Theory-Driven Scenario Development
- 1. Theory-Driven Scenario Development Using theories of change and stability to anchor alternative futures Scenario 2015: Improving Scenario Methodology: Theory and Practice Warwick Business School, December 14, 2015
- 2. Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD Vision Foresight Strategy LLC “Reframing the future.” www.visionforesightstrategy.com richard@visionforesightstrategy.com
- 3. A Theory-Driven Method for Scenarios TOCS + TEI + Ins + Int = futuresalt • TOCS = theories of change and stability • TEI = trends and emerging issues • Ins = inspiration from historical precedents and minor models • Int = human intuition and creativity
- 4. Scenario Outputs Qualitative scenarios Framed by explicit theories Inherently divergent forecasts Require futures research Future histories rather than just the scenario end states
- 5. Mānoa Futures Program RAND: Long-Term Policy Analysis • Shaping the Next 100 Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis • Based on software support • Large “ensembles of scenarios” rather than a single model Origins and Rationale • Founded in 1976 • James Dator, PhD • All futures work should be based on a theory of change • “If you’re not using a theory of change and stability, then you’re just making things up.”
- 6. Lum’s Formula for Futures TOCS + TEI + Ins + Int = futuresalt
- 7. • Anchor the scenario and focus user attention on certain types of trends, emerging issues, and actors • Theories that identify the variables and relationships that explain why things do and do not change • From grand macrohistorical theories to models of individual behavior TOCS: Theories of Change and Stability
- 8. • The “building blocks” of the scenarios • Trends: historical changes over time; carry us to the present • Emerging issues: new technologies, policy issues, and concepts that are not yet mainstream but which may shape the future TEI: Trends and Emerging Issues
- 9. • Additional patterns to help structure a scenario, based on observed historical experience • Historical precedents • “Minor” models of change – Meso or micro level models – Systems dynamics Ins: Inspiration
- 10. • The necessary creative element • Using human intuition to make innovative leaps • Using human story-telling ability to weave together a compelling narrative Int: Intuition
- 11. Prior prep and futures research Define focal issue, time horizon Determine number of scenarios and TOCS Assign TOCS Identify relevant TEI Begin work, often with bits of Inspiration Sprinkle Intuition Rough drafts Using the Method as Process
- 12. Innovation to Match Our Biases TOCS + TEI + Ins + Int = futuresalt Anticipating change (forecasting) Provoking new thinking (provocation)
- 13. Sample: Futures of Learning in Hawai‘i Worker designed by Bart Laugs from The Noun Project; Hiking Trail designed by Garrett Dash Nelson from The Noun Project; Cloud Upload designed by Adam Whitcroft from The Noun Project Beehive designed by Maximillian Becker from The Noun Project
- 14. Advantages • Focused on the dynamics of change (not end states) • Grounded, yet requires futures research and creativity • Generates fundamentally divergent scenarios Challenges • Selecting and using TOCS • Works best with a lot of preparatory research • High cognitive load on participants • Demands a lot of iterative, causal thinking Critique of the Method
- 15. • When scenarios need to be grounded and diverse • When participants need to focus on how and why change happens • When you have more time Selecting This Method as an Option Anticipating change (forecasting) Provoking new thinking (provocation) Sweet spot