Korea day2 tutorial 20161014 v6

Editor's Notes

• #2: For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Cognition as a Service: An Industry Perspective URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6 11:30-01:00 Yassi Moghaddam, ISSIP Thriving your business through Smart service ecosystems, 01:00-02:00 Lunch 02:00-03:20 KangYoon Lee, HanSung Univ AI Strategy for New Industrial Growth - 4th Industrial revolution and Digital Marketing - AI Technology and References - AI Platform Business and Ecosystem model- AI Business Insights 03:40-05:30 Il-Yeol Song, Drexel Univ Data Science for Artificial Intelligence (tentative) Second Talk in Korea Am I only needed on Friday Oct 14th from ? 09:30-11:10 Jim Spohrer, IBM Cognition as a Service : Industry Perspective (like a Tutorial Session, 100 Minutes) Cognition as a Service: An Industry Perspective This talk will provide an introduction to the cognitive era of computing, in which cognitive capabilities from natural language and video understanding, machine learning, and decision support with explanations and levels of confidence become broadly available as part of cognitive solutions in the cloud and on personal devices such as smartphones. This tutorial will cover what everyone needs to know about building, understanding, and working with cognitive systems in personal and professional lives - including the progression of cognitive systems from tools to assistants to collaborators to coaches to mediators, trusted to perform some interactions on behalf of the user. IBM transformation to a cognitive solutions and cloud platform company will also be discussed, including IBM Watson on Bluemix, as well as other industry trends. Some of the materials are posted here: http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer - but other materials will not be available until the presentation. My picture and bio are attached and at this URL: http://service-science.info/archives/2233 Bio (150 words):Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer is Director, Understanding Cognitive Systems working in IBM Research’s Chief Science Office Cognitive. He advocates for cognitive mediators for all people –especially professionals who are future-ready adaptive innovators, with T-shaped skillsets and mindsets. Previously, he lead IBM Global University Programs and IBM’s Cognitive Systems Institute.   Jim co-founded IBM’s first Service Research group, ISSIP Service Science community, and was founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations Group in Silicon Valley. He was awarded Apple Computers’Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technology title for his work on next generation learning platforms. Jim has a Yale PhD in Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence and MIT BS in Physics. His research priorities include service science, cognitive science, and wise service systems. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he is also a PICMET Fellow and a winner of the Evert Gummesson Service Research award as well as the S-D Logic award.
• #3: Read the article in Ai Magazine if you can…
• #4: Join the weekly calls if you can.
• #9: There are three doors to get started. If you are faculty or student – enter through the university door at onthehub.com/ibm - HICSS.org is a good conference If you are developer interested in being part of the Watson Developer Cloud community – World of Watson is a good conference If you are a general developer, with broad interests go to Bluemix – IBM INTERACT is a good conference Eventually all roads lead to Bluemix – but depending on where you are, you can learn more by starting at different places. Each starting point has additional resources – when you become a pro you access nearly all of them via Bluemix
• #16: Recognizes three types of things in this image – car, face, words
• #17: Pretty good on some celebrity faces
• #18: Watson still has things to learn – it missed the foot
• #23: 4th is a cyber-physcial systems.
• #28: We are talking about the Frontiers of Service here – and Roland has long predicted information and service converge in some hard to imagine way…
• #29: The 50% of taxi cab drivers that are scared of driverless cars can only think about skillset. The 50% of tax cab drivers that are not scared of driveless cars are all over mindset…
• #35: The key is to think of everything in term of the data/information associated with it across it complete life-cycle form cradle-to-cradle, and redo the business model to benefit provider-customer-and-other stakeholders Changing the Dominant Logic: http://blog.egonl.com/?m=200902 Rolls Royce: http://www.economist.com/node/18073351
• #37: The Circular Economy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRKvDyyHmI
• #39: By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
• #40: Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
• #41: In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
• #47: The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
• #48: If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
• #49: Modha’s Brain - Goal 1KW and 2 Litres…. Dharmendra Modha and his design for a brain chip playing pong: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQ3HEVelBFY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqeINGOzIZo https://twitter.com/dharmendramodha/status/545693986149511168
• #53: Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy). More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant. Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic! Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
• #54: Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation
• #55: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence
• #56: Artificial Intelligence is intelligence in machines. Intelligence Augment is people with smart machines.
