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An Introduction to
Network Theory
Kyle Findlay
Kyle.Findlay@tns-global.com
R&D Executive
TNS Global Brand Equity Centre




                                                                                            Presented at the
                                       SAMRA 2010 Conference
                                 Mount Grace Country House and Spa, Magaliesburg, South Africa, from 2| to 5 June 2010
                                            An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay SAMRA 2010
An agent/object's actions are affected
by the actions of others around it.



   What is a network?
                 Actions, choices, etc. are not made in isolation
        i.e. they are contingent on others' actions, choices, etc.


                                      An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
“A collection of objects connected to
each other in some fashion”
[Watts, 2002]
   Social groups                                      Diseases                                               Stem cells
   The internet                                       Neural networks (computer & human)                     Other cells
   Cities                                             Proteins & genes                                       Plants




                                                                                                          Quaking Aspen (one of the largest organisms in the world –
                                                                                                          these trees represent a single organism with a shared root
                                                                                                                                   system)
                    The blogosphere


                                                         Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002




             Proliferation of landlines in London




What is a network?
                                                                     Human genome

                                                                                                                                  Rabbit cell

                                                                                               An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
▫ New paradigm: “real networks represent populations of individual components
            that are actually doing something” [Watts, 2002]
              In other words, networks are dynamic objects that are continually changing
              Understanding a network is important because its structure affects the individual
               components’ behaviour and the behaviour of the system as a whole



  Networks used to be thought of as systems… structures
      ▫ Networks are key to understanding non-linear, dynamic
                                                              fixed
              …just like those represented by almost every facet of the universe…
              …from the atomic level right through to the cosmic level
        ▫   The important part is that the components are not acting independently – they
            are affected by the components around them!
        ▫   Note: links between component may be   physical (e.g. power cable, magnetism)
            or   conceptual (e.g. social connections)




What is a network?                                          An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
CAUTION: Gratuitous network shots




                       Data networks                                            Air traffic network




           Telecommunications networks                                      Shipping (sea) networks


 Source: Britain From Above (http://www.bbc.co.uk/britainfromabove)   An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
Network thinking can be applied
almost anywhere!




                     An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PufTeIBNRJ4


      Epidemiology (i.e. spread of diseases)
      e.g. spread of foot & mouth disease in the UK in 2001 over 75 days



Where’s it applied?                                                      An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8C_dnP2fvxk


      Physics
      e.g. particle interactions, the structure of the universe


Where’s it applied?                                             An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRZ2iEHFgGo         URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEoP-XtJueo




           Engineering
           e.g. creation of robust infrastructure (e.g. electricity, telecoms), rust formation (natural growth
           processes similar to diffusion limited aggregation)

Where’s it applied?                                            An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
Vid not working




  URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-RoDv7c5ok         URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4g930pm8Ms




             Technology
             e.g. mapping the online world, making networks resilient in the face of cyber-terrorism,
             optimising cellular networks, controlling air traffic

Where’s it applied?                                            An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YadP3w7vkJA        URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sp8tLPDMUyg




           Biology
           e.g. fish swimming in schools, ant colonies, birds flying in formation, crickets chirping in
           unison, giant honeybees shimmering

Where’s it applied?                                           An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
Source: The Human Brain Book by Rita Carter



      Medicine
      e.g. cell formation, nervous system, neural networks



Where’s it applied?                                                    An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n9irapdON4     URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sD2yosZ9qDw




            And, most interestingly…society
            e.g. interactions between people (e.g. Facebook; group behaviour)



Where’s it applied?                                         An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
Some terminology…
                            ▫ Node = individual
                              components of a
                              network e.g.
                              people, power
                              stations, neurons,
                              etc.

                            ▫ Edge = direct link
                              between
                              components
                              (referred to as a
                              dyad in context of
                              social networking
                    An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
No connections                   Some nodes                   All relevant nodes
    between nodes                     connected                            connected




         c=0                               c = 1/3                           c=1


▫   Tells you how likely a node is to be   connected to its neighbours…
        …and, importantly, how likely that its neighbours are   connected to each other
▫   Put another way, it tells you how close a node and its neighbors are to being a       clique where
    “everybody knows everyone else”

                                                                                     Important network features:

                                                Clustering co-efficient
                                                          An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
“Unclustered” network                         “Clustered” network
  None of Ego’s friends know each other*         All of Ego’s friends know each other




