SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Evolution of Technology

                          "The way to build a complex system that
                         works is to build it from very simple systems
                                                            that work.”
                                                           - Kevin Kelly



Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Innovation




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Ideas build upon Ideas
               Every generation of technology
               becomes a source for new
               innovations




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Adjacent Possible
                         The untapped potential
                         of what could be...




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The 10/10 Rule
                         10 years to build a new
                         platform, 10 years for it
                         to be adopted



                                            Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The Liquid network
                         A good idea is a network.
                         Innovations happens with
                         collaboration



                                            Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The Slow Hunch
                         A lot of ideas linger on,
                         sometimes for decades,
                         in the back of people’s
                         minds


                                            Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Serendipity
                         The accident of finding
                         something useful or good
                         without looking for it



                                            Steven Johnson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Evolution
                         How does technology
                         evolve over time?




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
                                            Cycles
Theories of Innovation
                The study of innovation
                can be applied on
                different things:


   Industries                      Paradigms   Technology   Products




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Nikolai Kondratiev




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Kontrativ Wave
                Technology innovations are in long
                cycles, 40-60 years, each
                representing the application of new
                group of technologies, which
                eventually will lead to another wave



Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Kontrativ Wave




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
Kontrativ Wave
                     Wave                                               Years
         1           First Industrial Revolution                        1787–1842
         2           Railroad and Steam Engine Era                      1842–1897
         3           Age of steel, electricity and internal             1897–1939
                     combustion
         4           War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia                    1939–1982
         5           Post Industrial Era: Information Technology 1982? – ??




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson      Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
Diffusion of Innovation
Innovation grows in three stages

      1. Slow growth – The early phase of
         exponential growth
      2. Rapid growth – The late explosive phase of
         exponential growth
      3. A leveling off as the
         particular paradigm matures



Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology S-Curve
     Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle
      – Improvements in performance varies throughout the
        life of the technology




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Timeline
                Each wave creates number of
                new inventions




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The Digital Revolution
                First computers were built using
                vacuum tubes

                Today our cell phone is a
                powerful computer



Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson   Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
The Digital Revolution

Transistor, 1947                             Intel 4004, 1971




                           Integrated circuit, 1959

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Computers in 1964
                                            IBM System/360




   360/20 with 24K of memory

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Moore’s Law
                    Number of transistors on
                    an integrated circuit will double
                    in about 18-24 months.




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Moore’s Law
                    Number of transistors on
                    an integrated circuit will double
                    in about 18-24 months.




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technological growth
           accelerates


Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The Fifth Paradigm




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
30 Years of Product Performance




1977                                        2007
Apple II $1,298                             iMac 17-inch $1,199
4000 bytes memory                           1GB memory
Motorola 6502 1MHz                          Intel 2.0GHz
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2
  supercomputer, fraction of the size


             Cray 2 1985                                                 Apple iPad 2 2011




                Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Exponential
     Growth
            Slow growth in the beginning
            than accelerates




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Second half of the Chess board




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
                                            Flickr picture by spwelton
The Legend of the
   Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Moore’s Law
                    Number of transistors on
                    an integrated circuit will double
                    in about 18-24 months.




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Explonential growth




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Computers will be faster




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Computers will be smaller




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Computers will be cheaper




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Computers will be everywhere




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Things that once were impossible become
                  possible




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
63 years later




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The Long Nose of Innovation


     Bill Buxton’s
     Long nose of
     Innovation




                  Source:
                  http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.ht
Copyright © 2012, m
                  Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Growth of
     Technology
      Evolutionary processes – both
      biology and technology, tend to
      accelerate



Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Ray Kurzweil on how technology will
              transform us (from TED.com)




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
The Law of
  Accelerating Returns
    Evolution applies positive feedback in
    that the more capable methods resulting
    from one stage of evolutionary progress
    are used to create the next stage.

