Project Management Diagnostics for Time Management
- 1. DIAGNOSTICS FOR TIME MANAGEMENT TO C R A S H O R N OT TO C R A S H ? TA K E T H E G U E S S W O R K O U T O F Y O U R D E A D L I N E .
- 2. PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT KNOWLEDGE AREA • AGENDA: – COST TIME TRADE OFFS OF CRASHING – PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING A PROJECT BASED ON PERT ANALYSYS • PMBOK GUIDE 6TH EDITION • DEVELOP SCHEDULE: TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES – – SCHEDULE COMPRESSION – CRASHING (6.5.2.6) – DATA ANALYSIS – SIMULATION MODELS (6.5.2.4) • PLANNING PROCESS GROUP
- 3. WHO WE ARE • ROBERT DAVIES – LEAD ELECTRONICS ENGINEER, PRIDE MOBILITY PRODUCTS • MS ENGINEERING OPERATIONS AND STRATEGY 2018’ • OVER A DECADE OF EXPERIENCE IN ELECTRICAL/ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS DESIGN • 4 US PATENTS (PENDING) & 1 EU PATENT (PENDING) • APRIL DAVIES – PROJECT COORDINATOR, TMG HEALTH / COGNIZANT • MS PROJECT MANAGEMENT (HEALTHCARE ADMINISTRATION) 2018 • MA COMMUNICATION ARTS – MARYWOOD UNIVERSITY • DECADE OF EXPERIECNE IN EXECUTIVE LEVEL SUPPORT AND SPECIAL PROJECTS • CAPM JUNE 2017
- 5. PROJECT CRASHING • The PMBOK defines project crashing as a technique used to shorten the schedule duration for the least cost by adding resources. • Crashing is one method of schedule compression used to accelerate the schedule duration to meet constraints, key dates and other schedule objectives without reducing the project scope.
- 6. COST TIME TRADE OFFS OF CRASHING • When managing a project it’s not uncommon for a project manager to be faced with these scenarios. –A project is falling behind schedule. And/or –The scheduled completion date of a project is moved forward. –In either scenario, we need to determine how to speed up the activities that occur within the project’s pipeline.
- 7. DETERMINING ACTIVITIES TO CRASH • The concern lies in the question of: – Which activities should be shortened? – How many activities should be shortened? • The project manager needs to review the critical activities and determine which would have the least impact to the cost. • Costs need to be compared, but how? • Assumptions: – Manager is working to ensure that the cost of the crash is permissible. – The shortened activity time will allow us to meet the due date. – Total cost of crashing is as small as possible.
- 8. PROJECT COSTS • Project direct costs to the project that consist of labor, materials, equipment and contractor expenses. • Direct cost are assigned to each of the project activities. • Under a normal assumption, the direct costs represent normal delivery of project activities. • Changes to the normal delivery of of these activities would constitute an increase to the project’s direct costs. • The sum of all project costs is equivalent to the sum of all activities and the total direct cost of the project. • Not all costs are the same for every activity, therefore it could be difficult to determine which activity to shorten.
- 9. COST TIME TRADE OFF Crash Point Cost Activity 1 Activity 2 Crash Point Normal
- 10. HOW TO CRASH A PROJECT 1) Compute the crash cost per time period. 2) Find the critical path of the project’s network. 3) Find the activities on the critical path that can be crashed and have the smallest crash cost. 4) Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be reached.