                                                                          Important network features:

                                           Clustering co-efficient
*Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002       An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ A real-world example: CEOs of Fortune 500 companies
                   Which companies share directors? Clusters are
                    colour-coded




                                                                                          Important network features:

                                                           Clustering co-efficient
Source: http://flickr.com/photos/11242012@N07/1363558436       An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ Average path length = the average number of
                     ‘hops’ required to reach any other node in the
                     network
                   ▫ “Six degrees of separation” average path length =
                     6




Important network features:

Average path length
                                              An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ The degree of a node is the number of connections
        (or edges) it has coming in from, and going out to,
        other nodes         1
                                  2
                 10
                                                   3


                 9
                             Node                       4


                     8

                         7
                                            5
10 connections                  6
  or “edges”
                                                                Important network features:

                                    Degree distribution
                                     An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
3 main types of networks
             1.    Grid/lattice network                2.   Small-world network                     3.   Random network
                            (structure, order)               (a mix of order and randomness)                    (randomness)




             β=0                                      << Level of randomness of links >>                                            β=1



They sit on a     continuum based on a few factors:
       1
           Randomness                                  2
                                                            Clustering                          3
                                                                                                    Ave path length
           *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002                                     An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
3 main types of networks:

Grid/Lattice network
                   ▫ Simplest form of network with nodes ranged
                     geometrically
                   ▫ Low degree (nodes only connected to closest
                     neighbours)
                   ▫ High clustering
                   ▫ Long average path length (no shortcuts – have to
                     go through all nodes)

                    ▫ Pros: methodical, easy to visualise
                    ▫ Cons: not very good at modeling most real-
         1D lattice
                      world networks
                             Molecule   Diamond (crystal) lattice Bismuth crystal
                                                    An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
3 main types of networks:

Small world network
                          ▫ Most nodes aren’t neighbours, but they can be
                            reached
                            from every other node by a small number of
                            hops or steps
                                      Higher clustering co-efficient than to a few random
                                   i.e. small average path length dueone would expect if
                                          connections were made by pure random chance
                                        re-wirings
                                           − “A small world network, where nodes represent people and edges
                                                 connect people that know each other, captures the small world
                                                 phenomenon of strangers being linked by a mutual acquaintance”



                   Common in nature, including everything from the internet
                    to gene regulatory networks to ecosystems

         Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small-world_network            An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
3 main types of networks:

Random network

                            ▫ Lower clustering than small-world
                              networks generally
                            ▫ No “force” or “bias” influencing how
                              links are created between nodes
                                i.e. probability of creating an edge/link is
                                  independent of previous connections




                                              An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
The big picture
                                            Nature
                                            ▫ Networks are evident
                                              everywhere in nature
                                             ▫ In fact, most natural growth
    Natural growth = evolutionary, iterative growth, where future growth is
    constrained by previous growth patterns (referred to as path dependence)
                                                 processes come about due to
       − i.e. growth follows the network structure
                                                 network behaviour




                                                      An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
And market research?
            ▫   Networks better reflect reality and capture complexity i.e. non-linear dynamics
            ▫   Network theory helps us to better understand:




?How will word of my
 brand permeate through
                                 ? How will negative publicity
                                   about my brand spread and
                                                                        ?  Who are the gatekeepers
                                                                           in a community that
 my target market?                 be interpreted?                         most affect the
                                                                           flow of information?




                ?How is the market likely to
                 fall out in terms of
                                                   ?  What will the non-linear
                 market share                         impact be of a specific
                 (Double Jeopardy)?                   change in the market
                                                      e.g. change in market share,
                                                      perceptions, etc.

                                                             An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
And market research?
▫   Network theory has been used to understand imagery and market barriers
     Adjusting attributes and seeing knock-on effect in network
       Using agent-based modeling to model this effect



                                              Useful for word-of-mouth/viral approaches
                                                −   Watts and Peretti use network theory to
                                                    increase reach of WOM campaigns




           Helps us avoid thinking about things in a vacuum
            as it takes account of inter-related variables…
            −   … and provides us with counter-intuitive outcomes
                that we may not have reached on our own




                                                                    An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
End of main
presentation


Next: Interesting
discussion points…
▫ This is a very simple 2D
                                                             representation of how I
                                                             roughly visualise
                                                             information
                                                             propagating through a
                                                             network
                                                                It is very simple and
                                                                     doesn’t take into
                                                                     account many
                                                                     concepts
                                                                But it is a visual aid
                                                                     that helps one to start
                                                                     thinking about interesting bits:
                                                                                                Some how


