Envisioning the Future
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Dr. Larry Smarr's invited talk at the UCSD Connect 2005 highlights the evolution of technologies from elite scientific applications to mass-market consumer products, emphasizing the accelerated pace of advancements such as bandwidth improvements and supercomputing power. The talk discusses the Calit2 initiative, which aims to foster interdisciplinary research and collaboration to address future internet needs and facilitate high-resolution data visualization. It also touches on the convergence of engineering, biotechnology, and IT, anticipating significant changes in information technology and healthcare through wireless and embedded computing advancements.
Envisioning the Future
- 1. “ Envisioning the Future” Invited Talk UCSD CONNECT 2005 Life Sciences & High-Tech Financial Forum San Diego, CA April 14, 2005 Dr. Larry Smarr Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Harry E. Gruber Professor, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
- 2. From Elite Science to the Mass Market Four Examples I Helped “Mid-Wife”: Scientific Visualization to Movie/Game Special Effects CERN Preprints to WWW Supercomputers to GigaHertz PCs NSFnet to the Commercial Internet Technologies Diffuse Into Society Following an S-Curve Automobile Adoption Source: Harry Dent, The Great Boom Ahead Calit2 Works Here {
- 3. From Scientific Visualization of Supercomputing Science to Movie Special Effects http://access.ncsa.uiuc.edu/ http://movies.warnerbros.com/twister www.jurassicpark.com www.cinemenium.com/perfectstorm/ NCSA 1987 1993 1996 2000 Stefen Fangmeier Computer Graphics From NCSA to ILM
- 4. Science Infrastructure Experiments Have Led to the Modern Web World 1990 100 Commercial Licensees NCSA Programmers Open Source Licensing
- 5. Fifteen Years from Bleeding Edge Research to Mass Consumer Market 1990 Leading Edge University Research Center-NCSA Supercomputer GigaFLOPS Cray Y-MP ($15M) Megabit/s NSFnet Backbone 2005 Mass Consumer Market PCs are Multi-Gigahertz ($1.5k) Megabit/s Home DSL or Cable Modem “ The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed” William Gibson, Author of Neuromancer
- 6. Peering Into The Future 1000x Goals for 2015 Home Bandwidth Today: Mbit/s Cable/ DSL 2015: Gbit/s to the Home Information Appliances Today: GHz PCs 2015: Terahertz Ubiquitous Embedded Computing Personal Storage Today: 100 GBytes PC or Tivo 2015: 100 TBytes Personal Storage Available Everywhere Visual Interface Today: 1M Pixels PC Screen or HD TV 2015: GigaPixel Wallpaper 15 Years ~ 1000x with Moore’s Law
- 7. Calit2 -- Research and Living Laboratories on the Future of the Internet www.calit2.net UC San Diego & UC Irvine Faculty and Staff Working in Multidisciplinary Teams With Students, Industry, and the Community
- 8. Performing Arts Digital Culture Federal Government Industry Networks Robotics Collaboration www.calit2.net
- 9. Two New Calit2 Buildings Will Provide Persistent Collaboration Environment Will Create New Laboratory Facilities International Conferences and Testbeds Over 1000 Researchers in Two Buildings 150 Optical Fibers into UCSD Building Bioengineering UC San Diego UC Irvine California Provided $100M for Buildings Industry Partners $85M, Federal Grants $250M
- 10. Optical WAN Research Bandwidth Has Grown Much Faster than Supercomputer Speed! Megabit/s Gigabit/s Terabit/s Source: Timothy Lance, President, NYSERNet 1 GFLOP Cray2 60 TFLOP Altix Bandwidth of NYSERNet Research Network Backbones T1 32 10Gb “ Lambdas” Full NLR
