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Learning to Let Go - Cognitive Bias and
                                 Sunk Cost


                     Dominica DeGrandis
                            @dominicad
Devopsdays
Mountain View 2012
#LSSC12




http://vimeo.com/channels/339107
 
                             	
  
If	
  I	
  could	
  go	
  back	
  and	
  start	
  over,	
  
            would	
  I	
  s5ll	
  do	
  it	
  at	
  all?	
  
                             	
  
                             	
  
Looking	
  at	
  “abandoned	
  work”	
  hit	
  
                   a	
  nerve.	
  
Devopsdays Mountain View 2012 Ignite on Letting Go
waste
Every	
  idea	
  coming	
  down	
  the	
  pipe	
  
            won’t	
  make	
  it.	
  

         analyze dev	
  	
   test       monitor
  idea                                            maintain
              design build          deliver
Devopsdays Mountain View 2012 Ignite on Letting Go
Sunk	
  cost	
  fallacy	
  
                         	
  
  Studies	
  going	
  back	
  to	
  the	
  1970s	
  
show	
  we	
  don’t	
  equate	
  loss	
  and	
  gain.	
  
Sunk	
  Cost	
  Fallacy	
  
                           	
  
Aversion	
  to	
  loss	
  leads	
  us	
  to	
  want	
  to	
  
   hang	
  on	
  to	
  things	
  that	
  we’ve	
  
       invested	
  heavily	
  in.	
  	
  
“When	
  it	
  came	
  5me	
  for	
  us	
  to	
  change	
  
                 company	
  direc5ons,	
  I	
  had	
  to	
  be	
  
dragged	
  kicking	
  and	
  screaming.	
  I	
  did	
  
  not	
  want	
  to	
  let	
  go	
  of	
  all	
  that	
  code.	
  “	
  
                                                                                                                     	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  -­‐Eric	
  Ries	
  
Showing	
  abandoned	
  work	
  




 Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
Showing	
  abandoned	
  work	
  




 Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
Don’t waste the waste!	
  




Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
How	
  will	
  we	
  know?	
  
120




100

                                               On hold

                                               Proposed
 80                                            Prioritised

                                               Ready for Dev

                                               Dev
 60                                            Testing

                                               Ready for Release

                                               Released
 40
                                               Implemented




 20




  0




      Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
Showing	
  abandoned	
  work	
  




 Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
Deployed,	
  but	
  never	
  used	
  
120




100

                                                         On hold

                                                         Proposed
 80                                                      Prioritised

                                                         Ready for Dev

                                                         Dev
 60                                                      Testing

                                                         Ready for Release

                                                         Released
 40
                                                         Implemented




 20




  0




                Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
What’s the point?

1.  Visualizing abandoned work is a good thing.
    it provokes discussions that pave the way for
    improvements.

2.  Learn from sunk costs and move on.
Sources
	
  
Kanban,	
  Successful	
  Evolu1onary	
  Change	
  for	
  Your	
  Technology	
  Business,	
  2010	
  
David	
  J.	
  Anderson,	
  	
  @agilemanager	
  
hSp://agilemanagement.net/index.php/kanbanbook/	
  
	
  
Startup	
  Lessons	
  Learned.	
  Throwing	
  away	
  working	
  code,	
  	
  Eric	
  Ries,	
  	
  2009	
  @ericries	
  
hSp://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009/02/throwing-­‐away-­‐working-­‐code.html	
  
	
  	
  
You	
  Are	
  Not	
  So	
  Smart.	
  The	
  Sunk	
  Cost	
  Fallacy,	
  David	
  McRaney	
  	
  @davidmcraney	
  
hSp://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-­‐sunk-­‐cost-­‐fallacy/	
  
	
  
Don’t	
  Waste	
  the	
  Waste,	
  Mike	
  Burrows,	
  2012	
  @asplake	
  
hSp://posi5veincline.com/	
  
	
  
The	
  Framing	
  of	
  Decisions	
  and	
  the	
  Psychology	
  of	
  Choice	
  ,	
  	
  
Amos	
  Tversky;	
  Daniel	
  Kahneman	
  	
  
Science,	
  New	
  Series,	
  Vol.	
  211,	
  No.	
  4481.	
  (Jan.	
  30,	
  1981),	
  pp.	
  453-­‐458	
  
hSp://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1685855?uid=3739656&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=56280093313	
  
	
  
	
  	
  
Learning to Let Go - Cognitive Bias and
                                 Sunk Cost


                     Dominica DeGrandis
                            @dominicad
Devopsdays
Mountain View 2012

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Devopsdays Mountain View 2012 Ignite on Letting Go

  • 1. Learning to Let Go - Cognitive Bias and Sunk Cost Dominica DeGrandis @dominicad Devopsdays Mountain View 2012
  • 3.     If  I  could  go  back  and  start  over,   would  I  s5ll  do  it  at  all?      
  • 4. Looking  at  “abandoned  work”  hit   a  nerve.  
  • 7. Every  idea  coming  down  the  pipe   won’t  make  it.   analyze dev     test monitor idea maintain design build deliver
  • 9. Sunk  cost  fallacy     Studies  going  back  to  the  1970s   show  we  don’t  equate  loss  and  gain.  
  • 10. Sunk  Cost  Fallacy     Aversion  to  loss  leads  us  to  want  to   hang  on  to  things  that  we’ve   invested  heavily  in.    
  • 11. “When  it  came  5me  for  us  to  change   company  direc5ons,  I  had  to  be   dragged  kicking  and  screaming.  I  did   not  want  to  let  go  of  all  that  code.  “                                                                                                                  -­‐Eric  Ries  
  • 12. Showing  abandoned  work   Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
  • 13. Showing  abandoned  work   Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
  • 14. Don’t waste the waste!   Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
  • 15. How  will  we  know?   120 100 On hold Proposed 80 Prioritised Ready for Dev Dev 60 Testing Ready for Release Released 40 Implemented 20 0 Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
  • 16. Showing  abandoned  work   Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
  • 17. Deployed,  but  never  used   120 100 On hold Proposed 80 Prioritised Ready for Dev Dev 60 Testing Ready for Release Released 40 Implemented 20 0 Attribution to Mike Burrows - @asplake
  • 18. What’s the point? 1.  Visualizing abandoned work is a good thing. it provokes discussions that pave the way for improvements. 2.  Learn from sunk costs and move on.
  • 19. Sources   Kanban,  Successful  Evolu1onary  Change  for  Your  Technology  Business,  2010   David  J.  Anderson,    @agilemanager   hSp://agilemanagement.net/index.php/kanbanbook/     Startup  Lessons  Learned.  Throwing  away  working  code,    Eric  Ries,    2009  @ericries   hSp://www.startuplessonslearned.com/2009/02/throwing-­‐away-­‐working-­‐code.html       You  Are  Not  So  Smart.  The  Sunk  Cost  Fallacy,  David  McRaney    @davidmcraney   hSp://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-­‐sunk-­‐cost-­‐fallacy/     Don’t  Waste  the  Waste,  Mike  Burrows,  2012  @asplake   hSp://posi5veincline.com/     The  Framing  of  Decisions  and  the  Psychology  of  Choice  ,     Amos  Tversky;  Daniel  Kahneman     Science,  New  Series,  Vol.  211,  No.  4481.  (Jan.  30,  1981),  pp.  453-­‐458   hSp://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1685855?uid=3739656&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=56280093313        
  • 20. Learning to Let Go - Cognitive Bias and Sunk Cost Dominica DeGrandis @dominicad Devopsdays Mountain View 2012