                                                          A network in action
                                                                     information might
                                                                     spread from person to
Source: http://www.funny-games.biz/reaction-effect.html
                                                                     person
                                                            An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
What does a highly “spreadable” idea look like?
    •   1,636,967 views in two months (as at 25 April 2010)
    •   Performed in front of 75,000 people at Coachella Music Festival (California, April 2010)




                                     URL:   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q77YBmtd2Rw




Some interesting bits:

 How ideas spread
   Who spreads ideas?
                             − Watts vs. Gladwell




                                                vs.
                             − Mavens/influencers vs. forest fire
                             − Self-organised criticality
                             − K-shell decomposition?



Some interesting bits:

 How ideas spread
    Which ideas spread?
         − Unpredictable
         − Ideas that “fit”




Some interesting bits:

 How ideas spread
▫ Refers to systems in which many individual agents with
           limited intelligence and information are able to pool
           resources to accomplish a goal beyond the capabilities
           of the individuals… while no single ant knows how toself-interest
                                − e.g.
                                       only focused on build an ant colony
                                − e.g. in mind
           without the bigger picturethe internet has grown organically over time
                                              with no single person directing its growth


                                          −
                                              i.e.   no grand designer
         This is known as self-organisation and/or emergence, and is a property of
          complex networks and non-linear, dynamic systems


Some interesting bits:

Distributed intelligence
                                                             An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ Existence of such behaviour in organisms has many
               implications for social, military and management
               applications and is one of the most active areas of
               research today!
Some interesting bits:

Distributed intelligence diffusion, memes,
                Works best in small-world networks
       Implications for knowledge
                                            An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
URL:       http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozkBd2p2piU




                Ant colony
Some interesting bits:

Distributed intelligence
          Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozkBd2p2piU                                         An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ “On average, the first 5 random re-wirings
                          reduce the average path length of the network by
                          one-half, regardless of the size of the network”
                          [Watts, 2002]*
                                                           Random re-wirings




                          “8”                                                                          “3”
             Long average path length                                              Dramatically reduced average path length



Some interesting bits:

Random re-wirings
          *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002, p.89                       An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
Some interesting bits:

Triadic closure
                                                              A        B

                                                                  C
                        ▫     People are more likely to become acquainted over time when they have something in
                              common
                                i.e. we have a bias towards the familiar, thus reducing the pure randomness of
                                   connections
                                Known as “homophily” - “birds of a feather flock together”
                        ▫     Network connections don’t arise independently of each other…
                                …they are influenced by previous connections
                        ▫     If A knows B…
                                …and B knows C…
                                      …then A is much more likely to know C


          *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002, p.58-61              An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
Some interesting bits:

Triadic closure
                                                              A          B

                                                                  C
              This is why random re-wirings are so effective at reducing the ave. path length…
                −      …they help connect clusters, or ‘cliques’, that might otherwise exist in isolation
              This is the strength of the small-world network:
                −      High clustering and a relatively small amount of random re-wirings allows for a
                       dramatically reduced average path length…
                −      …allowing everyone to connect to everyone else in relatively few steps e.g. “six degrees
                       of separation”




          *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002, p.58-61                An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
Some interesting bits:

Triadic closure
                 •This “birds of a feather flock together” effect was modeled by Watts and Strogatz*
                • They used α (alpha) to represent level of preference to only connect with friends of
                   friends
                • Low α = strong preference to only connect with friends of friends (triadic closures occur,
                   independent clusters)
                • High α = connections chosen at random




         •    Small-world networks exist somewhere around the peak (which represents a phase transition)
              i.e. where clustering is high but average path length is low
                • To the left of the peak, clusters are just starting to join together
                • At the peak, everyone is connected
                • To the right of the peak, connections are lost as wirings become more random

          *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002, p.78-79           An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ Studies conducted by Stanley Milgram beginning
                       in 1967 at Harvard University
                   ▫ Sent packages to randomly selected people in
                       Omaha, Nebraska & Wichita
                   ▫ Asked that they bedelivered to individuals in
                                            Milgram repeated other similar
                                            experiments which also received low
                       Boston, Massachusettscompletion rates
                   ▫ Could only forward package to people they knew
                                          However, experiments on the internet

