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Getting the Most Out of Hyperion Planning: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?

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finitsolutions

Finit Solutions, established in 2002, specializes in financial reporting solutions and predictive planning using Hyperion products, boasting a customer base of over 400 Oracle Hyperion projects. The document outlines services, predictive planning techniques, and methodologies, including forecasting methods like ARIMA and various exponential smoothing and seasonal forecasting techniques. It emphasizes a client-centric approach with a focus on building personal relationships and maximizing customer success.

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www.finitsolutions.com Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? August 22, 2014 Cindy Eichner ceichner@finitsolutions.com
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 2 - ©2014 • Company founded in 2002. • 70+ employees in 20+ states (mostly East Coast, South, and Midwest) • 80+ HFM Clients • Recognized as the Market Leader in ARM/FCM • Recognized as the World Leader in FDM Project Work and FDM Customizations • 50+ Planning / Essbase Clients • Finit has managed many of the largest EPM projects in the U.S. (including the largest roll-out of HFM in North America) • Our employees are generally CPA’s, MBA’s, and have extensive Hyperion Product and Financial Reporting backgrounds • Implementation Services • Full cycle implementations • Infrastructure and Data Services • Project / Program Management • Product Upgrades • Redesign / Enhancements • Dedicated Support – Finit Answers • Access to Hyperion SME’s (Dedicated support team and guaranteed response times) • Customer Service Focus • Flexible Time and Material support packages with a ‘Pay as you Go’ option • Technical and Admin / Functional Support • Contact Greg Barrett (gbarrett@finitsolutions.com) for info Finit Overview
www.finitsolutions.com Finit Solutions Introduction Finit as a company: Who we are…. Why? How?
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? WHY is Finit Here? www.finitsolutions.com - 4 - ©2014 • Making and delivering personalized financial reporting solutions and experiences. • Listening, questioning, and analyzing • Building relationships - not company to company - person to person • We are Makers and Doers
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? HOW do we achieve our beliefs? Running Finit like a Family • Investment in our Employees • All owners actively involved in the business www.finitsolutions.com - 5 - ©2014 • No debt or external owners • Focus on the client; not profitability • Employees; no subcontractors • Compensation model based on client satisfaction
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Finit Values www.finitsolutions.com - 6 - ©2014 • The values on which we ask you to provide consultant feedback:
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Finit’s Client Service www.finitsolutions.com - 7 - ©2014 Our values, culture and approach to becoming a trusted advisor to clients has led to 100% customer success for every Finit client (200+) and for every Oracle Hyperion project (400+).
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 8 - ©2014 • Some Finit Clients
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? About the Presenter www.finitsolutions.com - 9 - ©2014 Cindy Eichner ceichner@finitsolutions.com • Director of Finit’s Planning and Essbase Practice • Delivering performance management solutions for over 30 years while specializing in Hyperion products for over 17 years • Certified implementation specialist • Essbase • Hyperion Planning • Hyperion Financial Management (HFM) • Hyperion Data Relationship Management (DRM) • Frequent speaker at KScope
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 10 - ©2014 Questions and Answers
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 11 - ©2014 Agenda • What is it? • When to use it • How to use it • Installation • Forms • User activities • Demonstration • Questions and Answers
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: What? www.finitsolutions.com - 12 - ©2014 • Optional extension to the Smart View Excel add-in for Hyperion Planning • Sophisticated time-series statistical techniques through Crystal Ball • Simple roll out • Input forms with historical periods and future periods in valid format • Users run the predictions and choose what to paste and/or save or compare to
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Crystal Ball Predictor www.finitsolutions.com - 13 - ©2014 • Predictive Planning includes most of the functionality of Crystal Ball Predictor • Originally designed to work with spreadsheet data; i.e. perfect for Smart View • Cannot be used with forms on the web but forms are necessary to run predictions • Predictions vary significantly depending upon the options selected and amount of history
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning Forecast Methods www.finitsolutions.com - 14 - ©2014 • ARIMA Time-series Forecasting • Classic Time-series Forecasting • Non-seasonal • Single Moving Average (SMA) • Double Moving Average (DMA) • Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) • Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) • Seasonal • Seasonal Additive • Seasonal Multiplicative • Holt-Winters’ Additive • Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? ARIMA Time-series Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 15 - ©2014 • Autoregressive integrated moving average • Also known as the Box-Jenkins methodology • Steps taken: • Model identification and selection • Estimation of autoregressive (AR), integration or differencing (I), and moving average (MA) parameters • Model checking • May be used in conjunction with seasonal and non-seasonal data
