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Ian Miles  –  Manchester Institute of Innovation Research MBS - University of Manchester Ian.Miles@mbs.ac.uk  Knowledge Economy  and   Information Society
Course material should be available on webct – but in the meantime go to http://www.freewebs.com/mioir/keisintro.htm
Issues this course will include: How do people understand the terms “Knowledge Economy” and “Information Society” Why are these important?  How, and for whom? What are useful ways of thinking about these concepts? Is there really something new being pointed to? If so, is this something NOW, or  in the future?  Is it useful to talk of  the  Knowledge Economy, the Information Society - or about Economies and Societies? What is the role of new technology in this? What is a sociotechnical approach? What does this mean in terms of issues like: Innovation? New ways of conducting business: e-business, Electronic Commerce? Work and Employment, Skills and Organisation? The “knowledge” and “information” industries - new and traditional? Everyday life, consumption, social affairs, politics? Policies – for Information Society and policies and government more widely?
What do we mean? Why should we care? Knowledge Economy  and   Information Society
Many alternative terms INFORMATION Informational KNOWLEDGE Knowledge-based, knowledge-driven… CREATIVE POST -industrial Post-modern, Post-capitalist, Post-Fordist…. Hyper industrial , Late industrial, New industrial… Society Economy Age World  … . civilisation , etc. Particular feature of a new era Trans-cendence of an era Extension of an era Why? Why the different terms?  and  Why the fuss?
Contemporary Change Many important changes in economy and society  (but there have been for hundreds of years – so what is different now??) Some are extensions of long-term trends  (but enough quantitative change becomes qualitative change – are there critical points?). Others are a matter of something new  ( but what is new is a matter of definition – and what is new  and  important?)
Are terms like Knowledge “Economy” and  “Information Society” useful?  For what?  Views vary ... All sound and fury - not really much serious change A lot of action, but no strong common themes, no central axis for a new social formation A lot of action, but the ground-rules stay the same A lot of change, some fundamentals are shifting A lot of change, shaking the foundations of institutional structures Immense change in the nature of societies – value creation, equality, power, leadership, etc…
Contemporary Change Many important changes in economy and society  Some are extensions of long-term trends Others are a matter of something new  What are trends, what is new   and what is new that involves  INFORMATION and/or KNOWLEDGE ?
3 types of discourse Policy and Politics  – especially OECD, EU Business and management Social science The result is that meanings and discourses are fluid, subject to fashion, sectional interest Journalists, other media
Googling Is this really scientific? If not, how could it be made more so? What else could “IS” refer to? What do we know of the methodology? These were 2007 results: in 2008 they became 4.5m and 116k 71,000 20,200,000 "Information Society" Google Scholar Google
Googling Is this really scientific? If not, how could it be made more so? What else could “IS” refer to? What do we know of the methodology? 40,300 1,080,000 “ Knowledge economy” Google Scholar Google
Google Google Scholar on IS, KE and related terms Information Society  Google scholar Google 
Google Google Scholar on IS, KE and related terms Information Society  Google scholar Google 
Googles 2 Looking at how frequently terms are associated together – e.g. “IS” + “IT”* *but note that terms are variable – e.g. IT = ICT ~  New Tech  Google hits
Googles 2 Proceeding with  Google hits
Frank Webster on Approaches to IS TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC OCCUPATIONAL SPATIAL CULTURAL *will this apply to KE too? Theories of the Information Society  identifies 5 different types of definition of IS*…
Starting Point for Discussion - Webster’s set: TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC OCCUPATIONAL SPATIAL CULTURAL Can you identify important ways in which KE and IS might be new/distinctive in terms of these five factors.  Describe these in a few words – not more than 10 words for each.  Which are the most important items?  What would be good indicators of, or evidence for, these changes taking place/developing at particular speeds or scales?
Key Features Information Society Knowledge Economy TECHNOLOGICAL 1)Hard to differentiate; so common list: Internet; computers, comm standards, e-devices; cross-discipline techs,  2) Diffusion of tech from large institutions to individuals, empowerment: Internet – user-generated content and software 3) IS – advent of computers; KIS: mode 2; biotechnologies
Key Features ECONOMIC Globalisation, labour mobility, IGOs OECD, G8; standards like euro; business changes – reduced transaction costs, disintermediation;  tech fundamental and inescapable to business IS – e-business; KE – online education Information Society Knowledge Economy
Key Features OCCUPATIONAL Information Society Knowledge Economy From manufacturing to services; blue to white collar;  More employment in tech amnd inf sectors; homework; end of 9 to 5, flexibility (tech enabled); end of lifelong E and growth of contractual work IS: outsourcing; KE: increased automation and ….??????