    As a result, the rate of progress of an
    evolutionary process increases
    exponentially over time.
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
“An analysis of the history of
                  technology shows that technological
                 change is exponential, contrary to the
                  common-sense „intuitive linear‟ view.
                   So we won't experience 100 years of
                  progress in the 21st century -- it will be
                      more like 20,000 years of progress
                                       (at today's rate).”
                                            - Ray Kurzweil



Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology S-Curve
     Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle
      – Improvements in performance varies throughout the
        life of the technology




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology S-Curve
     Exponential trends can be composed of a
     sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology S-Curve




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology S-Curve




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology S-Curve




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology S-Curve




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology Life Cycle




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology Life Cycle

  In the early days                         In the later days
  The innovators and technology             The pragmatists and conservatives
  enthusiasts drive the market              dominate; they want solutions and
  They demand technology                    convenience
  Small percentage of the market            The big market




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology Adoption Life Cycle




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Is this evolution of technology good?




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Kranzberg’s
     laws of
     technology


Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
1. Technology is neither good nor
              bad; nor is it neutral
           2. Invention is the mother of necessity
           3. Technology comes in
              packages, big and small




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
4. Although technology might be a prime
   element in many public
   issues, nontechnical factors take
   precedence in technology-policy
   decisions
5. All history is relevant, but the history of
   technology is the most relevant
6. Technology is a very human activity -
   and so is the history of technology.

Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
What is the impact of technological
                        change?




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Technology is one of
                           the major factors in
                                change




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Opportunity                             Threat




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Example: Digital Photography




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Economist article: The last Kodak moment?
         Kodak is at death’s door; Fujifilm, its old rival, is thriving. Why?




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Think about this
                    Think of a technology that
                    has changed your life




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Why did Western Union turn
 down the telephone?




Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

More Related Content

PPTX
Technology and its impact on Society
PPT
History and impact of technology.ppt
PPTX
Modern technology
PPTX
The evolution of the technology
PPTX
Invention vs Innovation
PPTX
Evolution of technology presentation ppt
PPTX
The Concept of Innovation and Innovation Management
PPTX
Technology evolution
Technology and its impact on Society
History and impact of technology.ppt
Modern technology
The evolution of the technology
Invention vs Innovation
Evolution of technology presentation ppt
The Concept of Innovation and Innovation Management
Technology evolution

What's hot (20)

PPTX
Innovation - Types and Phases
PDF
NESTA - Science in Society
PPTX
Science and technology in society
PPT
Rural Urban Migration
PPT
Environmental Management
PPTX
Modern science
PPT
Development theories
PDF
Introduction to sustainability
PPTX
Cultural environment
PPT
Invention & Innovation (Introduction)
PPTX
Innovation
PPTX
Impact Of Technology In Our Culture
PPTX
The effects of globalization
PPTX
Economic Globalization
PPTX
Entrepreneurial Venture and Its Components
PPTX
Features of Globalization
PPTX
Green politics
PDF
Clusters 'what and why'
PPTX
Technological changes in society
PPT
The role of science and technology in development
Innovation - Types and Phases
NESTA - Science in Society
Science and technology in society
Rural Urban Migration
Environmental Management
Modern science
Development theories
Introduction to sustainability
Cultural environment
Invention & Innovation (Introduction)
Innovation
Impact Of Technology In Our Culture
The effects of globalization
Economic Globalization
Entrepreneurial Venture and Its Components
Features of Globalization
Green politics
Clusters 'what and why'
Technological changes in society
The role of science and technology in development
Ad

Viewers also liked (20)

PPTX
The Evolution of Information Technology
PDF
The Evolution of Technology and Family History
PPT
History of educational technology ppt
PDF
Le Digital et la Banque
PPTX
Technology slideshow
PDF
La banque de demain, quelle vision en matière de banque de détail ? - 13.06.16
PDF
Banques et Digital : la nouvelle relation
PDF
Banque de demain chapitre 2 : transformer le modèle bancaire pour innover
PDF
E-banking - L'E-transformation de la Banque
ODP
termómetro digital
PPT
Factors affecting growth and development
PPTX
Evolution Of Information Technology
PDF
History of-educational-technology-timeline
PPTX
Brief history of social media
PPT
Board displays evaluation form (1)
PPT
Complete Update of All Exponential Technologies & Singularity cases and its I...
PPTX
Information technology evolution
DOCX
Bulletin Board Display New
PPTX
Technological advancements in india
PPT
A Revolução Científica
The Evolution of Information Technology
The Evolution of Technology and Family History
History of educational technology ppt
Le Digital et la Banque
Technology slideshow
La banque de demain, quelle vision en matière de banque de détail ? - 13.06.16
Banques et Digital : la nouvelle relation
Banque de demain chapitre 2 : transformer le modèle bancaire pour innover
E-banking - L'E-transformation de la Banque
termómetro digital
Factors affecting growth and development
Evolution Of Information Technology
History of-educational-technology-timeline
Brief history of social media
Board displays evaluation form (1)
Complete Update of All Exponential Technologies & Singularity cases and its I...
Information technology evolution
Bulletin Board Display New
Technological advancements in india
A Revolução Científica
Ad

