Practices by proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water
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The document discusses the emerging challenges related to water supply, consumption, and potential impacts of climate change on water demand. It emphasizes the complexities concerning demographics, practices, and policy interventions necessary for addressing water scarcity issues by 2050. The document also outlines modeling approaches and future research directions to improve understanding and management of water consumption patterns.
Practices by proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water
- 1. Practices by proxy: Climate, Consumption and Water Dr Ben Anderson Department of Sociology, University of Essex & Lancaster Environment Centre ESRC Sustainable Practices Research Group 20 March 2012
- 2. Practices: Climate, Consumption and Water Why? How? What? Where next?
- 3. Why?
- 4. Water is (going to be) a problem Supply problems: » Locally/regionally scarce » Climate change effects? Energy problems: » ‘Clean’ water costs and ‘clean’ is a moving target Demand problems: » 50% used by households » Drivers not well understood » Climate change effects? Demographic problems » Increasing single person households Source: Environment Agency, 2008
- 5. Water is (going to be) a problem With no ‘behaviour’ change and no flow controls 2050 Source: DEFRA, 2011
- 6. Micro water: Conceptual Framework ‘habits’ Why people don’t do ‘bodily and mental routines’ what they ‘should’ ‘permanent dispositions’ Consumption = f(price + demographics + practices + attitudes) + error Regulation/ Education Market/ ?! ? Information Supply Exhortation Policy levers Climate change
- 7. What is currently unclear… Consumption Price Demographics Practices Attitudes Error Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)
- 8. What is currently unclear… Consumption Price Demographics Practices Attitudes Error Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)
- 9. What is currently unclear… Consumption Price Demographics Practices Attitudes Error Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)
- 10. What is currently unclear… Consumption Price Demographics Practices Attitudes Education Information Exhortation? Error Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)
- 11. What is currently unclear… Consumption Price Demographics Practices Attitudes Error Climate change (uncertainty/things we can’t measure)
- 12. How?
- 13. Data I (Household water demand) Ideal Proxy (EFS 2002-2009) water (l/day) £ water/week Demographics Demographics Shampoo,soap Fruit & Veg detergents Practices £/week Tea, coffee, juices Garden products Price Price Attitudes Attitudes
- 14. Data II (Weather/Climate) MetOffice Regional Weather records Weather data http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ Linked to 25 £5.05 – household government office region £5.00 – Lagged survey month 20 £4.95 £4.90 Observed 15 £4.85 £4.80 – 10 Mean rainfall £4.75 £4.70 –5 Number of rain days £4.65 –0 Mean temperature £4.60 £4.55 – Mean sunshine hours january february march april may june july august october september december november Climate data 3 year anomalies Water £/week Mean rainfall (cm) Mean number raindays Mean sunshine Mean temperature hours (/10)
- 15. Modelling approach 2005 prices £7.00 40.00% Selection: £6.00 35.00% 30.00% £5.00 – Have water meter (England) £4.00 25.00% 20.00% £3.00 15.00% £2.00 10.00% £1.00 5.00% £0.00 0.00% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 No water me- Has water % metered ter meter
- 16. Modelling approach 2005 prices All households 39121 Selection: Metered 11119 – Have water meter (England) Separate water & 1387 – Pay water & sewerage combined sewerage Remaining 9732
- 17. Modelling approach 2005 prices All households 39121 Selection: Metered 11119 – Have water meter (England) Separate water & 1387 – Pay water & sewerage combined sewerage Split sample into ‘seasons’ 20 £4.90 Remaining 9732 15 £4.85 10 £4.80 5 £4.75 0 £4.70 Winter (Dec – Feb) Spring (Mar – May) Summer (Jun – Aug) Autumn (Sep – Nov) Water £/week Mean rainfall (cm) Mean number raindays Mean sunshine Mean temperature hours (/10)
- 18. Modelling approach 2005 prices Selection: Proxy (EFS 2002-2009) – Have water meter (England) – Pay water & sewerage combined £ water/week Model 1 – Demographics & practices, no weather/ Demographics climate Fruit & Veg Shampoo,soap Model 2 by season £/week detergents – includes lagged weather & 'climate' Garden products Tea, coffee, juices Plus controls: Price – Ownership of dishwasher, income, Climate data Weather data region, tenure, number rooms, number of cars, number of earners, Attitudes accommodation type
- 19. What?
- 20. Model 1: Demographics & practices Contributions to model Practices Illness, age, gender & ethnicity of HRP Age composition (adults) Age composition (young people) R2 change in r2 Cars, earners, employment, composition Housing type, rooms, tenure Govt Office Region & Year Washing machine, dishwasher, income 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
- 21. Model 1: Demographic effects N adults 70+ N adults 65-70 N adults 60-65 N adults 45-60 N female adults < 45 N male adults < 45 N single females 16-18 N single males 16-18 N Children 14-16 N Children < 14 -0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2 b
- 22. Model 1: ‘Practices’ effects Contributions to model Plants, flowers, seeds Lawn mowers Garden tools Kitchen gloves/cloths Detergents/washing powder Laundry/Laundrettes Soap/shower gel Mineral/spring water Vegetable juices Fruit juices (incl squash) Coffee Tea Pasta Rice Leaf & stem vegetables Potatoes -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 b
- 23. Model 2: Demographics & practices & weather Contributions to model (all seasons) Weather/climate Practices Illness, age, gender & ethnicity of HRP Age composition (adults) Age composition (young people) R2 change in r2 Cars, earners, employment, composition Housing type, rooms, tenure Govt Office Region Washing machine, dishwasher, income 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
- 24. Model 2: Weather effects Only in Autumn: Unusually hot & dry (rain days, 3 year anom) Unusually hot & dry (rainfall, 3 year anom) Mean temperature (3 year anom) Mean temperature Mean sunshine (3 year anom) Mean sunshine Rain days (3 year anom) Rain days Mean rainfall (3 year anom) Mean rainfall -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 b
- 25. Conclusions The practice proxies approach offers value? The weather data doesn't? Confounding problems? – Expenditures as proxies? – Garden/soil type? – Period of water use? – Included sewerage costs? – Poorly matched and coarse grained weather 'regions'? – Consumer water saving responses to 'dry' weather?
- 26. Where next? • Multilevel model? – Weather data 'clustered' – But is it worth it? • More accurate water bill period? – Closer match to weather • Better geo-coding? – More accurate match to weather, soils, water prices/company 'Practices' Survey Linked to water meter data Small area estimates of demand Census 2001 – 2011
- 27. Where next? • Multilevel model? – Weather data 'clustered' – But is it worth it? • More accurate water bill period? – Closer match to weather • Better geo-coding? – More accurate match to weather, soils, water prices/company 'Practices' Survey Linked to water meter data Small area estimates of demand Census 2001 – 2011 Application to energy demand?
- 28. Thank you! • ESRC Sustainable Practices Research Group • www.sprg.ac.uk/projects-fellowships/patterns-of-water Contact: – Ben Anderson (benander@essex.ac.uk)
Editor's Notes
- #5: Climate change effects on supply side - fewer rain days, heavier rain - can’t capture, supply less predictable so more storage needed Demand side - warmer summers -> more domestic (bathing) & gardening use?
- #14: We can’t directly observe practices - and no data (yet) does this and also collects all the other data we need. The EFS offers a way to do this by proxy £ water expenditure/week n people, age etc Proxies for practices Shampoo, soap, detergents, gardening etc Bottled water Garden products ?