Key Features spatiAL Information Society Knowledge Economy (winging it) Time-space compression; global networking; project-based work collaboration Shrinking world; KE – alliances and networking; sharing knowledge resources
Key Features CULTURAL Information Society Knowledge Economy 1 internationalism of labour, multi-internat teams;  2 Subliminal change in lives with new communication eg through blogs, email, myspace personalisation; two-way conversations.  Accountability (ability to rate politicians, teachers) FoI etc. 3 IS: tend to create uniform culture globally; KE – microsocieties like virtual communities (though common artefacts etc).
3 main lines of explanation in social theory Sociocultural   change - postmodernism, risk society, etc. Socioeconomic  change  –  sectoral and occupational  services & postindustrial society,   Machlup/Porat  approaches – and  managerial change  - postFordism, “new times”,  KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY . Sociotechnical ,  technological change: IT revolution (earlier: scientific-technological revolution) Culture:   Content of Information,  society of signs Economy:   Volume of activity, strategies of agents – specific sectors or generic? Technical knowledge:   Ways of transforming world Cultural industries New technology, new media industries
Some issues in explanation Data, information, knowledge, content Information products, information processing Information and knowledge sectors vs Information and knowledge activities Evolutionary vs revolutionary change
Post Industrial Society   Employment, Value-added shifts from  Agriculture   Industry   Services “ March through the sectors” to the tertiary sector compensates for job loss in manufacturing through automation  (IT!) Food  Goods   Services: driven by shifts in demand (??)  Not just sectoral change New service class, forms of work End of ideology Classic: Bell, 1972  The Coming of Post Industrial Society US………………..………………….................Europe Generally Positive Eurocriticism
PIS    IS and KE Machlup….   Knowledge (equated with information… )  statistics but not overall aggregation…. Porat ….  THE information economy as measured by information work and workers Many commentators anchor analysis in Machlup ( ->knowledge economy), but much attention paid to Porat’s graphic  “information sector” analysis
Information   Society   Agriculture    Traditional Industry    Traditional Services   New Services (a quaternary, “information sector” - plus some New Industry) But not just sectoral change: growth of information-intensity across all sectors Information workers & knowledge classes expanding and becoming prominent New ways of working – “disintermediation, “end of hierarchy” And  ….  end of history! Classics: Porat, Alvin Toffler  The Third Wave Japan …....….... US …....……. Europe Europessimism
The “Information Sector” Quantitative analysis was pioneered by  Machlup  & colleagues: talked of “knowledge” but tended to develop statistics of information activities and outputs (with little aggregation) Porat  had a major impact, despite obscure publication, probably due to striking graphical presentation in terms of a  single  aggregated  category  of information workers.  This was endlessly recycled.
Porat’s Picture 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1860  1880  1900  1920  1940  1960  1980 4 sector aggregation of US workforce Info Serv Mfg Agr Agricultural      Industrial     Information
Porat Information Occupations (adopted by OECD) Information Producers Scientific & Technical Market Search/Coordination Information Gatherers Consultative Services Information producers nec Information Distributors Educators Communication Workers Information Processors Administrative & Managerial Process Control &  Supervisory Clerical & Related Information Infrastructure Information Machine Workers Postal & Telecommunications
Problems with this “Information Sector” Approach “ Information Occupations” are not the only Information-Processors. They are specialised and visible ... but are they more significant, more sophisticated?  Would new IT be used to replace human effort especially here? Problems of  Classification :  (a) Boundary Cases (b) Heterogeneity Periodisation  issues – in what way is “information society” (in this view) now a new stage rather than a step in a trend?
