New Technology 2018 Lecture L01 Introduction
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The document discusses the evolution of technology and its impact on businesses and society, highlighting key shifts such as Nokia's decline due to innovation lapses and the rise of smartphones. It covers major technological revolutions, the transformation of business models from hierarchical structures to networked ecosystems, and the emergence of AI and IoT. The document emphasizes the need to understand technological trends to remain relevant in an ever-changing digital landscape.
New Technology 2018 Lecture L01 Introduction
- 1. NEW TECHNOLOGY 2018 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
- 7. Agenda State of technology — Why it is important to understand technology? Course description
- 8. Reading New Technology Chapter 1 Introduction Course Description
- 9. Stephen Elop, CEO Nokia 2011
- 11. In 2002 Nokia had 35% of the worlds mobile market In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the worlds smartphone market
- 12. Falling from glory Nokia stock price 2007-2011
- 13. 1871: Founded. Spends the next century making tyres, boots and cables. 1987: Launches first phone. The Mobira Cityman weighs almost 1kg. 1992: Sells non-mobile divisions and launches first digital GSM phone, the Nokia 1011. 2000: Stock market value hits 186bn euros. Now worth 11bn euros. 2003: Basic 1100 phone launched. Goes on to sell 250 million units and become the world's most popular consumer electronic device. 2011: Abandons Symbian mobile phone operating software and switches to the Windows platform instead. Source: Reuters/Nokia History of a survivor
- 14. What happened in 2007?
- 15. The iPhone
- 16. Shift in Power Source: Google
- 17. Shift in Power
- 18. Early 2011, Elop said in a memo they were standing on a burning platform
- 19. How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world around us evolved? This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally. Nokia, our platform is burning. Elop’s Memo - excerpts http://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop
- 20. The Mobile Industry before 2007 Hardware Limitations Mobile OS “Mobile” Internet Walled garden Predefined functionality The Mobile Industry after 2007 Software Full functionality Real OS Internet Open App store Shift in Power
- 21. The iPhone Effect
- 22. February 11th 2011, Nokia announced a partnership with Microsoft
- 23. September 3rd 2013, Microsoft bought Nokia’s Devices and service business for $7.2 billion
- 24. Is this new…?
- 25. Western Union 1878 7,500 offices 12.000 employees 200,000 miles of cable
- 27. Alexander G. Bell, 1876
- 28. "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876.
- 29. AT&T became dominant in US communications - split up in 1982
- 30. Actually this is not even rare…
- 31. Britannica 1990 Sales: $650 million
- 33. Taken from Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet
- 34. Printed books, sold in stores Online, access everywhere, updated in real-time, crowdsourced THEN NOW
- 35. And again…
- 36. In January 2010, Blockbuster operated 5,200 stores worldwide
- 37. By September 2010, Blockbuster files for bankruptcy
- 39. TECHNOLOGY IS ONE OF THE MAJOR FACTORS IN CHANGE
- 40. Today 3.8 billion people connect to the Internet and in the next few years 3 billions will connect There are more mobile devices connecting to the Internet than computers Printed newspapers and magazines are going out of business, those who survive will go online Bookstores are closing as sales of books decline CD/DVD sales dropped rapidly as online streaming increases TV stations need to go on the internet or out of business Social networks are shaping our lives in ways we never imagined Amazon sells more digital books than printed books Over 5 billion hours of video are watched each day on YouTube Self-driving cars are taking to the roads People are starting to lose jobs because of robots Every day 1.4 billion people log on to Facebook People are tracking the health and activity with sensors and gathering statistics in the cloud
- 41. UNDERSTANDING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON PEOPLE, BUSINESSES AND SOCIETY
- 42. Living in the future - Identify major trends today and project what that means in the next 3-5 years
- 43. People say we will experience more change due to technology in the next 2-3 decades than we have in 2-300 years
- 44. The Long View Technical Revolutions span generations — 50 to 100 years Source: Carlota Perez 1760 19801780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 Arkwright’s mill in Cromford, 1771 Industrialiation Water dams Steam Manchester- Liverpool Rocket line, 1829 Railways Steam Engine Carnegie Bessemer steel, Pittsburg, 1875 Electricity Steel Ford’s model T, Detroit, 1908 Oil Cars Mass production Motion Pictures Phone Photographs Radio Intel örgjörvinn, Santa Clara, 1971 Computers PC Automation Transform societies
- 45. Industrial Revolutions Water and steam powered factories Second Industrial Revolution Electricity harnessed to power factories, light up houses, home appliances Information Revolution Information technology used to automate processes
- 46. The Fourth Industrial Revolution
- 47. Fjórða iðnbyltingin Artifical Intelligence, AI Robotics Internet of things, IoT Autonomous vehicles Drones, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles 3D printing Nanotechnology Biotechnology Material Science Energy storage Augmented reality Virtual reality Blockchain The Fourth Industrial Revolution
- 48. Fifth Technological Revolution starts Intel 1971 The Technology Trigger 1971
- 49. 1981 Personal Computer allowed small companies and individuals to own and program computers Generative platform Opened up a huge revolution - created a new industry Personal Computers
- 50. 1995 Opened up a new way for people to communicate and exchange data Generative platform, permissionless innovation Created new industries, transformed businesses Internet
- 51. 2007 Smartphone The smartphone revolution takes off with new possibilities Powerful computer in your pocket Access to 4 million apps Constant access to the Internet
- 52. PDP-8 Computer from DEC, March 1965 Cost 18.500 USD Sold 50.000 computers 12 bit architecture 32K memory 0,5 MIPS MIPS: millions instruction per second Smartphone from Apple, September 2015 Cost 649 USD 10 million phones sold in first three days 64 bit architecture 128GB “capacity” 25.000 MIPS iPhone 6
- 53. 50.000 times faster And has camera , sensors, speakers, Wi-Fi, etc…
- 54. The Next Wave will be built previous waves Mainframe 1947 Minicomputer 1965 PC 1981 1995 Internet Smartphone 2007
- 55. The number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits double every 18 to 24 months Moore’s Law
- 56. Gradually, then suddenly Exponential Growth 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, ...
