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Chapter 1
Chapter 1
Introduction
Introduction

 Body of Knowledge
Body of Knowledge

 Problem Solving and Decision Making
Problem Solving and Decision Making

 Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making

 Quantitative Analysis
Quantitative Analysis

 Models of Cost, Revenue, and Profit
Models of Cost, Revenue, and Profit
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 Management Science Techniques
Management Science Techniques
Body of Knowledge
Body of Knowledge

 The
The body
body of
of knowledge
knowledge involving
involving quantitative
quantitative
approaches
approaches to
to decision
decision making
making is
is referred
referred to
to as
as
•
•Management
Management Science
Science
•
•Operations
Operations Research
Research
•
•Decision
Decision Science
Science

 It
It had
had its
its early
early roots
roots in
in World
World War
War II
II and
and is
is flourishing
flourishing
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 It
It had
had its
its early
early roots
roots in
in World
World War
War II
II and
and is
is flourishing
flourishing
in
in business
business and
and industry
industry due,
due, in
in part,
part, to
to:
:
•
•numerous
numerous methodological
methodological developments
developments (e
(e.
.g
g.
.
simplex
simplex method
method for
for solving
solving linear
linear programming
programming
problems)
problems)
•
•a
a virtual
virtual explosion
explosion in
in computing
computing power
power
7
7 Steps
Steps of
of Problem
Problem Solving
Solving
(First
(First 5
5 steps
steps are
are the
the process
process of
of decision
decision making
making)
)
1
1.
. Identify
Identify and
and define
define the
the problem
problem.
.
2
2.
. Determine
Determine the
the set
set of
of alternative
alternative solutions
solutions.
.
3
3.
. Determine
Determine the
the criteria
criteria for
for evaluating
evaluating alternatives
alternatives.
.
4
4.
. Evaluate
Evaluate the
the alternatives
alternatives.
.
Problem Solving and Decision Making
Problem Solving and Decision Making
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4
4.
. Evaluate
Evaluate the
the alternatives
alternatives.
.
5
5.
. Choose
Choose an
an alternative
alternative (make
(make a
a decision)
decision).
.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------
6
6.
. Implement
Implement the
the selected
selected alternative
alternative.
.
7
7.
. Evaluate
Evaluate the
the results
results.
.
Nature of OR
Nature of OR

 OR
OR is
is being
being regarded
regarded as
as the
the application
application of
of scientific
scientific
methods
methods to
to decision
decision making
making.
.

 OR
OR attempts
attempts to
to provide
provide a
a systematic
systematic and
and rational
rational
approach
approach to
to the
the fundamental
fundamental problems
problems involved
involved in
in
the
the control
control of
of systems
systems by
by making
making decisions
decisions which,
which, in
in a
a
sense,
sense, achieve
achieve the
the best
best results
results considering
considering all
all the
the
information
information that
that can
can be
be profitably
profitably used
used.
.
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information
information that
that can
can be
be profitably
profitably used
used.
.

 As
As per
per Churchman,
Churchman, OR
OR can
can be
be defined
defined as
as the
the
application
application of
of scientific
scientific methods,
methods, techniques
techniques and
and tools
tools to
to
problems
problems involving
involving the
the operations
operations of
of systems
systems so
so as
as to
to
provide
provide those
those in
in control
control of
of operations
operations with
with optimum
optimum
solutions
solutions to
to the
the problems
problems.
.
Significant
Significant features
features of
of OR
OR are
are as
as follows
follows:
:
•
• Decision
Decision Making
Making
•
• It
It helps
helps in
in decision
decision making
making.
. Steps
Steps in
in decision
decision
making
making are
are:
:
– Define the problem
– Establish the criterion (maximization of profit, utility and
minimization of cost etc)
– Select the alternative courses of action.
– Determine the model to be used and the values of the
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– Determine the model to be used and the values of the
parameters of the process
– Evaluate the alternative and choose the one that is optimal.
• Scientific Approach
• OR employs scientific methods for the purpose of
solving problems.
• It is formalized process of reasoning.
• Objective
• OR attempts to locate the best or optimal
solution to the problem under consideration.
• Inter-disciplinary team approach
• OR is inter-disciplinary in nature  requires a
team approach to the problem.
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• Digital Computer
– Use of digital computer has become an integral part of the
operations research approach to decision making.
– Computers are required due to complexity of the model,
volume of data required or the computations to be made.
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
Define
Define
the
the
Problem
Problem
Identify
Identify
the
the
Alternatives
Alternatives
Determine
Determine
the
the
Criteria
Criteria
Identify
Identify
the
the
Alternatives
Alternatives
Choose
Choose
an
an
Alternative
Alternative
Structuring the Problem
Structuring the Problem Analyzing the Problem
Analyzing the Problem

 Decision
Decision-
-Making Process
Making Process
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Analysis
Analysis Phase
Phase of
of Decision
Decision-
-Making
Making Process
Process

 Qualitative
Qualitative Analysis
Analysis
•
• based
based largely
largely on
on the
the manager’s
manager’s judgment
judgment and
and
experience
experience
•
• includes
includes the
the manager’s
manager’s intuitive
intuitive “feel”
“feel” for
for the
the
problem
problem
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
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problem
problem
•
• is
is more
more of
of an
an art
art than
than a
a science
science
Analysis
Analysis Phase
Phase of
of Decision
Decision-
-Making
Making Process
Process

 Quantitative
Quantitative Analysis
Analysis
•
• analyst
analyst will
will concentrate
concentrate on
on the
the quantitative
quantitative facts
facts
or
or data
data associated
associated with
with the
the problem
problem
•
• analyst
analyst will
will develop
develop mathematical
mathematical expressions
expressions
that
that describe
describe the
the objectives,
objectives, constraints,
constraints, and
and
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
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that
that describe
describe the
the objectives,
objectives, constraints,
constraints, and
and
other
other relationships
relationships that
that exist
exist in
in the
the problem
problem
•
• analyst
analyst will
will use
use one
one or
or more
more quantitative
quantitative
methods
methods to
to make
make a
a recommendation
recommendation
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making
Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making

 Potential
Potential Reasons
Reasons for
for a
a Quantitative
Quantitative Analysis
Analysis
Approach
Approach to
to Decision
Decision Making
Making
•
•The
The problem
problem is
is complex
complex.
.
•
•The
The problem
problem is
is very
very important
important.
.
•
•The
The problem
problem is
is new
new.
.
•
•The
The problem
problem is
is repetitive
repetitive.
.
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•
•The
The problem
problem is
is repetitive
repetitive.
.
Quantitative Analysis
Quantitative Analysis

 Quantitative Analysis Process
Quantitative Analysis Process
•
•Model Development
Model Development
•
•Data Preparation
Data Preparation
•
•Model Solution
Model Solution
•
•Report Generation
Report Generation
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Model Development
Model Development

 Models
Models are
are representations
representations of
of real
real objects
objects or
or situations
situations