A Sociotechnical Approach Sociotechnical approach  – technological proponents, plus innovation studies analysis: view of  new  IT underpinning a new  technological revolution Industrial excitement about new technological capabilities (80s “explosion”). Ferment of discussion around ideas of “long waves”, periods/stages of capitalist development, sociotechnical regimes… .. and advances in innovation analysis  (classes of innovation)
      Information Society All  sectors process information New Information and Communication Technologies, new forms of traded information, new communications services, provide  potential for change  in role and style of information processing Opportunities  for transformation of all sectors, activities, many products Information Societies are ones where these transformations are widely underway or effected.  (how to assess this…?)
      Knowledge Economy Less of a technological focus…. Less specifically information technology… Greater reliance on innovation and thus on innovation-facilitating knowledge in industry – increasing R&D, dependence on hi-tech products and processes (Other types of knowledge important too – for innovation and coordination – thus greater share of knowledge workers and use of KIBS) Increased investment in knowledge production (=R&D), distribution (=education), management (knowledge management), etc.
So what does this mean? What do the claims about KE and IS mean – if they are accurate – for: Business? Education? Policy?
Additional Powerpoints If there’s time, we’ll discuss the content of these slides today …  we will take up the discussion further in future seminars Check out course guide, Website for background readings for next week, on IT and IS statistics.
End of Presentation (if there is not time for the remaining slides!)
Derivation of “Information” Latin:  forma  – shape, character of something Informare  – to give something shape (also  informatio -  a concept) Inform  – early English – give form, imbue something. Informing -  shaping someone’s mind, teaching, training. Information -  14 th  century meaning – the act of  informing  someone.  15 th  century – the knowledge communicated Content of a message; patterning of data
Origins of term “IS” Some credit Umesao Tadao (Faculty of Science, Kyoto University) as applying the term "Information Society" (Johoka Shakai) as early as 1960; others date this to1963.  Between 1964 and 1966  Hoso Asahi  (Rising Sun Broadcasting) was running a series on “Sociology in Information Societies”. There was apparently also discussion of "informatization" (Johoka) in Japan even earlier. Term taken up in US in ’70s and took off in ’80s. See Duff’s introduction in  Information Society Studies ; and try your own web searching!
Sophisticated “Information” Approaches Further development of  Knowledge economy  analyses (informed by Machlup, but drawing heavily on innovation theory and other approaches). Measuring Flows  for macroanalysis and mangement (Information/ Communications Audits… and other approaches) Mapping  different types of information activity - consideration of different functions and economic positions. From the Harvard map to the Houghton model…
Information Maps  (Harvard, Houghton) Comm  Info  services  services Info and comm    Info equipment    products SERVICES (Immaterial Products) PRODUCTS (Material Goods) FORM / CONDUIT SUBSTANCE/ CONTENT
Houghton Information Map Post, courier Legal, accounting Paper, filing cabinets Business forms Magazines, books BASIC TELEPHONY CALL TELEPHONY SERVICES BCS & TRANSMISSION LEASED LINE & PSDN SERVICES LINE. TRANSMISSION & BROADCASTING EQUIPMENT SWITCH, LAN, WAN, DATA EQUIPMENT TERMINAL & PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT COMPUTER EQUIPMENT SYSTEMS SOFTWARE NETWORK SOFTWARE NETWORKED CONTENT PACKAGED SOFTWARE NETWORKS & SERVICES HIGHER LEVEL NETWORK SERVICES PROFESSIONAL SERVICES COMPUTER, COMMS & SOFTWARE SERVICES SERVICES (Immaterial Products) PRODUCTS (Material Goods) FORM / CONDUIT SUBSTANCE/ CONTENT
Sociotechnical Approach to the IT revolution New  knowledge  of effecting useful transformations    new practices a new heartland technology – when this new knowledge produces major improvement in capacity to effect pervasive transformations This promotes dramatic change in availability of a core element of production Meaning the use of new production equipment  Organised in new production processes changed logic of production And probably generating new products for industrial and consumer use (and military!) Technological revolutions:
Opportunities are grasped… Innovation in and around new IT New processes of production, new products  Labour, Capital, Knowledge inputs Changed use of factors of production  Changes in organisational structure Changed linkages between organisations Changed consumption … leading to widespread change Not IMPACTS – strategies, counterstrategies, partial knowledge and visions

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Keis01 Intro 2008

  • 1. Ian Miles – Manchester Institute of Innovation Research MBS - University of Manchester Ian.Miles@mbs.ac.uk Knowledge Economy and Information Society
  • 2. Course material should be available on webct – but in the meantime go to http://www.freewebs.com/mioir/keisintro.htm
  • 3. Issues this course will include: How do people understand the terms “Knowledge Economy” and “Information Society” Why are these important? How, and for whom? What are useful ways of thinking about these concepts? Is there really something new being pointed to? If so, is this something NOW, or in the future? Is it useful to talk of the Knowledge Economy, the Information Society - or about Economies and Societies? What is the role of new technology in this? What is a sociotechnical approach? What does this mean in terms of issues like: Innovation? New ways of conducting business: e-business, Electronic Commerce? Work and Employment, Skills and Organisation? The “knowledge” and “information” industries - new and traditional? Everyday life, consumption, social affairs, politics? Policies – for Information Society and policies and government more widely?
