is dead
Long live
mobile
1
MOBILE DEFINES
OUR ERA
2
The PC is dead!
3
4
web = loser | apps = winner
The web is dead!
5
EVOLUTION
REVOLUTION
REVOLUTION
6
7
SOFTWARE
HARDWARE
8
DYING BRANDS
9
WINNING BRANDS
10
11
AND MORETO COME
12
SOFTWARE
13
14
15
WE ARE SOCIAL - WITHOUT
SOCIAL NETWORKS
16
17
4.2 billion
Twitter
Mobile is social, distributed and huge
focus
MOBILE MESSAGING WILL EAT “SOCIAL”AND
MEDIA SHARING
18
WHICH SHOULD MEAN
19
20
UN-NATURAL
ACTS
ADVERTISING
21
Web Ads
still growing
22
23
24
25
Bad News =
eCPMs 5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop
$0.49
$0.51
$0.55
$0.63
$0.68
$0.68
$0.68
$0.89
$1.17
$1.24
$0.75
$3.50
$- $1 $2 $3 $4
Navigation
Games
Reference
Medical
Entertainment
Health & Fitness
Utilities
Lifestyle
Education
Weather
Mobile Internet**
Desktop Internet*
Effective CPM, Desktop Internet* vs. Mobile Internet**
Note: * Desktop Internet is a weighted average CPM calculation based on comScore Display ad share data and Vivaki CPM by category data as
of Q3:11. **Mobile Internet is a simple average eCPM calculation based on Mobclix Exchange USA data as of 3/12.
Mobile eCPM by Category
19
26
27
28
29
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
Is bad for
30
OPPORTUNITIES
31
32
33
80,000 users in 140 countries in 21 days.
34
35
Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far,
Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Smartphone Mobile Phone
GlobalSubscriptions(MM)
Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11
Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Research’s
estimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%).
Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobile
subscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s.
953MM
Smartphone
Subscriptions
6.1B Mobile Phone
Subscriptions
11
1.1 B
Smartphones will
outperform the overall
market for mobile phones,
growing at a CAGR of
23% between 2011 and
2017 to reach 1.7 billion
units
Dec 2012
36
SO WHAT ARETHE
OPPORTUNITIES
• Mobile Messaging eats media sharing and social networking
• Payments
• Medical Sensors and Data
• Cloud for Mobile
• Time and Space - Mobile meetsThings
• Entertainment - the end of TV; the end of games consoles
• Advertising - not the web
37
Consequences For
Developers
• mobile is going to kill desktop and laptop based
software, although it will take some time it has
already started.
• Mobile is much bigger than desktop and with
lots of growth potential
• Its an app world, not a web world
• Front end developers need Objective C; Java
and HTML5/CSS3/Javascript.
• Back end need to go beyond SQL to Hadoop
and other NOSQL solutions.
• Selling developer service to western companies
is not a way to get rich. Build Apps and back end
solutions (services)
• Cloud is changing too. Message Bus and
Storage, not apps consumed in browsers.
• On mobile you are rewarded for thinking
global.Your home market is NOT your market.
The world is.
• You can get big fast
• Russian developers are not at a disadvantage if
they take account of these trends early and
aggressively
38
Consequences For
Businesses
• IT needs to embrace BYOD
(Bring your own Device).
• Desktop communications begins
to phase out.
• Secure Apps able to access
Corporate Data are needed.
• Secure Cloud Storage is needed.
• De-centralized model will grow
as data moves to the device.
• API’s remain key for B2B
relationships.
• Desktop is not the key focus
any more.
39
Credits
Business Insider - http://www.businessinsider.com/
the-future-of-mobile-deck-2012-3?op=1
Kleiner Perkins & Mary Meeker - http://
www.kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends
Flurry - http://blog.flurry.com/
Get My Slides
http://slides.just.me
40
http://just.me/downloadtheapp
41
спасибо
keith@teare.com
Facebook: kteare
Twitter: @kteare
just.me: *kteare
42

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Mblt#13

  • 3. The PC is dead! 3
  • 4. 4
  • 5. web = loser | apps = winner The web is dead! 5
  • 7. 7
  • 11. 11
  • 14. 14
  • 15. 15
  • 16. WE ARE SOCIAL - WITHOUT SOCIAL NETWORKS 16
  • 17. 17
  • 18. 4.2 billion Twitter Mobile is social, distributed and huge focus MOBILE MESSAGING WILL EAT “SOCIAL”AND MEDIA SHARING 18
  • 20. 20
  • 23. 23
  • 24. 24
  • 25. 25
  • 26. Bad News = eCPMs 5x Lower on Mobile than Desktop $0.49 $0.51 $0.55 $0.63 $0.68 $0.68 $0.68 $0.89 $1.17 $1.24 $0.75 $3.50 $- $1 $2 $3 $4 Navigation Games Reference Medical Entertainment Health & Fitness Utilities Lifestyle Education Weather Mobile Internet** Desktop Internet* Effective CPM, Desktop Internet* vs. Mobile Internet** Note: * Desktop Internet is a weighted average CPM calculation based on comScore Display ad share data and Vivaki CPM by category data as of Q3:11. **Mobile Internet is a simple average eCPM calculation based on Mobclix Exchange USA data as of 3/12. Mobile eCPM by Category 19 26
  • 27. 27
  • 28. 28
  • 29. 29
  • 30. WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Is bad for 30
  • 32. 32
  • 33. 33
  • 34. 80,000 users in 140 countries in 21 days. 34
  • 35. 35
  • 36. Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far, Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Smartphone Mobile Phone GlobalSubscriptions(MM) Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11 Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Research’s estimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%). Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobile subscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s. 953MM Smartphone Subscriptions 6.1B Mobile Phone Subscriptions 11 1.1 B Smartphones will outperform the overall market for mobile phones, growing at a CAGR of 23% between 2011 and 2017 to reach 1.7 billion units Dec 2012 36
  • 37. SO WHAT ARETHE OPPORTUNITIES • Mobile Messaging eats media sharing and social networking • Payments • Medical Sensors and Data • Cloud for Mobile • Time and Space - Mobile meetsThings • Entertainment - the end of TV; the end of games consoles • Advertising - not the web 37
  • 38. Consequences For Developers • mobile is going to kill desktop and laptop based software, although it will take some time it has already started. • Mobile is much bigger than desktop and with lots of growth potential • Its an app world, not a web world • Front end developers need Objective C; Java and HTML5/CSS3/Javascript. • Back end need to go beyond SQL to Hadoop and other NOSQL solutions. • Selling developer service to western companies is not a way to get rich. Build Apps and back end solutions (services) • Cloud is changing too. Message Bus and Storage, not apps consumed in browsers. • On mobile you are rewarded for thinking global.Your home market is NOT your market. The world is. • You can get big fast • Russian developers are not at a disadvantage if they take account of these trends early and aggressively 38
  • 39. Consequences For Businesses • IT needs to embrace BYOD (Bring your own Device). • Desktop communications begins to phase out. • Secure Apps able to access Corporate Data are needed. • Secure Cloud Storage is needed. • De-centralized model will grow as data moves to the device. • API’s remain key for B2B relationships. • Desktop is not the key focus any more. 39
  • 40. Credits Business Insider - http://www.businessinsider.com/ the-future-of-mobile-deck-2012-3?op=1 Kleiner Perkins & Mary Meeker - http:// www.kpcb.com/insights/2012-internet-trends Flurry - http://blog.flurry.com/ Get My Slides http://slides.just.me 40