L04 Adjacent Possible
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The document discusses the concept of the 'adjacent possible,' which refers to the environmental conditions that allow for certain inventions to emerge at specific times, influenced by the availability of enabling technologies. It highlights historical examples, such as the invention of the telephone, to illustrate how ideas often develop concurrently and build upon existing technologies. Additionally, it addresses the 'prevailing technology trap' and the interplay between current technologies and new innovations, emphasizing that while advancements follow certain patterns, they can also be constrained by the technologies that currently dominate.
L04 Adjacent Possible
- 2. The S-curve Based on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology
- 3. Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 4. The Law of Accelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
- 5. Exponential World Local and linear Global and Exponential
- 7. Alexander G. Bell filed a patent application at the US Patent Office, on the harmonic telegraph, including its use for transmitting vocal sounds
- 8. On the same day another inventor, Elisha Gray, filed a patent caveat for improving the telegraph
- 9. The Bell vs. Gray Controversy
- 10. Ideas usually come at similar time Who invented the telephone?
- 11. When All the Enabling Technologies are Ready Why was the telephone invented in 1876, but not 1826 or 1926? With electricity, wires, batteries and with the workmanship and tools and with the knowledge of these, at the time, it was possible in 1876 to create a working telephone
- 13. Adjacent Possible Inventions have their time in history due to the possibilities of the environment at any given time. Inventions tend to happen within the boundaries of the adjacent possible, or the realm of possibilities available at any given momentSteven Johnson
- 14. Adjacent Possible Inventions tend to happen within the boundaries of the adjacent possible, or the realm of possibilities available at any given moment Steven Johnson
- 15. Adjacent Possible ...a kind of shadow future, hovering on the edges of the present state of things, a map of all the ways in which the present can reinvent itself Steven Johnson
- 17. Ideas usually come at similar time Electricity, wires, telegraph, batteries, …
- 18. Enabling Technology Existing technology that can be used to build new technologies
- 19. Why was the computer invented in the 1940s and not in the 1840s? Think about this!
- 20. Charles Babbage Sometimes called Inventor of the Computer Wanted to remove the inevitable human errors from computing
- 21. Believed that machines could replace laborious and error-prone calculations - “calculate by steam” Charles Babbage
- 23. Machine to compute polynomials Got grants but efforts were slow Lack of workmanship of the time delayed the project Worked stopped 1833 Difference Engine
- 25. Analytical engine Babbage started on a new machine in 1834 Programmable machine – with primitive programming language Input was in punched cards Run by steam
- 26. Augusta Ada Byron Countess of Lovelace Mathematician and scientist Worked with Babbage on his Analytical Engine The first programmer
- 28. Notes by the Translator Ada worte notes on the Analytical machine 1. General purpose machine - mill to calculate, store to keep data, and formulas 2. Machine was not limited to math - could by any symbol - words, logic, music 3. Step by step instructions - programs, subroutines
- 29. Adjacent Possible When all the enabling technologies are ready, new inventions will be emerge
- 30. Adjacent Possible The inventor must use the components that exist in his environment Steven Johnson
- 31. Image source: http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm Vacuum tubes were used to build computers
- 32. Toaster
- 33. Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project
- 34. Source: TED.com
- 35. "Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster. He could just about make a sandwich and that was it." — Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992
- 38. “And that was something that reoccurred throughout the project, was, the smaller the scale you want to work on, the further back in time you have to go” — Thomas Thwaites
- 40. Prevailing Technology The dominant technology at any given time New inventions will improve Source: www.pianoworld.com/gallery/piano_pictures2.htm
- 41. Ideas build upon Ideas Every generation of technology becomes a source for new innovations
- 42. Combinatory Process New technology is created by combining other existing technology in new ways
- 43. Layers of Technology Technologies evolves layer by layer, from simple to complex technologies
- 44. Web of Technology Products are made using different parts using many technologies - confection of ideas
- 45. Gall’s Law All complex systems that work, evolved from simpler system that worked
- 46. “I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read
- 47. The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit. — Milton Friedman
- 49. The Law of Disappearing Technology When some technique is mastered, it will “disappear” as something obvious and trivial, and other more useful things that are built on top of it
- 50. That means when technology disappears it becomes useful The Law of Disappearing Technology
- 51. Electricity The Law of Disappearing Technology
- 52. Internet The Law of Disappearing Technology
- 53. The Resistance Corollary Even outdated things that should “disappear” don’t due to supposed importance
- 54. Phone books Checks Fax machines Keys Plastic cards Landline phones Printed newspapers Lottery terminals
- 55. The Prevailing Technology Trap
- 58. The Prevailing Technology Trap Current and dominant technology will highly influence and restrict new innovations
- 59. Current and dominant technology will highly influence new innovation, and can even restrict them Innovators are so influenced by the current technologies that they will try to work according to them, including their limitations. The Prevailing Technology Trap
- 63. Two Waves of Products Development In the first wave the product is restricted by the prevailing technology, but in the second, there is something new
- 64. Two Waves of Products Development Web 1.0 Web 2.0
- 65. Two Waves of Products Development One2Many Many2Many
- 66. Timeline Each wave creates number of new inventions
- 67. Timeline When the time is right, new ideas will emerge
- 68. Next L05 How Innovation Happens