The Collaboration of Disruptive Technology
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This document discusses how disruptive technologies will change the landscape and challenges of balancing innovation with workforce and personal life balance. It provides a future perspective on where technology is headed and how it will impact businesses and the way we work, with the lines between technology, business and family blurring. The session aims to address these issues and implications of an increasingly connected world.
The Collaboration of Disruptive Technology
- 1. 11/3/2011 The Collaboration of Disruptive Technology The Future is about technology and a lot more. It is about how do we use emerging technologies such as new types of mobile platforms, html5, the Cloud redefined, the movement of social into the business world and the rapid fire introductions of new technology? Disruptive technologies will change the landscape even more. How can we ba a ce the ast balance t e fast pace o innovation with bot workforce a d ou o of o at o t both o o ce and our own life ba a ce e balance? This session will provide the audience with a future perspective, not only where technology is headed but how it will impact our businesses and the way we work. The line between all aspects of technology, business, and family is blurring as the trend to bring your own technology to work and connect it to the network accelerates. Where is this future heading? The Collaboration of Disruptive Technology David Smith CEO HBMGInc. dsmith@HBMGINC.com linkedin.com/in/davidsmithaustin 1
- 2. 11/3/2011 Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Challenges in the 21st century Information Safety & Explosion Knowledge Security Economy Accelerating Globalization Change International Partnerships Complex Technologies Finite Diverse Resources Workforce Sustainable Life-Long Development Learning Citizen Engagement 2
- 3. 11/3/2011 Information and Communication Trends • Seamless Interoperability Between Heterogeneous Networks • M bili for All Mobility f • User Centered Content-Based Information Access • Agents Take Over Routine Work • “E” P “E”- Processes f B i for Business and Private Life d P i t Lif • Human Computer Interaction is Turning Into Human Computer Cooperation Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 3
- 4. 11/3/2011 The Limits of Technology Fundamental • The laws of physics • The laws of software • The challenge of algorithms • The difficulty of distribution • The problems of design • The importance of organization • The impact of economics • The influence of politics • The limits of human imagination Human Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 4
- 5. 11/3/2011 The Growth Of Complexity Higher Technical Complexity DOD weapon Embedded system automotive Telecom switch National Air application Commercial Traffic Control compiler System Lower Higher Management Management Complexity Large-scale simulation Complexity Small scientific Enterprise simulation Enterprise information application systems DOD management information system Business spreadsheet Lower Technical Complexity What use could this company make of an electrical toy? With those words, William Orton, president of Western Union, dismissed the newfangled gadget offered to him for $100,000 in 1876. Other leading lights echoed his skepticism. “An interesting novelty,” financier J.P. g y Morgan huffed. 5
- 6. 11/3/2011 Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity Economic & Financial Virtual Worlds Technology Acceleration Cyber Warfare Russia - China Intangible K-12 Science Capital & Math Crisis Pandemic Terrorism Global Talent Explosion Offshore Competition p English as 2nd 3 Billion New Demographics Capitalists Economic Unions Flat Wages Regional Economic End of Moore’s Law Dislocation Disruptors can be: Technology Regulatory Economic Civil Natural Disasters … 6
- 7. 11/3/2011 New Economic Superpowers in 2050? Innovation is Accelerating 7
- 8. 11/3/2011 The “Fat Pipe” Broadband and Online Households 100% 90% ds Percentage of Household 80% Online 70% Households 60% Broadband 50% Households Broadband Access 2008 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc. 8
- 9. 11/3/2011 Growth of Broadband Users 4,000 3,500 3,000 Millions of Users 2,500 Cellular Subscribers 2,000 World Broadband 20 1,500 Broadband Users 1,000 Internet 500 Users 005 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Historical Data Source: ITU Year Source: Technology Futures, Inc. Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 9
