Ibm and innovation overview 20150326 v15 short

Editor's Notes

• #2: Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com
• #8: FSS Storyline: IBM Research was founded 1945 in New York, with the express mission to be famous for science and to create a 10 year technology outlook to make sure that IBM would not be surprised by sudden shifts in technology. Since then we have spread around the globe into 9 labs and about 3000 Researchers worldwide. Over time we changed from this early academic ivory tower of science and we started to operate to a new credo “Being famous for science and vital to IBM”. First we worked with other IBM divisions directly on transferring our technology to products and services. In the 90s we started working with our customers, by applying our technology knowledge to help solve their business problems. Jointly we build prototypes and pilot them in their business. These “First Of A Kind” projects with our clients have lead to about 250 technology demonstrations being on our Industry Solution Lab’s show floor at any given time. Despite all these changes and additions to IBM Research’s role – we are still creating a yearly technology outlook – which is part of IBM’s overall strategy process in which we combine technology trends, business trends as well as social and large scale economic trends. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Research facts (now just a sticky editable in PowerPoint) Stick the following text into the advanced http://www.wordle.net/advanced to create the tag cloud IBM Research: 100:3333FF Innovation that Matters: 80:333366 $6B R&D Budget: 50:999933 10 Labs around the World: 80:333333 Watson: 20:666666 Almaden: 20:666666 Austin: 20:666666 Zurich: 20:666666 Haifa: 20:666666 Delhi: 20:666666 Beijing: 20:666666 Tokyo:20:666666 Brasil:20:666666 3000 Researchers: 75:66FF66 5 Nobel Laureates: 60:33CC33 6 Turing Awards: 55:339933 18 years of Patent Leadership: 70:33FF33 -------------------------------------------------------------------- IBM Research Worldwide IBM researchers are united in our passion to make the world work better— dedicated to creating an impact for our clients and IBM, collaborating to change the way the world works, and discovering the answers to our greatest challenges. Along the way, we benefit from the talent and commitment of research engineers, scientists and technical professionals who rank among the very best in the world. We are Nobel Laureates, prolific inventors and recipients of the world’s highest honors in science and technology. Together, we are IBM Research—a team not only playing a leading role in improving the world today, but charting a smarter future in which we all can thrive. IBM's first research facility, the Watson Scientific Computing Laboratory, opened in a renovated fraternity house near Columbia University in Manhattan in 1945. In 1961, IBM moved its research headquarters to the Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York. The Watson Research Center is located in Westchester County, New York (both the Watson site and the Hawthorne site) and in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Considered "Research Headquarters," the Watson locations in New York conduct broad-ranging research in areas including Physical Science, Computer Science, Systems Technology, Semiconductors, Services Science and Business Analytics, while Cambridge is primarily known for its cutting-edge work in Collaborative User Experience and Visualization. IBM Research – Almaden was dedicated in 1986 and is our focal point for storage, database, and data-related research. Almaden is just a short ride from IBM's development labs in San Jose and Santa Teresa. IBM Research - Austin was launched in 1995 seeking to break new ground in the field of microprocessors - and demonstrate new kinds of interactivity between Research and IBM's development teams. Focus areas include: high performance/low power VLSI design and tools, power aware systems and exploratory architectures, and simulation tools modeling for IBM large systems. IBM Ressearch - Zurich, founded in 1956, has about 210 employees and is noted for its Nobel prizes in 2 areas: superconductivity and scanning tunneling microscopy. It is the focus for our research into communications technology. The token ring communications protocol was invented and developed here--an important innovation and the entree to expanding our business. More recently, Zurich is a center for our nanotechnology efforts. At IBM Research - Haifa; 25 percent of the technical staff have doctorate degrees in computer science, electrical engineering, mathematics, or related fields. Employees are actively involved in teaching at Israeli higher education institutions and supervising post-graduate theses. Many employees have received IBM awards for achievements and excellence. Since it first opened as the IBM Scientific Center in 1972, the IBM Research Lab in Haifa (HRL) has conducted decades of research that has been vital to IBM’s success. R&D projects are being executed today by HRL for IBM labs in the USA, Canada, and Europe, in areas such as storage systems, verification technologies, multimedia, active management, information retrieval, programming environments, optimization technologies, and life sciences. “ IBM Research - Tokyo was established in 1982. Researchers at TRL are active in analytics and optimization, software engineering, middleware, system software, security and compliance, electronic and optical packaging technology, engineering and technology services, text mining and speech technology, and accessibility technology. IBM Research - China opened in Beijing in 1995. The event symbolized IBM's commitment to ushering in a new age of shared technology and partnership for the development of China. China has about 132 employees. CRL is located in Shangdi, in the northwest of Beijing. CRL has been growing steadily. Researchers at CRL are active in multi-modal interactions such as voice and visual, intelligent information management, pervasive computing, e-business technologies and Service computing. An additional research location in China was opened in Shanghai in 2008. IBM Research - India was established in 1998 in Delhi, India. Researchers in IRL work in the areas of distributed computing, software engineering, information management, pervasive computing, bio-infomatics, speech recognition for Indian languages and autonomic computing, among others. In 2005, an additional Research location was opened in Bengaluru. IBM Research - Brasil currently being established in 2010. Expected focus areas: Natural Resources, Events, Devices ----------------------------------------------------- Evolution of Role Our role has evolved to reach our goal and gives an indication of where we are headed. In the early days of Research, we were substantially inwardly focused; we tended to "mind the science" and assume that IBM's developers would pick up the best of our work. That mode of operation had its virtues when we were young -- for one thing, it made us very attractive for the best young scientists, some of whom are now among our senior executives. Nevertheless, we found that moving an idea or even a prototype from "research" to development was not simple, and we eventually agreed with the developers to put in place "joint projects". These are programs in