 Three
Three forms
forms of
of models
models are
are:
:
•
•Iconic
Iconic models
models -
- physical
physical replicas
replicas (scalar
(scalar
representations)
representations) of
of real
real objects
objects
•
•Analog
Analog models
models -
- physical
physical in
in form,
form, but
but do
do not
not
physically
physically resemble
resemble the
the object
object being
being modeled
modeled
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physically
physically resemble
resemble the
the object
object being
being modeled
modeled
•
•Mathematical
Mathematical models
models -
- represent
represent real
real world
world
problems
problems through
through a
a system
system of
of mathematical
mathematical
formulas
formulas and
and expressions
expressions based
based on
on key
key
assumptions,
assumptions, estimates,
estimates, or
or statistical
statistical analyses
analyses
Advantages of Models
Advantages of Models

 Generally,
Generally, experimenting
experimenting with
with models
models (compared
(compared to
to
experimenting
experimenting with
with the
the real
real situation)
situation):
:
•
•requires
requires less
less time
time
•
•is
is less
less expensive
expensive
•
•involves
involves less
less risk
risk

 The
The more
more closely
closely the
the model
model represents
represents the
the real
real
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 The
The more
more closely
closely the
the model
model represents
represents the
the real
real
situation,
situation, the
the accurate
accurate the
the conclusions
conclusions and
and predictions
predictions
will
will be
be.
.
Mathematical Models
Mathematical Models

 Objective
Objective Function
Function –
– a
a mathematical
mathematical expression
expression that
that
describes
describes the
the problem’s
problem’s objective,
objective, such
such as
as maximizing
maximizing
profit
profit or
or minimizing
minimizing cost
cost

 Constraints
Constraints –
– a
a set
set of
of restrictions
restrictions or
or limitations,
limitations, such
such as
as
production
production capacities
capacities

 Uncontrollable
Uncontrollable Inputs
Inputs –
– environmental
environmental factors
factors that
that are
are
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Uncontrollable
Uncontrollable Inputs
Inputs –
– environmental
environmental factors
factors that
that are
are
not
not under
under the
the control
control of
of the
the decision
decision maker
maker

 Decision
Decision Variables
Variables –
– controllable
controllable inputs
inputs;
; decision
decision
alternatives
alternatives specified
specified by
by the
the decision
decision maker,
maker, such
such as
as the
the
number
number of
of units
units of
of Product
Product X
X to
to produce
produce
Mathematical Models
Mathematical Models

 Deterministic
Deterministic Model
Model –
– if
if all
all uncontrollable
uncontrollable inputs
inputs to
to the
the
model
model are
are known
known and
and cannot
cannot vary
vary

 Stochastic
Stochastic (or
(or Probabilistic)
Probabilistic) Model
Model –
– if
if any
any uncontrollable
uncontrollable
inputs
inputs are
are uncertain
uncertain and
and subject
subject to
to variation
variation

 Stochastic
Stochastic models
models are
are often
often more
more difficult
difficult to
to analyze
analyze.
.
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Mathematical Models
Mathematical Models

 Cost/benefit
Cost/benefit considerations
considerations must
must be
be made
made in
in selecting
selecting
an
an appropriate
appropriate mathematical
mathematical model
model.
.

 Frequently
Frequently a
a less
less complicated
complicated (and
(and perhaps
perhaps less
less
precise)
precise) model
model is
is more
more appropriate
appropriate than
than a
a more
more
complex
complex and
and accurate
accurate one
one due
due to
to cost
cost and
and ease
ease of
of
solution
solution considerations
considerations.
.
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Transforming Model Inputs into Output
Transforming Model Inputs into Output
Uncontrollable Inputs
Uncontrollable Inputs
(Environmental Factors)
(Environmental Factors)
Controllable
Controllable
Output
Output
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Controllable
Controllable
Inputs
Inputs
(Decision
(Decision
Variables)
Variables)
Output
Output
(Projected
(Projected
Results)
Results)
Mathematical
Mathematical
Model
Model
Example:
Example: 2.1, Maximization case (NDV)
2.1, Maximization case (NDV)
A
A firm
firm is
is engaged
engaged in
in producing
producing two
two products,
products, A
A and
and B
B.
.
Each
Each unit
unit of
of product
product A
A requires
requires 2
2 Kg
Kg of
of raw
raw material
material and
and 4
4
labor
labor hours
hours for
for processing,
processing, whereas
whereas each
each unit
unit of
of product
product B
B
requires
requires 3
3 Kg
Kg of
of raw
raw material
material and
and 3
3 labor
labor hours
hours.
. Every
Every
week,
week, the
the firm
firm has
has an
an availability
availability of
of 60
60 Kg
Kg of
of r
raw
aw material
material
and
and 96
96 labor
labor hours
hours.
. One
One unit
unit of
of product
product A
A sold
sold yields
yields Rs
Rs.
. 40
40
and
and one
one unit
unit of
of product
product B
B sold
sold gives
gives Rs
Rs.
. 35
35 as
as profit
profit.
.
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and
and one
one unit
unit of
of product
product B
B sold
sold gives
gives Rs
Rs.
. 35
35 as
as profit
profit.
.
Formulate
Formulate this
this problem
problem of
of linear
linear programming
programming problem
problem to
to
determine
determine as
as to
to how
how many
many units
units of
of each
each of
of the
the products
products
should
should be
be produced
produced per
per week
week so
so that
that the
the firm
firm can
can earn
earn the
the
maximum
maximum profit
profit.
. Assume
Assume that
that there
there is
is no
no mktg
mktg.
. constraint
constraint
so
so that
that all
all that
that is
is produced
produced can
can be
be sold
sold.
.
Solution of Example 2.1
Solution of Example 2.1
•
•Define the objective function
Define the objective function
•
•Define constraints
Define constraints
•
•Non
Non-
-negativity constraints
negativity constraints
•
•Formulate LPP.
Formulate LPP.
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Example:
Example: Example 2.2, Minimization case
Example 2.2, Minimization case
(NDV)
(NDV)

 The
The agricultural
agricultural research
research institute
institute suggested
suggested to
to a
a
farmer
farmer to
to spread
spread out
out at
at least
least 4800
4800 kg
kg of
of a
a special
special
phosphate
phosphate fertilizer
fertilizer and
and not
not less
less than
than 7200
7200 kg
kg of
of a
a
special
special nitrogen
nitrogen fertilizer
fertilizer to
to raise
raise productivity
productivity of
of crops
crops
in
in his
his fields
fields.
. There
There are
are two
two sources
sources for
for obtaining
obtaining
these
these---
---mixtures
mixtures A
A 
 B
B.
. Both
Both of
of these
these are
are available
available in
in
bags
bags weighing
weighing 100
100 kg
kg each
each and
and they
they cost
cost Rs
Rs.
. 40
40 and
and
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bags
bags weighing
weighing 100
100 kg
kg each
each and
and they
they cost
cost Rs
Rs.
. 40
40 and
and
Rs
Rs.
. 24
24 resp
resp.
. Mixture
Mixture A
A contains
contains phosphate
phosphate and
and
nitrogen
nitrogen equivalent
equivalent of
of 20
20 kg
kg and
and 80
80 kg
kg resp
resp.
. while
while
mixture
mixture B
B contains
contains these
these ingredients
ingredients equivalent
equivalent of
of 50
50
kg
kg each
each.
.

