Simulation panel discussion
- 1. dseConsulting An independent provider of research and analysis, dseConsulting applies modelling and simulation techniques to reduce the risks inherent in strategic decision making and improve clients' long term business performance. Specialising in targeted business modelling, operational research and market analysis, dseConsulting is one of the only UK practitioners of Agent Based Simulation (ABS). Founder, David Buxton, is proud of his company's burgeoning reputation for rapid and thorough assimilation of commercial challenges and close collaboration with the executive and functional management teams of clients including Agusta Westland, Volvo Aero, HMRC and Tesco. dseConsulting's bespoke, practical solutions, supported by AnyLogic, have been proven to deliver valuable insights and tangible benefits, effective immediately from implementation. Case studies are available on request. AnyLogic This unique, multi-paradigm business simulation software integrates Discrete Event Simulation, System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modelling, facilitating the capture of heterogeneous and complex systems, to any level of detail, and enabling researchers to quickly model business processes and human behaviour. dseConsulting is the only UK supplier of AnyLogic with the requisite level of expertise to put together projects, and train and support clients, to facilitate the migration of ABS from external consultancy to in-house technique. Cranfield University has introduced ABS in this way, as has Nottingham University where David Buxton provides ongoing support via monthly clinics. To find out more about introducing ABS via AnyLogic to your research, contact David Buxton. David Buxton MSc Operations Management & Manufacturing Systems with subsequent PhD research in “The Use of Agent-Based Simulation for Operations Strategy”, David Buxton has published conference papers on: • Simulating Operations Strategy – An Agent-Based Model for the Aviation Sector • Simulation for Operations Strategy in the New, Service-Based Aero Industry • The Aero-Engine Value Chain under Future Business Environments: Using Agent-Based Simulation to Understand Dynamic Behaviour Starting out in Operational Management, David returned to academia in 2005 to lead a research team developing Agent-Based Simulation to support strategic decision making. In 2008, he launched dseConsulting to apply his knowledge and expertise on behalf of clients in the aerospace, retail and public sectors. David has a special interest in exploring the benefits of Agent-Based Simulation, through academic research and commercial application, to deliver insight which will • forecast the consequences of business decisions • identify commercial sensitivities to changes in customer and supplier behaviour • augment understanding of the financial and operational drivers of business Working as often with early adopting, highly engaged Marketing & Insight teams as he does with Operational Management, David has made significant advances in the application of Agent-Based Simulation. For further information or to explore opportunities for collaboration, please email: dave@dseconsulting.co.uk OR Simulation Workshop 2010 – Plenary Panel David Buxton, dseConsulting
- 2. Agent-Based Simulation: An Introduction ABS is an increasingly popular tool for investigating behaviour in complex, non-linear systems and for evaluating the long term operational implications of strategy and policy decisions. Unlike the system level view of Discrete Event Simulation, which treats individual autonomous agents as aggregated averages or passive entities in a system lifetime, ABS focuses on the behaviour, interactions and relationships of individual or collective entities, which might be employees, products, projects, companies, ideas, patients, consumers etc, and assesses their impact on the system as a whole. ABS can leverage the under-utilised data amassed in CRM, HR and ERP databases, allowing researchers to re-create and predict the appearance of complex phenomena and compare scenarios to optimise strategy. In an individual-centric age of social networks and service-based economies, ABS is an evolutionary step in the understanding and management of complex business and social systems. While there may be little evidence that Agent-Based Simulation is much used in the OR community, research professionals have the opportunity to embrace ABS as an additional tool, alongside Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics, to support more robust strategy decisions in increasingly complex environments. “DES is dead, long live ABS” “As a practitioner of Agent-Based Simulation, I would like to assure the audience and other panel members that the choice of title for this session was not mine!” David Buxton Q1. How can we define ABS in OR? How does it differ from DES? How does ABS in OR differ? Within OR, my view is that ABS is related to complexity rather than focusing on human systems and should be applied where it adds practical value and new insights. DES and ABS can be used to complementary to each other. The primary difference between the techniques is conceptual: DES being a top-down (macro) view while ABS is bottom- up (micro to macro), focusing on the drivers of the system, modelling their important actions, decisions and interactions and understanding why, not just observing what happens to them. Other disciplines probably implement ABS closer to its theoretical origins: encapsulating artificial intelligence to a human decision maker, or making autonomous agents that can make decisions on our behalf. Q2. What kind of phenomena can ABS help us to understand better? ABS is particularly useful in environments where the life cycle of the driving element is important, where system-level performance is a function of a population of influences and interactions and where complexity makes it too difficult for users to comprehend and model as a single entity; in other words, in our modern, service-orientated world in which even OEMs sell bundled product and services. And, while DES still has a role to play modelling specific aspects of systems, to truly understand complex interactions, tools such as ABS will need to be applied. Further, ABS researchers can apply simulation to broader applications than traditional techniques, encompassing policy decision making within a marketing and strategy team, improving call centre dynamics and optimising asset lifecycle management, by applying the same underlying modelling concepts, techniques and software. Q3. What barriers exist for ABS to achieve such universal acceptance? In my experience, customer engagement is very high in ABS projects. The technique is increasingly popular in industry and was recently adopted by Westland Helicopters and Volvo and is under consideration by Rolls-Royce and Thales. From a modeller's perspective, barriers exist because the software is technical and it's not easy to see a way for it to become drag and drop. Additionally, ABS is still viewed by some as being in competition with other methods; acceptance should grow when it is seen simply as part of a larger tool set which includes DES and SD. And, from the customer's perspective, there is a need to keep inputs simple, even an Agent Based Model must accept some simplification and assumption. Using ABS it is harder to draw the boundaries around the modelling problem, and currently, an universally accepted design methodology is missing. To overcome these barriers, I would propose teaching ABS in universities or as specific course eg Cranfield (Modelling Complexity), improving accessibility with books and other reference material, and ultimately, waiting: as today's OR Simulation Workshop 2010 – Plenary Panel David Buxton, dseConsulting
- 3. researcher and students move into industry, they will bring a greater awareness of the power of object oriented modelling and ABS. OR Simulation Workshop 2010 – Plenary Panel David Buxton, dseConsulting