Predictions Sure To Go Wrong (droidcon UK 2011)

ght-H earted
Mo stly Li

Predictions Sure
to Go Wrong (fall 2011 edition)

Copyright © 2011 CommonsWare, LLC

Prediction #1: In three years'
time, 1 out of every 3 mobile
applications will be written
using cross-platform tools


2014: Cross-Platform Tools
● What?
– Web-Centric
● Pure HTML5 Web apps
● PhoneGap (Adobe!), Rhodes, etc.
– App Generators
– Others
● Flash, Mono, Unity 3D, Titanium Mobile, etc.


2014: Cross-Platform Tools
● Why?
– Want to hit closer to 100% of devices without
maintaining individual ports
– Aiming to avoid market-related headaches
● E.g., iOS content subscription sales
● HTML5 Web app plus (perhaps) PhoneGap-wrapped
version in markets
– They chose the tool for the tool's sake, got
cross-platform as a side benefit

Prediction #2: By the end of
this presentation, tablets will
make netbooks irrelevant...
with e-readers to follow by
2014


2014: Tablets
● Netbooks
– Never that popular
– Bluetooth keyboards, keyboard docs
● E-Readers
– Immediately slides to “e-ink display devices”
– More powerful e-ink → no more dedicated e-
readers
● E.g., Pixel Qi

time, Amazon will be the #2
consumer tablet manufacturer


2014: Amazon
● Mass Market Adoption Requires a Story
– Existing technology: the market already knows
the story
● E.g., mobile phones
– New technology: manufacturers need to define
the story
● Unique credible stories → reasons to buy
● Easiest story = brand extension from related
technology

2014: Amazon
● Tablet Stories
– iPad: It's mobile. We're Apple. (duh)
– Kindle Fire: It's a Kindle, with movies and songs
and pissed-off birds and such
● Amazon already established the Kindle story and
effectively created the e-reader segment
● Key question: will it be Android?
– Others: (crickets chirping)


time, there will be a well-
established pecking order for
app distribution


2014: Market Makers
● Primary Markets
– Android Market
– Device Markets
● Amazon Appstore
● Nook
● Blackberry
● Etc.
– Enterprise “Markets”

2014: Market Makers
● What Will Fade
– Carrier Markets
● Mostly just a promotional channel
– Handset Manufacturer Markets
● Mostly just end-around past Android Market
geographic limitations
– Miscellaneous Markets
● Niche audiences only


time, modded ROMs will be
significantly more popular...
though not necessarily for
positive reasons


2014: Modded ROMs
● Positive Reasons for Rise
– More device manufacturer support
– Somebody goes after the enterprise / purpose-
driven device segment
– Specialized vetted ROMs for freedom
● Anti-surveillance
● Pro-sousveillance
● Whole device encryption, etc.

2014: Modded ROMs
● Negative Reasons for Rise
– Increased third-party malware, necessitating
ROM-based defenses
● Permission creep
● Tapjacking
– Increased on-device spyware
● Blackberry keylogger in UAE (2009)
● Carrier IQ


2014: Miscellaneous Predictions
500,000 apps in Android Market NFC doesn't catch on as hoped

1,000 Android device models
Rovio sued by pigs for discrimination

study proves writing books causes hair loss

Oracle v. Google still not resolved
bugdroid sex tape released
better support for apps for small business

jelly bean, key lime pie, layer cake

Apple sues UK, claims Big Ben is rectangle


Predictions Sure To Go Wrong (droidcon UK 2011)

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