- 11. The OptIPuter Project – Creating an Optical “Web” for Gigabyte Data Objects NSF Large Information Technology Research Proposal Calit2 (UCSD, UCI) and UIC Lead Campuses—Larry Smarr PI Partnering Campuses: USC, SDSU, NW, TA&M, UvA, SARA, NASA Industrial Partners IBM, Sun, Telcordia, Chiaro, Calient, Glimmerglass, Lucent $13.5 Million Over Five Years Linking Global Scale Science Projects to User’s Linux Clusters NIH Biomedical Informatics NSF EarthScope and ORION http://ncmir.ucsd.edu/gallery.html siovizcenter.ucsd.edu/library/gallery/shoot1/index.shtml Research Network
- 12. Realizing the Dream: High Resolution Portals to Global Science Data 30 MPixel SunScreen Display Driven by a 20-node Sun Opteron Visualization Cluster Source: Mark Ellisman, David Lee, Jason Leigh 150 Mpixel Microscopy Montage
- 13. In Academia, the OptIPuter Project is Prototyping the PC of 2010 Terabits to the Desktop… 100 Megapixels Display 55-LCD Panels 1/3 Terabit/sec I/O 30 x 10GE Interfaces Linked to OptIPuter 1/4 TeraFLOP Driven by 30 Node Cluster of 64 -Bit Dual Opterons 1/8 TB RAM 60 TB Disk Source: Jason Leigh, Tom DeFanti, EVL@UIC OptIPuter Co-PIs NSF LambdaVision MRI@UIC
- 14. NLR Will Provide an Experimental Network Infrastructure for U.S. Scientists & Researchers First Light September 2004 “ National LambdaRail” Partnership Serves Very High-End Experimental and Research Applications 4 x 10Gb Wavelengths (“Lambdas”) Initially Capable of 40 x 10Gb wavelengths at Buildout Links Two Dozen State and Regional Optical Networks DOE and NASA Using NLR
- 15. Lambdas Provide Global Access to Large Data Objects and Remote Instruments Global Lambda Integrated Facility (GLIF) Integrated Research Lambda Network Visualization courtesy of Bob Patterson, NCSA www.glif.is Created in Reykjavik, Iceland Aug 2003
- 16. Multiple HD Streams Over Lambdas Will Radically Transform Campus Collaboration U. Washington JGN II Workshop Osaka, Japan Jan 2005 Prof. Osaka Prof. Aoyama Prof. Smarr Source: U Washington Research Channel Telepresence Using Uncompressed 1.5 Gbps HDTV Streaming Over IP on Fiber Optics
- 17. Goal—Upgrade Access Grid to HD Streams Over IP on Dedicated Lambdas Access Grid Talk with 35 Locations on 5 Continents— SC Global Keynote Supercomputing 04
- 18. Calit2 CineGrid Auditorium Networked Digital Cinema and Global Collaboratorium 200-Seat Auditorium Digital Cinema or Scientific Visualization Bi-directional Tele-presence Conferencing Robotic Camera System for Live Events THX 10.2 Sound Multi-Modal Projection Capabilities Multi-Fiber Hi-Speed Network Connectivity Source: Sheldon Brown, CRCA, UCSD We will Open in 2005 with a 2K Projector Plan to Add SHD (4K) Projector for Digital Cinema and Quad HDTV 4 x HD Resolution Mono and Stereo Viewing
- 19. Calit2 Collaboration Rooms Testbed UCI to UCSD In 2005 Calit2 will Link Its Two Buildings via CENIC-XD Dedicated Fiber over 75 Miles Using OptIPuter Architecture to Create a Distributed Collaboration Laboratory UC Irvine UC San Diego UCI VizClass UCSD NCMIR Source: Falko Kuester, UCI & Mark Ellisman, UCSD
- 20. Multi-Gigapixel Images (500 x HD Resolution!) are Available from Film Scanners Today The Gigapxl Project http://gigapxl.org Balboa Park, San Diego
- 21. Large Image with Enormous Detail Require Interactive LambdaVision Systems One Square Inch Shot From 100 Yards The OptIPuter Project is Pursuing Obtaining some of these Images for LambdaVision 100M Pixel Walls http://gigapxl.org
- 22. High Resolution Aerial Photography Generates Images With 10,000 Times More Data than Landsat7 Shane DeGross, Telesis USGS Landsat7 Imagery 100 Foot Resolution Draped on elevation data New USGS Aerial Imagery At 1-Foot Resolution ~10x10 square miles of 150 US Cities 2.5 Billion Pixel Images Per City!
