ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.ppt

Christopher R. Barnes
University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Summary of the objectives,
activities and future plans
of the ITU JTF

Science and Society: Global Ocean Health
 Key ocean health issues: Include global warming, acidification,
extinctions and loss of biodiversity
 Long-term disruptions: Ocean temperature is key factor, particularly
related to future changes with global warming and sea level rise
 Short-term disruptions: Extent and impact of periodic seabed and
coastal destruction, and ecosystem modification, by tsunamis and
slope failures
 Monitoring: Health and status of marine environment could be
monitored in real-time on a global basis through a new generation of
ocean mini-observatories

Establishing the JTF
 The recent joint initiative between three UN agencies
proposes to develop trans-ocean mini-observatories
to measure changing seafloor temperatures and
hazards over several decades
 A Joint Task Force (JTF), established in 2012 by the
International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
of UNESCO, is examining novel uses for submarine
telecommunication cables

JTF Activities: the green cable initiative
 A wide network of mini-observatories could be established at
many places across the world's ocean floors to measure these
important parameters accurately over several decades
 The initiative addresses two main issues: a) need for sustained
climate-quality data from sparsely observed deep oceans and
continental slopes, but extending into coastal waters; and b)
desire to increase the reliability and integrity of the global
tsunami warning networks
 Presently, plans are being developed to launch a pilot project
with active involvement of cable industry players and existing
ocean observatory researchers

Ocean and global scales – what is required?
 Widely spaced locations okay
 Reduced sensor count okay
 Evenly spaced fixed locations preferred
 Ability for 40 Hz plus frequency of sensing
 Real time data
 No site visits after deployment
 Sensors:
Pressure
Temperature
Ground acceleration

JTF Activities: Three ITU reports commissioned
in 2012
6
Rhett Butler Kent Bressie Peter Phibbs

JTF Activities: established six committees;
annual workshops
 Executive (Chris Barnes)
 Science and Society (Rhett Butler)
 Engineering (Chris Meinig)
 Business Model (Michael Costin/Antoine Lecroart)
 Legal (Kent Bressie)
 Publicity, Outreach and Marketing (David Meldrum/TBD)
More details on activities given later in this Workshop
Annual workshops (Rome ‘11, Paris ‘12, Madrid ‘13)

Threats to society and need for scientific data
 Anthropogenic forcing and earth system response (World
petroleum use set a new record in 2012 of 88.9 million
barrels/day):
Global temperature increase
Polar ice cap melting
Ocean circulation change
Sea level rise
 Natural threats and hazards:
Tsunamis; slope failures
 What is reversible, over what time, and/or what is
sustainable and affordable?

Temperature change (1750-2100, IPCC)

UNEP warns of catastrophic permafrost
melt by 2100
 Melting permafrost could account for 40% of global
greenhouse gas emissions and must be considered
by governments at climate talks in Doha, warned the
UN Environment Programme (UNEP).
 Researchers have found that melting permafrost
could emit 43 to 135 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by
2100 and up to 415 gigatonnes by 2200.
 This would blow apart hopes of keeping global
warming below 20C on pre-industrial levels.

Global sea level rise (1900-2100; IPCC)

Ocean Warming Causes Sea Level Rise
Church et al.
(2011)

Future flood losses in major coastal cities
“Here we provide a quantification of present and future flood losses in
the 136 largest coastal cities. Using a new database of urban protection
and different assumptions on adaptation, we account for existing and
future flood defences. Average global flood losses in 2005 are
estimated to be approximately US$6 billion per year, increasing to
US$52 billion by 2050 with projected socio-economic change alone.
With climate change and subsidence, present protection will need to be
upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses of US$1 trillion or more per
year. Even if adaptation investments maintain constant flood probability,
subsidence and sea-level rise will increase global flood losses to
US$60–63 billion per year in 2050.”
Hallegate et al. Nature Climate Change 3, 802–806 (2013)

 AABW twice NADW volume
 Spreads north from Antarctic
 Dominates SW Atlantic Abyss
 Dominates entire deep Pacific
 AABW twice NADW volume
AABW
NADW
Atlantic Pacific
(Johnson, 2008)
AABW Dominates the Abyss
Atlantic Ocean Pacific Ocean

GFDL climate model simulations project that the global thermohaline circulation will decrease in
intensity as greenhouse gas warming occurs (enhanced precipitation and runoff on high latitude
continents). In 4xCO2 experiment, thermohaline circulation essentially disappears in GFDL model.

Short-term disruptions: seabed destruction and
ecosystem modification by tsunamis and associated
slope failures
 Major tsunamis occurred several times in last decade, associated
with megathrust earthquakes between Mw 7.7 and 9.1 in Sumatra
(2004), Java (2006), US Samoa (2009), Mantawai (2010), Chile
(2010) and Japan (2011) resulting in severe loss of life and
billions of dollars of anthropogenic, ecosystem and environmental
damage.
 Reducing such losses and mitigating damage is key factor in
developing tsunami warning systems (Bernard and Robinson,
2009; Whitmore, 2009).
17

18
Tsunami waves swept away
houses and cars in northern
Japan and pushed ships
aground.
The tsunami waves traveled far
inland, the wave of debris racing
across the farmland, carrying
boats and houses with it.
Houses were washed away by tsunami
in Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture in eastern
Japan, after Japan was struck by a
magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the
northeastern coast. New York Times
Magnitude 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Friday, March 11, 2011 at 05:46:23 UTC
The tsunami, seen crashing into
homes in Natori, Miyagi prefecture. AP

JAPAN - Fukushima No. 1 (Daiichi) plant:
devastating losses
BEFORE
AFTER

This tsunami
propagation forecast
model shows the
forecast maximum
tsunami wave height
(in cm). Ocean floor
bathymetry affects
the wave height
because a tsunami
moves the seawater
all the way to the
floor of the ocean.
This led to a Pacific
wide tsunami warning
being issued.

