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The Forgotten Third –
Using Administrative Data
for Effective Policy
Development
Centre for Employment Research
(CER), University of Westminster
FFT Education Datalab
• At best, education & labour market outcomes of lowest attaining did not
improve from policies introduced since 2011 KS4 cohort, up to pandemic.
• Policies may have helped those amongst ‘Forgotten Third’ closer to GCSE
thresholds, but potential for:
• 2014 Maths/English requirement, to raise academic barriers to
access/progress on technical vocational programmes (GRADE data?).
• RPA essentially mandating ‘more of the same for longer’?
• Some variation in post-16 learning for the lowest attaining (e.g. Functional
Skills courses), but [little clear evidence] on appropriate learning approach for
very low attaining young people.
• RPA: GFE taken on more responsibility for lowest attaining (funding).
Headline Issues: Data, Analysis and Policy
• 50,000-80,000 pupils: Earlier employment orientation & engage with GFE?
• Prior to reforms following Wolf Review, many low attainers had chances to
engage with local FE at KS4, smoothing important educational transition.
• Policy in Scotland since 2011 allows 14-to-18-year-olds to engage in school-
college partnerships.
• Policies with stated aim of improving quality of learning (e.g. NVQs 2015-),
from perspective of lowest attaining served to reduce options.
• TE Policy debate focused on high-quality alternative to the Higher Education
(HE) pathway is symptomatic.
• Policy solutions needed for the lowest attaining differ to those closer to GCSE
thresholds. Failure to recognise this can result in unintended consequences.
Headline Issues: Data, Analysis and Policy
• ‘Fractured’ post-16 learning pathways and employment returns for lowest
attaining:
• Better understanding of the ‘treated’:
• Qualification aims data in ILR admin dataset (post-16 GFE, College Sixth
Form, Other) extensive and challenging.
• Better understanding of the ‘comparison’:
• Transform understanding of the inactive/NEET/Missing (NCCIS+) & WBL.
• Better understand role of ‘Second Chance’ Later Life Learning (age 19+).
[narrowing of focus early in school careers accompanied by life-long learning]
Headline Issues: Data, Analysis and Policy

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The Forgotten Third - Using administrative data for policy development (headline issues)

  • 1. The Forgotten Third – Using Administrative Data for Effective Policy Development Centre for Employment Research (CER), University of Westminster FFT Education Datalab
  • 2. • At best, education & labour market outcomes of lowest attaining did not improve from policies introduced since 2011 KS4 cohort, up to pandemic. • Policies may have helped those amongst ‘Forgotten Third’ closer to GCSE thresholds, but potential for: • 2014 Maths/English requirement, to raise academic barriers to access/progress on technical vocational programmes (GRADE data?). • RPA essentially mandating ‘more of the same for longer’? • Some variation in post-16 learning for the lowest attaining (e.g. Functional Skills courses), but [little clear evidence] on appropriate learning approach for very low attaining young people. • RPA: GFE taken on more responsibility for lowest attaining (funding). Headline Issues: Data, Analysis and Policy
  • 3. • 50,000-80,000 pupils: Earlier employment orientation & engage with GFE? • Prior to reforms following Wolf Review, many low attainers had chances to engage with local FE at KS4, smoothing important educational transition. • Policy in Scotland since 2011 allows 14-to-18-year-olds to engage in school- college partnerships. • Policies with stated aim of improving quality of learning (e.g. NVQs 2015-), from perspective of lowest attaining served to reduce options. • TE Policy debate focused on high-quality alternative to the Higher Education (HE) pathway is symptomatic. • Policy solutions needed for the lowest attaining differ to those closer to GCSE thresholds. Failure to recognise this can result in unintended consequences. Headline Issues: Data, Analysis and Policy
  • 4. • ‘Fractured’ post-16 learning pathways and employment returns for lowest attaining: • Better understanding of the ‘treated’: • Qualification aims data in ILR admin dataset (post-16 GFE, College Sixth Form, Other) extensive and challenging. • Better understanding of the ‘comparison’: • Transform understanding of the inactive/NEET/Missing (NCCIS+) & WBL. • Better understand role of ‘Second Chance’ Later Life Learning (age 19+). [narrowing of focus early in school careers accompanied by life-long learning] Headline Issues: Data, Analysis and Policy