 Write
Write this
this as
as a
a LPP
LPP to
to determine
determine how
how many
many bags
bags of
of
each
each type
type the
the farmer
farmer should
should buy
buy in
in order
order to
to obtain
obtain the
the
required
required fertilizer
fertilizer at
at minimum
minimum cost
cost.
.
Model Solution
Model Solution

 The
The analyst
analyst attempts
attempts to
to identify
identify the
the alternative
alternative (the
(the
set
set of
of decision
decision variable
variable values)
values) that
that provides
provides the
the
“best”
“best” output
output for
for the
the model
model.
.

 The
The “best”
“best” output
output is
is the
the optimal
optimal solution
solution.
.

 If
If the
the alternative
alternative does
does not
not satisfy
satisfy all
all of
of the
the model
model
constraints,
constraints, it
it is
is rejected
rejected as
as being
being infeasible
infeasible,
, regardless
regardless
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constraints,
constraints, it
it is
is rejected
rejected as
as being
being infeasible
infeasible,
, regardless
regardless
of
of the
the objective
objective function
function value
value.
.

 If
If the
the alternative
alternative satisfies
satisfies all
all of
of the
the model
model constraints,
constraints,
it
it is
is feasible
feasible and
and a
a candidate
candidate for
for the
the “best”
“best” solution
solution.
.
Model Solution
Model Solution

 One
One solution
solution approach
approach is
is trial
trial-
-and
and-
-error
error.
.
•
•Might
Might not
not provide
provide the
the best
best solution
solution
•
•Inefficient
Inefficient (numerous
(numerous calculations
calculations required)
required)

 Special
Special solution
solution procedures
procedures have
have been
been developed
developed for
for
specific
specific mathematical
mathematical models
models.
.
•
•Some
Some small
small models/problems
models/problems can
can be
be solved
solved by
by
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•
•Some
Some small
small models/problems
models/problems can
can be
be solved
solved by
by
hand
hand calculations
calculations
•
•Most
Most practical
practical applications
applications require
require using
using a
a
computer
computer
Model Solution
Model Solution

 A
A variety
variety of
of software
software packages
packages are
are available
available for
for
solving
solving mathematical
mathematical models
models.
.
•
•Microsoft
Microsoft Excel
Excel
•
•The
The Management
Management Scientist
Scientist
•
•LINGO
LINGO
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Model Testing and Validation
Model Testing and Validation

 Often,
Often, goodness/accuracy
goodness/accuracy of
of a
a model
model cannot
cannot be
be
assessed
assessed until
until solutions
solutions are
are generated
generated.
.

 Small
Small test
test problems
problems having
having known,
known, or
or at
at least
least
expected,
expected, solutions
solutions can
can be
be used
used for
for model
model testing
testing and
and
validation
validation.
.

 If
If the
the model
model generates
generates expected
expected solutions,
solutions, use
use the
the
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 If
If the
the model
model generates
generates expected
expected solutions,
solutions, use
use the
the
model
model on
on the
the full
full-
-scale
scale problem
problem.
.

 If
If inaccuracies
inaccuracies or
or potential
potential shortcomings
shortcomings inherent
inherent in
in
the
the model
model are
are identified,
identified, take
take corrective
corrective action
action such
such
as
as:
:
•
•Collection
Collection of
of more
more-
-accurate
accurate input
input data
data
•
•Modification
Modification of
of the
the model
model
Report Generation
Report Generation

 A
A managerial
managerial report,
report, based
based on
on the
the results
results of
of the
the
model,
model, should
should be
be prepared
prepared.
.

 The
The report
report should
should be
be easily
easily understood
understood by
by the
the
decision
decision maker
maker.
.

 The
The report
report should
should include
include:
:
•
•the
the recommended
recommended decision
decision
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•
•the
the recommended
recommended decision
decision
•
•other
other pertinent
pertinent information
information about
about the
the results
results (for
(for
example,
example, how
how sensitive
sensitive the
the model
model solution
solution is
is to
to the
the
assumptions
assumptions and
and data
data used
used in
in the
the model)
model)
Implementation and Follow
Implementation and Follow-
-Up
Up

 Successful
Successful implementation
implementation of
of model
model results
results is
is of
of
critical
critical importance
importance.
.

 Secure
Secure as
as much
much user
user involvement
involvement as
as possible
possible
throughout
throughout the
the modeling
modeling process
process.
.

 Continue
Continue to
to monitor
monitor the
the contribution
contribution of
of the
the model
model.
.

 It
It might
might be
be necessary
necessary to
to refine
refine or
or expand
expand the
the model
model.
.
26
26
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Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved

 It
It might
might be
be necessary
necessary to
to refine
refine or
or expand
expand the
the model
model.
.
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Example: Austin Auto Auction
An
An auctioneer
auctioneer has
has developed
developed a
a simple
simple mathematical
mathematical
model
model for
for deciding
deciding the
the starting
starting bid
bid he
he will
will require
require
when
when auctioning
auctioning a
a used
used automobile
automobile.
.
Essentially
Essentially,
, he
he sets
sets the
the starting
starting bid
bid at
at seventy
seventy percent
percent
of
of what
what he
he predicts
predicts the
the final
final winning
winning bid
bid will
will (or
(or
should)
should) be
be.
. He
He predicts
predicts the
the winning
winning bid
bid by
by starting
starting
with
with the
the car's
car's original
original selling
selling price
price and
and making
making two
two
27
27
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© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
with
with the
the car's
car's original
original selling
selling price
price and
and making
making two
two
deductions,
deductions, one
one based
based on
on the
the car's
car's age
age and
and the
the other
other
based
based on
on the
the car's
car's mileage
mileage.
.
The
The age
age deduction
deduction is
is $
$800
800 per
per year
year and
and the
the mileage
mileage
deduction
deduction is
is $
$.
.025
025 per
per mile
mile.
.
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Example: Austin Auto Auction

 Question
Question:
:
Develop
Develop the
the mathematical
mathematical model
model that
that will
will give
give the
the
starting
starting bid
bid (
(B
B )
) for
for a
a car
car in
in terms
terms of
of the
the car's
car's original
original
price
price (
(P
P ),
), current
current age
age (
(A
A)
) and
and mileage
mileage (
(M
M )
).
.
28
28
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© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
Answer:
Answer:
The expected winning bid can be expressed as:
The expected winning bid can be expressed as:
P
P -
- 800(
800(A
A)
) -
- .025(
.025(M
M )
)
The entire model is:
The entire model is:
B
B = .7(expected winning bid)
= .7(expected winning bid)
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Example: Austin Auto Auction
29
29
Slide
Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
B
B = .7(expected winning bid)
= .7(expected winning bid)
B
B = .7(
= .7(P
P -
- 800(
800(A
A)
) -
- .025(
.025(M
M ))
))
B
B = .7(
= .7(P
P )
)-
- 560(
560(A
A)
) -
- .0175(
.0175(M
M )
)
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Example: Austin Auto Auction

 Question
Question:
:
Suppose
Suppose a
a four
four-
-year
year old
old car
car with
with 60
60,
,000
000 miles
miles on
on the
the
odometer
odometer is
is being
being auctioned
auctioned.
. If
If its
its original
original price
price was
was
$
$12
12,
,500
500,
, what
what starting
starting bid
bid should
should the
the auctioneer
auctioneer
require?
require?

