Project analysis and advanced data calculation and conditional formatting
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This document discusses using Excel to simulate project risks and calculate project durations under uncertainty. It describes using Monte Carlo simulation to assign probabilistic durations to project activities, calculate early and late start/finish dates, and determine the project duration and float for multiple simulations. The results are analyzed to determine the best, most likely, and worst case project durations based on the simulations. Advanced data analysis techniques like two-way tables, conditional formatting, and data tables are demonstrated for calculating project profits and costs under different input assumptions.
Project analysis and advanced data calculation and conditional formatting
- 1. PROJECT SIMULATION AND ADVANCED DATA CALCULATION IN EXCEL Dr. Chachrist Srisuwanrat สาขาวิชาการบริหารงานก่อสร้าง คณะวิศวกรรมศาสตร์และสถาปัตยกรรมศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีราชมงคลตะวันออก วิทยาเขตอุเทนถวาย
- 2. Topics • Project Risk Analysis using Simulation • Determine project duration under uncertainty • Plot density and cumulative distribution of project duration • Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting • Construct “Two-way Table” • Apply “Conditional Formatting” 2
- 3. Project Risk Analysis using Simulation 3
- 6. Use constant duration to verify formula 6
- 7. Forward Calculation (ESD, EFD) • ESDj = MAX( EFDi ) • ESDj = ESDj + DURj 7
- 8. Backward Calculation (LSD, LFD) • LFDj = MIN(LSDk) • LSDj = LFDj - DURj 8
- 9. Float Calculation (TF) • TF = LFD – EFD • Is Critical = if(TF = 0, 1, 0) 9
- 10. Apply probabilistic duration • Copy code in “Duration Description” to Duration column • Note: your numbers will be different because of randomization. Press F9 to view change. 10
- 11. So what is the project duration??? Best case? Most likely? Worst case? 11
- 12. Use “Home->Fill->Series” to create project-duration collection table 12
- 13. Use “What-If Analysis->Data Table” to collect data (project duration) 13
- 14. Use “countif” function to count project durations that are less than or equal to 14
- 15. Plot Graph 15
- 16. Construct Is-Critical Table for Activities to collect probability of being critical Collection 2,000 data points Using Fill->Series What-If Analysis->Data Table 16
- 17. Use “Data->What-If Analysis->Data Table” to collect 2,000 Is-Critical data points 17
- 18. CountIf to determine %Critical 18
- 20. Do you? • Believe A-B-E-G almost being critical half of the time? • Know that A-D-G could be critical? • Think all 3 paths could be critical at the same time? • Worst duration could be TWICE of best duration? 20
- 21. BREAK 21
- 22. Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting 22
- 23. Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting • Main calculation table • Two-way Table • Text function • Conditional Formatting 23
- 24. Simple Example: Land Cost Valuation and %Profit • Land Size 3 rais with Cost 200,000 Baht/sq.w. • FAR = 3 • NFA/GFA = 65% • Construction Cost 17,000 Baht/sq.m. • Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10% of (Land and Construction Cost) • Sale Price 75,000 Baht/sq.m. • What is the %Profit? 24
- 26. Two-way Table Example: Land Cost Valuation and %Profit • Land Size 3 rais with Cost 180,000 to 220,000 Baht/sq.w. • FAR = 3 • NFA/GFA = 65% • Construction Cost 17,000 Baht/sq.m. • Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10% of (Land and Construction Cost) • Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m. • What is the %Profit for each combination of Land Cost and Sale Price? 26
- 27. Construct Two-way Table • Land Cost 180,000 to 220,000 Baht/sq.w. • Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m. 27
- 29. After click OK and Formatting cells 29
- 30. Add Desired %Profit and Minimum Required %Profit for Conditional Formatting Only 30
- 32. Select J5->Format Painter • Select J5 • Click Format Painter • Crop cells in the table for formatting 32
- 33. Conditional Formatting for Minimum Required %Profit 33
- 35. Now you can also change and study • NFA/GFA from 65% to 60% • Construction Cost from 17,000 to 18,000 Baht/sq.m. • Mgmt & Mkt Cost from 10% to 15% 35
- 36. Comparison 36
- 38. Simulated Table Example: Expected, Max, Min %Profit • Land Cost 190,000 to 210,000 Baht/sq.w. • NFA/GFA = 60-70% • Construction Cost 17,000-21,000 Baht/sq.m. • Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10-15% of (Land and Construction Cost) • Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m. • What is the %Profit: • Expected • Max • Min 38
- 39. 39
- 41. Data Table runs and collects 10,000 data of %Profit 41
- 42. Let’s get Land Cost, NFA/GFA, Construction Cost, Mgmt&Mkt Cost, and Sale Price 42
- 44. ORIGINAL Land Cost 190,000 to 210,000 Baht/sq.w. NFA/GFA = 60-70% Construction Cost 17,000 to 21,000 Baht/sq.m. Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10 to 15% of (Land and Construction Cost) Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m. DESIRED Land Cost 190,000 to 200,000 Baht/sq.w. NFA/GFA = 60-70% Construction Cost 17,000 to 18,000 Baht/sq.m. Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10-15% of (Land and Construction Cost) Sale Price 70,000 to 85,000 Baht/sq.m. 44
- 45. Example: Very Difficult Problem • A group of consultant agrees to manage and sell a land. • This land has 18 rais. • They will be spited to 4 to 6 plots. • These 4-6 plots will be sold at • Plot 1: 190,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 4 rais or not at all • Plot 2: 200,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3 rais or not at all • Plot 3: 200,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3 • Plot 4: 210,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3 • Plot 5: 210,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3 • Plot 6: 200,000 or 210,000 Baht/rais depending on remaining land • In the end, all 18 rais must be sold. (continue next page) 45
- 46. Continue • Consulting Fee 2% of all sale • Performance Fee 15% of land sold above 195,000 Baht/rais • If using sale agents, consultant must pay them 1% of the land price sold by agents • Probabilities: • Plot 1 has 50% chance to be sold at this price or not at all • Plot 2 has 50% chance to be sold at this price or not at all • If sold, size of land (2, 3, or 4 rais depending), which is sold, has equal chance (uniform distribution) • There is 50% chance using sale agents in each plot 46
- 47. Questions • What is the expected, max, min of: • Land price per sq.w.? • Net owner revenue after all fees in Baht? • Net consulting + performance fees Baht? • Absolute commission calculated from consulting + performance fees in percent? • Sale agent commission in Baht? 47
- 48. Calculation Table with Random Formula 48
- 49. Simulated Table with 30,000 Replications 49
- 50. Summary 50
- 51. Density and Cumulative Function of Consultant Revenue 51
- 52. Consultant Revenue upon Number of rais (0-18 rais) sold by Sale Agents 52
- 53. WHAT IF??? The consultant have already sold 3 rais at 200,000 Baht/sq.w. via sale agents Can he increase number of rais to be sold at 190,000 Baht/rai? If Yes, how many? 53
- 54. THANK YOU Dr. Chachrist Srisuwanrat สาขาวิชาการบริหารงานก่อสร้าง คณะวิศวกรรมศาสตร์และสถาปัตยกรรมศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีราชมงคลตะวันออก วิทยาเขตอุเทนถวาย