  • 4. What do we mean? Why should we care? Knowledge Economy and Information Society
  • 5. Many alternative terms INFORMATION Informational KNOWLEDGE Knowledge-based, knowledge-driven… CREATIVE POST -industrial Post-modern, Post-capitalist, Post-Fordist…. Hyper industrial , Late industrial, New industrial… Society Economy Age World … . civilisation , etc. Particular feature of a new era Trans-cendence of an era Extension of an era Why? Why the different terms? and Why the fuss?
  • 6. Contemporary Change Many important changes in economy and society (but there have been for hundreds of years – so what is different now??) Some are extensions of long-term trends (but enough quantitative change becomes qualitative change – are there critical points?). Others are a matter of something new ( but what is new is a matter of definition – and what is new and important?)
  • 7. Are terms like Knowledge “Economy” and “Information Society” useful? For what? Views vary ... All sound and fury - not really much serious change A lot of action, but no strong common themes, no central axis for a new social formation A lot of action, but the ground-rules stay the same A lot of change, some fundamentals are shifting A lot of change, shaking the foundations of institutional structures Immense change in the nature of societies – value creation, equality, power, leadership, etc…
  • 8. Contemporary Change Many important changes in economy and society Some are extensions of long-term trends Others are a matter of something new What are trends, what is new and what is new that involves INFORMATION and/or KNOWLEDGE ?
  • 9. 3 types of discourse Policy and Politics – especially OECD, EU Business and management Social science The result is that meanings and discourses are fluid, subject to fashion, sectional interest Journalists, other media
  • 10. Googling Is this really scientific? If not, how could it be made more so? What else could “IS” refer to? What do we know of the methodology? These were 2007 results: in 2008 they became 4.5m and 116k 71,000 20,200,000 "Information Society" Google Scholar Google
  • 11. Googling Is this really scientific? If not, how could it be made more so? What else could “IS” refer to? What do we know of the methodology? 40,300 1,080,000 “ Knowledge economy” Google Scholar Google
  • 12. Google Google Scholar on IS, KE and related terms Information Society  Google scholar Google 
  • 13. Google Google Scholar on IS, KE and related terms Information Society  Google scholar Google 
  • 14. Googles 2 Looking at how frequently terms are associated together – e.g. “IS” + “IT”* *but note that terms are variable – e.g. IT = ICT ~ New Tech  Google hits
  • 15. Googles 2 Proceeding with  Google hits
  • 16. Frank Webster on Approaches to IS TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC OCCUPATIONAL SPATIAL CULTURAL *will this apply to KE too? Theories of the Information Society identifies 5 different types of definition of IS*…
  • 17. Starting Point for Discussion - Webster’s set: TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC OCCUPATIONAL SPATIAL CULTURAL Can you identify important ways in which KE and IS might be new/distinctive in terms of these five factors. Describe these in a few words – not more than 10 words for each. Which are the most important items? What would be good indicators of, or evidence for, these changes taking place/developing at particular speeds or scales?