Similar to L04 Evolution of Technology (20)

PPTX
New Technology 2012 Lecture 03 - Technology Innovation
PPTX
New Technology Lecture 02 Study of Technology
PPTX
L01 new technology course description
PPTX
Technology And Products
PPTX
New Technology 2012 Lecture 01 - introduction
PDF
New Technology Lecture L04 Adjacent Possible
PDF
L04 Adjacent Possible
PDF
L04 Adjacent Possible
PDF
L04 Adjacent Possible
PDF
L04 Adjacent Possible
PDF
New Technology 2017 L04 Exponential World
PDF
L03 Exponential World
PDF
L03 Exponential World
PDF
UoLiverpool: Letting Our Achievement Speak (7mar13)
PPT
GU STIA305 06
PDF
L03 Exponential World
PDF
L04 Adjacent Possible
PDF
Technology change & the rise of new industries
PDF
Engineering Your Future
PPT
Innovative Connections.2009
New Technology 2012 Lecture 03 - Technology Innovation
New Technology Lecture 02 Study of Technology
L01 new technology course description
Technology And Products
New Technology 2012 Lecture 01 - introduction
New Technology Lecture L04 Adjacent Possible
L04 Adjacent Possible
L04 Adjacent Possible
L04 Adjacent Possible
L04 Adjacent Possible
New Technology 2017 L04 Exponential World
L03 Exponential World
L03 Exponential World
UoLiverpool: Letting Our Achievement Speak (7mar13)
GU STIA305 06
L03 Exponential World
L04 Adjacent Possible
Technology change & the rise of new industries
Engineering Your Future
Innovative Connections.2009

More from Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson (20)

PDF
Nýsköpun - Leiðin til framfara
PDF
Nýjast tækni og framtíðin
PDF
New Technology Summer 2020 Course Introduction
PDF
L01 Introduction
PDF
L23 Robotics and Drones
PDF
L22 Augmented and Virtual Reality
PDF
L20 Personalised World
PDF
L19 Network Platforms
PDF
L18 Big Data and Analytics
PDF
L17 Algorithms and AI
PDF
L16 Internet of Things
PDF
L14 From the Internet to Blockchain
PDF
L14 The Mobile Revolution
PDF
New Technology 2019 L13 Rise of the Machine
PDF
L12 digital transformation
PDF
L10 The Innovator's Dilemma
PDF
L09 Disruptive Technology
PDF
L09 Technological Revolutions
PDF
L07 Becoming Invisible
PDF
L06 Diffusion of Innovation
Nýsköpun - Leiðin til framfara
Nýjast tækni og framtíðin
New Technology Summer 2020 Course Introduction
L01 Introduction
L23 Robotics and Drones
L22 Augmented and Virtual Reality
L20 Personalised World
L19 Network Platforms
L18 Big Data and Analytics
L17 Algorithms and AI
L16 Internet of Things
L14 From the Internet to Blockchain
L14 The Mobile Revolution
New Technology 2019 L13 Rise of the Machine
L12 digital transformation
L10 The Innovator's Dilemma
L09 Disruptive Technology
L09 Technological Revolutions
L07 Becoming Invisible
L06 Diffusion of Innovation

Recently uploaded (20)

