![Tracking climate change between IPCC report cycles
Substantial increases in ALL climate change
indicators since the publication of IPCC AR6
Matt
➢ Human-induced warming (2013–2022): 1.14 [0.9
to 1.4] °C & 1.26 [1.0 to 1.6]°C in 2022
➢ Human-induced warming (2013-2022) rate
increased (> 0.2 °C per decade): GHG
emissions & reductions in the strength of
aerosol cooling.
➢ Average GHG emissions are still growing, but
at a slower rate in the past decade (2013-2022)
IGCC
Forster et al., 2023](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/whereisglobalwarmingin-231202025705-54e7e821/85/Where-is-global-warming-in-relation-to-the-long-term-temperature-goal-9-320.jpg)
![Earth’s energy imbalance shows clear increase over time
Karina
Successive increases
in EEI for each 20-year
period since 1973, with
an estimated value of
0.44 [0.05 to 0.83] Wm-2
during 1973-1992 that
almost doubled to 0.82
[0.60 to 1.04] Wm-2
during 2003-2022
IGCC, Forster et al., 2023](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/whereisglobalwarmingin-231202025705-54e7e821/85/Where-is-global-warming-in-relation-to-the-long-term-temperature-goal-10-320.jpg)
Where is global warming in relation to the long-term temperature goal?
- 1. 1 December 2023 16:15-17:45 UTC+4 Science for Climate Action Pavilion Where is global warming in relation to the long-term temperature goal? #IPCC #COP28
- 2. Chair Professor Piers Forster Coordinating Lead Author IPCC AR6 Chair UK Climate Change Committee University of Leeds, UK
- 3. Promote science-policy dialogue on: • Understanding 2023’s extreme temperatures in the context of the Paris Agreement • How the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal is interpreted and used in UNFCCC negotiations • How best to track climate change over this critical decade (and between IPCC report cycles) • How best to communicate warming and how it relates to the long-term temperature goal What are we aiming to do in this event?
- 4. Framing Professor Robert Vautard IPCC WGI co-chair Senior CNRS scientist, France Professor Xiaoye Zhang IPCC WGI co-chair Member of Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), China
- 5. Ministerial view Professor Maisa Rojas Minister of Environment, Chile IPCC AR6 and SR1.5 Coordinating Lead Author
- 7. Tracking climate change between IPCC reports Dr. Matt Palmer Lead Author IPCC AR6 Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Bristol, UK Dr. Karina von Schuckmann Lead Author IPCC AR6 Mercator Ocean, France
- 8. Tracking climate change between IPCC report cycles Traceable methods to IPCC AR6 Matt Emissions Concentrations Radiative Forcing Earth’s Energy Budget Surface Temperature Rise Human-induced Warming Forster et al. (2023) Earth System Science Data https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023 ⇒ open data, open science ⇐
- 9. Tracking climate change between IPCC report cycles Substantial increases in ALL climate change indicators since the publication of IPCC AR6 Matt ➢ Human-induced warming (2013–2022): 1.14 [0.9 to 1.4] °C & 1.26 [1.0 to 1.6]°C in 2022 ➢ Human-induced warming (2013-2022) rate increased (> 0.2 °C per decade): GHG emissions & reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. ➢ Average GHG emissions are still growing, but at a slower rate in the past decade (2013-2022) IGCC Forster et al., 2023
- 10. Earth’s energy imbalance shows clear increase over time Karina Successive increases in EEI for each 20-year period since 1973, with an estimated value of 0.44 [0.05 to 0.83] Wm-2 during 1973-1992 that almost doubled to 0.82 [0.60 to 1.04] Wm-2 during 2003-2022 IGCC, Forster et al., 2023
- 11. Attribution of observed warming to human activities Karina ➢ ALL observed warming (2010- 2019; 2013-2022) was human- induced, with solar and volcanic drivers and internal climate variability estimated not to make a contribution. ➢ Estimated human-induced warming is a close match to observed warming IGCC Forster et al., 2023
- 12. Tracking climate change between IPCC report cycles Karina IGCC Foster et al., 2023 The causal chain from emissions to warming ➢ The IPCC AR6 WGI report provides a wide range of information relevant to the Global Stocktake (GST). ➢ These IGCC updates are traceable to and consistent with IPCC report methods, conveying wider understanding of the climate system and its direction of travel as the GST progresses. ➢ Our aim is to update these indicators annually. https://climatechangetracker.org
- 13. Operational estimates of global warming Dr. Carlo Buontempo Contributing author IPCC AR6 ECMWF Director of Copernicus Climate Change Service, Italy John Kennedy Lead author WMO State of the Global Climate Independent climate consultant, France/UK