  • 18. Key Features Information Society Knowledge Economy TECHNOLOGICAL 1)Hard to differentiate; so common list: Internet; computers, comm standards, e-devices; cross-discipline techs, 2) Diffusion of tech from large institutions to individuals, empowerment: Internet – user-generated content and software 3) IS – advent of computers; KIS: mode 2; biotechnologies
  • 19. Key Features ECONOMIC Globalisation, labour mobility, IGOs OECD, G8; standards like euro; business changes – reduced transaction costs, disintermediation; tech fundamental and inescapable to business IS – e-business; KE – online education Information Society Knowledge Economy
  • 20. Key Features OCCUPATIONAL Information Society Knowledge Economy From manufacturing to services; blue to white collar; More employment in tech amnd inf sectors; homework; end of 9 to 5, flexibility (tech enabled); end of lifelong E and growth of contractual work IS: outsourcing; KE: increased automation and ….??????
  • 21. Key Features spatiAL Information Society Knowledge Economy (winging it) Time-space compression; global networking; project-based work collaboration Shrinking world; KE – alliances and networking; sharing knowledge resources
  • 22. Key Features CULTURAL Information Society Knowledge Economy 1 internationalism of labour, multi-internat teams; 2 Subliminal change in lives with new communication eg through blogs, email, myspace personalisation; two-way conversations. Accountability (ability to rate politicians, teachers) FoI etc. 3 IS: tend to create uniform culture globally; KE – microsocieties like virtual communities (though common artefacts etc).
  • 23. 3 main lines of explanation in social theory Sociocultural change - postmodernism, risk society, etc. Socioeconomic change – sectoral and occupational services & postindustrial society, Machlup/Porat approaches – and managerial change - postFordism, “new times”, KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY . Sociotechnical , technological change: IT revolution (earlier: scientific-technological revolution) Culture: Content of Information, society of signs Economy: Volume of activity, strategies of agents – specific sectors or generic? Technical knowledge: Ways of transforming world Cultural industries New technology, new media industries
  • 24. Some issues in explanation Data, information, knowledge, content Information products, information processing Information and knowledge sectors vs Information and knowledge activities Evolutionary vs revolutionary change
  • 25. Post Industrial Society Employment, Value-added shifts from Agriculture  Industry  Services “ March through the sectors” to the tertiary sector compensates for job loss in manufacturing through automation (IT!) Food  Goods  Services: driven by shifts in demand (??) Not just sectoral change New service class, forms of work End of ideology Classic: Bell, 1972 The Coming of Post Industrial Society US………………..………………….................Europe Generally Positive Eurocriticism
  • 26. PIS  IS and KE Machlup…. Knowledge (equated with information… ) statistics but not overall aggregation…. Porat …. THE information economy as measured by information work and workers Many commentators anchor analysis in Machlup ( ->knowledge economy), but much attention paid to Porat’s graphic “information sector” analysis
  • 27. Information Society Agriculture  Traditional Industry  Traditional Services  New Services (a quaternary, “information sector” - plus some New Industry) But not just sectoral change: growth of information-intensity across all sectors Information workers & knowledge classes expanding and becoming prominent New ways of working – “disintermediation, “end of hierarchy” And …. end of history! Classics: Porat, Alvin Toffler The Third Wave Japan …....….... US …....……. Europe Europessimism
  • 28. The “Information Sector” Quantitative analysis was pioneered by Machlup & colleagues: talked of “knowledge” but tended to develop statistics of information activities and outputs (with little aggregation) Porat had a major impact, despite obscure publication, probably due to striking graphical presentation in terms of a single aggregated category of information workers. This was endlessly recycled.
  • 29. Porat’s Picture 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 4 sector aggregation of US workforce Info Serv Mfg Agr Agricultural  Industrial  Information
  • 30. Porat Information Occupations (adopted by OECD) Information Producers Scientific & Technical Market Search/Coordination Information Gatherers Consultative Services Information producers nec Information Distributors Educators Communication Workers Information Processors Administrative & Managerial Process Control & Supervisory Clerical & Related Information Infrastructure Information Machine Workers Postal & Telecommunications
  • 31. Problems with this “Information Sector” Approach “ Information Occupations” are not the only Information-Processors. They are specialised and visible ... but are they more significant, more sophisticated? Would new IT be used to replace human effort especially here? Problems of Classification : (a) Boundary Cases (b) Heterogeneity Periodisation issues – in what way is “information society” (in this view) now a new stage rather than a step in a trend?
