Thickness Cloud amount Time of occurrence and duration before crossing over a population area. • Visibility measurements are made in terms of meters/kilometers with fog indication. • To determine impact of weather variables on load demand, it is essential to analyze data concerning different weather variables through the cross- section of area served by utility and calculate weighted averages for incorporation in the modeling.
- 21. CONCLUSSION The load forecasting has both commercial and technical implications and if not done properly, it may lead to bad planning and inefficient operation of the electrical power systems. The accuracy of the load forecasting is important to both the utility companies as well as the consumers. For this reason, it may be necessary to keep on adjusting based on seasons and other factors that may affect the way consumers use the power. In addition, the forecast should rely on accurate data and best forecasting practices.
- 22. REFERENCES FACTOR AFFECTING SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING, Muhammad Usman Fahad and Naeem Arbab. LOAD FORECASTING Eugene A. Feinberg. LOAD FORECASTING Amanpreet Kaur. AN OVERVIEW OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES Arunesh Kumar Singh, Ibraheem, S. Khatoon, Md. Muazzam . LOAD FORECASTING IN ELECTRIC UTILITY INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING, Juan Pablo Carvallo, Peter Larsen, Alan H. Sanstad, Charles A. Goldman. POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND RELIABILITY, Mr. Akshay M. Kharwade. ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING,,marcelo espinoza, johan a.k. Suykens, ronnie belmans, and bart de moor.