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When
                               Machine
                                     Think
                               Peter Cochrane

                                cochrane.org.uk

                                 ca-global.org


                               COCHRANE
                               a s s o c i a t e s

Thursday, 10 November 2011
The majority of human knowledge has been
 derived from collaborating with machines
                             ✦   Details of the cosmos
                             ✦   Details of the atom
                             ✦   Decoding the genome
                             ✦   Decoding proteins
                             ✦   Evolutionary science
                             ✦   Weather prediction
                             ✦   The spread of disease
                             ✦   Biological operations
                             ✦   Network traffic flows
                             ✦   The physics of flight
                             ✦   Power generation
                             ✦   +++++

Thursday, 10 November 2011
That knowledge is now being shared by way
  of new mechanisms on a vast scale...

       Această cunoaştere este acum
       împărtăşită prin intermediul unor
       mecanisme noi pe scară largă ...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Social networking
                             Other people:




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Social networking
                             Other people:

                                          * Read
                                          * Watch
                                          * Listen
                                          * Search
                                          * Think
                                          * Work
                                          * Solve problems
                                          * Try products
                                          * Find good services
                                          * Organise group purchases

                             So I don’t have to !
Thursday, 10 November 2011
Machines now manufacture more products
  and control more things than we do
                             ✦   Integrated circuits
                             ✦   Hard drives
                             ✦   Displays
                             ✦   Computers
                             ✦   Mobile phones
                             ✦   ++++
                             ✦   Food
                             ✦   Clothing
                             ✦   ++++
                             ✦   Production lines
                             ✦   Traffic flows
                             ✦   Aircraft
                             ✦   +++++
Thursday, 10 November 2011
We are creating a society of networked
  people and things...

                             ✦   Cars
                             ✦   Trains
                             ✦   Planes
                             ✦   Homes
                             ✦   Offices
                             ✦   Devices
                             ✦   Television
                             ✦   Services
                             ✦   Support
                             ✦   Supply
                             ✦   Sales
                             ✦   +++++
Thursday, 10 November 2011
And we have started to understand the
       depth of something deep & fundamental

                             ✦   The universe is unstable
                             ✦   It is not well behaved
                             ✦   It is not linear
                             ✦   It is chaotic & non-linear
                             ✦   It may be beyond our understanding




Thursday, 10 November 2011
What does this really mean?

         Ce înseamnă aceasta cu adevărat?




Thursday, 10 November 2011
We may never fully understand....

                                   ✦   Tsunamis
                                   ✦   Ecologies
                                   ✦   Earthquakes
                                   ✦   Heart attacks
                                   ✦   Power outages
                                   ✦   Market collapses
                                   ✦   Weather systems
                                   ✦   Network instabilities
                                   ✦   Socio-political problems
                                   ✦   Genome - Protein interaction
                                   ✦   +++
Thursday, 10 November 2011
Responding in time saves lives, resources,
    time, money....and perhaps the planet...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
We only have one prospective solution - a
       partnership with our machines...
                             ✦   They store all our data
                             ✦   They control our infrastructure
                             ✦   They communicate with our sensors
                             ✦   We totally depend on them
                             ✦   They are slowly getting smarter
                             ✦   But will they ever be intelligent ?
                             ✦   Will they ever be more than super
                                 adding machines & data repositories ?


Thursday, 10 November 2011
What we know for sure !
                             Ceea ce ştim sigur!




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Continuing to increase computing power &
   memory/storage will not lead to intelligence




Thursday, 10 November 2011
How do we know ?

                             Cum ştim?


Thursday, 10 November 2011
We have a model for intelligence that
       says that sensors & actuators are vital...

                             Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
                 S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory



                   ✦   No input = no intelligence
                   ✦   No output = no intelligence
                   ✦   Memory stores facts and experiences
                   ✦   Processing power defines the time to solve


Thursday, 10 November 2011
The primary reason that my laptop is
       dumb is that it has no sensory system....




Thursday, 10 November 2011
But we are building extensive networks of
       sensors and that is the first step....




Thursday, 10 November 2011
But we are building extensive networks of
       sensors and that is the first step....


                                                         00 0’s
                                                      e 1
                                                 in th
                                          b er
                                        um
                                     lyn
                                   on
                             he se
                       T


Thursday, 10 November 2011
However, our biggest network of sensors
      numbers in the 1,000,000,000s....