which a substantial part of the work force is researchers working in research sites, but funded by a product group. Working with them are other researchers, funded out of our base budget, and -- most important -- developers, in their own sites. Thus, by establishing links early in the programs, and by starting with a shared vision and a shared agenda, we have been able to greatly smooth the transfer of ideas into development. In the 90s we began a journey we are still on today, of looking outside of IBM to our customers and the world. This journey has been motivated by two important facts: 1) IBM’s customers need and deserve access to the best innovative thinking around, and 2) By working with our customers we expand and challenge our own thinking and can focus on research that matters. We supported this work with initiatives like our First-of-a-Kind program through which S&D and Research sponsor collaborations with our customers to work on cutting edge solutions. Over the next ten years, we continued this journey and taking advantage of the company’s transformation, we increasingly focused on Services. With this came the introduction of IBM Research Services (formerly called On Demand Innovation Services) – where we work with our services brands (Global Technology Services – GTS and Global Business Services – GBS) on client engagements. This both expands our engagement with customers AND improves our understanding of what is needed to deliver services and products. This insight helps us improve the assets we deliver to our brands, making them easier to use, more standard and user friendly. It is also during this period that we have seen the creation of our newest Strategy Area in Research – Research Services. More recently, we are expanding our view still more, with the idea of developing joint-program-like activities with customers. Collaborative partnerships with customers, universities and governments. And, throughout this journey, we have continued to work with leaders in our fields of science from academia and governments and our scientific communities and standards organizations. CAPTION: the foil shows the progress over time from an organization that worked mainly with colleagues in the world of science and technology to one that also worked with other IBM units, to one that works, with customers, and today, lead our customers as well. First of a Kind: Once IBM Research feels a technology has reached a level where practical benefit can be achieved, it partners with a leading-edge client that is prepared to try the technology in a real-world situation. One early example of a highly successful "first of a kind" project was IBM's teaming with New York’s Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. The project resulted in MedSpeak, a specialized speech recognition application for radiologists, whose distinct technical vocabulary made recognition easier. As the technology improved, IBM expanded into legal dictation and then general products, establishing its ViaVoice line as a leader in the speech recognition marketplace. EBO (Emerging Business Opportunities): speaker notes updated 2010-11-29 /jvk
• #12: See: http://www.modha.org/ has latest progress Cognitive Computing - http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/business_analytics/article/cognitive_computing.html Researchers at IBM have been working on a cognitive computing project called Systems of Neuromorphic Adaptive Plastic Scalable Electronics (SyNAPSE). By reproducing the structure and architecture of the brain—the way its elements receive sensory input, connect to each other, adapt these connections, and transmit motor output—the SyNAPSE project models computing systems that emulate the brain's computing efficiency, size and power usage without being programmed. IBM is combining principles from nanoscience, neuroscience and supercomputing as part of a multi-year cognitive computing initiative. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has awarded approximately US$21 million in new funding for phase 2 of the SyNAPSE project. For this project, a world-class, multi-dimensional team has been assembled, consisting of IBM researchers and collaborators from Columbia University; Cornell University; University of California, Merced; and University of Wisconsin-Madison.
• #24: CCAMSS = Cognitive, Cloud, Analytics, Mobile, Social, Secure
• #27: IBM Watson signals the beginning of a new era of computing – the era of cognitive computing. To understand where IBM is heading this decade, watch the video at http://www.ibm.com/watson
• #31: Most people have heard of the IBM brand, and they say IBM makes computers… But “Lenovo purchased IBM's personal computer business and acquired the ThinkPad brand in 2005. “ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThinkPad
• #32: What IBM is really apply IT knowledge and capabilities to help build a Smarter Planet…. One that using computing as a service (cloud computing) to help individuals and institutions make better decisions from systems that are more instrumened, interconnected, and intelligent… IBM is applying Information Technologies, including PowerPC computer chips, PureSystems, Mainframes, Blue Gene supercomputers, in giant cloud computing data centers around the world, grinding away on Big Data, to help apply knowledge to create value for others – businesses and governments around the world… IBM is also one of the largest software companies in the world and has acquired on average one business a month for the last 10 years. IBM has also been the top company for number of patents issues per year for 18 years in a row… And IBM has sponsored the ACM programming competition for over a decade – identifying some of the worlds best programming talent… IBM is also one of the largest service businesses in the world… applying knowledge in the form of 100,000 of skilled professionals geographically distributed in 100 of nations and all the top cities in the world…
• #33: The evolution of service science is to apply service science to create a Smarter Planet. What is smarter planet? A smarter planet is built out of many harmonized smarter systems, systems that are instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent (data, models, and analytics software are used to make better decisions) The world is instrumented meaning everything has computers, cameras, gps or other sensors – cars, stop lights, signs, roads, hospitals, retail stores, rivers, bridges, etc.. The world is getting more and more interconnected. If we could capture the right data and analyze it, we can make our planet smarter. IBM has been working on cleaning up pollution in Galway Bay, Ireland. The marine scientists told the IBMers that the mussels in the water close their shells when something bad enters the water. So IBM put sensors in some of the mussels and connected the sensors to an alert system and visualization system. When a pollutant enters the water, the mussels shut their shells, the sensors sends an alert and water management officials begin to take action to clean it up. Over time, they realize that a particular ship may be coming into the bay every other Tuesday, causing the problem, and they can go after the ship company to not drop pollutants or to find another way to rid of waste. This optimization takes place with other causes of the pollutants.