- 23. A High Definition Access Grid as Imagined In 2007 In A HiPerCollab Source: Jason Leigh, EVL, UIC Augmented Reality SuperHD StreamingVideo 100-Megapixel Tiled Display ENDfusion Project
- 24. September 26-30, 2005 University of California, San Diego California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology The Networking Double Header of the Century Will Be Driven by LambdaGrid Applications i Grid 2 oo 5 T H E G L O B A L L A M B D A I N T E G R A T E D F A C I L I T Y Maxine Brown, Tom DeFanti, Co-Organizers www.startap.net/igrid2005/ http://sc05.supercomp.org
- 25. Proposed Experiment for iGrid 2005 – Remote Interactive HD Imaging of Deep Sea Vent Source John Delaney & Deborah Kelley, UWash To Starlight, TRECC, and ACCESS
- 26. Wireless Access--Anywhere, Anytime Broadband Speeds “ Always Best Connected” Billions of New Wireless Internet End Points Information Appliances Sensors and Actuators Embedded Processors Emergence of a Distributed Planetary Computer Parallel Lambda Optical Backbone Storage of Data Everywhere Scalable Distributed Computing Power Brilliance is Distributed Throughout the Grid The Internet Is Extending Throughout the Physical World A Mobile Internet Powered by a Planetary Computer “ The all optical fibersphere in the center finds its complement in the wireless ethersphere on the edge of the network.” --George Gilder
- 27. Gigabit/s Wireless is Already a Product! Distance/Topology/Segments CBD/Dense Urban Urban Industrial Suburban Residential Suburban Rural 10 Gbps 1 Gbps 100 Mbps 10 Mbps Short <1km Short/Medium 1-2km Medium 2-5 km Medium/Long >5 km Long >10 km 802.11 a/b/g Point to Point Microwave $2B-$3B/Year Fiber – Multi-billion $ Market Demand 802.16 “Wi-Max” $2-$4B in 5 years E-Band mmW radio fills the gap between current broadband access technologies and enables Next Generation networking E-Band Market Opportunity $1B+ FSO & 60GHz Radio ~$300M
- 28. The Calit2@UCSD Building Was Designed for the Wireless Age Nine Antenna Pedestals on Roof Can Support Ericsson’s Latest Compact Base Station Or Antennas for a Macro Base Station Rooftop Research Shack Vector Network Analyzers Spectrum Analyzers CDMA Air Interface Software Test Tools Dedicated Fiber Optic and RF connections Between Labs Network of Interconnected Labs Antenna Garden, e.g. Roof Top Radio Base Station Lab, e.g. 6 th floor Radio Network Controller Lab, e.g. 5 th floor Always Best Connected & Located—Throughout Building GPS Re-Radiators in Labs Distribution of Timing Signals Building Materials Were Chosen To Maximize Radio Penetration
- 29. Network Endpoints Are Becoming Complex Systems-on-Chip Two Trends: More Use of Chips with “Embedded Intelligence” Networking of These Chips Source: Rajesh Gupta, UCSD Director, Center for Microsystems Engineering
- 30. Novel Materials and Devices are Needed in Every Part of the New Internet Source: Materials and Devices Team, UCSD Clean Rooms for NanoScience and BioMEMS in the two Calit2 Buildings
- 31. UC Irvine Integrated Nanoscale Research Facility – Materials and Devices Collaboration with Industry Collaborations with Industry Joint Research With Faculty Shared Facility Available For Industry Use Working with UCI OTA to Facilitate Tech Transfer Industry and VC Interest in Technologies Developed at INRF Research Funding Equipment Funding $1M $2M $3M $4M $5M ’ 99-’00 ’ 00-’01 ’ 01-’02 ’ 02-’03 Federal agencies Industry partners State funding Private foundations
- 32. The Perfect Storm: Convergence of Engineering with Bio, Physics, & IT Nanobio info technology 5 nanometers Human Rhinovirus IBM Quantum Corral Iron Atoms on Copper VCSELaser 2 mm Nanogen MicroArray 500x Magnification MEMS 400x Magnification NANO
- 33. As Our Bodies Move On-Line Bioengineering and Bioinformatics Merge New Sensors—Israeli Video Pill Battery, Light, & Video Camera Images Stored on Hip Device Next Step—Putting You On-Line! Key Metabolic and Physical Variables Wireless Internet Transmission Model -- Dozens of 25 Processors and 60 Sensors / Actuators Inside of our Cars Post-Genomic Individualized Medicine Combine Your Genetic Code & Imaging, with Your Body’s Data Flow Use Powerful AI Data Mining Techniques www.givenimaging.com
- 34. Wireless Internet Information System for Medical Response in Disasters (WIISARD) First Responder Wireless Location Aware Systems For Nuclear, Chemical & Radiologic Attacks Total NIH Award: $4.1 Million. Duration 10/03 To 10/06 WIISARD Drill 3/16/04 Leslie Lenert, PI, UCSD SOM
- 35. Calit2 RESCUE Grant Gaslamp Quarter Infrastructure RMS, Jail, Mugshot, GIS 2 – 5 Mbps RDLAP, CDPD, EDGE, DataRadio, CDMA, IPMobileNet, M/A Com 19.2 – 100 Kbps CAD External Data Internet Hot Spots verses Hot Zones Message Switch Wi-Fi Hot-Spots www.itr-rescue.org www.responsphere.org Wi-Fi Metro-Zones
- 36. Millions of Video Cameras Are Attaching to the Net London Underground Initially 25,000 Video Cameras Expansion to 250,000 Possible British Transport Police Switch to Any Camera in 1 Sec. Source: Telindus British CCTV System Currently 2.5 Million CCTV Cameras Installed (NY Times) Average London Citizen is Seen by 300 Cameras Per Day Face Recognition Software Added in High Crime Areas Up to 6 Million Surveillance Cameras Across the USA in 5-7 Years Privacy International Prediction “ Total Situational Awareness”
- 37. However, Broad Debate Is Needed to Avoid Citizen Revolt Against Privacy Violations
Editor's Notes
- #36: Tropos wireless network access points – create hot “zones” Motorola Canopy backhaul Support for security cameras & handheld devices Research for mesh technologies, load balancing, interoperability