Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future
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This document provides a summary of a lecture by Dr. Larry Smarr on technology-driven disruptions in the near future. Some of the key points discussed include: - The exponential growth of computing power and how technologies like Google, Facebook, and smartphones have scaled to reach billions of users in just a few years. - How advances in networking and high-speed optical cables are enabling new discoveries by connecting instruments, computers, and storage on a massive scale. - Examples of new technologies like remote underwater cameras, genome sequencing, and brain mapping that are generating huge amounts of data and transforming various fields. - Predictions that artificial intelligence, personalized health monitoring, and space exploration will continue to be disrupted in the coming
Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future
- 1. “Technology-Driven Disruptions in the Near Future” Village Viewpoints Lecture Rancho Santa Fe April 24, 2016 Dr. Larry Smarr Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Harry E. Gruber Professor, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
- 2. Calit2 is a Framework for “Living in the Future” of the Digital Transformation of Society The California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Calit2’s Qualcomm Institute @UCSD Calit2@UCI
- 3. If You Are Planning New Applications and Services On a Ten Year Horizon, It Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade… One Decade www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png From One Million to One Billion Users In Less Than 8 Years! www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com DEC 2004
- 4. The Scale of the Web Today: “You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion” • Facebook – One Billion Active Users • YouTube – 4 Billion Hours of Video Watched Each Month • Google – Over One Billion Searches Every Day • Apple – 15 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year • Smartphones – 1 Billion Active Users
- 5. The Global Planetary Computer Powers These Disruptions The Computing Power to Make a Single Google Search Is More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program! http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html
- 6. Forty Years of Computing Gravitational Waves From Colliding Black Holes 40 Years
- 7. From the First Computation of Black Hole Collisions to Detection Saw Supercomputers Increase One Billion-Fold in Speed! 1977 L. Smarr and K. Eppley Gravitational Radiation Computed from an Axisymmetric Black Hole Collision 40 Years 2016 LIGO Consortium Spiral Black Hole Collision MegaFLOPS One Billion MegaFLOPS
- 8. The Data-Intensive Discovery Era Requires High Performance Cyberinfrastructure • Growth of Digital Data is Exponential – “Data Tsunami” • Shared-Internet Optimized for Megabyte-Size Consumer Data Objects • Need Dedicated Optical Network for Gigabyte/Terabyte Science Data Objects Source: SDSC
- 9. Creating a UC San Diego “Big Data Freeway” System Connecting Instruments, Computers, & Storage Phil Papadopoulos, PI Larry Smarr co-PI UCSD’s 30,000 Shared Internet Users Run Over One 10,000 Megabit/sec Fiber We Are Giving that Same Bandwidth to Each Big Data User
- 10. Next Step: The Pacific Research Platform Creates a Regional End-to-End Science-Driven “Big Data Freeway System” NSF CC*DNI Grant $5M 10/2015-10/2020 PI: Larry Smarr, UC San Diego Calit2 Bringing the West Coast Big Data Instruments, Computers, and Storage Into One Room
- 11. Dan Cayan USGS Water Resources Discipline Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego much support from Mary Tyree, Mike Dettinger, Guido Franco and other colleagues NCAR Upgrading to 10Gbps Link from Wyoming and Boulder to CENIC/PRP Sponsors: California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program California DWR, DOE, NSF Planning for climate change in California substantial shifts on top of already high climate variability UCSD Campus Climate Researchers Need to Download Results from NCAR Remote Supercomputer Simulations to Make Regional Climate Change Forecasts
- 12. average summer afternoon temperature average summer afternoon temperature Downscaling Supercomputer Climate Simulations To Provide High Res Predictions for California Over Next 50 Years 12 Source: Hugo Hidalgo, Tapash Das, Mike Dettinger
- 13. Next Generation Telescopes Will Integrate Fiber Optics and Supercomputers On-Line in Five Years, Tracks ~40B Objects, Creates 10M Alerts/Night Within 1 Minute of Observing 2x40Gbps NCSA Supercomputer
- 14. Pacific City Neptune Canada 45°N 47°30’N 130°W 127°30’W N Seattle Portland Axial Volcano NSF’s Ocean Observatory Initiative Has Funded Fiber Optic Sensornets on Seafloor Off Washington San Diego Sea Bottom Electro-optical Cable: 8,000 Volts 10 Gbps Optics Slide Courtesy, John Delaney, UWash