• #34: Cities are about 2% of the land area, with 50% of the popuoation and 75% of the energy consumption, and 80% of the carbon emissions, according to Carolo Ratti who heads MIT Senseable Cities at MIT Media Lab. Of course, while the buildings and transportation in cities are important – what is really important are the people…. Headline: TED talk: Carlo Ratti (MIT) Architecture that senses and resonds http://www.ted.com/talks/carlo_ratti_architecture_that_senses_and_responds.html
• #38: Individuals with smartphones Drivers in driveless cars Home owners in smart rooms in their smart houses Occupants of smart buildings, sometimes 30 story smart buildings built in just 15 days Patients, doctors, and nurses in smart hospitals and operating rooms Technicians monitoring multiples aspects of from a smarter city intelligent operations centers Small retail businesses taking credit card purchses on their smart phones
• #40: Multilevel nested, networked holistic service systems (HSS) that provision whole service (WS) to the people inside them. WS includes flows (transportation, water, food, energy, communications), development (buildings, retail, finance, health, education), and governance (city, state, nation). What are the largest and smallest service system entities that have the problem of interconnected systems? Holistic Service Systems like nations, states, cities, and universities – are all system of systems dealing with flows, development, and governance. =============\ Nations (~100) States/Provinces (~1000) Cities/Regions (~10,000) Educational Institutions (~100,000) Healthcare Institutions (~100,000) Other Enterprises (~10,000,000) Largest 2000 >50% GDP WW Families/Households (~1B) Persons (~10B) Balance/Improve Quality of Life, generation after generation GDP/Capita Quality of Service Customer Experience Quality of Jobs Employee Experience Quality of Investment-Opportunities Owner Experience Entrepreneurial Experience Sustainability GDP/Energy-Unit % Fossil % Renewable GDP/Mass-Unit % New Inputs % Recycled Inputs
• #41: Why service scientists are interested in universities…. They are in many ways the service system of most central importance to other service systems… Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jsp Analysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM Almaden Dynamic graphy based on Swiss students work: http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html US is still “off the chart” – China projected to be “off the chart” in less than 10 years: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 % Correlating Nation’s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked Universities US is literally “off the chart” – but including US make high correlation even higher: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
• #42: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/student-loan-debt-hell-21-statistics-that-will-make-you-think-twice-about-going-to-college Posted below are 21 statistics about college tuition, student loan debt and the quality of college education in the United States.... #1 Since 1978, the cost of college tuition in the United States has gone up by over 900 percent. #2 In 2010, the average college graduate had accumulated approximately $25,000 in student loan debt by graduation day. #3 Approximately two-thirds of all college students graduate with student loans. #4 Americans have accumulated well over $900 billion in student loan debt. That figure is higher than the total amount of credit card debt in the United States. #5 The typical U.S. college student spends less than 30 hours a week on academics. #6 According to very extensive research detailed in a new book entitled "Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses", 45 percent of U.S. college students exhibit "no significant gains in learning" after two years in college. #7 Today, college students spend approximately 50% less time studying than U.S. college students did just a few decades ago. #8 35% of U.S. college students spend 5 hours or less studying per week. #9 50% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to write more than 20 pages. #10 32% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to read more than 40 pages in a week. #11 U.S. college students spend 24% of their time sleeping, 51% of their time socializing and 7% of their time studying. #12 Federal statistics reveal that only 36 percent of the full-time students who began college in 2001 received a bachelor's degree within four years. #13 Nearly half of all the graduate science students enrolled at colleges and universities in the United States are foreigners. #14 According to the Economic Policy Institute, the unemployment rate for college graduates younger than 25 years old was 9.3 percent in 2010. #15 One-third of all college graduates end up taking jobs that don't even require college degrees. #16 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees. #17 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees. #18 In the United States today, approximately 365,000 cashiers have college degrees. #19 In the United States today, 24.5 percent of all retail salespersons have a college degree. #20 Once they get out into the "real world", 70% of college graduates wish that they had spent more time preparing for the "real world" while they were still in school. #21 Approximately 14 percent of all students that graduate with student loan debt end up defaulting within 3 years of making their first student loan payment. http://www.citytowninfo.com/career-and-education-news/articles/georgetown-university-study-shows-a-bachelors-degree-in-stem-pays-off-11102002 About 65 percent of individuals with bachelor's degrees in STEM subjects commanded greater salaries than those with master's degrees in non-STEM fields, according to a Georgetown press release. Likewise, 47 percent of college graduates with bachelor's degrees in STEM fields earn higher wages than those with doctoral degrees in non-STEM subjects.
• #43: Edu-Impact.Com: Growing Importance of Universities with Large, Growing Endowments Recently visited Yang building at Stanford One of the greenest buildings on the planet But if it does not evolve in 20 years it will not be the greenest building Visited supercomputers – we have two at IBM Almaden – there was a time they were in the top 100 supercomputers in the world – not any more …. So a Moore’s law of buildings is more than cutting waste in half every year, it is also about the amount of time it takes to structural replace the material with newer and more modern materials that provide benefits…
• #44: No wheels on suitcases… in 1988… When thinking about change…. It is useful to think in terms of two generations… What was the world like in 1988 What will the world be like in 2030 MIT Tuition fees 1988 ~10K by 2012 ~40K by 2030 ~100K http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_tuition_in_the_United_States Photo recent college graduate: http://www.prlog.org/11878039-the-secrets-to-hiring-recent-college-graduates-edition.html Photo baby: http://images2.baby-connect.com/images/baby2.gif
• #45: In the future, robots will drive most of the cars – faster, safer, and more economically than people can. Of course, the future is already here, it is just not well distributed. The state of Nevada was the first state to allow self-driving vehicles to legally drive on their roads, as of June 22, 2011. http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2011/06/22/nevada-passes-law-authorizing-driverless-cars/ Headline: Robot Car Helps Blind Man Get a Taco March 29th, 2012 http://www.robotshop.com/blog/robot-car-helps-blind-man-get-a-taco-1564 Self-Driving Car Test – Steve Mahan
• #46: Photo of tap water: http://aquatecuk.wordpress.com/2011/09/27/how-safe-%E2%80%98really%E2%80%99-is-our-tap-water-for-drinking/ Story http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/environment/2011-03-03-1Apurewater03_CV_N.htm
• #47: 3D printed clothing, dresses, shirts, pants, hats, shoes, etc. http://www.dezeen.com/2010/08/11/crystallization-by-iris-van-herpen-daniel-wright-and-mgx-by-materialise/ Imagine cars and other products, being part of local physical supply chains. Manufacturing as a local recycling and assembly service Headline: TEDx Boston, Ryan Chin Urban Mobility (July 28, 2009) http://tedxboston.org/speaker/chin Circular Economy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCRKvDyyHmI Circular Economy for China 10x productivity gains http://www.indigodev.com/Circular1.html
• #48: One possible energy source is water to hydrogen and oxygen (via sun) and then back to water. Photos and stories: http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2011/artificial-leaf-0930.html http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-how-an-artificial-leaf-can-solve-power-crisis/20110329.htm
• #49: 2030 ICT or Information Communication Technology will be really smart phones… http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/09/07/ibms-watson-on-smartphones-will-lead-to-business-analytics-unchained/ IBM does continue to innovate in computing, technology but to build a Smarter Planet – what matters is both the computers and how those computers are used to create value for others. To demonstrate the new of age of Smarter Computing on a Smarter Planet IBM developed a demonstration project of using a the Watson Deep Question-Answering Technology to score higher than the world’s best Jeopardy! players in an exhibition match on television game show Jeopardy! Imagine by 2030 the majority of people on the planet will have a smart phone that is like a cognitive bulldozer, smarter than watson in their pocket. For example, I have given teams of 3 students big data problems that took 3 students 3 months to analyze and report back to me on, that my smart phone will do for me in less than three minutes by 2030. Probably …. What will it mean when nearly everyone has access to smarter computing – this is one thing IBM is investigating the future of information technology on a Smarter Planet. Today just one of IBM Power 7 chips has more transistors that all the transistors in the world when I was born… “Each core is capable of four-way simultaneous multithreading (SMT). The POWER7 has approximately 1.2 billion transistors and is 567 mm2 large fabricated on a 45 nm process.” And runs at between 3-4 Ghz. Puresystems are optimized personal clouds with self service application deployment – a range of businesses from day trading systems to small retail businesses…
• #50: What most people don’t know is IBM worked closed with 8 universities in order to develop Watson….
