Practices by Proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles with data)
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Dr. Ben Anderson's presentation discusses the implications of water consumption on climate change and offers insights into how data can be used to model and understand water practices. He highlights the challenges associated with gathering reliable data and the importance of recognizing the relationships between household practices, demographics, and water demand. The presentation concludes with suggestions for future research, including data linkage and improved calibration methods.
Practices by Proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles with data)
- 1. Practices by Proxy Climate, Consumption and Water (and troubles with data...) Dr Ben Anderson University of Essex Please cite as: Anderson, B (2012) Practices By Proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water, Paper presented at “Can Climate Change Policies Be Fair?”, Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012, London Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 2. Contents Why? Water 'practices' How? Proxies What? Models Problems? Data Where next? Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 3. Why: Water is (going to be) a problem Energy problems: The water industry currently Carbon cost of `clean' accounts for 5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per water Year - almost one per cent of UK greenhouse gas emissions. Environment Agency 2009 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 4. Why: Water is (going to be) a problem Energy problems: With no Carbon cost of `clean' 'behaviour' change and no water flow controls Supply problems Locally/regionally scarce Climate change? Demand problems 50% used by households Poorly understood Climate change? Source: DEFRA, 2011 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 5. What do we want to know? Practices in which water is implicated Diversity habituation, routine, practical consciou tacit knowledge, tradition Performance often neither fully cons nor reflective Alan Warde, 2005 Why people don’t do what they ‘should’ - Jim Skea, 2011 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 6. What do we want to know? Practices in which water is implicated Diversity Proxies for practices? 'Traces' of water Relationship with climate? Mediation, adaptation Relationship to demand? From practices to litres Image: Eric Shipton, 1951 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 7. Conceptual Framework habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflective Water demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Regulation Education Market ?? ?? Information Supply Persuasion Policy levers & Interventions Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 8. Conceptual Framework Climate change habituation, routine, neither conscious nor reflective Water demand = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Regulation Education Market ?? ?? Information Supply Persuasion Policy levers & Interventions Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 9. How: Expenditures as Proxies Ideal Proxy (LCF 2002-2010) water (l/day) £ water/week Demograp hics Demograp hics Shampoo,soap Fruit & Veg detergents Practices £/week Tea, coffee, Garden juices products Price Price Regional Climate/We ather Attitudes linked Attitudes to survey quarter Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 10. How: Modelling Approach 2005 prices All 39121 households Selection: Metered 11119 Metered only Separate -1387 Combined water & sewerage water & sewerage Seasonal models 20 £4.90 Remaining 9732 15 £4.85 10 £4.80 5 £4.75 0 £4.70 Winter (Dec – Feb) Spring (Mar – May) Summer (Jun – Aug) Autumn (Sep – Nov) Water £/week Mean rainfall (cm) Mean number raindays Mean sunshine Mean temperature hours (/10) Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 11. What: Summary Results Weather (3 year anomly interaction) Climate/W Weather (contemporary interaction) eather Practices Washing machine/dishwasher Long-term illness, age of HRP, gender of HRP, ethnicity of HRP Practices Age distributions, number of persons N cars, n earners, HRP employment, composition Accommodation, number of rooms, tenure Traces of Region, year, income Practices? 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% r sq change in rsq Linear regression (OLS), Wald Table, n = 11,192, final r sq = 27% Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 12. What: Practice 'effects' Traces of Practices? Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 13. What: Weather 'interaction effects' Proxy Spring Summer Main effect Interaction Main effect Interaction Leaf & stem vegetables 0.069 0.905 (unusually hot) Detergents/washing powder 0.066 -0.087 (number of rain days) plants, flowers, seeds, N/s 0.018 fertilisers, insecticides (temperature) Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 14. So... The 'proxies for practices' approach has value But Garden/soils etc Period of water use? Expenditures as proxies? High spend != high volume Recall/response 'error'? 72% reported no spend on soaps, Zeros! shower gels etc in 2010! What to do? A well-known problem in the analysis of expenditures Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 15. Approaches to 'validation' Link 'real' data Model response data Look for 'odd responses' or outliers given model (residuals) Aggregate and compare with other sources Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 16. Linking 'water' Practice based survey of water 'habits' 1800 respondents across South & East England Linked metering data for survey respondents For those who agreed to linkage Of whom 4 are metered And whose water company also agreed (!) who said they weren't! Metered: 769 42% 10% didn't know Agreed to linkage: 282 15% To date we only have 64 records Agreed to linkage and 132 7% metered To date we only have 32 records Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 17. Linking 'water': What we hope for... Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 18. Linking 'water': What we get... Preliminary results with incomplete data, please do not cite! To be refreshed when more data arrives 21 metered respondents who agreed to data linkage AND estimated monthly water bill Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 19. Aggregating 'electricity' Ia Survey: Total LCF 2010 Yorkshire and the Humber DECC West Midlands Wales Sub-regional South West electricity South East statistics North East (aggregated Greater London LSOAs) Eastern East Midlands 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Mean £ per week (LCF, 2010) Mean £ per week (DECC 2010, assume 12p per kwh) Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 20. Aggregating 'electricity' Ib Total Yorkshire and the Humber West Midlands Wales South West 18 South East North East Greater London Eastern Mean £ per week (DECC, 2010, assumes 12p per kwh) East Midlands 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 16 Mean £ per week (EFS, 2010) Mean £ per week (DECC 2010, assume 12p per kwh) R² = 0.3642018973 14 Survey: 12 LCF 2010 10 DECC 8 Sub-regional 6 electricity 4 statistics 2 (aggregated 0 LSOAs) 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 Mean £ per week (LCF, 2010) Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 21. Aggregating 'electricity' IIa Ideally Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households Compare to DECC LSOA data Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 22. Aggregating 'electricity' IIa Ideally Geo-referenced clusters of LCF households Compare to DECC LSOA data Not yet in Secure Data Service... 'Spatial Microsimulation' So: Small Area Estimation East of England LSOA level electricity demand estimates New data please! Census 2001 & LCF 2010 Compare to DECC LSOA data Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 23. Aggregating 'electricity' IIb LSOAs East of England Forest Heath 002A/B c. 73% = Born in the USA! Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 24. Aggregating 'electricity' IIc Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 25. Aggregating 'electricity' IId Spearman rho: Town: 0.6403 Urban: 0.5915 Village: 0.7948 Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 26. So what? We can map: Energy 'poverty' Energy 'inequality' And we can model Potential policy effects Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 27. So what? We can map: Energy 'poverty' Energy 'inequality' And we can model Potential policy effects But also The electricity expenditures may be robust Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 28. Conclusions Thinking about expenditures as proxies for practices Has some value BUT there are problems Zeros? Mis-reporting? Where next? Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 29. Conclusions Thinking about expenditures as proxies for practices Has some value BUT there are problems Zeros? Mis-reporting? Where next? Data linkage? Micro and area level calibration? Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?
- 30. Thank you Dr Ben Anderson benander@essex.ac.uk Sustainable Practices Research Group www.sprg.ac.uk Spatial microsimulation: http://www.scribd.com/collections/3209973/Spatial-microsimulation Royal Statistical Society, July 5th 2012 Workshop: Can climate change policies be fair?