• #60: How Does Siri work – local and Cloud http://www.zdnet.com/article/how-apples-siri-really-works/
• #63: Types co-created with the help of Don Norman and Paul Maglio
• #68: Where is the variety? Hardware and even software standardizing into modules and algorithms…. Data will standardize next into categories and types…. Experience is where the uniqueness is, and variety and variability, and identity.
• #73: Images Sources: http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/
• #74: O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
• #78: Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:     (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy;         - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")         - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly         - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY         - more about the ambitions at  http://cognitive-science.info     (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system         - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions     (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions     (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000         - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power)     (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves          - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.     (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them"         - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....     http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to  us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness -  and note especially the wellness suit at the end:     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
• #82: Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world – across many scales. Picture of star formation https://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php
• #83: Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world. Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines – or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 L’s, they also have a 4th L – limbs – those cognitive assistants are robots. Picture of physics and the brain... http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
• #85: However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds… The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology. The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science. Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in. Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385
• #86: Come visit IBM Research – Almaden, in San Jose, CA USA – monthly university day! For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Cognition as a Service: An Industry Perspective URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/korea-day2-tutorial-20161014-v6 11:30-01:00 Yassi Moghaddam, ISSIP Thriving your business through Smart service ecosystems, 01:00-02:00 Lunch 02:00-03:20 KangYoon Lee, HanSung Univ AI Strategy for New Industrial Growth - 4th Industrial revolution and Digital Marketing - AI Technology and References - AI Platform Business and Ecosystem model- AI Business Insights 03:40-05:30 Il-Yeol Song, Drexel Univ Data Science for Artificial Intelligence (tentative) Second Talk in Korea Am I only needed on Friday Oct 14th from ? 09:30-11:10 Jim Spohrer, IBM Cognition as a Service : Industry Perspective (like a Tutorial Session, 100 Minutes) Cognition as a Service: An Industry Perspective This talk will provide an introduction to the cognitive era of computing, in which cognitive capabilities from natural language and video understanding, machine learning, and decision support with explanations and levels of confidence become broadly available as part of cognitive solutions in the cloud and on personal devices such as smartphones. This tutorial will cover what everyone needs to know about building, understanding, and working with cognitive systems in personal and professional lives - including the progression of cognitive systems from tools to assistants to collaborators to coaches to mediators, trusted to perform some interactions on behalf of the user. IBM transformation to a cognitive solutions and cloud platform company will also be discussed, including IBM Watson on Bluemix, as well as other industry trends. Some of the materials are posted here: http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer - but other materials will not be available until the presentation. My picture and bio are attached and at this URL: http://service-science.info/archives/2233 Bio (150 words):Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer is Director, Understanding Cognitive Systems working in IBM Research’s Chief Science Office Cognitive. He advocates for cognitive mediators for all people –especially professionals who are future-ready adaptive innovators, with T-shaped skillsets and mindsets. Previously, he lead IBM Global University Programs and IBM’s Cognitive Systems Institute.   Jim co-founded IBM’s first Service Research group, ISSIP Service Science community, and was founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations Group in Silicon Valley. He was awarded Apple Computers’Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technology title for his work on next generation learning platforms. Jim has a Yale PhD in Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence and MIT BS in Physics. His research priorities include service science, cognitive science, and wise service systems. With over ninety publications and nine patents, he is also a PICMET Fellow and a winner of the Evert Gummesson Service Research award as well as the S-D Logic award.
• #88: Dedication to Douglas C. Engelbart Father of the Mouse Top Left: Doug (1925—2013) holding first computer mouse made of wood Top Right: Doug (1968) doing the mother of all demos Bottom Right: Doug (1970’s doing research at SRI on Augmented Intelligence –HCI + CSCW + Augmentation Theory) Bottom Left: Laughing with his wife as a young man in Oregon, at his family farm