                                            have since confirmed the number at 6:
                       on a first-name basis − Facebook application:
                   ▫ Only 64 of 296 letters reached path–=4.5destination
                                                   Six Degrees
                                                   average
                                                           their million users;
                                                                  5.73
                   ▫ Average path length of these was around 5.5 or 6
                   ▫ Milgram never used the phrase “six degrees of
Some interesting bits: separation” himself

Six degrees of separation
      Source: Wikipedia, Small world experiment
              Wikipedia, Six degrees of separation   An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ The Kevin Bacon game
                                Aim is to connect all other actors back to Kevin
                                 Bacon
                                Choice of Kevin Bacon is arbitrary – can be applied
                                 to most actors




Some interesting bits:

Six degrees of separation
          *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002       An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
What’s your Erdős number?
                                                                 (Scientific equivalent of The Kevin Bacon Game)




  “Apocalypse” by XKCD

  Alt text for this comic:
  "I wonder if I still have time to go shoot a short film with
  Kevin Bacon?"
  URL: http://xkcd.com/599/




Some interesting bits:
Six degrees of separation
▫ A network is considered “scale-free” if its degree
                        distribution follows a power law
                              i.e. nodes can have an unlimited number of links to
                               them e.g. the internet      This is what a power law
                                                           distribution looks like*
                              A few nodes have many links, while the majority
                               have few links


                                                                  If you take the log of both
                                                                  axes, you should get a
                                                                  straight line*




Some interesting bits:

Scale-free networks & power laws
          *Image source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002   An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ However, very few, if any, networks can display
                        scale-free properties indefinitely
                              At some point, limited resources force a cut-off e.g.
                               limited number of computers in the world
                      ▫ Therefore, generally, scale-free networks only
                                                      Taking the log-log of a
                        display a power law distributionlaw distribution line* area of
                                                      power
                                                               for some
                                                      should show a straight

                        the graph

                                                                  However, in practice, the
                                                                  line is generally only
                                                                  straight for some area of
                                                                  the graph*




Some interesting bits:

Scale-free networks & power laws
          *Image source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002   An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
▫ Power law distributions help us understand
             natural growth (e.g. popularity of brands, trends,
             ideas, politics, religion, etc.)
               Growth in an environment where social influence
                occurs tends to result in a power law distribution
                (think cumulative advantage)
               This comes about due to network behaviour
                   e.g. nodes with more connections are more likely to
                    have even more connections (sounds a lot like…
                    Double Jeopardy!)
                   ▫ This ‘skewing’ of growth patterns is characteristic
Some interesting bits:

Scale-free networks & power laws
                       of small world networks and results in a few large
                       components and many small components
                                           An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
•Software examples…



            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYQovmtO06k&feature=related
Network theory
Network theory
Network theory
•Thanks!
It’s a small world after all 




