Future Internet Strategy in Taiwan
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The document discusses future internet strategy in Taiwan using the Delphi method. It outlines the Delphi method process which involves multiple rounds of surveys to experts to build consensus on important issues. The document then discusses specific policies related to future internet research that were evaluated, including architecture research, advanced applications research, experimental networks, governance, and economics. Results from the Delphi rounds show a consensus among experts that architecture research and advanced applications research were the most important policies.
Future Internet Strategy in Taiwan
- 1. Future Internet Strategy in Taiwan Dr. Kenny Huang TWNIC BoD; APNIC EC Future Internet Policy Program Leader huangk@mindext.com 1
- 2. Issue: Internet Hourglass Model Everything on IP Robust to changes Fragile to changes IP on Everything David Talbot. (2005). The Internet is Broken. MIT Technology Review. “The Net’s basic flaws cost firms billions, impede innovation, and threaten national security. It’s time for a clean-slate approach” 2
- 3. International Foresight Research Comparison Source: PRESS (2008) 3
- 4. Foresight Research Deliveries Source: PRESS (2008) 4
- 5. Japan Science & Technology Base Plan Foresight Methodology Source: NISTEP (2003) 5
- 6. Purpose of the research What policies should be recommended when deciding to engage Future Internet research in Taiwan How much agreement is there among invited experts about the relative importance of these proposed Future Internet policies Which of the proposed policies are not considered important by the invited experts 6
- 7. Method of Strategic Planning EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT Introduction Goals that meet the real needs of Citizens and Businesses Vision Recent and urgent tasks Strategy Strategic Goals Цели Objectives Action of state Цели Tasks administration in order to fulfill the Action Plan Цели Metrics Цели Stages strategic goals Цели Projects Цели Phases 7
- 8. Why Delphi Method The research required a methodology that would identify the variables and aid participants in ranking and selecting important variables. Because consensus about the relative importance of variables was an objective, the Delphi technique was selected. It parallels the methods employed in previous IT policy and general consensus research. Brancheau, “Key issues in information systems management: A Delphi Study of IS Executives and Corporate general Managers”, Working Paper Series-MISRC-WP-87-09, University of Minnesota. Dickson, “Key information Issues for the 1980’s”, MIS Quarterly Vol 8, No 3, 1984, pp135- 159 8
- 9. Flow Chart for Delphi method Start Problem Definition Select panel members based on the expertise required Prepare and distribute questionnaire Analyze questionnaire response Yes Has a consensus been reached No Provide requested information and tabulated response Develop final report 9
- 10. AHP: Analytical Hierarchy Process GOAL CRITERIA ALTERNATIVES •Founded by Saaty in 1980. •It is a popular and widely used method for multi-criteria decision making. •Allows the use of qualitative, as well as quantitative criteria in evaluation. •Wide range of applications exists 10
- 11. Policy & Strategy Deliberation of Future Internet (FI) Policy Deliberation Explanation Literature References from the Literature Architecture research Research on architectural elements FIND, FIRE, AKARI Advanced apps research Research on advanced services/apps CNGI, GEANT, AKARI FI Forum Forum for FI information sharing AsiaFI, FIA, FIF Advanced R&E network Advanced R&E infrastructure development Internet2, APAN, GEANT FI experimental research Experiment and testbed operation GENI,GEANT, CNGI FI governance research Research on Future Internet governance FP7, FIRE, FIF FI social and policy research Research on social and politic impact FP7, FIRE FI Economic research Research on economic impact FP7, FIRE Strategy Deliberation Explanation Literature References from the Literature Clean Slate Approach TCP/IP architectural redesign FIND, FIRE, AKARI Incremental Approach Improve things based on TCP/IP architecture CNGI 11