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Classic Non-seasonal Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 16 - ©2014 • Single Moving Average (SMA) • Averages last several periods resulting in a straight, flat line forecast • Best for volatile data with no trend or seasonality • Double Moving Average (DMA) • Applies the moving average to historical data and the projected data resulting in a straight, sloped-line forecast • Best for data with a trend but no seasonality
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Classic Non-seasonal Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 17 - ©2014 • Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) • Weights all historical data giving more weight to recent data resulting in straight, flat-line forecasts • Best for volatile data with no trend or seasonality • Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) • Weights the historical data and the projected data resulting in a straight, sloped-line forecast • Best for data with a trend but no seasonality
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Classic Seasonal Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 18 - ©2014 • Seasonal Additive • Adds a seasonal adjustment to the forecast level resulting in a curved forecast that reproduces the seasonal changes • Best for data with no trend but with seasonality that does not increase over time • Seasonal Multiplicative • Multiplies a seasonal adjustment by the forecast level resulting in a curved forecast that reproduces the seasonal changes • Best for data with no trend but with seasonality that does increase or decrease over time
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Classic Seasonal Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 19 - ©2014 • Holt-Winters’ Additive • Adds the seasonal factor to the trended forecast resulting in a curved seasonal forecast • Best for data with trend and seasonality that does not increase over time • Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative • Multiplies the trended forecast by the seasonality resulting in a curved forecast showing seasonal changes • Best for data with trend and seasonality that increases over time
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Building a Plan or Forecast www.finitsolutions.com - 20 - ©2014 • Planning cycles • Budget, Annual Operating Plan, Forecasts, LRP • Planning techniques/methodologies • Bottom-up • Top-down • Zero Based • Targets • Allocations • Rolling
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: When? www.finitsolutions.com - 21 - ©2014 • What do users do now? • Look at history • Look at trends • Adjust based upon changes to different factors • Build and link workbooks • Use drivers like rates and ratios • Back into numbers • Allocate • Gut feel • Guess! • Predictive Planning can help!
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: When? www.finitsolutions.com - 22 - ©2014 • Use it to create a plan • Often used to validate plans • What kind of data can be predicted? • Sales • Costs • Expenses • Units • Headcount • Anything! • It is an optional feature
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: How? www.finitsolutions.com - 23 - ©2014 • Version 11.1.2.2 or later of Hyperion Planning and Smart View • Security Roles • Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In • Create valid forms • Settings • Make predictions • View and analyze the results
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Security Roles www.finitsolutions.com - 24 - ©2014 • Users must be assigned at least two roles: • Planner • Ad Hoc User • Set up data forms by those with at least one of these roles: • Administrator • Interactive User
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In www.finitsolutions.com - 25 - ©2014 • Download the Client Installers zip file • Extract the files
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In www.finitsolutions.com - 26 - ©2014 • Both 32-bit and 64-bit are available depending upon the version of MS Office installed
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In www.finitsolutions.com - 27 - ©2014 • Run the PredictivePlanning.exe or PredictivePlanning-x64.exe and follow the prompts
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In www.finitsolutions.com - 28 - ©2014 • Open a valid form in Smart View • “Predict” button should be available on the Planning ribbon
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Create Valid Forms www.finitsolutions.com - 29 - ©2014 • A Time axis with Year, Period, or both • Neither Year nor Period can be on the opposite axis • A series axis with something other than time • Scenario and Version may be on either axis • Forms cannot be empty • No ad hoc forms
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 30 - ©2014 Valid Forms
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 31 - ©2014 Valid Form
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning Ribbon www.finitsolutions.com - 32 - ©2014 • Run  View  Analyze
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 33 - ©2014 • Data Source and historical date range • Map Names: data series to scenarios/versions • Historical, Comparison, and Prediction scenarios • Member Selection • Lowest, highest, or all levels • Options Run: Set Up Data Form
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 34 - ©2014 Run: Set Up Data Form: Data Source