                                 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYQovmtO06k&feature=related

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Network theory

  • 1. An Introduction to Network Theory Kyle Findlay Kyle.Findlay@tns-global.com R&D Executive TNS Global Brand Equity Centre Presented at the SAMRA 2010 Conference Mount Grace Country House and Spa, Magaliesburg, South Africa, from 2| to 5 June 2010 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay SAMRA 2010
  • 2. An agent/object's actions are affected by the actions of others around it. What is a network? Actions, choices, etc. are not made in isolation i.e. they are contingent on others' actions, choices, etc. An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
  • 3. “A collection of objects connected to each other in some fashion” [Watts, 2002]
  • 4. Social groups  Diseases  Stem cells  The internet  Neural networks (computer & human)  Other cells  Cities  Proteins & genes  Plants Quaking Aspen (one of the largest organisms in the world – these trees represent a single organism with a shared root system) The blogosphere Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002 Proliferation of landlines in London What is a network? Human genome Rabbit cell An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
  • 5. ▫ New paradigm: “real networks represent populations of individual components that are actually doing something” [Watts, 2002]  In other words, networks are dynamic objects that are continually changing  Understanding a network is important because its structure affects the individual components’ behaviour and the behaviour of the system as a whole Networks used to be thought of as systems… structures ▫ Networks are key to understanding non-linear, dynamic fixed  …just like those represented by almost every facet of the universe…  …from the atomic level right through to the cosmic level ▫ The important part is that the components are not acting independently – they are affected by the components around them! ▫ Note: links between component may be physical (e.g. power cable, magnetism) or conceptual (e.g. social connections) What is a network? An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
  • 6. CAUTION: Gratuitous network shots Data networks Air traffic network Telecommunications networks Shipping (sea) networks Source: Britain From Above (http://www.bbc.co.uk/britainfromabove) An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
  • 7. Network thinking can be applied almost anywhere! An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
  • 8. URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PufTeIBNRJ4 Epidemiology (i.e. spread of diseases) e.g. spread of foot & mouth disease in the UK in 2001 over 75 days Where’s it applied? An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
  • 9. URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8C_dnP2fvxk Physics e.g. particle interactions, the structure of the universe Where’s it applied? An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010
  • 10. URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRZ2iEHFgGo URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEoP-XtJueo Engineering e.g. creation of robust infrastructure (e.g. electricity, telecoms), rust formation (natural growth processes similar to diffusion limited aggregation) Where’s it applied? An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 11. Vid not working URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-RoDv7c5ok URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4g930pm8Ms Technology e.g. mapping the online world, making networks resilient in the face of cyber-terrorism, optimising cellular networks, controlling air traffic Where’s it applied? An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 12. URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YadP3w7vkJA URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sp8tLPDMUyg Biology e.g. fish swimming in schools, ant colonies, birds flying in formation, crickets chirping in unison, giant honeybees shimmering Where’s it applied? An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 13. Source: The Human Brain Book by Rita Carter Medicine e.g. cell formation, nervous system, neural networks Where’s it applied? An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 14. URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9n9irapdON4 URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sD2yosZ9qDw And, most interestingly…society e.g. interactions between people (e.g. Facebook; group behaviour) Where’s it applied? An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 15. Some terminology… ▫ Node = individual components of a network e.g. people, power stations, neurons, etc. ▫ Edge = direct link between components (referred to as a dyad in context of social networking An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 16. No connections Some nodes All relevant nodes between nodes connected connected c=0 c = 1/3 c=1 ▫ Tells you how likely a node is to be connected to its neighbours…  …and, importantly, how likely that its neighbours are connected to each other ▫ Put another way, it tells you how close a node and its neighbors are to being a clique where “everybody knows everyone else” Important network features: Clustering co-efficient An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 17. “Unclustered” network “Clustered” network None of Ego’s friends know each other* All of Ego’s friends know each other Important network features: Clustering co-efficient *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 18. ▫ A real-world example: CEOs of Fortune 500 companies  Which companies share directors? Clusters are colour-coded Important network features: Clustering co-efficient Source: http://flickr.com/photos/11242012@N07/1363558436 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 19. ▫ Average path length = the average number of ‘hops’ required to reach any other node in the network ▫ “Six degrees of separation” average path length = 6 Important network features: Average path length An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 20. ▫ The degree of a node is the number of connections (or edges) it has coming in from, and going out to, other nodes 1 2 10 3 9 Node 4 8 7 5 10 connections 6 or “edges” Important network features: Degree distribution An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 21. 3 main types of networks 1. Grid/lattice network 2. Small-world network 3. Random network (structure, order) (a mix of order and randomness) (randomness) β=0 << Level of randomness of links >> β=1 They sit on a continuum based on a few factors: 1 Randomness 2 Clustering 3 Ave path length *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 22. 3 main types of networks: Grid/Lattice network ▫ Simplest form of network with nodes ranged geometrically ▫ Low degree (nodes only connected to closest neighbours) ▫ High clustering ▫ Long average path length (no shortcuts – have to go through all nodes) ▫ Pros: methodical, easy to visualise ▫ Cons: not very good at modeling most real- 1D lattice world networks Molecule Diamond (crystal) lattice Bismuth crystal An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 23. 3 main types of networks: Small world network ▫ Most nodes aren’t neighbours, but they can be reached from every other node by a small number of hops or steps Higher clustering co-efficient than to a few random  i.e. small average path length dueone would expect if connections were made by pure random chance re-wirings − “A small world network, where nodes represent people and edges connect people that know each other, captures the small world phenomenon of strangers being linked by a mutual acquaintance”  Common in nature, including everything from the internet to gene regulatory networks to ecosystems Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small-world_network An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 24. 3 main types of networks: Random network ▫ Lower clustering than small-world networks generally ▫ No “force” or “bias” influencing how links are created between nodes  i.e. probability of creating an edge/link is independent of previous connections An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 25. The big picture Nature ▫ Networks are evident everywhere in nature  ▫ In fact, most natural growth Natural growth = evolutionary, iterative growth, where future growth is constrained by previous growth patterns (referred to as path dependence) processes come about due to − i.e. growth follows the network structure network behaviour An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 26. And market research? ▫ Networks better reflect reality and capture complexity i.e. non-linear dynamics ▫ Network theory helps us to better understand: ?How will word of my brand permeate through ? How will negative publicity about my brand spread and ? Who are the gatekeepers in a community that my target market? be interpreted? most affect the flow of information? ?How is the market likely to fall out in terms of ? What will the non-linear market share impact be of a specific (Double Jeopardy)? change in the market e.g. change in market share, perceptions, etc. An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 27. And market research? ▫ Network theory has been used to understand imagery and market barriers  Adjusting attributes and seeing knock-on effect in network  Using agent-based modeling to model this effect  Useful for word-of-mouth/viral approaches − Watts and Peretti use network theory to increase reach of WOM campaigns  Helps us avoid thinking about things in a vacuum as it takes account of inter-related variables… − … and provides us with counter-intuitive outcomes that we may not have reached on our own An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 28. End of main presentation Next: Interesting discussion points…