 Answer
Answer:
:
30
30
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© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved

 Answer
Answer:
:
B
B =
= .
.7
7(
(12
12,
,500
500)
) -
- 560
560(
(4
4)
) -
- .
.0175
0175(
(60
60,
,000
000)
) =
= $
$5
5,
,460
460
Example: Austin Auto Auction
Example: Austin Auto Auction

 Question
Question:
:
The
The model
model is
is based
based on
on what
what assumptions?
assumptions?

 Answer
Answer:
:
The
The model
model assumes
assumes that
that the
the only
only factors
factors
influencing
influencing the
the value
value of
of a
a used
used car
car are
are the
the original
original
price,
price, age,
age, and
and mileage
mileage (not
(not condition,
condition, rarity,
rarity, or
or other
other
31
31
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© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
price,
price, age,
age, and
and mileage
mileage (not
(not condition,
condition, rarity,
rarity, or
or other
other
factors)
factors).
.
Also,
Also, it
it is
is assumed
assumed that
that age
age and
and mileage
mileage devalue
devalue a
a
car
car in
in a
a linear
linear manner
manner and
and without
without limit
limit.
. (Note,
(Note, the
the
starting
starting bid
bid for
for a
a very
very old
old car
car might
might be
be negative!)
negative!)
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Iron Works, Inc. manufactures two
Iron Works, Inc. manufactures two
products made from steel and just received
products made from steel and just received
this month's allocation of
this month's allocation of b
b pounds of steel.
pounds of steel.
It takes
It takes a
a1
1 pounds of steel to make a unit of product 1
pounds of steel to make a unit of product 1
and
and a
a2
2 pounds of steel to make a unit of product 2.
pounds of steel to make a unit of product 2.
Let
Let x
x and
and x
x denote this month's production level of
denote this month's production level of
32
32
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© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
Let
Let x
x1
1 and
and x
x2
2 denote this month's production level of
denote this month's production level of
product 1 and product 2, respectively. Denote by
product 1 and product 2, respectively. Denote by p
p1
1 and
and
p
p2
2 the unit profits for products 1 and 2, respectively.
the unit profits for products 1 and 2, respectively.
Iron Works has a contract calling for at least
Iron Works has a contract calling for at least m
m units of
units of
product 1 this month. The firm's facilities are such that at
product 1 this month. The firm's facilities are such that at
most
most u
u units of product 2 may be produced monthly.
units of product 2 may be produced monthly.
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Example: Iron Works, Inc.

 Mathematical Model
Mathematical Model
•
•The total monthly profit =
The total monthly profit =
(profit per unit of product 1)
(profit per unit of product 1)
x (monthly production of product 1)
x (monthly production of product 1)
+ (profit per unit of product 2)
+ (profit per unit of product 2)
x (monthly production of product 2)
x (monthly production of product 2)
33
33
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© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
x (monthly production of product 2)
x (monthly production of product 2)
=
= p
p1
1x
x1
1 +
+ p
p2
2x
x2
2
We want to maximize total monthly profit:
We want to maximize total monthly profit:
Max
Max p
p1
1x
x1
1 +
+ p
p2
2x
x2
2
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Example: Iron Works, Inc.

 Mathematical Model (continued)
Mathematical Model (continued)
•
•The total amount of steel used during monthly
The total amount of steel used during monthly
production equals:
production equals:
(steel required per unit of product 1)
(steel required per unit of product 1)
x (monthly production of product 1)
x (monthly production of product 1)
+ (steel required per unit of product 2)
+ (steel required per unit of product 2)
34
34
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© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
+ (steel required per unit of product 2)
+ (steel required per unit of product 2)
x (monthly production of product 2)
x (monthly production of product 2)
=
= a
a1
1x
x1
1 + a
+ a2
2x
x2
2
This quantity must be less than or equal to the
This quantity must be less than or equal to the
allocated
allocated b
b pounds of steel:
pounds of steel:
a
a1
1x
x1
1 +
+ a
a2
2x
x2
2 
 b
b
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Example: Iron Works, Inc.

 Mathematical Model (continued)
Mathematical Model (continued)
•
•The monthly production level of product 1 must
The monthly production level of product 1 must
be greater than or equal to
be greater than or equal to m
m :
:
x
x1
1 
 m
m
•
•The monthly production level of product 2 must
The monthly production level of product 2 must
be less than or equal to
be less than or equal to u
u :
:
35
35
Slide
Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
be less than or equal to
be less than or equal to u
u :
:
x
x2
2 
 u
u
•
•However, the production level for product 2
However, the production level for product 2
cannot be negative:
cannot be negative:
x
x2
2 
 0
0
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Example: Iron Works, Inc.

 Mathematical Model Summary
Mathematical Model Summary
Max
Max p
p1
1x
x1
1 +
+ p
p2
2x
x2
2
s.t.
s.t. a
a1
1x
x1
1 +
+ a
a2
2x
x2
2 
 b
b
x
x1
1 
 m
m
x
x2
2 
 u
u
Objectiv
Objectiv
e
e
Function
Function
Constraint
Constraint
s
s
36
36
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Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
x
x2
2 
 u
u
x
x2
2 
 0
0
Function
Function
“Subject to”
“Subject to”
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Example: Iron Works, Inc.

 Question:
Question:
Suppose
Suppose b
b = 2000,
= 2000, a
a1
1 = 2,
= 2, a
a2
2 = 3,
= 3, m
m = 60,
= 60, u
u = 720,
= 720,
p
p1
1 = 100,
= 100, p
p2
2 = 200. Rewrite the model with these
= 200. Rewrite the model with these
specific values for the uncontrollable inputs.
specific values for the uncontrollable inputs.
37
37
Slide
Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
Example: Iron Works, Inc.
Example: Iron Works, Inc.