• #51: In the future, robots will build and recycle whole buildings in a matter of hours. Already at Dongting lake in the Hunan Province in China, the Broad group has used prefab architecture to construct a 30 story building in 15 days (360 hours). When robots are used for construction and recycling, it will be even faster and more cost efficient. The building was stronger, safer, and more energy efficient than previous Broad group hotels. We often think of resiliency as the ability to recover very quickly, after a natural disaster or other external shock to a system. In the future resiliency will be more about rebuilding and recycling quickly to take advantage of newer and better materials, and ways of doing things. The external shocks to the system will more often than not be new innovations, not natural disasters… Headline: 30 stories in 15 days (story on Jan 10th 2012 – built on Dec 31 2011) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/10/30-story-hotel-constructed-in-15-days_n_1197991.html
• #52: Leading Through Connections http://www.ibm.com/ceostudy2012 Infographic http://simpliflying.com/2011/infographic-the-future-of-loyalty-program-will-be-powered-by-social-media/
• #53: Infographic http://www.appsblogger.com/kickstarter-infographic/ http://www.appsblogger.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Kickstarter-Infographic-thumbnail.jpg Science to Deployment http://www.energy.ca.gov/research/buildings/demonstrations.html
• #54: Photo of Da Vinci Surgical Systems http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Da_Vinci_Surgical_System http://www.davincisurgery.com/davinci-surgery/davinci-surgical-system/http://www.rapidtoday.com/future.html 3D Printed Organs http://www.rapidtoday.com/images/bioprinted%20heart.jpg http://www.makerbot.com/blog/2011/03/08/3d-printing-an-organ-live-onstage-at-ted/
• #55: There are many visions of the future – and many show innovations that improve quality of life… by improving the way we interact to co-create value with others… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkHpNnXLB0
• #56: Before we talk about the future of technology…. We should remember rules matter a lot too…. How we design systems matters….. Both how we design the technology & the rules (or institutions we live in) matters a lot… It matters for four key measures of systems – innovativeness, equity, sustainability, and resiliency… Societal performance on these four measures depends on technology (infrastructure), rules (institutions), skills (individuals), and what we value interms of quality of life (information)… Why are these people smiling? Every year NFL (National Football League) teams select the best new college players who indicate they are eligible for the NFL Draft…. Stanford’s quarterback Andrew Luck is one the best from 2011 What’s interesting is the Indianapolis Colts, the team he will play for the next decade, is one of the worst Source: http://www.rgj.com/viewart/20120426/SPORTS/304260061/NFL-draft-Colts-take-Stanford-QB-Andrew-Luck-open-draft http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft
• #57: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444734804578062802698020758.html Where All NFL Teams Are Created Equal After six weeks of the NFL season, there's been one topic dominating the conversation: No team is dominating. The NFL has spent the last two decades touting its parity—the idea that any team can win on any given Sunday (or Monday or Thursday). But this year, parity has truly run wild. Since the NFL moved to its current division format in 2002, no division has ever had all its teams tied this late in the season—until this year. The four AFC East teams all have 3-3 records. Only two teams in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, have winning records. Making one stadium home for both the New York Giants and the New York Jets requires an intricate changeover - from endzone logos, lighting, tee-shirts, banners, artwork - sometimes in just 12 hours. See the tricks used, including how the crew shuffles those 2,000-pound endzone trays. With 'Off Duty' Host Wendy Bounds. But here's the wackiest thing: Through six weeks, 11 of the NFL's 32 teams are 3-3. The Journal asked the statistical gurus of Massey-Peabody Analytics to run a coin-flip simulation, in which they simulated the first six weeks of the NFL season 10,000 times, assuming all teams were exactly the same, but factoring in a slight home-field advantage edge. (Home teams won 57.8% of the time from 1978-2011.) So what would the result be if every NFL team were exactly the same? Odds dictate there would be 10.1 teams with a 3-3 record. In other words, this year's current standings (with 11 3-3 teams) have more parity than a hypothetical league in which every team was of equal strength. "We've had parity before but now what you are seeing is it's squeezing toward the middle more and more," said Houston Texans owner Bob McNair. —Kevin Clark, Michael Salfino
• #58: Image courtesy of my colleague Jean Paul Jacob, at Berkeley So again, wherever I go leaders and citizens want to make sure their region is getting smarter…. Increasing their capacities for knowledge creation and knowledge application to create value for themselves and future generations, more competitively and more sustainably…
• #59: What would it take to have a Moore’s Law for buildings? Or university campuses? Or city infrastructure? In conclusion, a focus on smarter systems and modern service can help cities and universities (along with other industry and government partners) to invest together in sustainable innovations, that both reduces waste and expands capabilities. Perhaps someday we may even discover and equivalent of Moore’s Law for improving service systems… but until that time, I want to say… ================================ Moore’s Law is sustained by investments that improve computational systems according to a roadmap Can we create an investment roadmap that will improve service systems according to a roadmap? GIE (Globally Integrated Enterprise) uses a run-transform-innovate investment model for continuous improvement. Run = use existing knowledge, routine operations and maintenance Transform = use industry best practice knowledge to gain the benefits of known improvements Innovation = create new knowledge that allows improvements in both ends and means of service systems, and the resources they configure. As information about service systems doubles each year, and storage, processing, and bandwidth rise, making globally better decisions is an important opportunity to explore. FYI.... short history of transistors, integrated circuits, and data centers From transistors... 1. The transistor is considered by many to be the greatest technology invention of the 20th Century 2. While the concept of the transistor has been around since the 1920's (Canadian Physicist Julius Edgar Lilienfeld's 1925 Patent - devices that use physical phenomenon of field electronic emissions)... 3. Commercially available individual transistors that could be wired into circuits, invented and commercialized in 1947 & 1948 (Bell Labs Shockley Point Contact/Junction Transistor Theory 1947, Raytheon CK703 first commercially available 1948) To Integrated circuits... 4. However, it was not until the late 1950's and early 1960's that manufacturing process advances and commercial applications began using many of them in integrated circuits (TI, Bell Labs, etc.) - Sept 1958 the first integrated circuit (Jack Kilby TI) To Moore's law.... 5. By 1965 Gordon Moore's (Intel) paper stated the number of transistors on a chip would double about every two years (and exponential increase that has over 40 years of confirmation)... 6. The number of transistors manufactured each year (in 2009) is estimated at 10**18 - 3.9 x 10**6 transistors produced in 1957 (tenth anniversary of first transistor) - abut 10**18 transistors manufactured in 2009 (62th anniversary of first transistor) To data centers and "electricity consumption" .... 7. By 2005, data centers and server farms consume 0.5% of total worldwide electricity production (1% if cooling is included) - 2005 consumption equivalent of seventeen 1000 MW powerplants - electric consumption for data centers doubled from 2000 to 2005 Sources: http://semiconductormuseum.com/HistoricTransistorTimeline_Index.htm http://www.mentor.com/company/industry_keynotes/upload/rhines-globalpress-low-power.pdf http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/3/3/034008/erl8_3_034008.pdf?request-id=7cf4b6e5-498f-4ed4-bfc9-76eda96773ce
