PLNOG 8: Don Dodge - Platform shift to Mobile
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1) Platform shifts like the transition to mobile happen every 10-15 years and present huge opportunities, though current market leaders are often late to make the shift. 2) Smartphones are now more powerful than laptops were just a few years ago and are growing exponentially in both sales and usage. 3) The mobile platform is still in its early stages, with smartphone adoption still growing rapidly globally and mobile apps becoming a multi-billion dollar industry in their own right.
PLNOG 8: Don Dodge - Platform shift to Mobile
- 1. Platform shift to Mobile Bigger and faster than you think Don Dodge Google
- 2. Platform shifts = huge opportunity Platform shifts happen every 10 – 15 years Market leaders always late to make the shift New companies emerge to lead New platform is always bigger and cheaper
- 3. Platform era leaders Mainframe – 1970s - IBM Mini-Computers – 1980s - DEC PCs – 1990s - Dell, Microsoft Web – 2000s - AOL, Yahoo, Google Phones – 2010s - Apple, Google
- 4. Platform shifts = 10X more devices
- 5. 5 Year Adoption curves – 20X PCs and 3X Web 835
- 6. The Phone is your computer Phone more powerful than laptop 3 years ago Phone is used more than my laptop Future office = flat screen & keyboard You decide which files & apps are local Everything replicated in the cloud
- 7. Smartphone sales now exceed PCs
- 8. Smartphone growth vs PCs
- 9. Move to smartphones still early
- 10. Smart vs Feature phone growth
- 11. Android & iOS
- 12. Ad $$ vs Time Spent
- 13. $20B mobile ad opportunity in USA
- 14. 1.1B global 3G subscribers – Poland
- 15. “Software is eating the world” Marc Andreessen
- 17. Mobile apps $10B, growing 100%
- 18. Mobile app $$ vs Ad $
- 19. $1B mobile app company
- 20. 1 Million users? 9 Years 9 Months 9 Days
- 21. Smartphones close the Digital Divide Digital Divide rich vs poor, affordability of PCs Technical skill to use a PC Home internet connection required $$ Everyone will be able to afford a Smartphone Easy to use Usable outside the home & rural areas
- 22. Smartphones soon cost ZERO $
- 23. Where are the opportunities? Games Games Games Only 5 of top 40 apps are NOT games Messenger, Camera, Translation, Music, Calendar Enterprise apps will move to mobile $$$$ B2C apps free, but generate huge sales
- 24. The 6 hot areas Mobile Social Location Games Payments Commerce
- 25. HTML5 or native app? How much do you have to spend? Do you want your brand on the phone? Do you need notifications on the phone? Are location or photos a big part of your app? Is performance important? Can you afford the 30% Apple tax?
- 26. Which mobile platforms? iOS and Android are obvious How much does it cost for other platforms? How much does it cost to maintain? Can you wait to move to other platforms?
- 27. Macromyopia A disease common in VCs where; Overestimate the short term impact Underestimate long term opportunity Many now underestimate the long term opportunity in mobile Mobile is a coming Tsunami Wave