PPTX
20250228 LYD VKU AI Blended-Learning.pptx
PDF
Encapsulation theory and applications.pdf
PPT
“AI and Expert System Decision Support & Business Intelligence Systems”
PPTX
Detection-First SIEM: Rule Types, Dashboards, and Threat-Informed Strategy
PDF
Spectral efficient network and resource selection model in 5G networks
PDF
Machine learning based COVID-19 study performance prediction
PDF
Reach Out and Touch Someone: Haptics and Empathic Computing
PDF
Advanced methodologies resolving dimensionality complications for autism neur...
PPTX
KOM of Painting work and Equipment Insulation REV00 update 25-dec.pptx
PPTX
Understanding_Digital_Forensics_Presentation.pptx
PDF
Modernizing your data center with Dell and AMD
PDF
cuic standard and advanced reporting.pdf
PDF
Per capita expenditure prediction using model stacking based on satellite ima...
PDF
NewMind AI Weekly Chronicles - August'25 Week I
PDF
Network Security Unit 5.pdf for BCA BBA.
DOCX
The AUB Centre for AI in Media Proposal.docx
PDF
Approach and Philosophy of On baking technology
PDF
TokAI - TikTok AI Agent : The First AI Application That Analyzes 10,000+ Vira...
PDF
Peak of Data & AI Encore- AI for Metadata and Smarter Workflows
PPTX
PA Analog/Digital System: The Backbone of Modern Surveillance and Communication
20250228 LYD VKU AI Blended-Learning.pptx
Encapsulation theory and applications.pdf
“AI and Expert System Decision Support & Business Intelligence Systems”
Detection-First SIEM: Rule Types, Dashboards, and Threat-Informed Strategy
Spectral efficient network and resource selection model in 5G networks
Machine learning based COVID-19 study performance prediction
Reach Out and Touch Someone: Haptics and Empathic Computing
Advanced methodologies resolving dimensionality complications for autism neur...
KOM of Painting work and Equipment Insulation REV00 update 25-dec.pptx
Understanding_Digital_Forensics_Presentation.pptx
Modernizing your data center with Dell and AMD
cuic standard and advanced reporting.pdf
Per capita expenditure prediction using model stacking based on satellite ima...
NewMind AI Weekly Chronicles - August'25 Week I
Network Security Unit 5.pdf for BCA BBA.
The AUB Centre for AI in Media Proposal.docx
Approach and Philosophy of On baking technology
TokAI - TikTok AI Agent : The First AI Application That Analyzes 10,000+ Vira...
Peak of Data & AI Encore- AI for Metadata and Smarter Workflows
PA Analog/Digital System: The Backbone of Modern Surveillance and Communication