- 12. Ranking Data by Delphi Round Round 1 Round 2 Level of Importance Rank Policy Ranking Mean Std % Mean Std % Rank Dev Top 3 Rank Dev Top 3 IMPORTANT 1 Architecture research 2.69 1.70 61.5 2 Advanced apps research 3.31 1.65 53.8 MODERATELY IMPORTANT 3 FI Forum 3.17 2.41 53.8 4 Advanced R&E network 3.25 1.48 46.2 5 FI experimental research 3.31 1.75 76.9 UNIMPORTANT 6 FI governance research 5.67 1.78 7.7 7 FI social and policy research 5.83 2.37 15.4 8 FI Economics research 5.50 1.83 7.7 12
- 13. Delphi Mean Rank 6 7 6 8 5 1 Network architecture research 2 Advanced services/apps research Mean Rank 3 FI Forum 4 4 Advanced R&E network 5 Network experiment research 5 2 4 6 FI governance research 3 3 7 FI social & policy research 1 8 FI economics research 2 ROUND1 ROUND2 13
- 14. Delphi Percentage in Top Three 65 1 55 3 2 Percentage in Top Three 1 Network architecture research 45 4 2 Advanced services/apps research 3 FI Forum 35 4 Advanced R&E network 5 Network experiment research 25 6 FI governance research 7 FI social & policy research 15 7 8 FI economics research 8 6 5 ROUND1 ROUND2 14
- 15. Delphi Standard Deviation 2.4 3 7 1 Network architecture research Standard Deviation 2.2 2 Advanced services/apps research 3 FI Forum 2 4 Advanced R&E network 8 5 Network experiment research 1.8 6 5 6 FI governance research 1 2 7 FI social & policy research 1.6 8 FI economics research 4 1.4 ROUND1 ROUND2 15
- 16. Nonparametric Statistics Friedman Test Item Gov Research Business Ri Li 1 Architecture research 2 2 1 5 5 2 Advanced apps research 4 1 2 7 14 3 FI Forum 1 5 2 8 24 4 Advanced R&E network 3 4 2 9 27 5 FI experimental research 5 3 5 13 65 6 FI governance research 7 6 6 19 114 7 FI social and policy research 7 7 7 21 147 8 FI Economics research 6 8 7 21 168 16
- 17. Friedman Test Computation H0: There is no difference between the proposed policies H1: There is a difference between the proposed policies α = 0.05 df = 7 Critical Value X2 (0.95, 7)=14.0671 If X2 is greater than 14.0671: Reject the null hypothesis After computation, X2 =9.61 X2 is not greater than 14.0671: do not reject the null hypothesis Conclusion: There is no statistical difference among the proposed policies 17
- 18. Weight-Ranking from Government Government Item 1 2 3 Weight Rank FI Forum 1 1 3 22 1 FI architecture research 1 4 1 21 2 FI Advanced R&E network 2 2 4 19 3 FI Advanced apps research 3 5 2 17 4 FI experimental research 3 3 6 15 5 FI economics research 4 8 5 10 6 FI social & policy research 4 7 7 9 7 FI governance research 4 6 8 9 7 18
- 19. 19 15.25 Mean 39.1 FI governance Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Gov) FI governance 9 research research 90% confidence level , r= 3.594 39.1 FI social & policy 9 research FI social & policy research Low Priority 27.6 FI economics 10 research FI economics research FI experiment 0.1 15 research FI experiment research FI advanced apps Median 3.1 17 research FI advanced apps research N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=5.37 14.1 Advanced R&E 19 Advanced R&E network network 33.1 FI architecture 21 FI architecture research research 18.84 >= r >=11.66 High Priority 45.6 22 FI forum FI forum weight Sj2 Government