Projected travel times for
the arrival of the tsunami
waves across the Pacific.
Nearby the earthquake
there are only minutes to
evacuate. However, in
many other regions there
is advance warning.
A tsunami map shows
projected travel times for the
Pacific Ocean. This map
indicates forecasted times
only, not that a wave
traveling those distances
has actually been observed.
NOAA

NEPTUNE Canada network
(+ DONET, OOI, EMSO, MACHO, China…)

23
Arrival of Japanese tsunami, within tidal cycle, at 3 NC node sites, 11 March 2011

The JTF Initiative: the future
The deep ocean is largely unknown….
 How could submarine cables be used as a real-time global network
to monitor climate change and provide tsunami warnings?
 A new generation of regional scientific cabled ocean observatories
is emerging at selected sites, but with a need and opportunity to
extend observations and monitoring over much wider area of the
global oceans.
 Submarine telecommunication cables equipped with sensors to
measure key variables (e.g. water temperature, pressure and
acceleration) on ocean floor are viewed as vital to monitor climate
change and to provide tsunami warnings.

JTF Future: Dual-use Submarine Cables for Ocean/Climate
Monitoring and Disaster Warning

Future systems:
Proposed Arctic Fibre cable route:
Tokyo to London

Evaluation of the JTF initiative
 Pro:
 Distributed seabed sensors across oceans have unique value
 Without such sensors we cannot fully understand ocean
processes
 Submarine telecommunications systems offer a platform for
these sensors
 Supporting such sensors would be a positive gesture by
system owners and suppliers
 Con:
 Changes to repeaters are a serious issue
 Commercial and legal issues will be system specific
 Who pays is unresolved

Technical feasibility
 Appears technically feasible at this stage
 More iterations required to match science goals with
telecom requirements
 Next steps
 Detailed technical requirement document to be
produced (Mallin Proposal)
 Continue to pursue ongoing improvements in sensors
(Sci/Soc & Eng Comms + industry)
 Trial deployment required to demonstrate feasibility and
value of data (Pilot Project)

Accelerating Ocean Exploration
“Recently, however, exploration has taken on a more urgent
imperative: to record the substantial changes occurring in largely
undocumented regions of the ocean. With half of the ocean more
than 10 kilometers from the nearest depth sounding, ecosystem
function in the deep sea still a mystery, and no first-order
baseline for many globally important ocean processes, the
current pace of exploration is woefully inadequate to address this
daunting task, especially as the planet responds to changes in
climate. To meet this challenge, future ocean exploration must
depart dramatically from the classical ship-based expeditions of
the past devoted to mapping and sampling.”
29
Marcia McNutt, Editor-in-Chief of Science. August, 2013 editorial:

Conclusions
 This JTF initiative has real merit, responding to urgent societal needs
 To be successful it requires:
 technical support from industry
 cooperation from owners and suppliers
 iteration between scientists and industry
 initial funding for proof of concept (pilot project)
 operational business model once concept is proven and costs are better
known
 Science and society are looking to industry to make these ideas a reality
 The new global data are critical for understanding and managing ocean
health, ecosystems, and for mitigation strategies for future climate change
and natural hazards

Thank you….
.…any questions?

Objectives: JTF Terms of Reference
www.itu.int/ITU-T/climatechange/task-force/sc/
 Study and evaluate scientific, engineering, business, and societal benefits, opportunities, challenges and risks associated to the
use of submarine telecommunications cables for ocean and climate monitoring and disaster warning, as well as legal aspects of
such use;
 Develop a strategy and roadmap that could lead to enabling the availability of submarine repeaters equipped with scientific
sensors for climate monitoring and disaster risk reduction such as pressure, temperature, salinity/conductivity, seismic,
hydroacoustic and cable voltage in the near future;
 Analyze the development of projects that could include renovation and relocation of retired out-of-service cables for disaster
warning, ocean and climate monitoring;
 Cooperate closely with the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC) to investigate and report on the technical feasibility
of incorporating the required scientific sensors into the design, manufacture, installation and operation of submarine repeaters
in a safe manner without affecting cable systems and telecommunication signals, and avoiding risks that could affect the normal
operation of the cables;
 Consider a business model of how sensor data from submarine cables could be provided and could be made available for
scientific purposes and societal benefit;
 Identify financing models and opportunities to promote the development of ocean climate monitoring and disaster warning
systems by the use of submarine cables;
 Consider ways to further promote the implementation of the legal regime, as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the
Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and other instruments, for the protection of submarine cables, including awareness building and
mobilization of support at the national and global levels;
 Organize similar workshops to report on the progress;
 Ensure that the outcomes of the above efforts/activities take into account and are consistent with international law, as reflected
in UNCLOS;
 Invite ITU to consider providing secretariat support for the joint task force.

Additional Observations are Needed
NEPTUNE Canada
Critical for US
Lack of Observations
High threat Expensive O&M and
High Vandalism
High currents
Near Field Threat
Lack of Observations

ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.ppt

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