L04 Evolution of Technology

  • 1. Evolution of Technology "The way to build a complex system that works is to build it from very simple systems that work.” - Kevin Kelly Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 2. Innovation Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 3. Ideas build upon Ideas Every generation of technology becomes a source for new innovations Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 4. Adjacent Possible The untapped potential of what could be... Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 5. The 10/10 Rule 10 years to build a new platform, 10 years for it to be adopted Steven Johnson Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 6. The Liquid network A good idea is a network. Innovations happens with collaboration Steven Johnson Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 7. The Slow Hunch A lot of ideas linger on, sometimes for decades, in the back of people’s minds Steven Johnson Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 8. Serendipity The accident of finding something useful or good without looking for it Steven Johnson Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 9. Evolution How does technology evolve over time? Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 10. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Cycles
  • 11. Theories of Innovation The study of innovation can be applied on different things: Industries Paradigms Technology Products Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 12. Nikolai Kondratiev Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 13. Kontrativ Wave Technology innovations are in long cycles, 40-60 years, each representing the application of new group of technologies, which eventually will lead to another wave Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 14. Kontrativ Wave Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
  • 15. Kontrativ Wave Wave Years 1 First Industrial Revolution 1787–1842 2 Railroad and Steam Engine Era 1842–1897 3 Age of steel, electricity and internal 1897–1939 combustion 4 War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia 1939–1982 5 Post Industrial Era: Information Technology 1982? – ?? Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
  • 16. Diffusion of Innovation Innovation grows in three stages 1. Slow growth – The early phase of exponential growth 2. Rapid growth – The late explosive phase of exponential growth 3. A leveling off as the particular paradigm matures Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 17. Technology S-Curve Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle – Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 18. Timeline Each wave creates number of new inventions Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 19. The Digital Revolution First computers were built using vacuum tubes Today our cell phone is a powerful computer Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
  • 20. The Digital Revolution Transistor, 1947 Intel 4004, 1971 Integrated circuit, 1959 Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 21. Computers in 1964 IBM System/360 360/20 with 24K of memory Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 22. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 23. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 24. Technological growth accelerates Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 25. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 26. The Fifth Paradigm Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 27. 30 Years of Product Performance 1977 2007 Apple II $1,298 iMac 17-inch $1,199 4000 bytes memory 1GB memory Motorola 6502 1MHz Intel 2.0GHz Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 28. iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4 Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 29. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 30. Exponential Growth Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 31. Second half of the Chess board Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Flickr picture by spwelton
  • 32. The Legend of the Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 33. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 34. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 35. Explonential growth Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 36. Computers will be faster Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 37. Computers will be smaller Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 38. Computers will be cheaper Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 39. Computers will be everywhere Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 40. Things that once were impossible become possible Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 41. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 42. From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009 Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 43. 63 years later Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 44. The Long Nose of Innovation Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.ht Copyright © 2012, m Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 45. Growth of Technology Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to accelerate Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 46. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com) Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 47. The Law of Accelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 48. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense „intuitive linear‟ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 49. Technology S-Curve Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle – Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 50. Technology S-Curve Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 51. Technology S-Curve Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 52. Technology S-Curve Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 53. Technology S-Curve Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 54. Technology S-Curve Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 55. Technology Life Cycle Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 56. Technology Life Cycle In the early days In the later days The innovators and technology The pragmatists and conservatives enthusiasts drive the market dominate; they want solutions and They demand technology convenience Small percentage of the market The big market Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 57. Technology Adoption Life Cycle Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 58. Is this evolution of technology good? Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 59. Kranzberg’s laws of technology Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 60. 1. Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral 2. Invention is the mother of necessity 3. Technology comes in packages, big and small Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 61. 4. Although technology might be a prime element in many public issues, nontechnical factors take precedence in technology-policy decisions 5. All history is relevant, but the history of technology is the most relevant 6. Technology is a very human activity - and so is the history of technology. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 62. What is the impact of technological change? Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 63. Technology is one of the major factors in change Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 64. Opportunity Threat Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 65. Example: Digital Photography Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 66. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 67. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 68. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 69. Economist article: The last Kodak moment? Kodak is at death’s door; Fujifilm, its old rival, is thriving. Why? Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 70. Think about this Think of a technology that has changed your life Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  • 71. Why did Western Union turn down the telephone? Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