• #60: We all know that economists have been reporting on the growth of the service economy for the last century… Over the last two hundred years, the US has shifted from agriculture to manufacturing to service jobs, as dominant. The growth in service jobs parallels the growth of the information economy, and many of the jobs are knowledge-intensive, including finance, health, education, government, B2B, etc. Developed and emerging markets are seeing the same shift – this is a global trend. What was clear was that all developed and emerging market nations where shifting to service economies due to increasing use of technology in manufacturing and agriculture (productivity increases), and increasing use of information technology in traditional service areas, including utilities, building maintenance, retail & hospitality, finance, health, education, and government – making the service sector more knowledge-intensive and requiring more technical skills. As well as more outsourcing, leading to more B2B service. In the back-up slides we introduce the concept of product-service-systems to better understand the way the global economies are evolving… ServicesOLD= Not Natural or Manufactured Products (Negative) ServiceNEW = Applying Knowledge/Resources to Benefit Customers/Stakeholders (Positive) Why does outsourcing the jobs or changing the business model (e.g., leasing, mass-customizaton) cause the category to change? It shouldn’t, modern farms and factories are service systems too… See the following papers… Vargo & Lusch (2004) Evolving to a New Dominant Logic for Marketing. Journal of Marketing. Tien & Berg (2006) On Services Research and Education. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. Two ways the Firm can think about the world: Firm – can I think of things my customers want to own, and how can I make and sell those things. Firm – can I think of ongoing relationships/interactions with my customers and their stakeholders, and how can I establish and continuously improve those interactions in a win-win manner Fact: Service growth in “national economies” All nations are experiencing a macro-economic shift from value in producing physical things (agriculture and goods) to value from apply capabilities for the benefit of others (services). Observation: Service sector is where the job growth is, not only in the US but around the world. Implication: Most science and engineering and management jobs will be in the service sector. For example, Kenneth Smith of H.B.Maynard (one of the oldest and most prestigious industrial engineering consulting firms) said - “Historically, most of our business at H.B. Maynard was manufacturing, today roughly 80% is in the retail sector…” So why do we still train most scientist and engineers for manufacturing age jobs? Could this be part of the reason that in most US engineering schools only 50% of entering engineering students graduate with an engineering degree? The service sector is the fastest growing segment of global economies. In the US, in 1800 90% of people were worked on farms, and today less than 3% of workers are employed in agriculture. Goods, or manufacturing of physical products, peaked in the US in the mid-1950’s and has been decreasing ever since due to automation and off shoring. However, services, especially complex information and business services, as we will see is where the growth is. But the growth in the service sector jobs is not just in the developed countries, it is also happening in the developing countries. In fact, the International Labor Organization, reports that 2006 was the first time in human history that more people worker in the service sector than in agriculture world wide. 40% in service sector, 39.7% in agriculture, and 21.3% in manufacturing, with the growth coming by moving people from agriculture to services – this represents the largest labor force migration in human history. 1970 estimates % of service in labor force (change to 2005/2009 est) China 12 +17 142% India 17 +6 35% US 62 +14 23% Indonesia 29 +10 34% Brazil 41 +25 61% Russia 42 +27 64% Japan 48 +19 45% Nigeria 16 +3 19% Bangledesh 19 +7 37% Germany 45 +19 42%
• #61: What improves quality of life? Service system innovations. Every day we are customers of 13 types of service systems. If any of them fail, we have a “bad day” (Katrina New Orleans) I have been to two service science related conferences recently, one in Japan on Service Design and one in Portugal on Service Marketing… the papers from the proceedings of the conferences mapped onto all of these types of service systems… The numbers in yellow: 61 papers Service Design (Japan) / 75 papers Service Marketing (Portugal) / 78 Papers Service-Oriented Computing (US) Number in yellow Fist number: Service Design Conference, Japan 2nd International Service Innovation Design Conference (ISIDC 2010), Future University Hakodate, Japan Second number Service Marketing Conference, Portugal, AMA SERVSIG at U Porto, Portugal Numbers in yellow: Number of AMA ServSIG 2010 abstracts that study each type of service system… (http://www.servsig2010.org/) Of 132 total abstracts… 10 studies all types of service systems 19 could not be classified In a moment we will look at definitions of quality of life, but for the moment, consider that everyday we all depend on 13 systems to have a relatively high quality of life, and if any one of these systems goes out or stops providing good service, then our quality of life suffers…. Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Information, Buildings, Retail, Banking & Financial Services (like credit cards), Healthcare, Education, and Government at the City, State, and National levels…. Volcanic ash, hurricanes, earthquakes, snow storms, floods are some of the types of natural disasters that impact the operation of these service systems – but human made challenges like budget crises, bank failures, terrorism, wars, etc. can also impact the operation of these 13 all important service systems. Moreover, even when these systems are operating normally – we humans may not be satisfied with the quality of service or the quality of jobs in these systems. We want both the quality of service and the quality of jobs in these systems to get better year over year, ideally, but sometimes, like healthcare and education, the cost of maintaining existing quality levels seems to be a challenge as costs continue to rise… why is that “smarter” or sustainable innovation, which continuously reduces waste, and expands the capabilities of these systems is so hard to achieve? Can we truly achieve smarter systems and modern service? A number of organizations are asking these questions – and before looking at how these questions are being formalized into grand challenge questions for society – let’s look at what an IBM report concluded after surveying about 400 economists…. ==================== Quality of life for the average citizen (voter) depends on the quality of service and quality of jobs in 13 basic systems….. Local progress (from the perspective of the average citizen or voter) can be defined for our purposes as (quality of service & jobs) + returns (the provider, which is really the investor perspective, the