  • 29. ▫ This is a very simple 2D representation of how I roughly visualise information propagating through a network  It is very simple and doesn’t take into account many concepts  But it is a visual aid that helps one to start thinking about interesting bits: Some how A network in action information might spread from person to Source: http://www.funny-games.biz/reaction-effect.html person An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 30. What does a highly “spreadable” idea look like? • 1,636,967 views in two months (as at 25 April 2010) • Performed in front of 75,000 people at Coachella Music Festival (California, April 2010) URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q77YBmtd2Rw Some interesting bits: How ideas spread
  • 31. Who spreads ideas? − Watts vs. Gladwell vs. − Mavens/influencers vs. forest fire − Self-organised criticality − K-shell decomposition? Some interesting bits: How ideas spread
  • 32. Which ideas spread? − Unpredictable − Ideas that “fit” Some interesting bits: How ideas spread
  • 33. ▫ Refers to systems in which many individual agents with limited intelligence and information are able to pool resources to accomplish a goal beyond the capabilities of the individuals… while no single ant knows how toself-interest − e.g. only focused on build an ant colony − e.g. in mind without the bigger picturethe internet has grown organically over time with no single person directing its growth − i.e. no grand designer  This is known as self-organisation and/or emergence, and is a property of complex networks and non-linear, dynamic systems Some interesting bits: Distributed intelligence An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 34. ▫ Existence of such behaviour in organisms has many implications for social, military and management applications and is one of the most active areas of research today! Some interesting bits: Distributed intelligence diffusion, memes,  Works best in small-world networks  Implications for knowledge An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 35. URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozkBd2p2piU Ant colony Some interesting bits: Distributed intelligence Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozkBd2p2piU An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 36. ▫ “On average, the first 5 random re-wirings reduce the average path length of the network by one-half, regardless of the size of the network” [Watts, 2002]* Random re-wirings “8” “3” Long average path length Dramatically reduced average path length Some interesting bits: Random re-wirings *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002, p.89 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 37. Some interesting bits: Triadic closure A B C ▫ People are more likely to become acquainted over time when they have something in common  i.e. we have a bias towards the familiar, thus reducing the pure randomness of connections  Known as “homophily” - “birds of a feather flock together” ▫ Network connections don’t arise independently of each other…  …they are influenced by previous connections ▫ If A knows B…  …and B knows C…  …then A is much more likely to know C *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002, p.58-61 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 38. Some interesting bits: Triadic closure A B C  This is why random re-wirings are so effective at reducing the ave. path length… − …they help connect clusters, or ‘cliques’, that might otherwise exist in isolation  This is the strength of the small-world network: − High clustering and a relatively small amount of random re-wirings allows for a dramatically reduced average path length… − …allowing everyone to connect to everyone else in relatively few steps e.g. “six degrees of separation” *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002, p.58-61 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 39. Some interesting bits: Triadic closure •This “birds of a feather flock together” effect was modeled by Watts and Strogatz* • They used α (alpha) to represent level of preference to only connect with friends of friends • Low α = strong preference to only connect with friends of friends (triadic closures occur, independent clusters) • High α = connections chosen at random • Small-world networks exist somewhere around the peak (which represents a phase transition) i.e. where clustering is high but average path length is low • To the left of the peak, clusters are just starting to join together • At the peak, everyone is connected • To the right of the peak, connections are lost as wirings become more random *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002, p.78-79 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 40. ▫ Studies conducted by Stanley Milgram beginning in 1967 at Harvard University ▫ Sent packages to randomly selected people in Omaha, Nebraska & Wichita ▫ Asked that they bedelivered to individuals in Milgram repeated other similar experiments which also received low Boston, Massachusettscompletion rates ▫ Could only forward package to people they knew  However, experiments on the internet have since confirmed the number at 6: on a first-name basis − Facebook application: ▫ Only 64 of 296 letters reached path–=4.5destination Six Degrees average their million users; 5.73 ▫ Average path length of these was around 5.5 or 6 ▫ Milgram never used the phrase “six degrees of Some interesting bits: separation” himself Six degrees of separation Source: Wikipedia, Small world experiment Wikipedia, Six degrees of separation An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 41. ▫ The Kevin Bacon game  Aim is to connect all other actors back to Kevin Bacon  Choice of Kevin Bacon is arbitrary – can be applied to most actors Some interesting bits: Six degrees of separation *Source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 42. What’s your Erdős number? (Scientific equivalent of The Kevin Bacon Game) “Apocalypse” by XKCD Alt text for this comic: "I wonder if I still have time to go shoot a short film with Kevin Bacon?" URL: http://xkcd.com/599/ Some interesting bits: Six degrees of separation
  • 43. ▫ A network is considered “scale-free” if its degree distribution follows a power law  i.e. nodes can have an unlimited number of links to them e.g. the internet This is what a power law distribution looks like*  A few nodes have many links, while the majority have few links If you take the log of both axes, you should get a straight line* Some interesting bits: Scale-free networks & power laws *Image source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 44. ▫ However, very few, if any, networks can display scale-free properties indefinitely  At some point, limited resources force a cut-off e.g. limited number of computers in the world ▫ Therefore, generally, scale-free networks only Taking the log-log of a display a power law distributionlaw distribution line* area of power for some should show a straight the graph However, in practice, the line is generally only straight for some area of the graph* Some interesting bits: Scale-free networks & power laws *Image source: Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2002 An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 45. ▫ Power law distributions help us understand natural growth (e.g. popularity of brands, trends, ideas, politics, religion, etc.)  Growth in an environment where social influence occurs tends to result in a power law distribution (think cumulative advantage)  This comes about due to network behaviour  e.g. nodes with more connections are more likely to have even more connections (sounds a lot like… Double Jeopardy!) ▫ This ‘skewing’ of growth patterns is characteristic Some interesting bits: Scale-free networks & power laws of small world networks and results in a few large components and many small components An Introduction to Network Theory | Kyle Findlay | SAMRA 2010 |
  • 46. •Software examples… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYQovmtO06k&feature=related
  • 50. •Thanks! It’s a small world after all  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYQovmtO06k&feature=related