 Answer:
Answer:
Substituting, the model is:
Substituting, the model is:
Max 100
Max 100x
x1
1 + 200
+ 200x
x2
2
s.t. 2
s.t. 2x
x1
1 + 3
+ 3x
x2
2 
 2000
2000
x
x1
1 
 60
60
38
38
Slide
Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
x
x1
1 
 60
60
x
x2
2 
 720
720
x
x2
2 
 0
0
Management Science Techniques
Management Science Techniques

 Linear Programming
Linear Programming

 Integer Linear
Integer Linear
Programming
Programming

 PERT/CPM
PERT/CPM

 Inventory Models
Inventory Models

 Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis

 Goal Programming
Goal Programming

 Analytic Hierarchy
Analytic Hierarchy
Process
Process

 Forecasting
Forecasting
39
39
Slide
Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
Inventory Models
Inventory Models

 Waiting Line Models
Waiting Line Models

 Simulation
Simulation
Forecasting
Forecasting

 Markov
Markov-
-Process Models
Process Models

 Dynamic Programming
Dynamic Programming
The Management Scientist
The Management Scientist Software
Software

 12 Modules
12 Modules
40
40
Slide
Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
General Statement of Linear Programming
General Statement of Linear Programming

 In
In general
general terms,
terms, a
a linear
linear programming
programming problem
problem can
can be
be written
written as
as:
:
Maximize
Maximize Z=c
Z=c1
1x
x1
1 +
+ c
c2
2x
x2
2 +
+ ………
………+
+ c
cn
nx
xn
n (Objective
(Objective Function)
Function)
Subject
Subject to
to
a
a11
11x
x1
1 +
+ a
a12
12x
x2
2 +
+ ……………
……………..
.. +
+ a
a1
1n
nx
xn
n ≤
≤ b
b1
1
a
a21
21x
x1
1 +
+ a
a22
22x
x2
2 +
+ ……………
……………..
.. +
+ a
a2
2n
nx
xn
n ≤
≤ b
b2
2
.
.
.
.
.
.
41
41
Slide
Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved
.
.
a
am
m1
1x
x1
1 +
+ a
am
m2
2x
x2
2 +
+ …………
…………..
.. +
+ a
amn
mnx
xn
n ≤
≤ b
bm
m
x
x1
1,
, x
x2
2,
, ……………
……………x
xn
n ≥
≥ 0
0
Where,
Where, c
cj
j,
, a
aij
ij,
, b
bi
i (
(i
i=
=1
1,
, 2
2,
,…
…..
..,
, m
m;
; j=
j=1
1,
, 2
2,
,…
…..
..,
, n)
n) are
are known
known as
as constants
constants and
and x
xj
j’s
’s are
are
decisions
decisions variables
variables.
.
The
The c
cj
j’s
’s are
are termed
termed as
as profit
profit coefficients,
coefficients, a
aij
ij’s
’s the
the technological
technological coefficients
coefficients and
and b
bi
i’s
’s the
the
resource
resource values
values.
.
Solution to linear programming problems
Solution to linear programming problems

 LPPs can be solved by
LPPs can be solved by
•
•Graphic method
Graphic method
•
•Applying algebraic method (Simplex Method)
Applying algebraic method (Simplex Method)
42
42
Slide
Slide
© 2008 Thomson South
© 2008 Thomson South-
-Western. All Rights Reserved
Western. All Rights Reserved

