EMME project_OQRelease
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The document outlines the development of a regional seismic hazard model for the Middle East, coordinated by a team led by Laurentiu Danciu and including contributions from various institutions. It emphasizes the creation of a standardized, validated, and reproducible model, integrating both historical and modern seismic data across different zones. The ultimate goal is to establish a scalable database for continuous updates and analyses of seismic hazards in the region.
![Depth Distribution (three values and the
corresponding weights):
– Active shallow crust
– Nested Deep Seismicity
– Subduction Inslab
Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
– Percentage weights
Ruptures Orientation
– Strike Angle (Azimuth)
– Dip Angle
Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
Area Source
[Single Rupture]
Source Parameterization](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/emmeoqrelease-150123044705-conversion-gate01/85/EMME-project_OQRelease-16-320.jpg)
![PGA [g]
RP=475yrs](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/emmeoqrelease-150123044705-conversion-gate01/85/EMME-project_OQRelease-17-320.jpg)
![Fault Sources
Criteria to select “capable” or active faults to be used for hazard
assessment:
– Identified active faults [capable of earthquakes]: Northern Anatolian
Faults, Marmara Faults, Zagros Transform Faults
– At least 0.10mm/year (1m in 1000years - Neocene)
– Maximum magnitude equal to 6.00
– Fully parameterized:
• Geometry
• Slip-rates
– Confidence Classes:
• Class A: complete information provided by the compiler
• Class B: partial information provided by compiler
• Class C: limited information provided
• Class D: only top trace available](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/emmeoqrelease-150123044705-conversion-gate01/85/EMME-project_OQRelease-20-320.jpg)
![Source Parameterization
Depth Distribution
Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
– Percentage weights
Ruptures Orientation: Strike and Dip Angles
Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
Point Source
[Single Rupture]
Fault Top Trace
Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
Ruptures Orientation: Strike and Dip Angles
Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
Simple Fault](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/emmeoqrelease-150123044705-conversion-gate01/85/EMME-project_OQRelease-26-320.jpg)
![PGA [g]
RP=475yrs](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/emmeoqrelease-150123044705-conversion-gate01/85/EMME-project_OQRelease-27-320.jpg)
EMME project_OQRelease
- 2. Hazard Modelers: Laurentiu DANCIU, Karin SESETYAN and Mine B. DEMIRCIOGLU, Project Coordinators: Domenico GIARDINI and Mustafa ERDIK EMME Consortium Condtributing to hazard components: METU, SAU (TR), IIEES (IR), AUB (LB), YU (JO), Upesh (PK), IJSU (GE), SCI (ARM), ANAS (AZ) EMME-HAZ-2014: SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL and RESULTS for THE MIDDLE EAST REGION
- 3. SEISMIC HAZARD COMPONENTS OUR MAJOR AIM WAS TO BUILD A regional consensus model Homogenized across national boundaries
- 4. Target
- 5. All steps of the seismic hazard assessment have to be: – Validated – Benchmarked – Reproducible – Standardized – Inter-Comparable – Testable
- 6. EQ Catalog Harmonized in terms of Mw Total: 27174 Events Historical part (-1900) Early and modern instrumental (~2006) Declustering Method: Grunthal (1985) After Declustering 10524 Events 18 Completeness Super- Zones Mw>=6.00 EMME14 Catalogue Completeness Super-Zones
- 7. Two fully independent source zonation models: – Area source model • Active shallow and stable continental areal sources • Subduction interface modeled as complex fault • Deep areal sources – All activity computed from seismicity – Fault source and background seismicity model • Fault sources in 3D • Background seismicity • Subduction interface modeled as complex fault • Deep seismicity – Fault activity computed from slip rates
- 8. Maximum Magnitude Upper-bound magnitude to the earthquake recurrence (frequency-magnitude) curve. Maximum Magnitude assessment (Super-Zones) – Historical seismicity record – Location uncertainties – Analogies to tectonic regions – Added increment (0.30)
- 9. Source Model Logic Tree