Editor's Notes

  • #6: New paradigm: “real networks represent populations of individual components that are actually doing something” [Watts, 2002] In other words, networks are dynamic objects that are continually changing Understanding a network is important because its structure affects the individual components’ behaviour and/or the behaviour of the system as a whole Networks are key to understanding non-linear, dynamic systems… … just like those represented by almost every facet of the universe… … from the atomic level right through to the cosmic level The important part is that the components are not acting independently – they are affected by the components around them! Note: links between component may be physical (e.g. power cable, magnetism) or conceptual (e.g. social connections)
  • #17: Duncan Watts and Steven Strogatz introduced the measure in 1998 Tells you how likely a node is to be connected to its neighbours… … and, importantly, how likely that its neighbours are connected to each other Put another way, it tells you how close a node and its neighbors are to being a clique where “everybody knows everyone else”
  • #19: Project Description: In 2006, FAS analyzed the director interlock relationships between Fortune 500 companies in California. We looked at how companies are connected through their board of directors, i.e. Apple and Disney are connected through Steve Jobs since he serves on both boards. Companies that share a lot of directors create denser zones in the network and form clusters. We measured which companies exert the largest influence overall and within each cluster. This reveals compelling new insights into key account management. Legend: The triangles represent Fortune 500 companies in CA. The larger the triangle, the more influential the company is. Companies of the same color belong to the same network cluster. If company A and company B share a director, they are linked by a line. The more directors shared, the thicker the line.