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Intro_to_OR.pdf

  • 1. Chapter 1 Chapter 1 Introduction Introduction Body of Knowledge Body of Knowledge Problem Solving and Decision Making Problem Solving and Decision Making Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Quantitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis Models of Cost, Revenue, and Profit Models of Cost, Revenue, and Profit 1 1 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved Management Science Techniques Management Science Techniques
  • 2. Body of Knowledge Body of Knowledge The The body body of of knowledge knowledge involving involving quantitative quantitative approaches approaches to to decision decision making making is is referred referred to to as as • •Management Management Science Science • •Operations Operations Research Research • •Decision Decision Science Science It It had had its its early early roots roots in in World World War War II II and and is is flourishing flourishing 2 2 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved It It had had its its early early roots roots in in World World War War II II and and is is flourishing flourishing in in business business and and industry industry due, due, in in part, part, to to: : • •numerous numerous methodological methodological developments developments (e (e. .g g. . simplex simplex method method for for solving solving linear linear programming programming problems) problems) • •a a virtual virtual explosion explosion in in computing computing power power
  • 3. 7 7 Steps Steps of of Problem Problem Solving Solving (First (First 5 5 steps steps are are the the process process of of decision decision making making) ) 1 1. . Identify Identify and and define define the the problem problem. . 2 2. . Determine Determine the the set set of of alternative alternative solutions solutions. . 3 3. . Determine Determine the the criteria criteria for for evaluating evaluating alternatives alternatives. . 4 4. . Evaluate Evaluate the the alternatives alternatives. . Problem Solving and Decision Making Problem Solving and Decision Making 3 3 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved 4 4. . Evaluate Evaluate the the alternatives alternatives. . 5 5. . Choose Choose an an alternative alternative (make (make a a decision) decision). . --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 6. . Implement Implement the the selected selected alternative alternative. . 7 7. . Evaluate Evaluate the the results results. .
  • 4. Nature of OR Nature of OR OR OR is is being being regarded regarded as as the the application application of of scientific scientific methods methods to to decision decision making making. . OR OR attempts attempts to to provide provide a a systematic systematic and and rational rational approach approach to to the the fundamental fundamental problems problems involved involved in in the the control control of of systems systems by by making making decisions decisions which, which, in in a a sense, sense, achieve achieve the the best best results results considering considering all all the the information information that that can can be be profitably profitably used used. . 4 4 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved information information that that can can be be profitably profitably used used. . As As per per Churchman, Churchman, OR OR can can be be defined defined as as the the application application of of scientific scientific methods, methods, techniques techniques and and tools tools to to problems problems involving involving the the operations operations of of systems systems so so as as to to provide provide those those in in control control of of operations operations with with optimum optimum solutions solutions to to the the problems problems. .
  • 5. Significant Significant features features of of OR OR are are as as follows follows: : • • Decision Decision Making Making • • It It helps helps in in decision decision making making. . Steps Steps in in decision decision making making are are: : – Define the problem – Establish the criterion (maximization of profit, utility and minimization of cost etc) – Select the alternative courses of action. – Determine the model to be used and the values of the 5 5 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved – Determine the model to be used and the values of the parameters of the process – Evaluate the alternative and choose the one that is optimal. • Scientific Approach • OR employs scientific methods for the purpose of solving problems. • It is formalized process of reasoning.
  • 6. • Objective • OR attempts to locate the best or optimal solution to the problem under consideration. • Inter-disciplinary team approach • OR is inter-disciplinary in nature requires a team approach to the problem. 6 6 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved • Digital Computer – Use of digital computer has become an integral part of the operations research approach to decision making. – Computers are required due to complexity of the model, volume of data required or the computations to be made.
  • 7. Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Define Define the the Problem Problem Identify Identify the the Alternatives Alternatives Determine Determine the the Criteria Criteria Identify Identify the the Alternatives Alternatives Choose Choose an an Alternative Alternative Structuring the Problem Structuring the Problem Analyzing the Problem Analyzing the Problem Decision Decision- -Making Process Making Process 7 7 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 8. Analysis Analysis Phase Phase of of Decision Decision- -Making Making Process Process Qualitative Qualitative Analysis Analysis • • based based largely largely on on the the manager’s manager’s judgment judgment and and experience experience • • includes includes the the manager’s manager’s intuitive intuitive “feel” “feel” for for the the problem problem Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making 8 8 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved problem problem • • is is more more of of an an art art than than a a science science
  • 9. Analysis Analysis Phase Phase of of Decision Decision- -Making Making Process Process Quantitative Quantitative Analysis Analysis • • analyst analyst will will concentrate concentrate on on the the quantitative quantitative facts facts or or data data associated associated with with the the problem problem • • analyst analyst will will develop develop mathematical mathematical expressions expressions that that describe describe the the objectives, objectives, constraints, constraints, and and Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making 9 9 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved that that describe describe the the objectives, objectives, constraints, constraints, and and other other relationships relationships that that exist exist in in the the problem problem • • analyst analyst will will use use one one or or more more quantitative quantitative methods methods to to make make a a recommendation recommendation
  • 10. Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Quantitative Analysis and Decision Making Potential Potential Reasons Reasons for for a a Quantitative Quantitative Analysis Analysis Approach Approach to to Decision Decision Making Making • •The The problem problem is is complex complex. . • •The The problem problem is is very very important important. . • •The The problem problem is is new new. . • •The The problem problem is is repetitive repetitive. . 10 10 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved • •The The problem problem is is repetitive repetitive. .
  • 11. Quantitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis Process Quantitative Analysis Process • •Model Development Model Development • •Data Preparation Data Preparation • •Model Solution Model Solution • •Report Generation Report Generation 11 11 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 12. Model Development Model Development Models Models are are representations representations of of real real objects objects or or situations situations Three Three forms forms of of models models are are: : • •Iconic Iconic models models - - physical physical replicas replicas (scalar (scalar representations) representations) of of real real objects objects • •Analog Analog models models - - physical physical in in form, form, but but do do not not physically physically resemble resemble the the object object being being modeled modeled 12 12 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved physically physically resemble resemble the the object object being being modeled modeled • •Mathematical Mathematical models models - - represent represent real real world world problems problems through through a a system system of of mathematical mathematical formulas formulas and and expressions expressions based based on on key key assumptions, assumptions, estimates, estimates, or or statistical statistical analyses analyses
  • 13. Advantages of Models Advantages of Models Generally, Generally, experimenting experimenting with with models models (compared (compared to to experimenting experimenting with with the the real real situation) situation): : • •requires requires less less time time • •is is less less expensive expensive • •involves involves less less risk risk The The more more closely closely the the model model represents represents the the real real 13 13 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved The The more more closely closely the the model model represents represents the the real real situation, situation, the the accurate accurate the the conclusions conclusions and and predictions predictions will will be be. .
  • 14. Mathematical Models Mathematical Models Objective Objective Function Function – – a a mathematical mathematical expression expression that that describes describes the the problem’s problem’s objective, objective, such such as as maximizing maximizing profit profit or or minimizing minimizing cost cost Constraints Constraints – – a a set set of of restrictions restrictions or or limitations, limitations, such such as as production production capacities capacities Uncontrollable Uncontrollable Inputs Inputs – – environmental environmental factors factors that that are are 14 14 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved Uncontrollable Uncontrollable Inputs Inputs – – environmental environmental factors factors that that are are not not under under the the control control of of the the decision decision maker maker Decision Decision Variables Variables – – controllable controllable inputs inputs; ; decision decision alternatives alternatives specified specified by by the the decision decision maker, maker, such such as as the the number number of of units units of of Product Product X X to to produce produce