risk taker in provisioning the service) + security (the authority or government perspective on the cost of maintaining order, and dealing with rules and rule violations) + smarter (or the first derivative – does all this get better over time – parents often talk about wanting to help create a better world for their children - sustainable innovation, means reducing waste, being good stewards of the planet, and expanding our capabilities to do things better and respond to challenges and outlier events better)…. Without putting too fine a point on it, most of the really important grand challenges in business and society relate to improving quality of life. Quality of life is a function of both quality of service from systems and quality of opportunities (or jobs) in systems. We have identified 13 systems that fit into three major categories – systems that focus on basic things people need, systems that focus on people’s activities and development, and systems that focus on governing. IBM’s Institute for Business Value has identified a $4 trillion challenge that can be addressed by using a system of systems approach. Employment data… 2008 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t02.htm A. 3+0.4+0.5+8.9+1.4+2.0=16.2 B. C.13.1+1.8=14.9 Total 150,932 (100%) Transportation (Transportation and Warehousing 4,505 (3%)) Water & Waste (Utilities 560 (0.4%)) Food & Manufacturing (Mining 717 (0.5%), Manufacturing 13,431 (8.9%), Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2,098 (1.4%)) Energy & Electricity Information (Information 2,997 (2%)) Construction (Construction 7,215 (4.8%)) Retail & Hospitality (Wholesale Trade 5,964 (4.0%), Retail Trade 15,356 (10.2%), Leisure and hospitality 13,459 (8.9%)) Financial & Banking/Business & Consulting (Financial activities 8,146 (5.4%), Professional and business services 17,778 (11.8%), Other services 6,333 (4.2%)) Healthcare (Healthcare and social assistance 15,819 (10.5%) Education (Educational services 3,037 (2%), Self-employed and unpaid family 9,313 (6.2%), Secondary jobs self-employed and unpaid family 1,524 (1.0%)) City Gov State Gov (State and local government 19,735 (13.1%)) Federal Gov (Federal government 2,764 (1.8%))
• #62: There are many opportunities for educational institutions to specialize. Better tuned competence of individuals allows graduates to hit the ground running and better fill roles in business and societal institutions…. Better general education will allow more rapid learning of an arbitrary area of specialization, and create a more flexible labor force… All service systems transform something – perhaps the location, availability, and configuration of materials (flow of things), or perhaps people and what they do (people’s activities), or perhaps the rules of the game, constraints and consequences (governance). How to visualize service science? The systems-disciplines matrix… SSMED or service science, for short, provides a transdisciplinary framework for organizing student learning around 13 systems areas and 13 specialized academic discipline areas. We have already discussed the 13 systems areas, and the three groups (flows, human activity, and governing)… the discipline areas are organized into four areas that deal with stakeholders, resources, change, and value creation. If we have time, I have included some back-up slides that describes service science in the next level of detail. However, to understand the transdisciplinary framework, one just needs to appreciate that discipline areas such as marketing, operations, public policy, strategy, psychology, industrial engineering, computer science, organizational science, economics, statistics, and others can be applied to any of the 13 types of systems. Service science provides a transdisciplinary framework to organize problem sets and exercises that help students in any of these disciplines become better T-shaped professionals, and ready for teamwork on multidisciplinary teams working to improve any type of service system. As existing disciplines graduate more students who are T-shaped, and have exposure to service science, the world becomes better prepared to solve grand challenge problems and create smarter systems that deliver modern service. Especially, where students have had the opportunity to work as part of an urban innovation center that links their university with real-world problems in their urban environment – they will have important experiences to help them contribute to solving grand challenge problems. ================================================ SSMED (Service Science, Management, Engineering and Design) Systems change over their life cycle… what is inside become outside and vice versa In the course of the lifecycle… systems are merged and divested (fusion and fission) systems are insourced and outsourced (leased/contracted relations) systems are input and output (owner ship relations) SSMED standard should ensure people know 13 systems and 13 disciplines/professions (the key is knowing them all to the right level to be able to communicate and problem-solve effectively) Multidisciplinary teams – solve problems that require discipline knowledge Interdisciplinary teams – solve harder problems, because they create new knowledge in between disciplines Transdisciplinary teams – solve very hard problems, because the people know discipline and system knowledge Ross Dawson says “Collaboration drives everything” in his talk about the future of universities… https://deimos.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/BrowsePrivately/griffith.edu.au.3684852440
• #63: Service Thinking Value co-creation and capability co-elevation Digital Design Thinking More capabilities exist in software form Compliance capabilities as well Systems Thinking Balancing productivity & quality Balancing compliance & innovation
• #65: The Up-Skill Cycle People flow through the system of entities… As they flow they are upskilled…. Entities: Mature IBM Business Unit: From mature-business unit Acquired-IBM Business Unit: From IBM “acquired company” business unit University: From university role Venture: From venture that spun off from a university Other: None of the above One possible path A long-time IBMer is in an IBM business unit doing, say “finance” The IBMer’s business unit receives the 5% annual budget cut The IBMer moves to a new IBM acquisition to help the new acquisition adopt/learn IBM finance procedures After that the IBMer moves to a university as an IBMer on Campus The IBMer might work in a department/discipline, in the university incubator, or a university start-up, or even be a student at the university Eventually the IBMer signs up to be pat of a new venture that is spinning off from the university The new venture is aligned with IBM via HW, SW, or other IBM offerings/strategy IBM helps scale up the new venture global IBM might decide to acquire the new venture The IBM in the acquired new venture helps the new venture become a high growth business unit of IBM After the new IBM business unit asymptotes on revenue and profit improves, it has become a mature business unit Now the IBMer is back in a mature business unit, and the cycle repeats… A long-time IBMer is in an IBM business unit doing, say “finance” The IBMer’s business unit receives the 5% annual budget cut Transitions: Self-loop IBMer stays in mature business unit IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a newly acquired IBM acquisition IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a university role IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a new venture that spun off from a university IBMer transitions from mature business unit to an entity not mentioned above (some where else)
• #68: However, it is also arguable that universities are important for resiliency… Source: http://www.nyu.edu/about/leadership-university-administration/office-of-the-president/redirect/speeches-statements/global-network-university-reflection.html