- 10. 11/3/2011 From http://geekandpoke.typepad.com Industry Trends Leading to Cloud Computing A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that has: • A user interface that makes the infrastructure underlying the service transparent to the user • Near-zero incremental management costs when additional IT resources are added • A service management platform 2010 2000 Cloud Computing 1998 Software as a Service 1990 • Next-Generation Utility Computing • Network-based Internet computing Grid Computing • Offering computing subscriptions to • Solving large applications • Next-Generation resources as a problems with Data Centers metered service parallel computing • Gained momentum • Introduced in late in 2001 • Made mainstream by 1990s Globus Alliance Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 10
- 11. 11/3/2011 A Crisis of Complexity. The Need for Progress is Clear. 1.5x Explosion of information driving 54% growth in storage shipments every year. 70¢ per $1 70% on average is spent on maintaining current IT infrastructures versus adding new capabilities. 85% idle In distributed computing environments, environments up to 85% of computing capacity sits idle. 70%+ Never recover Of business never recover from a major Howard Levenson, IBM data disaster. Annual Operating Costs Are Out Of Control Physical Spending Server Installed Worldwide IT Spending on Servers, Power, Cooling Base (Millions) US$(B) and Management/Administration $250 50 Power and Cooling Costs 45 4 Server Mgt and Admin Costs $200 New Server Spending 40 35 $150 30 25 $100 20 15 $50 10 5 $0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 IDC 11
- 12. 11/3/2011 The “Cloud Pyramid” Build upon a foundation Layers equate structure Building blocks: Infrastructure, Platforms, Applications Breadth vs. Niche Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc The “Cloud Pyramid” Inversed 1000’s of Cloud Applications currently Handful of Cloud Platforms Elite group of Cloud Infrastructure providers # of Marketplace providers Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 12
- 13. 11/3/2011 Ubiquitous Connectivity 010 © HBMG, Inc For the rest of the world, this is the Internet Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 13
- 14. 11/3/2011 Embeddedness The Invisible Computer EmbeddednessDigital convergence technologies will “form the invisible technical infrastructure for human actionanalogous to the visible infrastructure provided by buildings and cities.” Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization, ubiquitous communication, and advanced materials and sensing devices. t i l d i d i In 2000, 98% of computing devices sold are embedded in products and are not apparent to the product’s user. Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 14
- 15. 11/3/2011 Exposures 1. Increased Dependency on Complex Technologies and Business Processes 2. Steep Decline of Barriers to Trade 3. Speed of Transactions 4. The Death of Distance 5. The Adoption of Advanced Communications 6. Consolidation/Transformation of Traditional Industries 7. The Internet and the Abundance of Information 8. Infrastructure 9. Overcommitted Agencies 10.Changing Social Constructs Threats and Vulnerabilities – What’s at Stake • Critical Infrastructures • Key Resources • New Resources – The Case for Action • Cyber Threats • Insider Threats • External Threats • Cyber Terrorism • Physical Attacks 30 15
- 16. 11/3/2011 Risk Management And Needed Security High mpact Business defines im Unacceptable Risk Impact to business Risk management drives risk to an acceptable level Acceptable Risk Probability of exploit Low High Security engineering defines probability 16
- 17. 11/3/2011 Common Infrastructure for Digital Information Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 17
- 18. 11/3/2011 Characteristics of Agents Agents dynamically adapt Agents coordinate to and learn about and negotiate to achieve their environment common goals Social Intelligent Adaptive Cooperative Personality Information Agents Agents Autonomous Mobile Interoperate Agents are goal directed Agents interoperate Agents move and act on their with humans, other, to where they own performing legacy systems, and are needed tasks on your behalf information sources Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. Autonomic Networks Self-configuring : Adapt Self-healing: automatically to the Discover, diagnose, dynamically changing and react to environments of link and disruptions from node failures. Self- Self- Self- Self- catastrophes and attacks. Configuring Healing Self-optimizing: Monitor Self- Self- Self- Self- Self-protecting: and tune resources Anticipate, detect, automatically during an Optimizing Protecting identify, and protect attack to minimize its against attacks from attack during and in the anywhere (safety ) (safety.) aftermath. 18