  • 32. A Sociotechnical Approach Sociotechnical approach – technological proponents, plus innovation studies analysis: view of new IT underpinning a new technological revolution Industrial excitement about new technological capabilities (80s “explosion”). Ferment of discussion around ideas of “long waves”, periods/stages of capitalist development, sociotechnical regimes… .. and advances in innovation analysis (classes of innovation)
  • 33.  Information Society All sectors process information New Information and Communication Technologies, new forms of traded information, new communications services, provide potential for change in role and style of information processing Opportunities for transformation of all sectors, activities, many products Information Societies are ones where these transformations are widely underway or effected. (how to assess this…?)
  • 34.  Knowledge Economy Less of a technological focus…. Less specifically information technology… Greater reliance on innovation and thus on innovation-facilitating knowledge in industry – increasing R&D, dependence on hi-tech products and processes (Other types of knowledge important too – for innovation and coordination – thus greater share of knowledge workers and use of KIBS) Increased investment in knowledge production (=R&D), distribution (=education), management (knowledge management), etc.
  • 35. So what does this mean? What do the claims about KE and IS mean – if they are accurate – for: Business? Education? Policy?
  • 36. Additional Powerpoints If there’s time, we’ll discuss the content of these slides today … we will take up the discussion further in future seminars Check out course guide, Website for background readings for next week, on IT and IS statistics.
  • 37. End of Presentation (if there is not time for the remaining slides!)
  • 38. Derivation of “Information” Latin: forma – shape, character of something Informare – to give something shape (also informatio - a concept) Inform – early English – give form, imbue something. Informing - shaping someone’s mind, teaching, training. Information - 14 th century meaning – the act of informing someone. 15 th century – the knowledge communicated Content of a message; patterning of data
  • 39. Origins of term “IS” Some credit Umesao Tadao (Faculty of Science, Kyoto University) as applying the term "Information Society" (Johoka Shakai) as early as 1960; others date this to1963. Between 1964 and 1966 Hoso Asahi (Rising Sun Broadcasting) was running a series on “Sociology in Information Societies”. There was apparently also discussion of "informatization" (Johoka) in Japan even earlier. Term taken up in US in ’70s and took off in ’80s. See Duff’s introduction in Information Society Studies ; and try your own web searching!
  • 40. Sophisticated “Information” Approaches Further development of Knowledge economy analyses (informed by Machlup, but drawing heavily on innovation theory and other approaches). Measuring Flows for macroanalysis and mangement (Information/ Communications Audits… and other approaches) Mapping different types of information activity - consideration of different functions and economic positions. From the Harvard map to the Houghton model…
  • 41. Information Maps (Harvard, Houghton) Comm Info services services Info and comm Info equipment products SERVICES (Immaterial Products) PRODUCTS (Material Goods) FORM / CONDUIT SUBSTANCE/ CONTENT
  • 42. Houghton Information Map Post, courier Legal, accounting Paper, filing cabinets Business forms Magazines, books BASIC TELEPHONY CALL TELEPHONY SERVICES BCS & TRANSMISSION LEASED LINE & PSDN SERVICES LINE. TRANSMISSION & BROADCASTING EQUIPMENT SWITCH, LAN, WAN, DATA EQUIPMENT TERMINAL & PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT COMPUTER EQUIPMENT SYSTEMS SOFTWARE NETWORK SOFTWARE NETWORKED CONTENT PACKAGED SOFTWARE NETWORKS & SERVICES HIGHER LEVEL NETWORK SERVICES PROFESSIONAL SERVICES COMPUTER, COMMS & SOFTWARE SERVICES SERVICES (Immaterial Products) PRODUCTS (Material Goods) FORM / CONDUIT SUBSTANCE/ CONTENT
  • 43. Sociotechnical Approach to the IT revolution New knowledge of effecting useful transformations  new practices a new heartland technology – when this new knowledge produces major improvement in capacity to effect pervasive transformations This promotes dramatic change in availability of a core element of production Meaning the use of new production equipment Organised in new production processes changed logic of production And probably generating new products for industrial and consumer use (and military!) Technological revolutions:
  • 44. Opportunities are grasped… Innovation in and around new IT New processes of production, new products Labour, Capital, Knowledge inputs Changed use of factors of production Changes in organisational structure Changed linkages between organisations Changed consumption … leading to widespread change Not IMPACTS – strategies, counterstrategies, partial knowledge and visions