Thursday, 10 November 2011
However, our biggest network of sensors
      numbers in the 1,000,000,000s....



               Smart phones could be the ultimate
               sensor network




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Deci, ce zici de faptul că meta-date?


Thursday, 10 November 2011
So, how about that Meta-Data ?

           Deci, ce zici de faptul că meta-date?


Thursday, 10 November 2011
What does it
        know
      about you?




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Where you are ?
                             Where you have been ?
      What does it           Where you are likely to be going to ?
                             Who you have met ?
        know                 Who you are going to meet ?
                             Who you call ?
      about you?             Who calls you ?
                             Who you TXT - IM - Link ?
                             All your contacts
                             All your urls
                             All you passwords
                             What you are doing now ?
                             What have you done in the past ?
                             What games you play ?
                             What apps you use ?
                             What music you listen to...?
                             What you watch...?
                             What you read...?
                             ++++++++++

Thursday, 10 November 2011
Soon to be
         enhanced
         with more
          sensors!




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Soon to be
         enhanced
                             Enhance 2D/3D Camera
         with more           Enhanced microphone
                             Enhanced GPS
          sensors!           Air pressure
                             Humidity
                             Pollutant detection
                             WiFi triangulation
                             Medical/Care extensions
                             RFID

                             ++++++++++




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Incramentalism ?




                  This really isn’t the next step - it really isn’t !!


Thursday, 10 November 2011
Incramentalism ?




          The banks/card companies are gearing up to do this !!


Thursday, 10 November 2011
But the real consumer problem is far bigger!

                ID
              Pass
            Debit
            Credit
           Guides
           Loyalty
          Medical
         Licences
       Insurances
      Institutions
     Quick Notes
     Memberships
    ++++++++++
                             How many more can you cope with?


Thursday, 10 November 2011
But the real consumer problem is far bigger!

                ID
              Pass
            Debit
            Credit
           Guides
           Loyalty
          Medical
         Licences
       Insurances
      Institutions
     Quick Notes
     Memberships
    ++++++++++
                             Just manage my life for me!


Thursday, 10 November 2011
But the real consumer problem is far bigger!




                             Just manage my life for me!


Thursday, 10 November 2011
But the real consumer problem is far bigger!




                                                           iCards

                             Just manage my life for me!


Thursday, 10 November 2011
But the real consumer problem is far bigger!




                                                           iCards

                             Just manage my life for me!


Thursday, 10 November 2011
Much of this technology will be extended to
  other vehicles...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
At a lower technology level we
will also see tagging for life




Thursday, 10 November 2011
At a lower technology level we
will also see tagging for life


                                                Cradle
                             Chunky
                             Limited           to Pretty
                                                   Grave
                             information
                              technology         Data
                                                  Jewellery




         Chips and tags on and in everything
         including goods, animals & people

Thursday, 10 November 2011
So, what’s the big deal ?
             Deci, ce-i mare scofală?



Thursday, 10 November 2011
Our logistic systems waste a significant % of
  the global GDP...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Data, admin, dosage, treatment errors kill
  1000’s or sees serious disablement !




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Modern farming sees tagged crops and
  animals + vehicles and supplies !




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Industrial and personal recycling and reuse
  could be vastly improved to reduce waste !




Thursday, 10 November 2011
But it all requires even more attention to data...
      Dar aceasta necesită o atenţie tot mai
      mult la datele ...

      • There is $$ in data
      • Even more $$ in meta data



    • Există $ $ în date
    • Chiar mai mult $ $ în meta-date



Thursday, 10 November 2011
But it all requires even more attention to data...
      Dar aceasta necesită o atenţie tot mai
      mult la datele ...

      • There is $$ in data
      • Even more $$ in meta data



    • Există $ $ în date
    • Chiar mai mult $ $ în meta-date



Thursday, 10 November 2011
Ultimately this is all about sustainability and
  survivability!
                             ✦   Not more for the few
                             ✦   But sufficient for all

                             ✦   Using what is plentiful
                             ✦   Not fighting over the scarce

                             ✦   Creating less waste
                             ✦   Helping nature not fighting her

                             ✦   Living in a way the planet can
                                 support


Thursday, 10 November 2011
Other implications ?
                             Alte implicaţii?