- 20. Weight Ranking from Research Community Research Item 1 2 3 4 5 Weight Rank FI advanced apps research 3 3 1 1 5 32 1 FI architecture research 2 2 4 5 1 31 2 FI experiment research 4 5 2 2 5 27 3 Advanced R&E network 4 3 4 1 24 4 FI forum 1 8 1 5 21 5 FI governance research 6 7 3 4 16 6 FI social & policy research 8 6 7 1 14 7 FI economics research 7 5 6 5 13 8 20
- 21. 21 22.25 Mean Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Research) FI economics research 85.6 FI economics 13 research 90% confidence level, r = 5.009 FI social & policy 68.1 FI social & policy research Low Priority 14 research FI governance research 39.1 FI governance 16 research FI forum 1.6 21 FI forum Advanced R&E Advanced R&E network 3.1 24 network N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=7.48 Median FI experiment research 22.6 FI experiment 27 research FI architecture 76.6 FI architecture research 31 research High Priority 27.26 >= r >=17.24 FI advanced apps 95.1 FI advanced apps research 32 research weight Sj2 Research community
- 22. Weight Ranking from Business Business Item 1 2 3 4 5 Weight Rank FI architecture research 1 5 1 5 3 30 1 FI advanced apps research 2 4 5 6 1 27 2 Advanced R&E network 3 3 3 7 2 27 2 FI forum 4 1 6 3 4 27 2 FI experiment research 6 2 2 4 5 26 5 FI governance research 7 5 7 1 6 19 6 FI social & policy research 8 5 8 2 7 15 7 FI economics research 5 5 4 8 8 15 7 22
- 23. 23 23.25 Mean Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (Business) 68.1 FI economics research 15 FI economics research 90% confidence level, r = 3.999 FI social & policy 68.1 FI social & policy 15 research research Low Priority FI governance 18.1 FI governance 19 research research FI experiment FI experiment 7.6 26 research research Median 14.1 FI Forum 27 FI Forum N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=5.97 Advanced R&E 14.1 Advanced R&E 27 network network FI advanced apps 14.1 FI advanced apps 27 research High Priority research 27.25 >= r >=19.25 FI architecture 45.6 FI architecture 30 research research weight Sj2 Business
- 24. Delphi Weight Ranking for All Participants weigh Item G1 G2 G3 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Rank t FI architecture research 1 4 1 2 2 4 5 1 1 5 1 5 3 82 1 FI advanced apps 3 5 2 3 3 1 1 5 2 4 5 6 1 76 2 research FI forum 1 1 3 1 8 1 5 4 1 6 3 4 70 3 Advanced R&E network 2 2 4 4 3 4 1 3 3 3 7 2 70 4 FI experiment research 3 3 6 4 5 2 2 5 6 2 2 4 5 68 5 FI governance research 4 6 8 6 7 3 4 7 5 7 1 6 44 6 FI social & policy 4 7 7 8 6 7 1 8 5 8 2 7 38 7 research FI economics research 4 8 5 7 5 6 5 5 5 4 8 8 38 8 24
- 25. 25 60.75 Mean 217.6 FI economics FI economics 90% confidence level, r = 11.9383 38 Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test (all) research research 217.6 FI social & policy FI social & policy 38 research research Low Priority FI governance 430.6 FI governance 44 research research 2002.6 FI experiment FI experiment 68 research research 2185.6 Advanced R&E Advanced R&E 70 network network N=8, V=7, T(0.95,7)=1.8946 s=17.82 Median 2185.6 FI forum 70 FI forum 2782.6 FI advanced apps FI advanced apps 76 research High Priority research 72.69 >= r >= 48.81 3451.6 FI architecture FI architecture 82 research research weight Sj2 All participants
- 26. AHP Computational Result Taiwan Future Internet Strategy 0.495 Clean Slate 0.505 Incremental Approach Inconsistency=0.00 with 0 missing judgments 26
- 27. Delphi Methodology – Nonparametric Statistics There is no statistical difference Friedman among the Test policies Nonparametric Statistics Prioritize all policy item Jackknife Test 27
- 28. Policy Recommendations Weight Ranking 85 80 75 70 65 60 Nonparametric Statistics Jackknife Test 28
- 29. Government Role & Responsibility in High-Tech Policy H Strengthen Develop fair industrial IMPORTANCE IMPORTANCE competition Risk mitigation competitive environment advantage M Deprioritize and source alternative technologies L L M H RISK 29
- 30. Thank You 30