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Historical Data -> Forecasting Accuracy www.finitsolutions.com - 35 - ©2014 • Should have twice as much historical data as prediction points • For example, two years of historical data to predict one year • At least two complete seasonal cycles should be available to detect seasonality • Missing values are interpolated • Outliers are normalized • Too many missing values or outliers will result in an error or warning
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 36 - ©2014 Run: Set Up Data Form: Map Names
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Data Series www.finitsolutions.com - 37 - ©2014 • Historical • Required • Comparison • Optional • Predictions • Optional • Base • Best • Worse • Can automatically paste into existing scenarios
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 38 - ©2014 Run: Set Up Data Form: Member Selection
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Bottom-up vs. Top-down Predictions www.finitsolutions.com - 39 - ©2014 • Bottom-up uses lowest level data • Most accurate • Top-down uses upper level members • For forms built to push data down • Useful when detailed historical data is not available • Full predictions choose all members • Can skip read only members
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 40 - ©2014 Run: Set Up Data Form: Options
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Prediction Options www.finitsolutions.com - 41 - ©2014 • Seasonality (automatic is the default) • If seasonality occurs over a year and the form has quarters then enter 4 periods for manual settings • Forecasting methodologies (default is all 3) • Error measure (RMSE is the default) • Prediction periods (based on form is default) • Prediction periods should be less than half of history • Prediction Interval (2.5% and 97.5% is default) • Defines the range for best and worst case
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Run: Set Up Data Form: Set Default www.finitsolutions.com - 42 - ©2014 • Only Administrators or Interactive Users can set application and form defaults • Use the Set Default button • Users can override the defaults • If defaults are not set then the factory defaults are used • Individual form defaults take precedence over application defaults • Set application defaults first
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 43 - ©2014 Run: Predict
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 44 - ©2014 Run: Predict
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictions Accuracy www.finitsolutions.com - 45 - ©2014 • Accuracy value is 100% minus the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) • Accuracy ranges from 0 to 100% • 90 to 100%: Good • 80 to 90%: Fair • 0 to 80%: Poor • Measures the quality of the predictions and not the accuracy of the predictions • Accuracy measures the ability to pick up strong patterns in the historical data
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? View: Comparison Views www.finitsolutions.com - 46 - ©2014 • Chart displayed by default • Data and statistics may also be viewed • Views may be created and changed • Comparison data series selections in the Map Names section of Set up Data Form results in comparison views • Chart preferences may be selected
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Chart Preferences www.finitsolutions.com - 47 - ©2014 • Predictions shown in charts by default • Highlight seasonality • Highlight missing values and outliers • Show separator between past / future data • Show current view name in chart • 3D chart • Transparency • Gridlines • Legend
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 48 - ©2014 Analyze • Filter Results • Prediction status • Prediction accuracy • Error measure • Paste Results • Current, all, filtered, selected members • From series to scenario/version on form • Entire range or selected periods • Create Report • Extract Data
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 49 - ©2014 Analyze: Filter Results
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 50 - ©2014 Analyze: Paste Results
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 51 - ©2014 Analyze: Create Report
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 52 - ©2014 Analyze: Create Report
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 53 - ©2014 Analyze: Extract Data
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 54 - ©2014 Analyze: Extract Data
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 55 - ©2014 Demonstration
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 56 - ©2014 Methods - Seasonal
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 57 - ©2014 Methods – Non-seasonal
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 58 - ©2014 Methods - All
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning www.finitsolutions.com - 59 - ©2014 • Simple to implement • Flexible • Optional • Can be used to create plans • Or to validate plans • Powerful • Modifying default settings requires advanced knowledge
Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Thank You for attending! www.finitsolutions.com - 60 - ©2014 Past Webinars: http://www.finitsolutions.com/webinar.html Presenter Cindy Eichner ceichner@finitsolutions.com General Questions Greg Barrett gbarrett@finitsolutions.com Joe Mizerk jmizerk@finitsolutions.com Questions? Email us for a copy of the slides or link to the recording insights@finitsolutions.com

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Getting the Most Out of Hyperion Planning: Predictive Planning: What? When? How?