Editor's Notes

  • #5: BeforeElectricity it was difficult to build computersVacuum tubes were only possible after electricity
  • #13: Russian: 1892-1938, economist,Proponent of the New Economic Policy (NEP) in the Soviet Union.Lenin called in State Capitalism
  • #25: The rate of improvements accelerate over time
  • #28: Erfitt að sjá fyrir en samt eru ákveðnir hlutir mjög fyrirsjánlegir.Lögmál Moore: tvöföldun á 18 mánaða frestiTæki verða minni, öflugri Er að koma að takmörkunum – einangrun er orðinn atom á þykktLögmál Moore mun halda áfram næstu 15 til 20 ár16.000 GHz árið 2027, 8000 GB = 8 TB Paradigm shift2045 singularityTónlist-Uppáhaldslög-Öll lög-Öll lög af ákveðinni tegund-Öll lög sem tekin hafa verið upp!
  • #31: First iterations don’t add much but when you go over 30 something happens
  • #33: Legend of the AmbalappuzhaPaalPayasamAccording to the legend, Lord Krishna once appeared in the form of a sage in the court of the king who ruled the region and challenged him for a game of chess (or chaturanga). The king being a chess enthusiast himself gladly accepted the invitation. The prize had to be decided before the game and the king asked the sage to choose his prize in case he wins. The sage told the king that he had a very modest claim and being a man of few material needs, all he wished was a few grains of rice. The amount of rice itself shall be determined using the chess-board in the following manner. One grain of rice shall be placed in the first square, two grains in the second square, four in the third square, eight in the fourth square and so on. Every square will have double the number of grains of its predecessor.Upon hearing the demand, the king was unhappy since the sage requested only a few grains of rice instead of other riches from the kingdom which the king would've been happy to donate. He requested the sage to add other items to his prize but the sage declined.So the game of chess started and needless to say the king lost the game. It was time to pay the sage his agreed-upon prize. As he started adding grains of rice to the chess board, the king soon realised the true nature of the sage's demands. By the 20th square, the number had reached one-million grains of rice and by the 40th square, it became one-trillion. The royal granary soon ran out of grains of rice. The king realised that even if he provides all the rice in his kingdom and his adjacent kingdoms, he will never be able to fulfill the promised reward. The number of grains was increasing as a geometric progression and the total amount of rice required to fill a 64-squared chess board is (2^ (64) - 1 ), which is equal to 18446744073709551615 grains (about 18*10^18, or 18 billion billion grains). This amount of rice would weigh about 460*10^12 kg, 4.6*10^2 Pg (Peta grams), or 460 billion tonnes (1,000 grains of rice weigh about 25g). This amount of rice would also cover the surface of India two meters deep!Upon seeing the dilemma, the sage appeared to the king in his true-form, that of lord Krishna. He told the king that he doesn't have to pay the debt immediately but can pay him over time. The king shall serve paal-payasam (made of rice) in the temple freely to the pilgrims every day until the debt is paid off.
  • #34: Legend of the AmbalappuzhaPaalPayasamAccording to the legend, Lord Krishna once appeared in the form of a sage in the court of the king who ruled the region and challenged him for a game of chess (or chaturanga). The king being a chess enthusiast himself gladly accepted the invitation. The prize had to be decided before the game and the king asked the sage to choose his prize in case he wins. The sage told the king that he had a very modest claim and being a man of few material needs, all he wished was a few grains of rice. The amount of rice itself shall be determined using the chess-board in the following manner. One grain of rice shall be placed in the first square, two grains in the second square, four in the third square, eight in the fourth square and so on. Every square will have double the number of grains of its predecessor.Upon hearing the demand, the king was unhappy since the sage requested only a few grains of rice instead of other riches from the kingdom which the king would've been happy to donate. He requested the sage to add other items too to his prize but the sage declined.So the game of chess started and needless to say the king lost the game. It was time to pay the sage his agreed-upon prize. As he started adding grains of rice to the chess board, the king soon realised the true nature of the sage's demands. By the 20th square, the number had reached one-million grains of rice and by the 40th square, it became one-trillion. The royal grainery soon ran out of grains of rice. The king realised that even if he provides all the rice in his kingdom and his adjacent kingdoms, he will never be able to fulfill the promised reward. The number of grains was increasing as a geometric progression and the total amount of rice required to fill a 64-squared chess board is (2^63) which is equal to the number 9223372036854775808 [1] translating to half a trillion tonnes of rice (1,000 grains of rice weigh about 25g [2]).Upon seeing the dilemma, the sage appeared to the king in his true-form, that of lord Krishna. He told the King that he doesn't have to pay the debt immediately but can pay him over time. The king shall serve paal-payasam (made of rice) in the temple freely to the pilgrims every day until the debt is paid off.
  • #40: PILLS
  • #41: Ideas not possible but only after long timeMobile phones were conceived in the 40 but only realized in the 80
  • #42: Comic strip featuring Dick Tracy, a hard-hitting, fast-shooting and intelligent police detective. Created by Chester Gould, the strip made its debut on October 4, 1931, in the Detroit Mirror.It was Gould wrote and drew the strip until 1977On January 13, 1946 2-Way Wrist Radio, having drawn inspiration from a visit to inventor Al Gross. This seminal communications device, worn as a wristwatch by Tracy and members of the police force,
  • #60: Melvin Kranzberg 1917 –1995 was a professor of history at Case Western Reserve University from 1952 until 1971. He was a Callaway professor of the history of technology at Georgia Tech from 1972 to 1988.