- 57. 30 linear steps Down the street 30 exponential steps 25 x
- 58. iPad 2 has the same power as Cray 2 super computer Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4 Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 Exponential Growth
- 59. WE EMPHASISE TECHNOLOGY BUT IGNORE THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT
- 60. How will technology change people’s behaviour?
- 62. “Software eats the world”
- 65. Businesses are going though Digital Transformation
- 66. THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE 2010 2020 BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 20TH CENTURY BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 21TH CENTURY
- 67. HIERARCHAL NETWORK 20th Century 21th Century
- 68. THE DIGITAL DECADE THE CONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS 1900 2000 From hierarchical structure to networks From broadcasting to streaming - long tail From Read-only culture to read-write culture The Move to Networks THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE BUSINESS MODELS CHANGE SMARTPHONES REAL TIME SOFTWARE CLOUD AND AI 2010
- 69. 2010 2020 Defined Industry Boundaries Single-purpose Products Producers and Consumers Buying Economy Hierarchical Structure Platforms, ecosystems Connected Smart Products User as producer, co-creation Sharing economy Network Structure The Transformation Decade Broadcasting Streaming Gatekeepers Algorithms 2010 2020
- 70. MANY 2 MANY: PEER INTERACTION ESTABLISHED BUSINESS MODELS GET DISRUPTED READ WRITE CULTURE ONE 2 MANY: BROADCASTING BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED READ ONLY CULTURE BEFORE NOW CONTROLLED BY GATEKEEPERS CONTROLLED BY CONSUMERS
- 71. Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable BEFORE NOW THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET
- 72. Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture BEFORE NOW CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE
- 78. END OF CONTROL
- 79. The Smartphone
- 80. 2.3 billion people carry smartphones Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
- 82. People touch their smartphone 2.617 times per day
- 83. If you want to get customers to use software, you cannot ignore mobile Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides The Internet Bubble
- 84. Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks
- 85. The 20th century society structure was hierarchical – government, companies, any form of communication Coordination cost is high
- 86. The 21st century society becomes a network – software connects individuals Coordination cost drops to zero
- 87. Any business that is built around a hierarchy with high coordination cost, will be crushed by a networked software solution with low coordination cost
- 91. O2O - „Online 2 offline“ Digital world connects to the physical world Platforms connect two groups - those offering something and consumers Hosts and guests, drivers and riders, products and consumers…
- 92. The Gig Economy People work for others though platforms — your new boss is software Platform takes care of billing and transactions, ratings and recommendations Uber, Airbnb, Upwork, Taskrabbit, Postmates, Deliveroo…
- 94. Using computers used to be: you sit down and use the computer just as any tool
- 95. Today: The computer tells you what to do In real time
- 96. Today: The computer tells you what to do In real time
- 97. Rise of online ordering and delivery services
- 98. Everybody in a company must use smartphones — it is the new boss BOSS
- 100. Thing Smart thing Processors Sensors Software Connected smart thing Processors Sensors Software Source: HBR Farming system Planters Tillers Tractor Harvesters Ecosystem Internet of Things
- 101. Smart farming
- 102. Delta airline baggage tags have wireless transmitters — automatic baggage system
- 103. Internet of Things where sensors are used to send data to the cloud to analyze information upplýsingar
- 104. Accelerometer Gyroscope Magnetometer Barometer Proximity Light sensor Touch screens GPS WiFi Bluetooth GSM/CDMA Cell NFC - Near Field Camera front Camera back Sensors
- 105. Jawbone UP fitness tracker
- 106. Philips HUE light system
- 107. iGrill thermometer
- 108. Sonos Sound System
- 111. A patient is diagnosed with a rare disease – doctors cannot find the problem Tokyo University Hospital It took an AI system 10 minutes…
- 112. Dr. Watson went to medical school
- 114. Powerful Neural network algorithms Cluster of thousands of fast GPU machines Big data – lots of data
- 115. Naural networks is type of AI where Deep Lerning is used The networks are not programmed —they are trained to learn
- 119. Bots are smart software components Have specific tasks, for example dispatching a driver, notify, process receipts, handle bookkeeping, book flights ….
- 120. Chatbot
- 122. Robotics
- 123. Amazon uses robots to stuff racks – Robot Operators supervise them
- 124. Robotics in the 21st century Robots that see, hear and sense Robots that can communicate Powerful machines with software and internet connectivity
- 125. Amazon Fulfilment Center robots
- 126. Autonomous Cars
- 128. Tesla cars have driven 2 billion km on Autopilot
- 129. Cars will become work or entertainment centers
- 131. Airbus Concept
- 132. What does this mean?
- 133. Finance Health Retail Transportation Education ? Whatever… The World is Chaning
- 134. All jobs will disappear and our existence is meaningless…
- 135. WE MUST UNDERSTAND TECHNOLOGY AND IT’S POTENTIAL TO BE RELEVANT
- 136. NEW TECHNOLOGY 2018