  • 1. www.finitsolutions.com Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? August 22, 2014 Cindy Eichner ceichner@finitsolutions.com
  • 2. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 2 - ©2014 • Company founded in 2002. • 70+ employees in 20+ states (mostly East Coast, South, and Midwest) • 80+ HFM Clients • Recognized as the Market Leader in ARM/FCM • Recognized as the World Leader in FDM Project Work and FDM Customizations • 50+ Planning / Essbase Clients • Finit has managed many of the largest EPM projects in the U.S. (including the largest roll-out of HFM in North America) • Our employees are generally CPA’s, MBA’s, and have extensive Hyperion Product and Financial Reporting backgrounds • Implementation Services • Full cycle implementations • Infrastructure and Data Services • Project / Program Management • Product Upgrades • Redesign / Enhancements • Dedicated Support – Finit Answers • Access to Hyperion SME’s (Dedicated support team and guaranteed response times) • Customer Service Focus • Flexible Time and Material support packages with a ‘Pay as you Go’ option • Technical and Admin / Functional Support • Contact Greg Barrett (gbarrett@finitsolutions.com) for info Finit Overview
  • 3. www.finitsolutions.com Finit Solutions Introduction Finit as a company: Who we are…. Why? How?
  • 4. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? WHY is Finit Here? www.finitsolutions.com - 4 - ©2014 • Making and delivering personalized financial reporting solutions and experiences. • Listening, questioning, and analyzing • Building relationships - not company to company - person to person • We are Makers and Doers
  • 5. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? HOW do we achieve our beliefs? Running Finit like a Family • Investment in our Employees • All owners actively involved in the business www.finitsolutions.com - 5 - ©2014 • No debt or external owners • Focus on the client; not profitability • Employees; no subcontractors • Compensation model based on client satisfaction
  • 6. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Finit Values www.finitsolutions.com - 6 - ©2014 • The values on which we ask you to provide consultant feedback:
  • 7. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Finit’s Client Service www.finitsolutions.com - 7 - ©2014 Our values, culture and approach to becoming a trusted advisor to clients has led to 100% customer success for every Finit client (200+) and for every Oracle Hyperion project (400+).
  • 8. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 8 - ©2014 • Some Finit Clients
  • 9. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? About the Presenter www.finitsolutions.com - 9 - ©2014 Cindy Eichner ceichner@finitsolutions.com • Director of Finit’s Planning and Essbase Practice • Delivering performance management solutions for over 30 years while specializing in Hyperion products for over 17 years • Certified implementation specialist • Essbase • Hyperion Planning • Hyperion Financial Management (HFM) • Hyperion Data Relationship Management (DRM) • Frequent speaker at KScope
  • 10. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 10 - ©2014 Questions and Answers
  • 11. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 11 - ©2014 Agenda • What is it? • When to use it • How to use it • Installation • Forms • User activities • Demonstration • Questions and Answers
  • 12. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: What? www.finitsolutions.com - 12 - ©2014 • Optional extension to the Smart View Excel add-in for Hyperion Planning • Sophisticated time-series statistical techniques through Crystal Ball • Simple roll out • Input forms with historical periods and future periods in valid format • Users run the predictions and choose what to paste and/or save or compare to
  • 13. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Crystal Ball Predictor www.finitsolutions.com - 13 - ©2014 • Predictive Planning includes most of the functionality of Crystal Ball Predictor • Originally designed to work with spreadsheet data; i.e. perfect for Smart View • Cannot be used with forms on the web but forms are necessary to run predictions • Predictions vary significantly depending upon the options selected and amount of history
  • 14. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning Forecast Methods www.finitsolutions.com - 14 - ©2014 • ARIMA Time-series Forecasting • Classic Time-series Forecasting • Non-seasonal • Single Moving Average (SMA) • Double Moving Average (DMA) • Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) • Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) • Seasonal • Seasonal Additive • Seasonal Multiplicative • Holt-Winters’ Additive • Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative
  • 15. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? ARIMA Time-series Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 15 - ©2014 • Autoregressive integrated moving average • Also known as the Box-Jenkins methodology • Steps taken: • Model identification and selection • Estimation of autoregressive (AR), integration or differencing (I), and moving average (MA) parameters • Model checking • May be used in conjunction with seasonal and non-seasonal data
  • 16. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Classic Non-seasonal Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 16 - ©2014 • Single Moving Average (SMA) • Averages last several periods resulting in a straight, flat line forecast • Best for volatile data with no trend or seasonality • Double Moving Average (DMA) • Applies the moving average to historical data and the projected data resulting in a straight, sloped-line forecast • Best for data with a trend but no seasonality