Thursday, 10 November 2011
We understand a lot about the sociology of people,
 but nothing about the sociology of machines !




Thursday, 10 November 2011
But as everything
                             is more and more
                             networked...then
                             we can assume
                             that new levels of
                             intelligence will
                             also emerge...


Thursday, 10 November 2011
An early arrival - the 3D printer, replication
      at a distance, and machines designing
      machines...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
What can we do with AI & AL now?




Thursday, 10 November 2011
This was not designed by man.....




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Atomic manipulation has been a reality for some
        time…




Thursday, 10 November 2011
We have decoded the genome and have made a
          start on proteins…we can manipulate both...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
A new ability to program materials to form 3D
    objects of a predefined shape and function...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
A new ability to program materials to form 3D
    objects of a predefined shape and function...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part
 reality...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
And then there are sensors !




Thursday, 10 November 2011
Creativity is moving
                             to the edge.... out of
                             control, open, and
                             distributed...




Thursday, 10 November 2011
We will then see new:
                             ✦   ways of thinking
                             ✦   discoveries
                             ✦   perceptions
                             ✦   understanding
                             ✦   capabilities

                             Society and companies will be
                             changed...

Thursday, 10 November 2011
Final Word


           The £ $ € is in the ʻMeta Dataʼ

   $ £ € este în zona "Date Meta"



Thursday, 10 November 2011
ca-global.org
             cochrane.org.uk


           Thank You
     mulţumesc
               COCHRANE
                 a s s o c i a t e s