  • 15. Mathematical Models Mathematical Models Deterministic Deterministic Model Model – – if if all all uncontrollable uncontrollable inputs inputs to to the the model model are are known known and and cannot cannot vary vary Stochastic Stochastic (or (or Probabilistic) Probabilistic) Model Model – – if if any any uncontrollable uncontrollable inputs inputs are are uncertain uncertain and and subject subject to to variation variation Stochastic Stochastic models models are are often often more more difficult difficult to to analyze analyze. . 15 15 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 16. Mathematical Models Mathematical Models Cost/benefit Cost/benefit considerations considerations must must be be made made in in selecting selecting an an appropriate appropriate mathematical mathematical model model. . Frequently Frequently a a less less complicated complicated (and (and perhaps perhaps less less precise) precise) model model is is more more appropriate appropriate than than a a more more complex complex and and accurate accurate one one due due to to cost cost and and ease ease of of solution solution considerations considerations. . 16 16 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 17. Transforming Model Inputs into Output Transforming Model Inputs into Output Uncontrollable Inputs Uncontrollable Inputs (Environmental Factors) (Environmental Factors) Controllable Controllable Output Output 17 17 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved Controllable Controllable Inputs Inputs (Decision (Decision Variables) Variables) Output Output (Projected (Projected Results) Results) Mathematical Mathematical Model Model
  • 18. Example: Example: 2.1, Maximization case (NDV) 2.1, Maximization case (NDV) A A firm firm is is engaged engaged in in producing producing two two products, products, A A and and B B. . Each Each unit unit of of product product A A requires requires 2 2 Kg Kg of of raw raw material material and and 4 4 labor labor hours hours for for processing, processing, whereas whereas each each unit unit of of product product B B requires requires 3 3 Kg Kg of of raw raw material material and and 3 3 labor labor hours hours. . Every Every week, week, the the firm firm has has an an availability availability of of 60 60 Kg Kg of of r raw aw material material and and 96 96 labor labor hours hours. . One One unit unit of of product product A A sold sold yields yields Rs Rs. . 40 40 and and one one unit unit of of product product B B sold sold gives gives Rs Rs. . 35 35 as as profit profit. . 18 18 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved and and one one unit unit of of product product B B sold sold gives gives Rs Rs. . 35 35 as as profit profit. . Formulate Formulate this this problem problem of of linear linear programming programming problem problem to to determine determine as as to to how how many many units units of of each each of of the the products products should should be be produced produced per per week week so so that that the the firm firm can can earn earn the the maximum maximum profit profit. . Assume Assume that that there there is is no no mktg mktg. . constraint constraint so so that that all all that that is is produced produced can can be be sold sold. .
  • 19. Solution of Example 2.1 Solution of Example 2.1 • •Define the objective function Define the objective function • •Define constraints Define constraints • •Non Non- -negativity constraints negativity constraints • •Formulate LPP. Formulate LPP. 19 19 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 20. Example: Example: Example 2.2, Minimization case Example 2.2, Minimization case (NDV) (NDV) The The agricultural agricultural research research institute institute suggested suggested to to a a farmer farmer to to spread spread out out at at least least 4800 4800 kg kg of of a a special special phosphate phosphate fertilizer fertilizer and and not not less less than than 7200 7200 kg kg of of a a special special nitrogen nitrogen fertilizer fertilizer to to raise raise productivity productivity of of crops crops in in his his fields fields. . There There are are two two sources sources for for obtaining obtaining these these--- ---mixtures mixtures A A B B. . Both Both of of these these are are available available in in bags bags weighing weighing 100 100 kg kg each each and and they they cost cost Rs Rs. . 40 40 and and 20 20 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved bags bags weighing weighing 100 100 kg kg each each and and they they cost cost Rs Rs. . 40 40 and and Rs Rs. . 24 24 resp resp. . Mixture Mixture A A contains contains phosphate phosphate and and nitrogen nitrogen equivalent equivalent of of 20 20 kg kg and and 80 80 kg kg resp resp. . while while mixture mixture B B contains contains these these ingredients ingredients equivalent equivalent of of 50 50 kg kg each each. . Write Write this this as as a a LPP LPP to to determine determine how how many many bags bags of of each each type type the the farmer farmer should should buy buy in in order order to to obtain obtain the the required required fertilizer fertilizer at at minimum minimum cost cost. .
  • 21. Model Solution Model Solution The The analyst analyst attempts attempts to to identify identify the the alternative alternative (the (the set set of of decision decision variable variable values) values) that that provides provides the the “best” “best” output output for for the the model model. . The The “best” “best” output output is is the the optimal optimal solution solution. . If If the the alternative alternative does does not not satisfy satisfy all all of of the the model model constraints, constraints, it it is is rejected rejected as as being being infeasible infeasible, , regardless regardless 21 21 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved constraints, constraints, it it is is rejected rejected as as being being infeasible infeasible, , regardless regardless of of the the objective objective function function value value. . If If the the alternative alternative satisfies satisfies all all of of the the model model constraints, constraints, it it is is feasible feasible and and a a candidate candidate for for the the “best” “best” solution solution. .
  • 22. Model Solution Model Solution One One solution solution approach approach is is trial trial- -and and- -error error. . • •Might Might not not provide provide the the best best solution solution • •Inefficient Inefficient (numerous (numerous calculations calculations required) required) Special Special solution solution procedures procedures have have been been developed developed for for specific specific mathematical mathematical models models. . • •Some Some small small models/problems models/problems can can be be solved solved by by 22 22 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved • •Some Some small small models/problems models/problems can can be be solved solved by by hand hand calculations calculations • •Most Most practical practical applications applications require require using using a a computer computer
  • 23. Model Solution Model Solution A A variety variety of of software software packages packages are are available available for for solving solving mathematical mathematical models models. . • •Microsoft Microsoft Excel Excel • •The The Management Management Scientist Scientist • •LINGO LINGO 23 23 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 24. Model Testing and Validation Model Testing and Validation Often, Often, goodness/accuracy goodness/accuracy of of a a model model cannot cannot be be assessed assessed until until solutions solutions are are generated generated. . Small Small test test problems problems having having known, known, or or at at least least expected, expected, solutions solutions can can be be used used for for model model testing testing and and validation validation. . If If the the model model generates generates expected expected solutions, solutions, use use the the 24 24 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved If If the the model model generates generates expected expected solutions, solutions, use use the the model model on on the the full full- -scale scale problem problem. . If If inaccuracies inaccuracies or or potential potential shortcomings shortcomings inherent inherent in in the the model model are are identified, identified, take take corrective corrective action action such such as as: : • •Collection Collection of of more more- -accurate accurate input input data data • •Modification Modification of of the the model model
  • 25. Report Generation Report Generation A A managerial managerial report, report, based based on on the the results results of of the the model, model, should should be be prepared prepared. . The The report report should should be be easily easily understood understood by by the the decision decision maker maker. . The The report report should should include include: : • •the the recommended recommended decision decision 25 25 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved • •the the recommended recommended decision decision • •other other pertinent pertinent information information about about the the results results (for (for example, example, how how sensitive sensitive the the model model solution solution is is to to the the assumptions assumptions and and data data used used in in the the model) model)
  • 26. Implementation and Follow Implementation and Follow- -Up Up Successful Successful implementation implementation of of model model results results is is of of critical critical importance importance. . Secure Secure as as much much user user involvement involvement as as possible possible throughout throughout the the modeling modeling process process. . Continue Continue to to monitor monitor the the contribution contribution of of the the model model. . It It might might be be necessary necessary to to refine refine or or expand expand the the model model. . 26 26 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved It It might might be be necessary necessary to to refine refine or or expand expand the the model model. .