  • 17. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Classic Non-seasonal Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 17 - ©2014 • Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) • Weights all historical data giving more weight to recent data resulting in straight, flat-line forecasts • Best for volatile data with no trend or seasonality • Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) • Weights the historical data and the projected data resulting in a straight, sloped-line forecast • Best for data with a trend but no seasonality
  • 18. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Classic Seasonal Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 18 - ©2014 • Seasonal Additive • Adds a seasonal adjustment to the forecast level resulting in a curved forecast that reproduces the seasonal changes • Best for data with no trend but with seasonality that does not increase over time • Seasonal Multiplicative • Multiplies a seasonal adjustment by the forecast level resulting in a curved forecast that reproduces the seasonal changes • Best for data with no trend but with seasonality that does increase or decrease over time
  • 19. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Classic Seasonal Forecasting www.finitsolutions.com - 19 - ©2014 • Holt-Winters’ Additive • Adds the seasonal factor to the trended forecast resulting in a curved seasonal forecast • Best for data with trend and seasonality that does not increase over time • Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative • Multiplies the trended forecast by the seasonality resulting in a curved forecast showing seasonal changes • Best for data with trend and seasonality that increases over time
  • 20. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Building a Plan or Forecast www.finitsolutions.com - 20 - ©2014 • Planning cycles • Budget, Annual Operating Plan, Forecasts, LRP • Planning techniques/methodologies • Bottom-up • Top-down • Zero Based • Targets • Allocations • Rolling
  • 21. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: When? www.finitsolutions.com - 21 - ©2014 • What do users do now? • Look at history • Look at trends • Adjust based upon changes to different factors • Build and link workbooks • Use drivers like rates and ratios • Back into numbers • Allocate • Gut feel • Guess! • Predictive Planning can help!
  • 22. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: When? www.finitsolutions.com - 22 - ©2014 • Use it to create a plan • Often used to validate plans • What kind of data can be predicted? • Sales • Costs • Expenses • Units • Headcount • Anything! • It is an optional feature
  • 23. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: How? www.finitsolutions.com - 23 - ©2014 • Version 11.1.2.2 or later of Hyperion Planning and Smart View • Security Roles • Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In • Create valid forms • Settings • Make predictions • View and analyze the results
  • 24. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Security Roles www.finitsolutions.com - 24 - ©2014 • Users must be assigned at least two roles: • Planner • Ad Hoc User • Set up data forms by those with at least one of these roles: • Administrator • Interactive User
  • 25. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In www.finitsolutions.com - 25 - ©2014 • Download the Client Installers zip file • Extract the files
  • 26. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In www.finitsolutions.com - 26 - ©2014 • Both 32-bit and 64-bit are available depending upon the version of MS Office installed
  • 27. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In www.finitsolutions.com - 27 - ©2014 • Run the PredictivePlanning.exe or PredictivePlanning-x64.exe and follow the prompts
  • 28. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Install Predictive Planning Excel Add-In www.finitsolutions.com - 28 - ©2014 • Open a valid form in Smart View • “Predict” button should be available on the Planning ribbon
  • 29. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Create Valid Forms www.finitsolutions.com - 29 - ©2014 • A Time axis with Year, Period, or both • Neither Year nor Period can be on the opposite axis • A series axis with something other than time • Scenario and Version may be on either axis • Forms cannot be empty • No ad hoc forms
  • 30. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 30 - ©2014 Valid Forms
  • 31. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 31 - ©2014 Valid Form
  • 32. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning Ribbon www.finitsolutions.com - 32 - ©2014 • Run  View  Analyze
  • 33. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 33 - ©2014 • Data Source and historical date range • Map Names: data series to scenarios/versions • Historical, Comparison, and Prediction scenarios • Member Selection • Lowest, highest, or all levels • Options Run: Set Up Data Form
  • 34. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 34 - ©2014 Run: Set Up Data Form: Data Source