                                       1995

Thursday, 10 November 2011

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When machines think

  • 1. When Machine Think Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 2. The majority of human knowledge has been derived from collaborating with machines ✦ Details of the cosmos ✦ Details of the atom ✦ Decoding the genome ✦ Decoding proteins ✦ Evolutionary science ✦ Weather prediction ✦ The spread of disease ✦ Biological operations ✦ Network traffic flows ✦ The physics of flight ✦ Power generation ✦ +++++ Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 3. That knowledge is now being shared by way of new mechanisms on a vast scale... Această cunoaştere este acum împărtăşită prin intermediul unor mecanisme noi pe scară largă ... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 4. Social networking Other people: Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 5. Social networking Other people: * Read * Watch * Listen * Search * Think * Work * Solve problems * Try products * Find good services * Organise group purchases So I don’t have to ! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 6. Machines now manufacture more products and control more things than we do ✦ Integrated circuits ✦ Hard drives ✦ Displays ✦ Computers ✦ Mobile phones ✦ ++++ ✦ Food ✦ Clothing ✦ ++++ ✦ Production lines ✦ Traffic flows ✦ Aircraft ✦ +++++ Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 7. We are creating a society of networked people and things... ✦ Cars ✦ Trains ✦ Planes ✦ Homes ✦ Offices ✦ Devices ✦ Television ✦ Services ✦ Support ✦ Supply ✦ Sales ✦ +++++ Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 8. And we have started to understand the depth of something deep & fundamental ✦ The universe is unstable ✦ It is not well behaved ✦ It is not linear ✦ It is chaotic & non-linear ✦ It may be beyond our understanding Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 9. What does this really mean? Ce înseamnă aceasta cu adevărat? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 10. We may never fully understand.... ✦ Tsunamis ✦ Ecologies ✦ Earthquakes ✦ Heart attacks ✦ Power outages ✦ Market collapses ✦ Weather systems ✦ Network instabilities ✦ Socio-political problems ✦ Genome - Protein interaction ✦ +++ Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 11. Responding in time saves lives, resources, time, money....and perhaps the planet... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 12. We only have one prospective solution - a partnership with our machines... ✦ They store all our data ✦ They control our infrastructure ✦ They communicate with our sensors ✦ We totally depend on them ✦ They are slowly getting smarter ✦ But will they ever be intelligent ? ✦ Will they ever be more than super adding machines & data repositories ? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 13. What we know for sure ! Ceea ce ştim sigur! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 14. Continuing to increase computing power & memory/storage will not lead to intelligence Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 15. How do we know ? Cum ştim? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 16. We have a model for intelligence that says that sensors & actuators are vital... Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )] S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory ✦ No input = no intelligence ✦ No output = no intelligence ✦ Memory stores facts and experiences ✦ Processing power defines the time to solve Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 17. The primary reason that my laptop is dumb is that it has no sensory system.... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 18. But we are building extensive networks of sensors and that is the first step.... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 19. But we are building extensive networks of sensors and that is the first step.... 00 0’s e 1 in th b er um lyn on he se T Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 20. However, our biggest network of sensors numbers in the 1,000,000,000s.... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 21. However, our biggest network of sensors numbers in the 1,000,000,000s.... Smart phones could be the ultimate sensor network Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 22. Deci, ce zici de faptul că meta-date? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 23. So, how about that Meta-Data ? Deci, ce zici de faptul că meta-date? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 24. What does it know about you? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 25. Where you are ? Where you have been ? What does it Where you are likely to be going to ? Who you have met ? know Who you are going to meet ? Who you call ? about you? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++ Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 26. Soon to be enhanced with more sensors! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 27. Soon to be enhanced Enhance 2D/3D Camera with more Enhanced microphone Enhanced GPS sensors! Air pressure Humidity Pollutant detection WiFi triangulation Medical/Care extensions RFID ++++++++++ Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 28. Incramentalism ? This really isn’t the next step - it really isn’t !! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 29. Incramentalism ? The banks/card companies are gearing up to do this !! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 30. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! ID Pass Debit Credit Guides Loyalty Medical Licences Insurances Institutions Quick Notes Memberships ++++++++++ How many more can you cope with? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 31. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! ID Pass Debit Credit Guides Loyalty Medical Licences Insurances Institutions Quick Notes Memberships ++++++++++ Just manage my life for me! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 32. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! Just manage my life for me! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 33. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! iCards Just manage my life for me! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 34. But the real consumer problem is far bigger! iCards Just manage my life for me! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 35. Much of this technology will be extended to other vehicles... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 36. At a lower technology level we will also see tagging for life Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 37. At a lower technology level we will also see tagging for life Cradle Chunky Limited to Pretty Grave information technology Data Jewellery Chips and tags on and in everything including goods, animals & people Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 38. So, what’s the big deal ? Deci, ce-i mare scofală? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 39. Our logistic systems waste a significant % of the global GDP... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 40. Data, admin, dosage, treatment errors kill 1000’s or sees serious disablement ! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 41. Modern farming sees tagged crops and animals + vehicles and supplies ! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 42. Industrial and personal recycling and reuse could be vastly improved to reduce waste ! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 43. But it all requires even more attention to data... Dar aceasta necesită o atenţie tot mai mult la datele ... • There is $$ in data • Even more $$ in meta data • Există $ $ în date • Chiar mai mult $ $ în meta-date Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 44. But it all requires even more attention to data... Dar aceasta necesită o atenţie tot mai mult la datele ... • There is $$ in data • Even more $$ in meta data • Există $ $ în date • Chiar mai mult $ $ în meta-date Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 45. Ultimately this is all about sustainability and survivability! ✦ Not more for the few ✦ But sufficient for all ✦ Using what is plentiful ✦ Not fighting over the scarce ✦ Creating less waste ✦ Helping nature not fighting her ✦ Living in a way the planet can support Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 46. Other implications ? Alte implicaţii? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 47. We understand a lot about the sociology of people, but nothing about the sociology of machines ! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 48. But as everything is more and more networked...then we can assume that new levels of intelligence will also emerge... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 49. An early arrival - the 3D printer, replication at a distance, and machines designing machines... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 50. What can we do with AI & AL now? Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 51. This was not designed by man..... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 52. Atomic manipulation has been a reality for some time… Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 53. We have decoded the genome and have made a start on proteins…we can manipulate both... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 54. A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape and function... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 55. A new ability to program materials to form 3D objects of a predefined shape and function... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 56. Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 57. And then there are sensors ! Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 58. Creativity is moving to the edge.... out of control, open, and distributed... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 59. We will then see new: ✦ ways of thinking ✦ discoveries ✦ perceptions ✦ understanding ✦ capabilities Society and companies will be changed... Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 60. Final Word The £ $ € is in the ʻMeta Dataʼ $ £ € este în zona "Date Meta" Thursday, 10 November 2011
  • 61. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You mulţumesc COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s 1995 Thursday, 10 November 2011