Future of trade - Insights from Discussions to date building on an initial perspective

The
Future
of
Trade

Insights
from
Discussions
Building
on
an
Ini4al
Perspec4ve
by

Gautam
Sashi=al
|
CEO
|
DMCC

Context

The
ini4al
perspec4ve
on
the
Future
of
Trade
kicked
oﬀ
the

Future
Agenda
2.0
discussions.
This
updated
summary
includes
addi4ons

from
events
to
date
to
be
further
challenged,
built
upon
and
enhanced.

Ini4al

Perspec4ves

Q1
2015

Global

Discussions

Q1/2
2015

Insight

Synthesis

Q3
2015

Sharing

Output

Q4
2015

A
New
Order?

We
are
witnessing
the
transi4on
to
a
new
order:
New
na4onal
interests,

new
trading
routes,
new
products
/
services
are
all
emerging.
How
to
ensure

the
development
of
trade
in
this
environment
will
be
key
to
success.

New
Trading
Routes

The
next
decade
will
see
the
post-‐war
routes
eclipsed
by
the
power
of
the

Indian
Ocean
region
with
new
port
construc4on
plus
proposed
railways
from

coast-‐to-‐coast
across
South
America
showing
the
shape
of
things
to
come.

Influence
of
Key
Ci>es

As
they
grow
ci4es
become
increasingly
influen4al
in
their
own
right.
OZen

centres
for
innova4on,
their
reach
stretches
far
beyond
the
confines
of

na4onal
boundaries
as
they
posi4on
themselves
as
centres
of
excellence.

Last
Mile
Efficiency

The
benefits
to
be
gained
from
bringing
the
same
level
of
efficiency
to
the

last
mile
as
there
is
to
the
first
thousand
is
a=rac4ng
a=en4on:
There
will

be
more
focus
on
reducing
inefficiencies
around
the
final
part
of
delivery.

Automated
Trucks

Autonomous
and
driverless
trucks
are
now
star4ng
to
have
impact.
The
vision

of
long-‐distance
platoons
of
trucks
all
running
on
intelligent
highways
without

drivers
has
been
a
topic
for
some
years...
but
the
reality
is
not
far
away.

Rising
Cyber-‐crime

Cyberspace
is
about
to
undergo
yet
another
massive
change
as
the

Internet
of
Things
connects
billions
of
new
devices
making
cyber-‐crime

even
more
challenging
to
prevent
and
control.

Bribery
and
Corrup>on

Non-‐state
actors,
that
have
no
stake
in
the
waterways,
are
more
likely
to

disrupt
them.
More
prosaically,
roadside
checkpoints
cause
delays
but
in

addi4on
they
are
oZen
collec4on
points
for
bribes
and
“safety
money”.

Global
vs.
Bilateral
Agreements

A
key
ques4on
for
the
next
decade
will
be
whether
we
will
be
able
to
achieve

true
global
agreements,
or
will
bilateral
trade
agreements
remain
the
way

by
which
na4ons
can
be=er
manage
and
control
economic
inﬂuence?

Growth
of
Special
Economic
Zones

Although
some
see
limits
to
their
applica4on,
going
forward
Special

Economic
Zones
are
expected
to
play
a
con4nued
major
role
in
providing

the
facili4es
for
accelera4ng
change
and
improving
trade
eﬃciency.

The
Climate
Change
Challenge

Climate
change
can
no
longer
be
ignored.
While
many
are
now
looking
at

improving
the
resilience
of
their
facili4es
to
more
extreme
weather,
how

many
will
also
seek
to
adapt
to
the
new
world
of
4C
of
global
warming?

The
Talent
Challenge

As
the
global
workforce
becomes
more
mobile,
how
will
organisa4ons

a=ract
and
retain
top
talent
and
how
will
governments
ensure
they
provide

them
with
the
relevant
educa4on
that
will
allow
economies
to
thrive?

A
Data
Marketplace

Data
is
a
currency,
it
has
a
value
and
a
price,
and
therefore
requires
a

market
place.
An
ecosystem
for
trading
data
is
emerging
and
anything

that
is
informa4on
is
represented
in
a
new
data
marketplace.

Cross-‐Border
Commerce

Cross-‐border
commerce
is
growing
faster
than
domes4c
commerce
and
so
will

become
increasingly
important
and
influen4al.
Cross-‐border
flow
of
goods,

services
and
finance
could
increase
threefold
to
$85
trillion
by
2025.

Conscious
Stewards

We
are
more
aware
of
the
consequences
of
our
ac4ons:
There
is
a
sense
of

stewardship
of
the
world
-‐
not
only
in
how
we
manage
our
home,
but
also
in

how
we
live
in
our
ecosystem.
We
start
to
behave
as
conscious
stewards.

Fair
Compensa>on

Fairer
prices
for
farmers,
food
producers
and
consumers
are
driven
by
the

elimina4on
of
subsidies,
the
introduc4on
of
sustainability
accoun4ng
into

the
corporate
P&L
and
increased
transparency
and
traceability
of
supply.

Infec>ous
Diseases
Post-‐Ebola

The
world
prepares
for
infec4ous
disease
outbreaks
with
renewed
vigor.