- 14. WMO State of the Global Climate Report Annual report on the State of the Global Climate covering: • Key climate indicators - including global temperature • High-impact events • Socioeconomic impacts Wide range of inputs: • WMO Members provide information on extreme weather • Scientific experts provide information on key indicators • UN agencies: UNHCR, IOM, FAO, WFP, UNEP, UNDRR, IOC/UNESCO Regional State of the Climate reports produced for; • Africa, • Asia, • Latin America and the Caribbean, • Southwest Pacific, • Europe Decadal report (to be released 5th December) Side event at Science for Climate Action Pavilion 15:30 2nd December John Kennedy
- 15. 2023 on track to be warmest year on record Based on data to October 2023 2023 1.40±0.12°C above the 1850-1900 average. Nine years, 2015-2023, will be the nine warmest years on record. The ten-year average 2014- 2023 global temperature is 1.19±0.12°C above the 1850- 1900 average, the warmest 10- year period on record John Kennedy
- 16. Some operational considerations - Things change IPCC used four long-term data sets Lack of diversity Operationally, data sets get updated every few years New datasets may meet IPCC criteria Transition from research to operations can be challenging
- 17. Consistency Aim for consistency with: • IPCC • Individual data providers • Across the range of reports including previous reports Other constraints: • Different focus - recent change in long-term context • Need regularly updated datasets Temporary solutions: • Use the same baseline 1850-1900 • Use the same datasets • Use precalculated offsets to relate modern base period to 1850-1900 • Show individual datasets John Kennedy
- 18. Operational climate monitoring ● Hottest boreal summer on record (JJA) ● Record global temperatures for every month since June ● Unprecedented September temperatures – the largest positive anomaly ever recorded ● Global temperatures briefly exceeded 2ºC above preindustrial (in ERA5) on 17/18 Nov
- 19. Was it El Niño?
- 20. Approaching 1.5
- 21. Continuous update of climate indicators ● “Global warming” at a point in time refers to the increase in a 30-year average, centred on the specified time, of Earth’s global surface temperature relative to the pre-industrial period; ● “Reaching the limit” refers to the moment when the central time of the 30-year average temperature equals 1.5˚C above pre-industrial values; ● "Pre-industrial values" refers to the approximation of the surface air temperature of this era from the IPCC 'Global warming of 1.5°C' report.
- 22. New UK Met Office dashboard https://climate.metoffice.cloud/current_warming.html Betts et al (2023), Nature
- 23. Dashboards
- 24. Implications for the Paris Agreement Long-Term Temperature Goal Dr. Carl Schleussner Head of Science, Climate Analytics Professor at Humboldt University Berlin, Germany Science advisor to Small Island Developing States
- 25. Implications for the Paris Agreement Long-Term Temperature Goal • The Paris Agreement refers to long-term, globally averaged temperature change, excluding natural variability (e.g., El Niño, volcanoes). Also clarified in the decision outcome of the 2nd Periodic Review • Requires long-term (20 yr+) or statistical methods to identify from the observational record (IPCC AR6 WG1: likely range of 2010- 2019: 0.8°C to 1.3°C) • It will only be possible to identify with confidence if and when we have reached 1.5°C in hindsight CONSTRAIN (2020)
- 26. What would a year above 1.5°C mean for how far we are away from the long-term goal • Ongoing analysis hints that 2023/2024 anomalies may be dominated by natural variability • It does not imply that we are at 1.5°C already Jackson et al. (in preparation)
- 27. What needs to be done to keep 1.5°C within reach • IPCC provides clear guidance on required emission reductions to keep 1.5°C within reach (and limit warming to well below 2°C with an around 90% chance) as benchmarks for new rounds of NDCs • A very first step needs to be to peak global greenhouse gas emissions before 2025 IPCC (2023)
- 29. Party and stakeholder panel Cheryl Jeffers Head of St Kitts and Nevis delegation Professor Nana Ama Browne Klutse IPCC WGI Vice Chair, Head of Physics Department, University of Ghana, Researcher, African Institute of Mathematical Sciences Dr Anna Pirani Senior Research Associate, Euro- Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC), Member of the Italian delegation, IPCC Focal Point for Italy Dr Jolene Cook Head of International Climate Science, UK Dept. for Energy Security and Net Zero, UK IPCC Focal Point; member of UK delegation
- 30. Audience Q&A