• #70: Permission to re-distribute granted by Jim Spohrer – please request via email (spohrer@us.ibm.com) This talk provided a concise introduction to SSME+D evolving, and applying Service Science to build a Smarter Planet… Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2010) Presentation: SSME+D (for Design) Evolving: Update on Service Science Progress & Directions. Event. Place. Date. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com But I want to end by sharing some relevant quotes… The first you may have seen on TV or heard on the radio – it is from IBM – Instrumented, Interconnected, Intellient – Let’s build a smarter planet (more on this one shortly) Second, If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities, (as we will see cities turn out to be ideal building blocks to get right for a number of reasons) And if we focus on cities, then the quote from the Foundation Metropolitan paints the right picture, cities learning from cities learning from cities… The next is probably the best known quote in the group “think global, act local” (we will revisit this important thought) Since all the major cities of the world have one or more universities, the next quote is of interest “the future is born in universities” And two more well known quotes about the future – the best way to predict the future is to build it, and the future is already here… it is just not evenly distributed. The next quote is an important one for discipline specialists at universities to keep in mind – real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries (so be on guard for myopic solutions that appear too good to be true, they often are!)… Because if we are not careful, today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions… And since we cannot anticipate all risks or quickly resolve them once we notice them, we should probably never forget what HG Wells said - that history is a race between education and catastrophe… In a world of accelerating change, this last statement also serves as a reminder that the pace of real innovation in education is a good target for study in terms of smarter systems and modern service…
• #72: Evolution of Role Our role has evolved to reach our goal and gives an indication of where we are headed. In the early days of Research, we were substantially inwardly focused; we tended to "mind the science" and assume that IBM's developers would pick up the best of our work. That mode of operation had its virtues when we were young -- for one thing, it made us very attractive for the best young scientists, some of whom are now among our senior executives. Nevertheless, we found that moving an idea or even a prototype from "research" to development was not simple, and we eventually agreed with the developers to put in place "joint projects". These are programs in which a substantial part of the work force is researchers working in research sites, but funded by a product group. Working with them are other researchers, funded out of our base budget, and -- most important -- developers, in their own sites. Thus, by establishing links early in the programs, and by starting with a shared vision and a shared agenda, we have been able to greatly smooth the transfer of ideas into development. More recently, we are expanding our view still more, with the idea of developing joint-program-like activities with customers. Now, we leverage multiple disciplines in Research to lead customers and provide them with competitive advantage. Today, about 1/3 of the people in Research are funded by our lines of business as "joint program headcount" and about 2/3 are centrally funded. In the past we were mostly centrally funded CAPTION: the foil shows the progress over time from an organization that worked mainly with colleagues in the world of science and technology to one that also worked with other IBM units, to one that works, with customers, and today, lead our customers as well. First of a Kind: Once IBM Research feels a technology has reached a level where practical benefit can be achieved, it partners with a leading-edge client that is prepared to try the technology in a real-world situation. One early example of a highly successful "first of a kind" project was IBM's teaming with New York’s Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. The project resulted in MedSpeak, a specialized speech recognition application for radiologists, whose distinct technical vocabulary made recognition easier. As the technology improved, IBM expanded into legal dictation and then general products, establishing its ViaVoice line as a leader in the speech recognition marketplace. EBO (Emerging Business Opportunities):update??????/ Following a practical demonstration through a first-of-a-kind project or similar initiative, IBM works with a broader range of clients to examine the common needs for the technology and identify strategies to bring the technology to market. Technologies at the emerging-business-project phase include: "Project WF" — looks for relationships in unstructured information and uses crawler technology to bring back terms and relationships (e.g., learns from statistical analysis that Lou Gerstner is a person, and is related to IBM through the “chairman of the board” relationship), with the aim of improving access to and management of unstructured information Distributed matchmaking — uses innovative algorithms for complex matching of buyers and sellers in e-marketplaces High-volume messaging — examines the future of messaging, including publishing large amounts of dynamically changing content while handling very large peak loads, building on IBM’s experience in managing highly accessed Web sites such as Wimbledon and the U.S. Open tennis tournaments (as published in: http://www.gartner.com/reprints/ibm/102530.html)
• #73: What you may not know is that manufacturing companies are also seeing a growth in service revenue… from financing to maintenance to customer support services, because of the growing complexity of products… IBM has seen its service revenue grow, and lead the growth of IBM in the last two decades. In the last two decades the growth was B2B, in the coming decade it will be B2G service growth – powered in part by shared service across government and cloud computing… Fact: Service growth in “manufacturing” businesses 2008 GTS 40 (39.2) GBS 20 (19.6) SWG 22 (22.1) S&T 20 (19.2) FIN 2 (2.6) Total 103.6B Profit 45.6% 2010 GTS 38.2B GBS 18.2B -> 56.4B HW 18.0B SW 22.5B FIN 2.2B -> 42.7B Source: http://www.fiercecio.com/press-releases/ibm-reports-2010-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-nyse-ibm-q4
• #74: As we think about the future of cities and universities, as an optimist, I see future cities and universities better than they are today… what IBM calls a Smarter Planet is such a vision -- today cities and universities sustain our high quality of living on the planet -- we believe they do an even better job in the future – in future cities and universities, we can all do a better job of applying, creating, and transferring knowledge generation over generation… http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf In a recent survey of young Californians, 90% said internet access was essential for a high quality of life, and 50% said access to a smart phone was essential for a high quality of life. Some would say that the middle-class person today lives better than king’s did a thousand years ago… perhaps that is true in terms of material comforts… and in 1836 Nathan Rothschild the richest many in the British Empire, perhaps the world died of an infected abscess… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Mayer_Rothschild By the time an infected abscess caused his death in 1836, his personal net worth amounted to 0.62% of British national income.