  • 27. Example: Austin Auto Auction Example: Austin Auto Auction An An auctioneer auctioneer has has developed developed a a simple simple mathematical mathematical model model for for deciding deciding the the starting starting bid bid he he will will require require when when auctioning auctioning a a used used automobile automobile. . Essentially Essentially, , he he sets sets the the starting starting bid bid at at seventy seventy percent percent of of what what he he predicts predicts the the final final winning winning bid bid will will (or (or should) should) be be. . He He predicts predicts the the winning winning bid bid by by starting starting with with the the car's car's original original selling selling price price and and making making two two 27 27 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved with with the the car's car's original original selling selling price price and and making making two two deductions, deductions, one one based based on on the the car's car's age age and and the the other other based based on on the the car's car's mileage mileage. . The The age age deduction deduction is is $ $800 800 per per year year and and the the mileage mileage deduction deduction is is $ $. .025 025 per per mile mile. .
  • 28. Example: Austin Auto Auction Example: Austin Auto Auction Question Question: : Develop Develop the the mathematical mathematical model model that that will will give give the the starting starting bid bid ( (B B ) ) for for a a car car in in terms terms of of the the car's car's original original price price ( (P P ), ), current current age age ( (A A) ) and and mileage mileage ( (M M ) ). . 28 28 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 29. Answer: Answer: The expected winning bid can be expressed as: The expected winning bid can be expressed as: P P - - 800( 800(A A) ) - - .025( .025(M M ) ) The entire model is: The entire model is: B B = .7(expected winning bid) = .7(expected winning bid) Example: Austin Auto Auction Example: Austin Auto Auction 29 29 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved B B = .7(expected winning bid) = .7(expected winning bid) B B = .7( = .7(P P - - 800( 800(A A) ) - - .025( .025(M M )) )) B B = .7( = .7(P P ) )- - 560( 560(A A) ) - - .0175( .0175(M M ) )
  • 30. Example: Austin Auto Auction Example: Austin Auto Auction Question Question: : Suppose Suppose a a four four- -year year old old car car with with 60 60, ,000 000 miles miles on on the the odometer odometer is is being being auctioned auctioned. . If If its its original original price price was was $ $12 12, ,500 500, , what what starting starting bid bid should should the the auctioneer auctioneer require? require? Answer Answer: : 30 30 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved Answer Answer: : B B = = . .7 7( (12 12, ,500 500) ) - - 560 560( (4 4) ) - - . .0175 0175( (60 60, ,000 000) ) = = $ $5 5, ,460 460
  • 31. Example: Austin Auto Auction Example: Austin Auto Auction Question Question: : The The model model is is based based on on what what assumptions? assumptions? Answer Answer: : The The model model assumes assumes that that the the only only factors factors influencing influencing the the value value of of a a used used car car are are the the original original price, price, age, age, and and mileage mileage (not (not condition, condition, rarity, rarity, or or other other 31 31 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved price, price, age, age, and and mileage mileage (not (not condition, condition, rarity, rarity, or or other other factors) factors). . Also, Also, it it is is assumed assumed that that age age and and mileage mileage devalue devalue a a car car in in a a linear linear manner manner and and without without limit limit. . (Note, (Note, the the starting starting bid bid for for a a very very old old car car might might be be negative!) negative!)
  • 32. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Iron Works, Inc. manufactures two Iron Works, Inc. manufactures two products made from steel and just received products made from steel and just received this month's allocation of this month's allocation of b b pounds of steel. pounds of steel. It takes It takes a a1 1 pounds of steel to make a unit of product 1 pounds of steel to make a unit of product 1 and and a a2 2 pounds of steel to make a unit of product 2. pounds of steel to make a unit of product 2. Let Let x x and and x x denote this month's production level of denote this month's production level of 32 32 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved Let Let x x1 1 and and x x2 2 denote this month's production level of denote this month's production level of product 1 and product 2, respectively. Denote by product 1 and product 2, respectively. Denote by p p1 1 and and p p2 2 the unit profits for products 1 and 2, respectively. the unit profits for products 1 and 2, respectively. Iron Works has a contract calling for at least Iron Works has a contract calling for at least m m units of units of product 1 this month. The firm's facilities are such that at product 1 this month. The firm's facilities are such that at most most u u units of product 2 may be produced monthly. units of product 2 may be produced monthly.
  • 33. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Mathematical Model Mathematical Model • •The total monthly profit = The total monthly profit = (profit per unit of product 1) (profit per unit of product 1) x (monthly production of product 1) x (monthly production of product 1) + (profit per unit of product 2) + (profit per unit of product 2) x (monthly production of product 2) x (monthly production of product 2) 33 33 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved x (monthly production of product 2) x (monthly production of product 2) = = p p1 1x x1 1 + + p p2 2x x2 2 We want to maximize total monthly profit: We want to maximize total monthly profit: Max Max p p1 1x x1 1 + + p p2 2x x2 2
  • 34. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Mathematical Model (continued) Mathematical Model (continued) • •The total amount of steel used during monthly The total amount of steel used during monthly production equals: production equals: (steel required per unit of product 1) (steel required per unit of product 1) x (monthly production of product 1) x (monthly production of product 1) + (steel required per unit of product 2) + (steel required per unit of product 2) 34 34 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved + (steel required per unit of product 2) + (steel required per unit of product 2) x (monthly production of product 2) x (monthly production of product 2) = = a a1 1x x1 1 + a + a2 2x x2 2 This quantity must be less than or equal to the This quantity must be less than or equal to the allocated allocated b b pounds of steel: pounds of steel: a a1 1x x1 1 + + a a2 2x x2 2 b b
  • 35. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Mathematical Model (continued) Mathematical Model (continued) • •The monthly production level of product 1 must The monthly production level of product 1 must be greater than or equal to be greater than or equal to m m : : x x1 1 m m • •The monthly production level of product 2 must The monthly production level of product 2 must be less than or equal to be less than or equal to u u : : 35 35 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved be less than or equal to be less than or equal to u u : : x x2 2 u u • •However, the production level for product 2 However, the production level for product 2 cannot be negative: cannot be negative: x x2 2 0 0
  • 36. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Mathematical Model Summary Mathematical Model Summary Max Max p p1 1x x1 1 + + p p2 2x x2 2 s.t. s.t. a a1 1x x1 1 + + a a2 2x x2 2 b b x x1 1 m m x x2 2 u u Objectiv Objectiv e e Function Function Constraint Constraint s s 36 36 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved x x2 2 u u x x2 2 0 0 Function Function “Subject to” “Subject to”
  • 37. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Question: Question: Suppose Suppose b b = 2000, = 2000, a a1 1 = 2, = 2, a a2 2 = 3, = 3, m m = 60, = 60, u u = 720, = 720, p p1 1 = 100, = 100, p p2 2 = 200. Rewrite the model with these = 200. Rewrite the model with these specific values for the uncontrollable inputs. specific values for the uncontrollable inputs. 37 37 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 38. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Example: Iron Works, Inc. Answer: Answer: Substituting, the model is: Substituting, the model is: Max 100 Max 100x x1 1 + 200 + 200x x2 2 s.t. 2 s.t. 2x x1 1 + 3 + 3x x2 2 2000 2000 x x1 1 60 60 38 38 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved x x1 1 60 60 x x2 2 720 720 x x2 2 0 0
  • 39. Management Science Techniques Management Science Techniques Linear Programming Linear Programming Integer Linear Integer Linear Programming Programming PERT/CPM PERT/CPM Inventory Models Inventory Models Decision Analysis Decision Analysis Goal Programming Goal Programming Analytic Hierarchy Analytic Hierarchy Process Process Forecasting Forecasting 39 39 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved Inventory Models Inventory Models Waiting Line Models Waiting Line Models Simulation Simulation Forecasting Forecasting Markov Markov- -Process Models Process Models Dynamic Programming Dynamic Programming
  • 40. The Management Scientist The Management Scientist Software Software 12 Modules 12 Modules 40 40 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved
  • 41. General Statement of Linear Programming General Statement of Linear Programming In In general general terms, terms, a a linear linear programming programming problem problem can can be be written written as as: : Maximize Maximize Z=c Z=c1 1x x1 1 + + c c2 2x x2 2 + + ……… ………+ + c cn nx xn n (Objective (Objective Function) Function) Subject Subject to to a a11 11x x1 1 + + a a12 12x x2 2 + + …………… …………….. .. + + a a1 1n nx xn n ≤ ≤ b b1 1 a a21 21x x1 1 + + a a22 22x x2 2 + + …………… …………….. .. + + a a2 2n nx xn n ≤ ≤ b b2 2 . . . . . . 41 41 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved . . a am m1 1x x1 1 + + a am m2 2x x2 2 + + ………… ………….. .. + + a amn mnx xn n ≤ ≤ b bm m x x1 1, , x x2 2, , …………… ……………x xn n ≥ ≥ 0 0 Where, Where, c cj j, , a aij ij, , b bi i ( (i i= =1 1, , 2 2, ,… ….. .., , m m; ; j= j=1 1, , 2 2, ,… ….. .., , n) n) are are known known as as constants constants and and x xj j’s ’s are are decisions decisions variables variables. . The The c cj j’s ’s are are termed termed as as profit profit coefficients, coefficients, a aij ij’s ’s the the technological technological coefficients coefficients and and b bi i’s ’s the the resource resource values values. .
  • 42. Solution to linear programming problems Solution to linear programming problems LPPs can be solved by LPPs can be solved by • •Graphic method Graphic method • •Applying algebraic method (Simplex Method) Applying algebraic method (Simplex Method) 42 42 Slide Slide © 2008 Thomson South © 2008 Thomson South- -Western. All Rights Reserved Western. All Rights Reserved