Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine
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The document discusses the OpenQuake-engine software for seismic risk assessment. It can perform probabilistic and scenario-based hazard and risk calculations considering various uncertainties. Different calculators within OpenQuake allow scenario risk assessment, scenario damage assessment, probabilistic event-based risk analysis, and benefit-cost analysis of retrofitting options. The software is open source and can be run on single computers or cloud platforms.
Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine
- 1. Risk studies using OpenQuake-engine Catalina Yepes Estrada, Vitor Silva, Helen Crowley GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy
- 2. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine an Open Source Software for Seismic Risk Assessment
- 3. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Free, publically available and open-source Combines hazard and risk calculations Scenario and probabilistic seismic hazard and risk Considers a wide spectrum of uncertainties Different types of assets can be considered Allows calculations at many scales Runs on single laptop as well as on a cloud
- 4. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Scenario risk Scenario damage Benefit-cost ratio Probabilistic event-based risk Classical PSHA based risk
- 5. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Scenario risk Scenario damage Benefit-cost ratio Probabilistic event-based risk Classical PSHA based risk
- 6. Scenario Risk Calculator Median ground motion field Exposure model Vulnerability functions
- 7. Scenario Risk Calculator Ground motion fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions Loss statistics Mean loss map
- 8. Scenario Risk - Pisco Mw 8.0 (Peru, August 2007)
- 9. Scenario Risk - Pisco Mw 8.0 (Peru, August 2007)
- 10. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Scenario risk Scenario damage Benefit-cost ratio Probabilistic event-based risk Classical PSHA based risk
- 11. Scenario Damage Calculator Ground motion fields Exposure model Fragility functions Damage Distribution Damage map
- 12. Scenario Damage Calculator Distribution of damage per building typology
- 13. Scenario Damage Calculator Distribution of damage per building typology (percentage of total exposed buildings )
- 15. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Scenario risk Scenario damage Benefit-cost ratio Probabilistic event-based risk Classical PSHA based risk
- 16. Classical PSHA-based Calculator Sets of hazard curves Exposure model Vulnerability functions Loss curves Loss maps
- 17. Economic loss map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years Mean loss map 16th percentile -6° W 42° N 42° N 41° N 41° N 40° N 40° N 39° N 39° N 38° N 38° N 37° N 37° N -6° W -7° W -7° W -8° W -8° W -9° W -9° W Economic loss (million €) < 2.5 2.5 -4.6 4.6 -7.2 7.2 -11.0 11.0 -16.1 16.1 -23.6 23.6 -39.9 39.9 -67.2 67.2 -120.6 > 120.6 84th percentile Classical PSHA based risk calculator Mean loss map 16th percentile 6° W 42° N 42° N 41° N 41° N 40° N 40° N 39° N 39° N 38° N 38° N 37° N 37° N 6° W 7° W 7° W 8° W 8° W 9° W 9° W Economic loss (million €) < 2.5 2.5 - 4.6 4.6 - 7.2 7.2 - 11.0 11.0 -16.1 16.1 -23.6 23.6 - 39.9 39.9 -67.2 67.2 - 120.6 >120 84th percentile Loss exceedance curve for each asset in the exposed portfolio
- 18. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Scenario risk Scenario damage Benefit-cost ratio Probabilistic event-based risk Classical PSHA based risk
- 19. Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator Sets ground motion fields Exposure model Vulnerability functions Loss curves Loss maps
- 20. Probabilistic event-based risk calculator Risk assessment for downtown Pavia (Italy) • 1255 building • Soil effects Vs30 • 100.000 stochastic event sets • 1 Year investigation time
- 21. Probabilistic event-based risk calculator Loss map 2%, 10% and 50% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years < 100€ 140€ - 190€ 300€ - 400€ > 600€ Aggregated loss curve AAL 4.8 M€ 0.6% total replacement cost
- 22. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Scenario risk Scenario damage Benefit-cost ratio Probabilistic event-based risk Classical PSHA based risk
- 23. Benefit-cost ratio calculator 15000 12000 9000 6000 3000 0 EAL-C EAL-R Average expected annual loss (dollars) Loss exceedance curve r inflation rate t life expectancy
- 24. Benefit-cost ratio calculator Original vulnerability model Retrofitted vulnerability model
- 25. Benefit-cost ratio calculator 15000 12000 9000 6000 3000 0 EAL-C EAL-R Average expected annual loss (dollars) Loss exceedance curve r inflation rate t life expectancy It is a decision-support tool that helps to understand whether retrofitting interventions are justifiable from an economical perspective
- 26. Benefit-cost ratio calculator Benefit/cost ratio, AAL(original) and AAL(retrofitted).
- 27. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Classical PSHA-based Risk Calculator Scenario Damage Assessment Calculator Improved Performance Scenario Risk Calculator Benefit-cost Ratio Calculator Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator Extended data model Insured losses Fixed bugs QA tests Beta distributions
- 28. Risk studies using the OpenQuake-engine Thank you!
- 29. Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Editor's Notes
- #7: Calculators capable of computing losses and damage distribution for a collection of assets given a single deterministic event
- #8: Calculators capable of computing losses and damage distribution for a collection of assets given a single deterministic event
- #13: Only presenting the MEAN results for 1000 gmf realizations Distribution of damage per building typology
- #14: Only presenting the MEAN results for 1000 gmf realizations Distribution of damage per building typology
- #15: Only presenting the MEAN results for 1000 gmf realizations Distribution of damage per building typology
- #18: loss exceedance curves (i.e. probabilities of exceedance for a set of loss thresholds)
- #20: It estimates the probability of exceedance of certain levels of loss for a portfolio of assets within a given time span, based on stochastic event sets. These sets of events are the result of hazard analysis through the Monte Carlo approach
- #21: this calculator was utilized for generating the total loss exceedance curve for the whole portfolio of buildings considered in the exposure model
- #22: this calculator was utilized for generating the total loss exceedance curve for the whole portfolio of buildings considered in the exposure model
- #27: Only structural losses, No business interruption, content people
- #28: improvements thanks to feedbacks and tests and we are open to your comments