- 11. THE DILEMMA
- 12. T H E D E L I M M A Julie Anne’s boss tells her that she must complete her project at an earlier than anticipated due date. He is willing to pay any price to have the project come in sooner then planned. Julie Anne needs to determine which activities to crash, by how much, and how to meet his 13 week deadline which was shortened from 15 weeks. She would like to speed up her project by 2 weeks at the least minimal
- 13. STEP 1 Compute the crash cost per time period. Crash Cost per Period = Crash Cost – Normal Cost Normal Time – Crash Time
- 14. CALCULATING CRASH COST Crash Cost = Crash Cost – Normal Cost Normal Time – Crash Time Activity Normal Time Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Cost Cost per time period A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 D 4 3 48,000 49,000 1,000 E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000
- 16. STEP 2 Find the Critical Path S 0 F 3 G 5 E 4 B 3 D 4 C 2 A 2 H 2 Activity Duration
- 17. STEP 2 Find the Critical Path S 0 F 3 G 5 E 4 B 3 D 4 C 2 A 2 H 2 Activity Duration
- 18. STEP 3 • Find the critical path activities with smallest crash cost. Activity Normal Time Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Cost Cost per time period Critical Path A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Yes B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes D 4 3 48,000 49,000 1,000 No E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Yes H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes
- 19. STEP 4 Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be reached. S 0 F 3 G 5 E 4 B 3 D 4 C 2 A 2 H 2 Activity Duration 15 weeks Act T $ A 1 750 C 1 1,000 E 2 1,000 G 2 1,500 H 1 3,000
- 20. STEP 4 Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be reached. S 0 F 3 G 5 E 4 B 3 D 4 C 2 A 2 H 2 Activity Duration 15 weeks Act T $ A 1 750 C 1 1,000 E 2 1,000 G 2 1,500 H 1 3,000
- 21. STEP 4 Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be reached. S 0 F 3 G 5 E 4 B 3 D 4 C 2 A 1 H 2 Activity Duration 14 weeks Total: $750 Act T $ A 1 750 C 1 1,000 E 2 1,000 G 2 1,500 H 1 3,000
- 22. STEP 4 Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be reached. S 0 F 3 G 5 E 4 B 3 D 4 C 2 A 1 H 2 Activity Duration 13 weeks Act T $ A 1 750 C 1 1,000 E 2 1,000 G 2 1,500 H 1 3,000 Total: $2,750
- 23. STEP 4 Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be reached. S 0 F 3 G 5 E 4 B 3 D 4 C 2 A 2 H 2 Activity Duration 15 weeks Act T $ A 1 750 C 1 1,000 E 2 1,000 G 2 1,500 H 1 3,000 Total: $1,500
- 24. STEP 4 Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be reached. S 0 F 3 G 2 E 4 B 3 D 4 C 2 A 2 H 2 Activity Duration 12 weeks Act T $ A 1 750 C 1 1,000 E 2 1,000 G 2 1,500 H 1 3,000
- 25. SUCCESSFUL CRASH REMINDERS • Ensure that the cost to crash is as small as possible. • Update your project with new activity times and budget with new cost considerations. Crashing only works for critical path activities. • Crashing can increase risk. Reevaluate risk as needed. • Ensure your resources are available to complete the crash. • Receive the proper prior authorization to make the change (CR) • Remember to be considerate of money. Consider the approach of take only what is needed. • Remember Responsible Crashing: Always Weigh Impact to Quality – 4 Hour House – What is the cost of quality. – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDB1O5cadQw
- 26. PERT ANALYSIS
- 27. WHAT IS PERT? • The program (or project) evaluation and review technique, commonly abbreviated PERT, is a statistical tool, used in project management…
- 28. PERT HISTORY? • Initially PERT stood for Program Evaluation Research Task • Started by the US NAVY 1950’s – as part of a (CPM) analysis Critical Path Method. • Design to simplify and plan complex projects i.e. building of a nuclear submarines.
- 29. WHAT DOES PERT DO? • PERT - in its simplest form is a tool for estimating the probability of completing a task (program or project) in a given time constraint. • “What is the confidence level of completing phase 2 by Oct 15th ?” said the VP
- 30. EXAMPLE OF PERT
- 31. PERT STEP 1. • Identify Critical Path Tasks • The longest possible continuous pathway taken from the initial event to the terminal event. It determines the total calendar time required for the project; and, therefore, any time delays along the critical path will delay the reaching of the terminal event by at least the same amount.
- 32. PERT STEP 2. • Optimistic : The minimum possible time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything proceeds better than is normally expected.
- 33. PERT STEP 3. • Likely : The best estimate of the time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything proceeds as normal.
- 34. PERT STEP 4. • Pessimistic : The maximum possible time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything goes wrong (but excluding major catastrophes).