There
is
increased
prepara4on
and
coordina4on
among
both
public
and

provider
stakeholders
and
greater
investments
in
early
warning
systems.

Seamless
Ubiquitous
Payments

The
ability
to
‘transact
anywhere’
with
integrated,
sophis4cated

authen4ca4on
such
as
biometrics
increases:
More
contactless
technology

and
a
convergence
of
standards,
enable
global
informa4on
exchanges.

Emerging
Norms

Inﬂuen4al
developing
economies
drive
new
rules
and
prac4ces
where

individuals
and
organisa4ons
design
for
risk
and
vola4lity
-‐
and
are

no
longer
limited
by
legacy
business
models
and
infrastructure.

Global
vs.
Local

Technology
is
by
its
very
nature
global
and
data
does
not
respect
na4onal

boundaries.
Can
na4on
states
con4nue
to
set
the
rules
or
will
tension
in
global

interoperability
drive
us
to
design
for
global
standards
but
with
localised
use?

Rising
Cyber
Security

Greater
interconnec4vity
and
the
Internet
of
Things
creates
new

vulnerabili4es
for
governments
and
corpora4ons
-‐
as
the
unscrupulous
and

the
criminal
increasingly
seek
to
exploit
weakness
and
destroy
systems.

Simplified
Last
Mile
Delivery

Seamless,
integrated
and
shared
last-‐mile
delivery
will
replace

inefficient
compe44on
and
duplica4on
of
goods
distribu4on:
Efficiency
in

moving
things
will
be
as
important
as
efficiency
in
moving
people.

The
Funding
Challenge

In
austere
ﬁnancial
4mes
there
is
a
signiﬁcant
challenge
for

governments
being
able
to
fund
the
maintenance
of
the
exis4ng

transport
system
and
investment
in
new
infrastructure.

Unpredictable
Growth

In
some
countries,
economies
struggle
to
maintain
growth
as
increased

produc4vity
and
entrepreneurship
is
limited
by
ﬂuctua4ng
regula4on

and
the
challenge
of
running
a
free
market
economy.

Peak
Globalisa>on

Globalisa4on
is
reaching
its
limits.
Wages
in
export
sectors
in
both
China
and

India
are
now
rela4vely
high
and
companies
are
moving
their
produc4on
closer

to
their
markets,
wan4ng
to
be
able
to
respond
more
ﬂexibly
to
demand.

Skill
Concentra>ons

The
growth
of
the
nomadic
global
elite
ci4zenship
accelerates
the

concentra4on
of
the
high-‐skill
/
high-‐reward
opportuni4es
within
a
select

group
of
globally-‐connected
ci4zens,
who
move
ahead
of
the
urban
pack.

Consumer-‐Driven
Trade

A
new
trade
order
leaves
behind
the
monolithic,
legacy
ins4tu4ons
of
the

post-‐war
era:
Trade
is
empowered
from
the
bo=om-‐up,
with
conscious

ci4zenship
driving
more
nimble
self-‐regula4on
and
a
reduc4on
of
tariﬀs.

Appropriate
Regula>on

More
appropriate
regula4on
drives
hot-‐spots
of
trade
growth
through

special
economic
zones
and
free-‐zones
that
result
in
the
movement
of

business,
people
and
wealth.
Protec4onist
regimes
lose
out
as
a
result.

New
Exchange
and
Distribu>on
Models

Connected
consumers
co-‐create
new
forms
of
exchange
and
distribu4on,

which
are
sensi4ve
to
cultural
diﬀerences
and
oZen
local
in
nature.

This

reduces
waste
and
maintains
the
individuality
and
variety
of
products.

Free-‐trade
Zones
“In-‐a-‐Box”

Free-‐trade
zones
rise
in
popularity
and
are
replicated
globally.

As
they
help
to
enable
economic
growth
and
security,
even
in
challenging

environments,
commercial
success
comes
as
they
expand
and
merge.

Supply
Webs
Not
Chains

The
shiZ
from
centralised
produc4on
to
decentralised
manufacturing
drives

many
to
take
a
‘smaller
and
distributed’
approach:
Global
supply
chains
are

replaced
by
more
regional,
consumer-‐orientated
supply
webs
and
networks.

Catering
for
the
Displaced

Climate
change
drives
migra4on,
which
in
turn
creates
new
markets
where

consumer
needs
are
based
on
survival.
There
is
more
beneﬁt
in
providing
low

cost
goods
suppor4ng
a
basic
lifestyle
rather
than
aspira4onal
luxury.

Sleeping
Eagle
-‐
Waking
Dragon

China
uses
economic
might
and
soZ
diplomacy
to
reshape
the
world
order,

usurp
the
dollar
and
dominate
world
trade.
As
a
result
migra4on
to
Asia

increases,
changing
established
market
places.
Africa
will
suﬀer
as
a
result.

Interna>onal
Security
–
a
Public
/
Private
Partnership?

Increasing
global
unrest
and
rising
interna4onal
fundamentalism
challenge

trade
routes
and
places
of
produc4on.
Corporates
enhance
government

security
to
protect
assets
and
maintain
safe
working
environments.

Future
Agenda

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