- 10. Area Source Model Classical area source zones based on the tectonic findings and their correlation and up-to-day seismicity Derived from seismicity patterns Ensure the zonation adequately reflect this pattern Surface projection of identified active faults (capable of generating earthquakes)
- 11. Subduction Interface Deep Seismicity Shallow Seismicity Area Source Model Three Source Layers 224 shallow 10 Deep 6 Interface
- 12. Area Source Model EMCA source model integration and harmonization New tectonic regionalization: stable continental regions (yellow)
- 13. Source Characterization Homogeneous, declustered catalogue Completeness defined for 18 super zones Maximum likelihood approach (Weichert 1984) – Truncated Guttenberg-Richter Magnitude Frequency Distribution • 10a – annual number of events of magnitude greater or equal to zero • b-GR value Truncated at each assigned maximum magnitude For each source three magnitude-frequency-distributions were derived A Matlab* toolbox was developed
- 14. • Shallow Sources: Activity aGR Values bGR Values
- 15. Deep Seismicity - Activity aGR Values bGR Values
- 16. Depth Distribution (three values and the corresponding weights): – Active shallow crust – Nested Deep Seismicity – Subduction Inslab Focal Mechanisms – Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition) – Percentage weights Ruptures Orientation – Strike Angle (Azimuth) – Dip Angle Rupture Properties – Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth Area Source [Single Rupture] Source Parameterization
- 18. Source Model Logic Tree
- 19. Fault source model derived from the faults database collected within WP2 – Total number: 3397 fault segments, total Km: 91551km EMME Faults Dataset
- 20. Fault Sources Criteria to select “capable” or active faults to be used for hazard assessment: – Identified active faults [capable of earthquakes]: Northern Anatolian Faults, Marmara Faults, Zagros Transform Faults – At least 0.10mm/year (1m in 1000years - Neocene) – Maximum magnitude equal to 6.00 – Fully parameterized: • Geometry • Slip-rates – Confidence Classes: • Class A: complete information provided by the compiler • Class B: partial information provided by compiler • Class C: limited information provided • Class D: only top trace available
- 21. Deep Seismicity Active Faults Subduction Interface Four Source Layers Faults 10 Deep 9 Interface Background Seismicity Fault Source Model
- 22. Fault Source Model • 15 km buffer zone around the surface projection of the fault sources • M>=6.0 in the buffer zones assigned to fault sources • M<6.0 in the buffer zones from smoothed seismicity • Smoothed background seismicity outside the buffer zones
- 23. Fault Source Model Slip rate Fault length / aspect ratio Maximum Magnitude Anderson & Luco (1983) Recurrence Model 2 b-value from the completeness super zones
- 25. Subduction interface Earthquake Recurrence – From seismicity (area source model) – From slip rates (fault source model)
- 26. Source Parameterization Depth Distribution Focal Mechanisms – Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition) – Percentage weights Ruptures Orientation: Strike and Dip Angles Rupture Properties – Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth Point Source [Single Rupture] Fault Top Trace Focal Mechanisms – Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition) Ruptures Orientation: Strike and Dip Angles Rupture Properties – Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth Simple Fault
- 28. Logic Tree
- 29. AS Model only 475 years
- 30. AS Model only 2475 years
- 31. FS Model only 475 years
- 32. FS Model only 2475 years
- 33. LOGIC TREE COMBINATION COMBINED MODEL AS MODEL FS MODEL
- 34. AS: 60%, FS: 40%, 475 years
- 35. AS: 60%, FS: 40%, 2475 years
- 36. Hazard Computed for Spectral ordinates • PGA • SA (T=0.1 s) • SA (T=0.15 s) • SA (T=0.2 s) • SA (T=0.25 s) • SA (T=0.3 s) • SA (T=0.5 s) • SA (T=0.75 s) • SA (T=1.0 s) • SA (T=2.0 s)
- 41. Summary • Building a regional seismic hazard model is a collective effort • Aim at generating the up-to-date , flexible and scalable database that will permit continuous update, refinement, and analysis. • Data will be parameterized and input into the database with a specific format.
- 42. Thank you!
- 43. Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalquakemodel.org