- 15. Being There - Remote Live High Definition Video of Deep Sea Hydrothermal Vents http://novae.ocean.washington.edu/story/Ashes_CAMHD_Live Mushroom Hydrothermal Vent on Axial Seamount 1 Mile Below Sea Level Picture Created From 40 HD Frames 14 Minutes Live Video On-Line Every 3 Hours 15 feet Slide Courtesy, John Delaney, UWash
- 16. Cancer Genomics Hub (UCSC) is Housed in SDSC: Large Data Flows to End Users at UCSC, UCB, UCSF, … 1G 8G Data Source: David Haussler, Brad Smith, UCSC 15G Jan 2016 Cancer Genomics Hub Users are Downloading 30,000 TB per Year GE’s Industrial Internet Generates 10,000 TB per Day! 30,000 TB Per Year
- 17. Example: From One to a Billion Data Points Defining Me - The Exponential Rise in Body Data in Just One Decade Billion: My Full DNA, MRI/CT Images Million: My DNA SNPs, Zeo, FitBit Hundred: My Blood VariablesOne: My WeightWeight Blood Variables SNPs Microbial Genome
- 18. Wireless Monitoring Produced Time Series That Helped Me Improve My Health Since Starting November 3, 2011 Total Distance Tracked 5495 miles = Round Trip San Diego to Bangor, ME Total Vertical Distance Climbed 176,560 ft. = 6x Mt. Everest My Resting Heartrate Fell Elliptical Walking Sunday January 17, 2016 137 42
- 19. I Decided to Track My Internal Biomarkers To Understand My Body’s Dynamics My Quarterly Blood DrawCalit2 64 Megapixel VROOM
- 20. A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes that could lead to disease, cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches could provide continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease and making health care affordable for everyone. ESSAY An Evolution Toward a Programmable Universe By LARRY SMARR Published: December 5, 2011
- 21. AI is Advancing at a Amazing Pace: Deep Learning Algorithms Working on Massive Datasets 1.5 Years! Training on 30M Moves, Then Playing Against Itself
- 22. Deep Learning Will Provide Personalized Assistants to Each of Us Where Personalized Coaching is Now Where Personalized Coaching is Going January 10, 2014
- 23. Large Scale Microscopy of Mammal Brains Reveals Complex Connectivity Neuron Cell Bodies Neuronal Dendritic Overlap Region Source: Rat Cerebellum Image, Mark Ellisman, UCSD
- 24. Reverse Engineering of the Brain Is Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative
- 25. UC San Diego Creates Center for Brain Activity Mapping http://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/feature/uc_san_diego_creates_center_for_brain_activity_mapping From left, Nick Spitzer, Ralph Greenspan, and Terry Sejnowski. Photos by Erik Jepsen/UC San Diego Publications May 16, 2013
- 26. Should We Give Robots Autonomy?
- 27. This Next Decade’s Computing Transition Will Not Be Just About Technology "Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well- argued book." —Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society If our own extinction is a likely, or even possible, outcome of our technological development, shouldn't we proceed with great caution? – Bill Joy Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. – Steven Hawking
- 28. One of the Most Important Arenas For Development and Utilization of Robot Intelligence is Space Exploration
- 29. NASA’s Historic Era of Observation of the Solar System and Beyond
- 30. NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Directorate Earth, Moon, and Mars by 2035
- 31. The Shuttle Program Was Primarily Used to Build The International Space Station Continuous Human Occupation Since November 2000 My Photo of the Last Shuttle Launch Atlantis - July 8, 2011 135 Shuttle Missions Over 11 Years
- 32. American Human Access to Space Has Been Entirely Dependent on Russian Launches Since July 2011 Soyuz Launch TMA-05 on July 15, 2012 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan Delivering U.S., Japanese, and Russian Astronauts to ISS Expedition 32 Soyuz Capsule TMA-15 Landing in Kazakhstan on June 11, 2015 Returning U.S., Italian, and Russian Astronauts from ISS Expedition 42
- 33. Commercial Cargo Launches to Resupply ISS are a Reality Today Orbital Sciences Cygnus 4 Successful, 1 Failure Since Dec. 20, 2013 SpaceX’s Dragon 7 Successful, 1 Failure Since Oct. 8, 2012
- 34. SpaceX Manufacturing Facility is in Hawthorne, CA One Million Square Feet!
- 35. Reuse of First Stage is Key to Bringing Costs Down for Space Launching Space X Failed Landing on Ocean Barge Jan 10, 2015 Space X Successful Landing at Cape Canaveral Dec 21, 2015 Space X Successful Landing on Ocean Barge April 8, 2016
- 36. SpaceX’s Dragon Will Carry Crew to Orbit Next Year Garrett Reisman, SpaceX Director of Crew Operations Pad Abort Test May 6, 2015
- 37. A Manned Boeing CST-100 Is Scheduled to Launch Next Year To Send Crew to ISS as well as Bigelow Inflatable Habitats Image credit: Boeing
- 38. “First flights to Mars? We're hoping to do that in around 2025 ... nine years from now or thereabouts.” –Elon Musk, 2016
- 39. A U.S. Public/Private Partnership is Birthing an Interplanetary Industrial Sector Backed by James Cameron, Larry Page, Peter Diamandis, Richard Branson, et al.