Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference
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The document presents insights from the 5th annual leadership keynote on the future of open source software (OSS), emphasizing industry impact and investment directions. Key findings include a shift towards OSS adoption due to lower costs, freedom from vendor lock-in, and innovation, with predictions for significant disruption in mobile and database sectors over the next five years. Despite current barriers like lack of technical skills and vendor support, the document suggests a growing acceptance of OSS in both public and private sectors.
Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference
- 1. Future of Open Source 5TH Annual Leadership Keynote Michael Skok
- 2. The Panel Jim Whitehurst Tom Erickson Michael Skok Mike Olson Adrian Kunzle President & CEO CEO General Partner CEO Managing Director @entrecapitalist 2
- 3. Welcome! Industry Investment Impact Direction 3
- 4. Collaborators 4
- 5. Who we heard from. (you!) 5
- 6. Survey Response 455 6
- 7. Survey Respondents Vendors Non-Vendors 4060 % 7
- 9. Agenda Industry Impact Investment Direction 9
- 10. Is a Turbulent Economy Good or Bad for Open Source? 100% 2009 2010 2011 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Good Bad 10
- 11. What Makes OSS Attractive? 2008 2009 2010 2011 Lower costs Lower costs Lower costs Freedom from VENDOR lock-in Freedom from Superior security Freedom from VENDOR Lock-in VENDOR lock-in Lower costs Access to code Freedom from Rapid pace of libraries VENDOR lock-in innovation Flexibility 11
- 12. Tipping Point – What’s Driving Adoption? Other Mobility Vendor 3% 7% Lock-in 18% Quality 13% Economic 15% Downturn 14% Private Sector Adoption 15% 15% Public Sector OSS Adoption Experience 12
- 13. Top 5 Barriers to OSS Selection Lack of internal technical skills 126 responses Unfamiliarity with open source solutions 122 Lack of formal commercial vendor support 98 Legal concerns about licensing 84 Does not conform to internal policies 65 13
- 14. Agenda Industry Investment Impact Direction 14
- 15. What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years? Mobile MOST Database OS
- 16. What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years? MOST = Mobile New Mobile OSS Projects 4,000 3,000 3,800 new mobile projects in 2010 2,000 94% speficied, target 1,000 Apple iOS or Android 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Thanks to our collaborator Black Duck
- 17. What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years? “Code can be Office commoditized more Productivity easily than trained people, ingrained ERP/CRM LEAST business processes Business and mission critical Intelligence data” Michael Skok 17
- 18. How is The Use of OSS Components Impacting the Manageability of Applications? More Less None 18
- 19. Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today Other Custom 8% Development Ad-hoc 26% Support 17% Value-add 15% Subscriptions 20% Support 14% Subscriptions “Closed-source” Licensing 19
- 20. Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today, and 2 years out… Other Advertisements Custom 8% Development Ad-hoc 4% 26% Support 17% 9% 17% 18% +2 Years 25% Value-add 15% 20% Subscriptions 7% 20% Support 14% Subscriptions “Closed-source” Licensing 20
- 21. What Licensing Strategy do you use? (vendor only question) 45 Responses 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 For definitions refer to 21
- 22. Impact on OSS Vendors? Mobile Devices SaaS App Stores Public Cloud Private Cloud 22
- 23. Impact on OSS Vendors – Cloudy… 200 500 160 400 120 300 80 200 40 100 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 New OSS Cloud Projects Cumulative Projects *Projects specifically referencing cloud. Many OSS projects are suitable for cloud but don’t specify it. Thanks to our Collaborator Black Duck
- 24. Cool OSS Projects mentioned… 24
- 25. Up & Coming OSS Companies 2009 2010 2011 25
- 26. OSS Investment – by the numbers $466M $7.0M $112M 24% 22% 72% Dollars Deals Ave Deal Seed, Invested Completed Size Series A 2009 $375M 73 $5.7M $65M 2.7% 71 26
- 27. OSS Deployed in Your Organization 96 94 89 85 75 Responses 67 62 42 0%- 25% 25% 75%-100% -50% 50%-75% In 5 Today Years Percentage of OSS is Deployed 27
- 28. IN 5 YEARS: What % of Software Purchases Will be OSS? 50% or more on OSS 2016 2015 2014 2013 28
- 29. Wrap-up: The Open Source Path 29
- 30. OSS in the Mainstream… Growing Public Sector Investments Private Sector Adoption Adoption Avoid Vendor Lower Lock-In Costs 30
- 31. … But Not Yet Mature! Internal technical skills Unfamiliarity Vendor support 31
- 32. Watch for Path Traps Innovation vs. bloat Maintenance costs DevOps 32
- 33. Opportunities… OSS can: • Innovate • Lead 33
- 34. A big thank you from North Bridge to… Jim Whitehurst Tom Erickson Michael Skok Mike Olson Adrian Kunzle President & CEO CEO General Partner CEO Managing Director 34
- 35. FutureOpensource.net 35