- 19. 11/3/2011 Digital Convergence— Drivers for a New Technology Revolution • Business and Social Globalization • “Always-On” Generations y • Virtual Worlds • Universal Access and Exchange of Information • Digitalization • Real Time in Business and Personal • Sustainable • New Lifestyles Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. Convergence is… 1. Interfacing of mission critical systems – Zero time provisioning & de-provisioning – Employees continue to use the tools that they’ve always used – Event correlation & forensics 2. One card solutions for physical security and IT – Leverage investments – Reduced total cost of ownership 3. Software controlled processes – User self-service web portals with e-mail notifications self service e mail – Automation with audit trails (e.g. – compliance ready) – Risk management 19
- 20. 11/3/2011 Convergence reduces costs and risks Security Information & Systems Events Comprehensive Security & Compliance Identity & Access Privileges 20
- 21. 11/3/2011 The Good Old Days for PC For a long time way back in “Ye Olde Days,” traditional IT management pretended that PCs didn’t exist. (Would you like some COBOL with your MVS system?) While they were in “denial,” people bought the PCs they wanted and “administered” them themselves. Productivity increased immensely, at least for a while y y, While that sometimes worked well, other times chaos reigned 41 The Modern Era Today's more closely managed “enterprise” model was the response to that anarchy. At some sites, standardized PC configurations are purchased and tightly locked down and are then centrally administered. 42 21
- 22. 11/3/2011 Does The Following Sound Familiar? Users find mobile devices useful. Some IT folks find mobile devices threatening, or easy to dismiss, or too expensive, or simply irrelevant. Users buy what they want and use them in innovate ways 43 Even as cloud take hold, the IT landscape is changing rapidly… Technology is rapidly being commoditized Businesses are more willing and able to shop for IT services In-house IT infrastructure is increasingly seen as complex and rigid © Harvard Business Review Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 22
- 23. 11/3/2011 The Flip-Flop is Here! Most technology in the hands of consumers today –mobile phones, broadband networking, comp ters net orking computers and printers– all printers ll started out in business applications. • NOW, individual consumers will bring the technology back into the workplace. Motorola Atrix 4G There’s also a laptop dock for the Atrix 4G now… 46 23
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- 27. 11/3/2011 Hierarchy of Needs Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. Collaboration Technologies Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 27
- 28. 11/3/2011 Competing in a Global Business Environment Taylor’s Law Sarnoff’s Law Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law (1910 – 1950s) (1960 - 1980) (1980 - 2000) (2000 - Future) Scientific Management “Human Side” Management Quality Management Era E-Manufacturing Value Chain Value Shop Firm Infrastructure Firm Infrastructure Human Resources Management Human Resources Management Infrastructure Technology Development Support Technology Development Procurement Procurement Problem Finding Problem & Acquisition Solving After- Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing sales Simon’s Problem Solving Model Logistics Logistics & Sales Service Choice Control/ Execution Evaluation Value Created in the Assembly Value Created by Transforming Value Created by Providing Inputs Into Products Solutions, Not Services Value Created By Line (Operations) Self Forming Groups Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Sarnoff’s Law –1960s to mid 1980s For one-way broadcast communication, the value of the network itself rises proportionally to N, the potential number of listeners. Value Chain Firm Infrastructure Human Resources Management Technology Development Value Procurement Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing After Logistics Logistics & Sales Sales- Service Sarnoff Value created by transforming inputs into products N Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 28
- 29. 11/3/2011 Internet Direction Mainframe Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc. Metcalfe’s Law — Mid 1980s to 2000s The value of a network increases exponentially with the number of nodes – N2. A network becomes more useful as more users are connected. Value Shop Firm Infrastructure Human Resources Management Infrastructure Technology Development Support Procurement Metcalfe Problem Value Problem Finding & Acquisition Solving Simon’s Problem Solving Model Choice Sarnoff V Control/ Execution Evaluation Value created by providing solutions, not services N Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 29