• #75: Synopsis: All the programs fall within the 6 R's of IBM University Programs (IBM UP)... R = Research (Awards: University Relations) R = Readiness (Skills: Academic Initiatives) R = Recruiting (Internships & Jobs: IBM Global Centers) R = Revenue (Solutions: Super-Computers to Asset/Risk Management) R = Responsibility (Volunteers: On Campus IBMers & Smarter Cities Challenge) R = Regions (Startups & Jobs: Smart Camp Challenge) Examples: Our best university relationships are when all 6 R's are active - some examples... NYU Center for Urban Science and Progress: http://cusp.nyu.edu/partners/ OSU Big Data Analytics Center: http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomgroenfeldt/2012/11/29/ibm-and-ohio-state-university-get-analytical/ KIT Karlsruhe Service Research Institute: http://www.ksri.kit.edu/Default.aspx?PageId=273&lang=en IBM University Programs (the 6 R’s of IBM UP) include:1. Research (ibm.com/university/awards)2. Readiness (ibm.com/developerworks/university/academicinitiative/)3. Recruiting (ibm.com/jobs or ibm.com/developerworks/university/students/)4. Revenue (ibm.com/education and ibm.com/systems)5. Responsibility (ibm.com/responsibility, ibm.com/ibm/ondemandcommunity and en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Community_Grid)6. Regions (ibm.com/partnerworld/isv/startup)Local “On Campus IBMers”(where available) help with the above…
• #76: GCG: Wang Ho for Victor Kuo (since 2010) IBM University Programs (IBM UP) has identified 30 major cities/universities around the world to be our focus in 2010. Of course, we work with over 5000 universities world wide, but nevertheless the focus on 30 cities and universities is important to create some exemplar programs and models…. By 2011 another 30 focus cities/universities will be added, and by 2012 we hope to have as many as 300 cities/universities that are partnering in the area of urban sustainable innovation or “Smarter Cities” …. Primary: US: Boston, New York, Los Angeles, Bay Area/SF-SJ, Atlanta, Miami, Pittsburg, DC-Metro-Baltimore, Houston, Phoenix DV: Dublin, Toronto, London, Karlsruhe, Helsinki, Rome, Dubai, Singapore, Seoul, Tokyo, Melbourne, Porto Portugal EM: Mexico City, Rio De Janerio, Cairo, Duodomo/Dar Saleem, Istanbul, Moscow, India, Beijing, Manila, Bangkok Secondary: US: Detroit-AnnArbor, Philadelphia, Seattle, Denver, Cincinatti, Minneapolis, Chicago,Dallas, Rochester, Raleigh DV: Zurich, Calgary, Manchester-Cambridge, Madrid, Sydney, Paris, Johannesburg, Oslo, Riyadh, HongKong, Osaka EM: Saint Petersburg, Mumbai, Ho Chi Minh City, Buenos Aires, Sao Paolo, Quongzhou, Jordan, Shanghai, Bangalore, Lima Tertiary: US: DV: EM: Girija Cheruvu Texas Italy India Lilian NYC, Texas Japan, S. Korea China Dianne Fodell North Carolina (Raleigh), Boston, Pittsburg London, Helsinki Poland, Mexico, Croatia, Central America Transition 11/2010 Charles Rattan Kumar (ASEAN -> Analytics) -> Fionnie HM Goh (Singapore -> ASEAN)
• #84: KPIs = Key Performance Indicators, the measures of service system performance Focus on service system resources, access rights, stakeholders (value propositions), and measures (KPIs) Calculating ROI and Success Rate for an industrial service research group 4 outstanding at $100M each and 11 accomplishments at $10M each = $510M business impact result in 7 years 2 outstanding at $100M each and 9 accomplishments at $10M each = $290M business impact result in 6 years 290M/8x ROI = 36M of base funding for 210 Person-years (36M/210 = $172K/person base funding level) 210 person years over six years = 10,20,40,50,50,40 (in year one there were 10 people, in year two 20 people, in year 3 40 people, etc.) Accomplishments (12 PY, 3-5 person, 2-4 years) = expected 12 PY (4 x 3) Outstanding (24 PY additional, 6-10 persons, 2-4 years) = additional 24 PY (8 x 3) = +24 is 12+24 = 36 So 2 outstandings take 36 (36 PY) and 9 accomplishments 12 (12 PY) = 2 * 36 + 9 x 12 = 72 + 108 = 180 (one could ask if this double counts on outstandings, since it pre-supposes and earlier accomplishment – in fact most accomplishments have more than $100M impact, so this is OK). 180/210 = 0.86 = 86% success rate (a big debate in research organizations is what should the success rate be – 100% success rate probably implies you are not taking enough risk, so learning/returns will not be maximized long-term) (put another way – solving really, really hard problems is not 100% guaranteed, but if they are solved they can pay enormous dividends; sometimes more so than simpler problems to solve) CBM = Component Business Model (Models of over 70 industries, decomposed into 100-200 business components/service systems, with associated KPIs) IDG = Intelligent Document Gateway (Process improvement workbench - process automation, business rules engines, authoring capability, document scan capability, etc.) SDM = Solution Design Manager (complex service offerings delivered globally are hard to describe, cost, price, and allow teams to collaboratively develop and iterate) BIW = Business Insight Workbench (unstructured text analytics, data mining, structured analytics, automatic taxonomy, trend analysis, co-occurrence statistics, etc.) COBRA = Corporate Brand Reputation Analysis (data mine blogs and customer service data, etc. for insights) SIMPLE = Patent Analytics (data mine patents and technical publications, etc. for insights) IoFT = Impact of Future Technologies (future studies method to identify signposts, and data mine for trends, etc.)