  • 35. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Historical Data -> Forecasting Accuracy www.finitsolutions.com - 35 - ©2014 • Should have twice as much historical data as prediction points • For example, two years of historical data to predict one year • At least two complete seasonal cycles should be available to detect seasonality • Missing values are interpolated • Outliers are normalized • Too many missing values or outliers will result in an error or warning
  • 36. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 36 - ©2014 Run: Set Up Data Form: Map Names
  • 37. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Data Series www.finitsolutions.com - 37 - ©2014 • Historical • Required • Comparison • Optional • Predictions • Optional • Base • Best • Worse • Can automatically paste into existing scenarios
  • 38. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 38 - ©2014 Run: Set Up Data Form: Member Selection
  • 39. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Bottom-up vs. Top-down Predictions www.finitsolutions.com - 39 - ©2014 • Bottom-up uses lowest level data • Most accurate • Top-down uses upper level members • For forms built to push data down • Useful when detailed historical data is not available • Full predictions choose all members • Can skip read only members
  • 40. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 40 - ©2014 Run: Set Up Data Form: Options
  • 41. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Prediction Options www.finitsolutions.com - 41 - ©2014 • Seasonality (automatic is the default) • If seasonality occurs over a year and the form has quarters then enter 4 periods for manual settings • Forecasting methodologies (default is all 3) • Error measure (RMSE is the default) • Prediction periods (based on form is default) • Prediction periods should be less than half of history • Prediction Interval (2.5% and 97.5% is default) • Defines the range for best and worst case
  • 42. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Run: Set Up Data Form: Set Default www.finitsolutions.com - 42 - ©2014 • Only Administrators or Interactive Users can set application and form defaults • Use the Set Default button • Users can override the defaults • If defaults are not set then the factory defaults are used • Individual form defaults take precedence over application defaults • Set application defaults first
  • 43. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 43 - ©2014 Run: Predict
  • 44. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 44 - ©2014 Run: Predict
  • 45. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictions Accuracy www.finitsolutions.com - 45 - ©2014 • Accuracy value is 100% minus the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) • Accuracy ranges from 0 to 100% • 90 to 100%: Good • 80 to 90%: Fair • 0 to 80%: Poor • Measures the quality of the predictions and not the accuracy of the predictions • Accuracy measures the ability to pick up strong patterns in the historical data
  • 46. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? View: Comparison Views www.finitsolutions.com - 46 - ©2014 • Chart displayed by default • Data and statistics may also be viewed • Views may be created and changed • Comparison data series selections in the Map Names section of Set up Data Form results in comparison views • Chart preferences may be selected
  • 47. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Chart Preferences www.finitsolutions.com - 47 - ©2014 • Predictions shown in charts by default • Highlight seasonality • Highlight missing values and outliers • Show separator between past / future data • Show current view name in chart • 3D chart • Transparency • Gridlines • Legend
  • 48. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 48 - ©2014 Analyze • Filter Results • Prediction status • Prediction accuracy • Error measure • Paste Results • Current, all, filtered, selected members • From series to scenario/version on form • Entire range or selected periods • Create Report • Extract Data
  • 49. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 49 - ©2014 Analyze: Filter Results
  • 50. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 50 - ©2014 Analyze: Paste Results
  • 51. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 51 - ©2014 Analyze: Create Report
  • 52. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 52 - ©2014 Analyze: Create Report
  • 53. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 53 - ©2014 Analyze: Extract Data
  • 54. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 54 - ©2014 Analyze: Extract Data
  • 55. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 55 - ©2014 Demonstration
  • 56. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 56 - ©2014 Methods - Seasonal
  • 57. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 57 - ©2014 Methods – Non-seasonal
  • 58. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? www.finitsolutions.com - 58 - ©2014 Methods - All
  • 59. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Predictive Planning www.finitsolutions.com - 59 - ©2014 • Simple to implement • Flexible • Optional • Can be used to create plans • Or to validate plans • Powerful • Modifying default settings requires advanced knowledge
  • 60. Getting the Most Out of EPM: Predictive Planning: What? When? How? Thank You for attending! www.finitsolutions.com - 60 - ©2014 Past Webinars: http://www.finitsolutions.com/webinar.html Presenter Cindy Eichner ceichner@finitsolutions.com General Questions Greg Barrett gbarrett@finitsolutions.com Joe Mizerk jmizerk@finitsolutions.com Questions? Email us for a copy of the slides or link to the recording insights@finitsolutions.com

Editor's Notes