Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation
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This document discusses the need to develop climate forecasts and scenarios for timescales of 1-20 years to help with policy, planning and investment decisions. It proposes merging seasonal forecasting methods with climate change projections to provide seamless climate information on decadal scales. Example research questions focus on determining where and how decadal predictions can inform agriculture and assessing appropriate adaptation methods. Filling the information gap on decadal timescales could support climate-resilient development and provide critical data for researchers and stakeholders in agriculture and food security planning.
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Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation
- 1. Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation
- 2. Why?Climate risk management is currently focused on timescales of < 1 year and > 20 yearsMany policy, planning and investment decisions occur on timescales of 1-20 yearsClimate change is accelerating – emerging risks and variabilityNeed to merge adaptation and risk reduction on these “real world” time scalesWhat?Development of “seamless” climate forecasts and scenarios for 1 -> 10 -> 20 year timescalesMarrying of seasonal and climate change methods, tools and communitiesMerging of data sources – observational, decadal predictions, centennial projections, downscalingA focus of extreme eventsClose integration with users in agriculture, water, food security, at multiple levels
- 3. Example Research QuestionsWhere, if anywhere, are decadal predictions useful – in which regions, at what time scales, and for which agricultural drivers and communities?At what time horizon does a shift occur from forecasts to scenarios?What are the most appropriate analysis and communication methods, and what can we adopt from the seasonal and climate change scenarios communities?What kinds of adaptation and risk reduction methods in the agriculture and food sector would be appropriate on these timescales? Who are the beneficiaries of multi-year climate data, what are their information needs and to what extent can these needs be met?
- 4. Fit to CCAFS AgendaScience integration – climate and climate applications, hydrology, agriculture, policy and planning…Development – climate compatible development, disaster risk reductionClimate change agenda – critical timescale gapAgriculture and food – addresses climate as a driver of production, GDP, livelihoods, and planning agricultural adaptationProvide critical information for CG researchersWill link to multiple stakeholders – applied research, policy and planning, industry and farmersDeliver data - using state-of-art methods – on CG-relevant climate change and variability on timescales of 1-20 (30) years