- 30. 11/3/2011 Internet Direction Servers Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Reed’s Law — 2001 and into the future Any system that lets users create and maintain groups creates a set of group-forming options that increase exponentially with the number of potential members. And as a function, 2N dominates N2 - which means that even if each individual group-forming option is worth much less than an individual connection, eventually the total set of group-forming options will have far more option value. Value Network Mediating technology facilitates exchange relationships Firm Infrastructure Reed Human Resources Management Value Technology Development Procurement Network Promotion and Contract Management • Invite and select Service Provisioning customers to join Infrastructure network • Establish Establish, Operation • Initialize, maintain and terminate links • Maintain and Metcalfe run physical manage, and terminate contracts • Billing for value received and information network Sarnoff N Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 30
- 31. 11/3/2011 Internet Direction Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Competing in a Global Business Environment Taylor’s Law Sarnoff’s Law Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law (1910 – 1950s) (1960 - 1980) (1980 - 2000) (2000 - Future) Scientific Management “Human Side” Management Quality Management Era E-Manufacturing Value Chain Value Shop Firm Infrastructure Firm Infrastructure Human Resources Management Human Resources Management Infrastructure Technology Development Support Technology Development Procurement Procurement Problem Finding Problem & Acquisition Solving After- Inbound Operations Outbound Marketing sales Logistics Logistics & Sales Service Simon’s Problem Solving Model Choice Control/ Execution Evaluation Value Created in the Assembly Value Created by Transforming Value Created by Providing Value Created By Line (Operations) Inputs Into Products Solutions, Not Services Self Forming Groups •Standardization Parts •Stable Relationships •Lean Manufacturing •Consumer Centric and Processes Design and Delivery •Price Conscious •Shift to Horizontal Structure •Economies of Scale •Flat Corporate •Producer Led Design •Focus on Core Structures •Producer-Centric Competency •Global Companies Design, Mfg., and •Collaborative Virtual •Reliability and Durability y y Delivery •Regionalism Regionalism Networks •Producer Led Design •Vertical Orientation •Productivity •Mass Customization •Multinational Trade •Required inventory •Subsidiaries •Transparency buffers •Market Centric •Plant Replication by •Speed and Agility Design & Delivery •Locally Oriented Region •Global Orientation Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 31
- 32. 11/3/2011 S-Curve for Innovation, Development, and Product Life 100% se Percentage of Installed Bas 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% t∆ t∆ t∆ 0% Time Science & Product Product Life Research Development Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Research/Product Life Cycle Research Development Product Life Introduction Preliminary Active Mature Legacy Obsolete Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 32
- 33. 11/3/2011 Research/Product Life Cycle Research Development Product Life Product Product Concept Business & Product Test Generation Screening Development Marketing Development Marketing— Deployment & Testing Strategy —Alpha Beta Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. Research/Product Life Cycle Research Development Product Life Basic Science Experimental Directed Applied Sand Box Discovery Science Research Research Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 33
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- 37. 11/3/2011 A New Regional Model Emerging Then…. Now…. Region D Region A Region B Manufacturing Region C Research Trials/Testing Services Region G Development Region E Region F Self-Contained Specialized, Networked Regional Clusters Regions Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. From Austin to… Network Emergent Emergent Emergent networks Networks Networks of Emergent Companies Companies Companies Companies Networks Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. 37
- 38. 11/3/2011 Borg — a person who wears a Bluetooth enabled telephone headset, especially when not in use (a reference to the Star Trek aliens who generally have electronic devices on their heads Copyright @2010 HBMG Inc. In Parting: Be Paranoid “Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business world will change.” Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel “Only the Paranoid Survive” Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc. 38
- 39. 11/3/2011 In Parting: Be Paranoid “Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business world will change.” Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel “Only the Paranoid Survive” Copyright @2008 HBMG Inc. 39