How To Survive And Thrive
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Jordan Rohan of Clearmeadow Partners presented on macro trends in the internet economy and social media. The presentation reviewed the slowing US economy's impact on online commerce and advertising. It showed decelerating growth rates for Google and Yahoo! as users shifted to more window shopping online. While social media continues growing, portals are declining. Twitter saw extraordinary growth but retains only 40% of users, and its profitability and threat to other media are unclear.
![Introduction Clearmeadow Partners , is a digital media advisory firm Firm’s mission: to help companies of all sizes accelerate growth in digital revenue Profitable companies with defensible market positions Advisory services, capital raising, and business development services Want to chat? [email_address] DPAC Conference](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/howtosurviveandthrive-090512222634-phpapp01/85/How-To-Survive-And-Thrive-2-320.jpg)
![Yahoo! Search: …“ search volume was up 11% worldwide… people are spending time online … searching for a job not for a hotel room in Las Vegas.” “ double digit growth in volume but revenue per search (RPS) down significantly” “ It’s like online window shopping” Display: …“class 2 (non-guaranteed display advertising) revenues are growing double the rate of class 1 (guaranteed display advertising) revenues because of the economy” Organizational Inefficiencies: “We had one product management person for every three engineers… too many people running around [expletive] telling engineers what to do” – Carol Bartz DPAC Conference](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/howtosurviveandthrive-090512222634-phpapp01/85/How-To-Survive-And-Thrive-10-320.jpg)
![More Info [email_address] DPAC Conference Presentation will be available at www.clearmeadow.com](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/howtosurviveandthrive-090512222634-phpapp01/85/How-To-Survive-And-Thrive-19-320.jpg)
How To Survive And Thrive
- 1. Perspectives on the Internet, the Economy, and Social Media Jordan Rohan Clearmeadow Partners Presentation to DPAC May 12 th , 2009 DPAC Conference
- 2. Introduction Clearmeadow Partners , is a digital media advisory firm Firm’s mission: to help companies of all sizes accelerate growth in digital revenue Profitable companies with defensible market positions Advisory services, capital raising, and business development services Want to chat? [email_address] DPAC Conference
- 3. Agenda Review of Macro Trends The Economy’s Impact on Online Commerce and Advertising – Google, Yahoo!, eBay and Amazon Slow Decline of Portals Twitter DPAC Conference
- 4. S&P 500 Up 32% from March Bottom…. but still down 35% since SIS 2008 DPAC Conference Internets S&P 500 A rally of 57% required to get back to even!
- 5. Negatives: Corporate Debt Spreads Remain Massively Wide DPAC Conference Spreads Have Eased, but Remain Highly Elevated DPAC Fall ‘08 1.5 Years Ago DPAC Summer ‘08
- 6. Public Markets Have Re-Valued Internet DPAC Conference
- 7. Decelerating 1Q Growth Rates DPAC Conference -3,634 bp -1,891 bp - 2,878 bp -3,178 bp
- 8. Google – Decelerating Growth Rates DPAC Conference Rest of World U.S. U.K. 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 United States 29% 27% 22% 13% 4% United Kingdom 39% 29% 17% -1% -9% Rest of World 64% 61% 52% 34% 16%
- 9. Google Search: “Users are still searching but they’re buying less. Ultimately, what that really means is that the ads are converting less. More window and comparison shopping, purchasing lower priced goods” Display: “.. branding oriented display campaigns remain challenging in Q1 as our advertisers slowed their spend relative to the performance-based advertising” Global Regions: “…EMEA is beginning to experience the slowdown seen in other countries. Ireland and Spain were clearly weaker while Germany was a relative bright spot….Outside the U.S. and Europe, China and Brazil performed reasonably well…” DPAC Conference
- 10. Yahoo! Search: …“ search volume was up 11% worldwide… people are spending time online … searching for a job not for a hotel room in Las Vegas.” “ double digit growth in volume but revenue per search (RPS) down significantly” “ It’s like online window shopping” Display: …“class 2 (non-guaranteed display advertising) revenues are growing double the rate of class 1 (guaranteed display advertising) revenues because of the economy” Organizational Inefficiencies: “We had one product management person for every three engineers… too many people running around [expletive] telling engineers what to do” – Carol Bartz DPAC Conference
- 11. Social Media Continues to Grow ….while portals decline… DPAC Conference
- 12. Social Media is Fantastic Consumer Application DPAC Conference … but only marginally profitable… Source: Comscore, Clearmeadow
- 13. Twitter – Extraordinary Growth in Audience DPAC Conference 17x Growth in Past Year
- 14. Twitter is…. A notable advancement in communication... that plays to the desire among some to communicate constantly driven by higher usage of mobile messaging and smart phones that can help to reinforce a public image especially for celebrities that need the incremental exposure the least (Oprah, Ashton,...) with the potential to destroy/cannibalize content sites and traditional media: existing broadcast and publishing business models may suffer as Twitter’s minute-by-minute updates from journalists reduces appointment viewing online and broadcast forms If you already know what will be in the local sports section in tomorrow's paper…..why pay for the subscription? Why go to the website? DPAC Conference
- 15. Twitter is NOT…. A massive multi-billion dollar Internet ecosystem… Instant messaging was a breakthrough for ICQ (Israeli company sold to AOL). Technology made very little for anyone but the founders and venture capitalists. Marketers never figured out how to commercialize IM broadly. Twitter seems similar. Nor is it a particularly compelling format for search: User/audience is not looking to transact or to respond Unclear how compelling the format will be for brand advertisers Not impervious to competition from Microsoft or Google Unless one of those companies acquires Twitter first DPAC Conference
- 16. Retention Rates – Twitter is only 40% DPAC Conference Source: Nielsen MySpace Facebook Twitter Twitter Retention Rate of ~40% is Low, Relative to other Social Media
- 17. Internet Reach and Retention Levels DPAC Conference High Retention Rates Required for Mass Audience Source: Nielsen
- 18. Trends in social platforms DPAC Conference Source: Google Trends
- 19. More Info [email_address] DPAC Conference Presentation will be available at www.clearmeadow.com