Overview of Cognitive Bias
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The document discusses cognitive bias through a description of an individual named Steve, who is characterized as shy and detail-oriented, prompting a question about whether he is more likely to be a librarian or a farmer. It presents statistical data indicating there are more male farmers than librarians in the U.S. and includes various examples and questions related to probability and thought processes, referencing Daniel Kahneman's work 'Thinking, Fast and Slow'.
Overview of Cognitive Bias
- 1. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting An individual has been described by a neighbor as follows: “Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with very little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.” Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
- 2. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Welcome! Overview of Cognitive Bias Raghavendra (Raghav) Mithare 22-Jul-2020 (Wednesday) / London / UK Value Glide - Associate Knowledge Sharing Session
- 3. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Raghavendra(Raghav)Mithare Law Coaching Engineering BE MTech NLSIU PG IPR ICF (PCC) 225+ SAFe Certification Holders Trained WHAT NEXT? Product
- 4. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting An individual has been described by a neighbor as follows: “Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with very little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.” Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
- 5. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
- 6. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Probability of an event
- 7. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Let’s consider Red marbles 100 Blue marbles 100
- 8. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Let’s consider Red marbles 10 Blue marbles 1000
- 9. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Let’s consider Librarian 10* Farmer 1000* *actual US census data says there are more (male) farmers in the United States than librarians (male)
- 10. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Is Steve more likely to be a farmer
- 11. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Capital of France is _________
- 12. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting 2 + 2 = _________
- 13. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Pride and _________
- 14. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting A bat and ball cost £1.10 The bat costs one pound more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
- 15. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting A bat and ball cost £1.10 The bat costs one pound more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? £1.10 Ball £ 0.05 £1.05+ £1
- 16. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Our brain System 1 System 2 slower, driven by deliberation and logic instantaneous, driven by instinct and prior learning
- 17. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Further reading Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow.
- 18. www.processwhirl.co.uk © ProcessWhirl Management Consulting Thank you!