- 35. PERT STEP 5. • Calculate Expected Duration using given inputs
- 36. PERT STEP 6. • Calculate Standard Deviation / Variance
- 37. PERT STEP 6.2.0 • Calculate Standard Deviation / Variance
- 38. PERT STEP 7. • Given a due date we can calculate the probability of meeting a particular due date
- 39. PERT STEP 8. • Now we look up Z in the Normal Distribution Table
- 40. PERT STEP 9. • That’s it! Report the probability of completion in percentage i.e. 0.99 equates to 99% probability.
Editor's Notes
- #2: Northeast Branch: September 2017 Meeting When: September 28, 2017 Where: Marzoni's Brick Oven & Brewing - 26 Montage Mountain Rd, Moosic, PA 18507 Speaker: Robert & April Davies Topic: Diagnostic Techniques for Project Time Management Brief Description: To crash or not to crash? Take the guesswork out of your deadline. Find out how to calculate the probability of hitting target dates at September's PMI Keystone Chapter’s Meeting. Robert and April Davies will be presenting on diagnostic techniques for project time management. In their presentation, they will review PERT analysis, probability of completion, and cost time trade-offs. Talent Triangle Category(s): Technical Project Management (1 PDU)
- #3: References: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679 In this presentation will be touching on to diagnostic techniques for project time management. We will review probability of completion using PERT, and cost time trade-offs.
- #7: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #8: The shortest possible time that a project activity can be completed which is called crash time. Crash time must be realistic. The cost to crash is called the crash cost. Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #9: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #10: We are making the assumptions are that the cost time relationship is linear. Normal cost assumes the must efficient methods to complete the activity. Crash Time represents the least amount of time needed to complete an activity - which is the greatest time reduction possible under realistic conditions Slope assumes the cost per unit of time. Less steep slopes means that it costs less to shorten the duration of that activity. All accelerations must occur within normal and crash times. It’s also normal to assume that crash cost will be higher than normal. In some cases we find that adding more resources will help shorten the time it takes to complete an activity but at a higher cost. Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #11: Compute the crash cost per time period. EX: Grocery Store: Pound of bananas. We need to consider the cost of each banana, not the complete bunch. We will look at calculating the cost of the activity per time segment. Find the critical path of the project’s network. Using the same approach as defined in the PMBOK. We will look at the critical path to determine which activities can have an impact on our schedule Find the activities on the critical path that have the smallest crash cost. Determine which activities are the best candidates for crashing. Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #13: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #14: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #15: Julie Anne needs to crash at the least minimal cost. Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #16: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #17: Find the critical path of the activities S – A – C – E – G – H Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #18: Option would be to use MS Project to determine the activities. 0 slack activities Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #19: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #20: Option would be to use MS Project to determine the activities. 0 slack activities Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #21: Option would be to use MS Project to determine the activities. 0 slack activities Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #22: Option would be to use MS Project to determine the activities. 0 slack activities Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #23: Option would be to use MS Project to determine the activities. 0 slack activities D not originally on critical path but changed. Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #24: Option would be to use MS Project to determine the activities. 0 slack activities Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #25: Option would be to use MS Project to determine the activities. 0 slack activities Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #26: Compute the crash cost per time period. EX: Grocery Store: Pound of bananas. We need to consider the cost of each banana, not the complete bunch. We will look at calculating the cost of the activity per time segment. Find the critical path of the project’s network. Using the same approach as defined in the PMBOK. We will look at the critical path to determine which activities can have an impact on our schedule Find the activities on the critical path that have the smallest crash cost. Determine which activities are the best candidates for crashing. Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.
- #31: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #32: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #33: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #34: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #35: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #36: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #37: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #38: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #39: Heizer, J., & Render, B. (2014). Operations Management: Sustainability and supply chain management (11th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. Gray, C. & Larson, E. (2011). Project Management: The Managerial Process. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin. Project Management Institute (2013). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. ISBN-13: 9781935589679
- #42: I hope you enjoyed our presentation on cost time trade offs and the probability of completion.